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-   -   What are the odds of KC drafting specific players? (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=226251)

Ming the Merciless 04-10-2010 10:18 AM

Berry 30%
D williams 23%
Bulaga 17%
T williams 15%
Clausen 5%
Anyone else 10% (also I can add this onto any player to claim 'i knew it all along' and make myself look smarter after the draft)

edited my numbers a tad for the **** of it

Nightfyre 04-10-2010 01:23 PM

Trade Down - 30%
Clausen - 25%
Berry - 30%
D. Williams - 15%

Ming the Merciless 04-10-2010 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 6664543)
Trade Down - 30%
Clausen - 25%
Berry - 30%
D. Williams - 15%


I would love to think that a trade down is 30% with the #5 overall....But a trade of a top 5 pick is pretty rare from what I understand....

It would be sick to trade down a few spots and still be in the top 10...

threebag 04-10-2010 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pawnmower (Post 6664264)
Odds of you sucking that same players nuts and making a post in a few months telling everyone how 'you knew he would be a stud":

Incredibly also 99.9%

ROFL ^^^

Nightfyre 04-10-2010 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pawnmower (Post 6664562)
I would love to think that a trade down is 30% with the #5 overall....But a trade of a top 5 pick is pretty rare from what I understand....

It would be sick to trade down a few spots and still be in the top 10...

I didnt specify that we would get good value out of a trade down.

Ming the Merciless 04-10-2010 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 6664748)
I didnt specify that we would get good value out of a trade down.

I didn't even mention value....Trading the #5 pick is pretty rare (has it only happened once in the history of the draft?)...

If you are trying to say there is a 30% chance we will trade down just to get more picks without regard the value of them...I would disagree. IF we make a trade we are going to get a good value in terms of picks. Otherwise there is no point in trading the pick.

Gary 04-10-2010 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patteeu (Post 6664237)
Mine aren't arbitrary. Mine are based on extensive discussions with Chiefs coaches and player personnel guys and a phone call to a telepsychic who helped me understand what the 4 teams ahead of the Chiefs are planning to do. My numbers reflect the infighting that is still going on at Chiefs HQ and the likelihood that any given advocacy group will eventually prevail.

You could have just called 1-800-ask-gary

Nightfyre 04-10-2010 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pawnmower (Post 6665025)
I didn't even mention value....Trading the #5 pick is pretty rare (has it only happened once in the history of the draft?)...

If you are trying to say there is a 30% chance we will trade down just to get more picks without regard the value of them...I would disagree. IF we make a trade we are going to get a good value in terms of picks. Otherwise there is no point in trading the pick.

I could see how you would think that way if you had never listened to Pioli's approach to the draft. He doesn't look at the value chart. He looks at the players who will be available.

RustShack 04-10-2010 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pawnmower (Post 6664264)
Odds of you sucking that same players nuts and making a post in a few months telling everyone how 'you knew he would be a stud":

Incredibly also 99.9%

:stupid:

Mr. Laz 04-10-2010 05:49 PM

Eric Berry - 30%
Jimmy Clauson - 25%
Trent Williams - 20%(can play both OT spots is huge)
Dan Williams - 12%
Russell Okung - 12%
Brian Bulaga - 1%

threebag 04-10-2010 07:42 PM

H5N1 just laughing at something funny but the NEG must mean the truth hurts. Go have a coors light.

milkman 04-10-2010 07:43 PM

What are the odds of KC drafting specific players?
 
100%

Ebolapox 04-10-2010 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by threebag02 (Post 6665286)
H5N1 just laughing at something funny but the NEG must mean the truth hurts. Go have a coors light.

did you see the smiley? it was done in jest. and **** coors light.

Rain Man 04-10-2010 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoChiefs (Post 6664207)
You can't assign arbitrary numbers to players like this. It has zero basis in reality.

My process isn't as evidence-based as patteeu's, but nonetheless I'm basing them on a Monte Carlo simulation model that examines combinations of potential choices based on past behavior and quantified media reports.

threebag 04-10-2010 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by H5N1 (Post 6665350)
did you see the smiley? it was done in jest. and **** coors light.

I hear the **** COORS light. It was also said in jest. I was always told coors light will make your asshole hurt.


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