Originally Posted by kccrow
(Post 16238551)
I hear you. I'm equally torn and doing the mock was an exercise to let go of my conditioning to be more reserved.
Here's what I think
1) Despite everyone's hopes and dreams, you're not getting any of the top 5 pass rushers unless you're trading up into the teens or better. I just don't feel it's remotely even within the realm of hope to think teams are going to pass on these guys and they drop to the late 20s because there are far too many teams that need them.
2) The dropoff between that tier of DEs and the next tier of DEs is monumental. That's not to say I'm not high on Cam Thomas and Sam Williams because I am, but they are much rawer. Beyond those guys, I see even more raw or non-schematic fits. At that point, you're not getting an immediate return on investment and the Chiefs desperately need it.
3) There are a few DTs I'd be happy with. I fully expect Veach is going to go up for Wyatt but if he doesn't I'd love to see Travis Jones in play for one of the picks. I think Jones is right there in terms of ability. Maybe he's not as explosive as a pass rusher but he would be a significant upgrade over Nnadi at NT. I do think they are looking at Wyatt to replace Jones eventually if I'm being honest.
4) If we're not moving up for an ER, I'm not overly enamored with any WR to trade up and, like DE, one of those top 4 isn't falling to 29/30. I don't like Burks enough to spend a 1st and I think it's a reach to take any of Skyy Moore, George Pickens, Christian Watson, or Jahan Dotson in the first. I'm EXTREMELY enamored with Jalen Tolbert though. I don't see him going in 1 either, I think he could be there at 50 and it's more about the level of competition. When I look at his athletic profile, his routes, his hands, and so on, it compares really favorably to some really good WRs throughout recent history and those are Reggie Wayne, Torry Holt, Stefon Diggs, and Jeremy Maclin. If I'm going to reach for a WR in round 1, he's the guy I'd do it for. I don't just think he's going to be good, I think he's going to be special. After him, it's Pickens for me.
So if we're not moving up, I just don't see DE or WR being in play at 29/30 in terms of actual value. I think they have more value at 50 and 62. There might be value at DT. I'd actually think the value will end up being at CB and S. This place would go absolutely nuts if Veach doesn't address either of the perceived biggest needs on the team with either 1st round pick even if that might mean getting a couple of really good players like Jalen Pitre and Kaiir Elam or similar.
If I'm being honest with myself, I'd probably be a little jaded too. I'd much rather see Veach send 29 and 30 away to get up high. Theoretically speaking, 29, 30, 121, and 233 can get you to #7 overall using the Rich Hill chart. I'd much rather that and get a guy like Trayvon Walker than sit at 29 and 30 and get no impact player on the defensive line for 2022. That simply cannot happen IMO.
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