So you mean to tell me Devin Hester will get in almost immediately for only RETURNING kicks, a very small percentage of those kicks for actual touchdowns, but the actual kickers with game winning kicks constantly, won't.

I agree that it's odd, especially considering kickers decide about 1/4 of the points scored in a game on average and most of the top 30 players in points scored every year are... you guessed it... kickers.

Buttttttttttt....

The NFL is, at least currently, oversaturated with talent at the position. We're in a time where the margin between the top of the heap and the average is approximately 3% or 1 FG made per season. A bad kicker will still make 70% and the average is near 85%. It's really hard to distinguish the worthiness of the position, even as vital as it may be. There is just so little consistency when you look at quantifiable data to support an argument that one kicker is more deserving than another.

I think it takes a truly special kicker to even elicit conversation. Justin Tucker just might end up that guy, but I'm not sure if there are many you can make an argument for. Tucker is one of the few that have been consistently great for a long stretch without bouncing down around the mean.

Times have changed. Stenarud got in having made only about two thirds of his kicks. In the 1971 Christmas game it shouldn't have been that big a shock he missed three of four. He was only about 50 percent beyond 20 yards that year and 60 percent overall. 75 percent led the league back then. Interestingly his numbers went way up at the end of his long career. Maybe the artificial surfaces and domes helped?

Hash marks were further apart and the goal post was at the front of the end zone. You could get severe angles on short kicks.

They narrowed the hash marks and moved the goal post to the back of the end zone in the mid 70s (the latter part of Stenerud's career). FG success went up dramatically league-wide.

That's part of the story, but there weren't any indoor stadiums. No nice, clean Astroturf. The grass fields were often nothing more than dirt by the end of the season.

Obviously oversimplifying the position, but it’s really one of the more controlled position in sports. There’s not a lot of overthinking out there. Weather is different. Turfs are different. But there are only so many curveballs the other team will throw at the kicker. It’s being very consistent with mechanics and having balls of steel. Hard to place them on the same standard as skill positions that need lots of strategy. Also, a big part of the HOF is durability and I’d assume players who put their body through a decade+ of constant abuse would resent having their spot taken away from a kicker who keeps their jersey clean 9 times out of 10.

A lot of HOF voting considers not what life would be like with a bad kicker. But with an average or good kicker. It’s going to hurt to move from Justin tucker to your standard 85% kicker but it’s not nearly as devastating as losing kelce. A lot of good kickers will still be at that league average even in the clutch too. So the bar has gotten higher simply because all kickers have gotten way better.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/ex...icks-1985-2019

Here’s something interesting. Who are the best clutch kickers of the modern era? % wise it’s not who you’d expect and most of these guys aren’t HOFers.

Tucker probably makes it

I think so too... Megatron says Butker will be considered also. :eek:

Most kickers, as in 90% of them, have pretty short careers. I think I read somewhere they average about 2.7 years. So longevity is definitely a consideration.

Obviously, accuracy, consistency, stats in general are important.

And when you consider that Butker will probably be kicking in PT/playoff games for the remainder of his career so long as he's a Chief and Mahomes is the QB, however long that will be. Say it's 8 more years. Multiply out his current stats for the last 6 years (go ahead and include this year even though it's not complete, even pretend he doesn't make a kick in the playoffs for 2022, I don't care), by say 2.3 or whatever. That should be around 14 years. Check those numbers against those PKs already in the HOF. Then project his numbers in the playoffs (so far Butker's more consistent/clutch in the playoffs).

Just statistically, Butker could make it. Probably should make it.

But optics for PKs is just as important, and he's going to have a lot of opportunities as the Chiefs PK to show off on national TV. if he is only as consistent as he has been so far in those 'clutch' moments for the rest of his career, he'll have a strong argument for getting in.

And note that he doesn't have to play any better than he has over the last 6 years. he doesn't have to improve significantly in any part of his game. Just keep posting 89% accuracy for the next 8+ years and in the playoffs, and he'll be in the conversation.

In Jan's case at least don't think that's it. Here's his numbers, total FG percent to the right. Doesn't get better until 81 kicking for GNB of all places.

What do you fellas think of Vinateri's chances of being a first ballot hall of famer? No brainer or does it take a couple tries for him to get into the HOF?

Considering how dominant he was at his position he should be first ballot. Just think about how many championship games that guy won...

And again, since I keep getting misquoted,

I SAID THAT BUTKER COULD GET IN, NOT THAT HE WOULD GET IN.

There's a difference.