This roster isn’t extremely strong after the first 35-40 roster slots.

I don’t think I agree with Nate on this.

I'm almost always good for a good trade down but with WR and DE contracts that 5th year becomes huge. It would have to be a lot to trade down IMO.

To be honest, I'm too lazy to count up the current roster and see.

If they do only take 8 rookies this year, its still not as bad as it sounds going into 2023 with 30 players on the roster, because they currently have 9 picks in the 2023 draft, plus that figure is before tags, ERFA, RFA, new free agents, the 1 year deals some positions are always going to be filled by (fullback, for example).

I do generally like trade backs, but I guess I am hoping for a mix, trade up with those 7s, move back and collect an extra 3, end up with 10 rookies this year?

This.. I would rather reach at the end of the first then trade down to 38 and lose a cheap year under contract.

Bit of a fallacy, the 5th year is often not that cheap.

You're high if you think Jones and Clark are staying around a 30m cap hit each and Pats hit remains at 50.

The cap space can easily be flipped to over 100m with some logical moves. Your doom and gloom is a non-factor.

While this is true, remember if the player is good enough to exercise the 5th year option, its still cheaper than signing him to a second contract. Gives the team leverage as well.

I have experimented with the concept of trading down as follows, and enjoyed the mock experience:

Pick 29, 2023R1, 2023R4 with NYJ for 35, 38, 69, 2023R3 (Rich Hill trade valuation model indicates this trade favors the Chiefs by roughly the value of pick 109)
Pick 30, 2024R1 with SEA for 40, 41, 72, 109, 2023R3 (Rich Hill trade valuation model indicates this trade favor the Chiefs by roughly the value of pick 113)

There could be competition for QBs at the end of R1, and I feel the fifth year option attached to R1 picks requires a tad of premium.

Given the depth of the class, this adds a load of starters or potential starters to the roster.

I have attached a sample draft to illustrate the scenario in another way :) (I only ran 4 rounds.)

BossChief has been trading down and making 20 picks in his mock draft simulators, so he’s convinced the Chiefs making that many picks makes sense.

Yep. Clark is almost assuredly a cut in '23 and I think Jones gets moved or extended and restructured. With the Chiefs looking so hard at Wyatt, it does make one wonder if they intend to move on from Jones sooner rather than later.

I don’t have a single one with that many unless it was for fun and labeled as such. That said, I won’t be surprised if we make 10 picks or as high as 14…depending on how things fall. The whole overall number of picks is skewed because 4 picks are in the 7th round and hold little to no value in trade ups and have only basic utility value outside of drafting guys that will possibly be placed on pup and IR like the lBer from LSU, as one example.

When I trade back in the simulators, I usually balance the amount of picks out to keep the total number reasonable (10-12) while adding more picks in the second and third rounds because that’s where I feel the meat and orators of this draft are.

In the real draft, I feel the most likely scenario is for us to move up a few slots from 29 and then move a few slots down from 30 to recoup the pick we used to move up. Like picking at 24 and 37 while moving up a couple slots in the second and third.

No doom and gloom involved. I’m more optimistic than most of how the next 3-4 years will play out because I trust the 3 headed monster of Andy, Pat and Brett.

Frank will be gone and Jones will get another extension or he will be traded. Depending on what he does in 2022.

Not everyone will agree, but I think this draft has more talent than most and this team can set itself up nicely by filling out this roster with guys from this class.

If we are able to get 5-6 contributors from this class, that will allow us to take some big swings in FA the next 3-4 years while retaining our own guys that we chose to keep. Veach likes those kinds of offseasons, obviously…look at the big deals he gives out every offseason.

And realistically, they probably should. Let some other team buy high on CJ and get the DL younger.

Traditionally what I said stands to be true. Yes first round picks are a crap shoot. No. Reek wasn't taken #1 overall. Your examples are anomalies. We got lucky with Tyreek falling for off field conduct. First round picks (or closer to the first round) are generally more talented players. As someone else said this draft might have several solid players from the middle rounds. That still doesn't refute the fact that the talent level is higher to those that are typically drafted at or near the first round.

Careful, you're showing your age with the Madden reference (which made no sense btw).

Now say something more intelligent please. Regarding the actual topic.