there would be a lot of folks losing jobs if this scenario plays out lol.....

EDIT: Couldn't find a way to squeeze the Jets and Jags in either? JK....both are out

I'm really rooting for the WFT, win that div!! They'll def beat Pit, & 'cuz Chiefs it won't affect the try for bye.
I think Pit also loses one to either Buf or Ind.

I’ll have to take a mulligan on the Cardinals. They have fallen off the map.

Bump for all your tie breaking scenario explorations.

ESPN Playoff Machine
 

A very possible tie breaker is common opponents which are the Broncos, Texans, Ravens, and Bills. So a loss to the Bills all but guarantees the Chiefs get the bye if the win their two AFC games. In that scenario the Chiefs would have to go 13-3 to lose the bye.

Here’s where the Saints game is still very important. It helps our strength of victory a lot if we can beat them, and that could very easily wind up being the tiebreaker.

If you lose to the Saints, you root for Miami, LAC, and Atlanta to win all their other games and improve the Chiefs SOV.

Yep.

The most important game left is the Steelers against Buffalo. If Buffalo wins that game, we have the #1 pretty much tied up.

After that, the most important games are Chiefs/Saints and Steelers/Browns. If the Steelers lose to the Browns, that will drop their SOV a lot. If we beat the Saints, it raises ours.

When I watch Buffalo I just really feel like they’re a bad matchup for Pittsburgh. A QB who will stretch their defense out downfield and isn’t easy to bring down.

If they can score 24+ they should have a good chance.

Somebody said there's like a 70% chance of rain. That favors Buffalo because Pitt's running game just isn't very good.

Midgets do that.

Raiders aren't going to be a Playoff team; and the Steelers will have 2 more loses.

Winner of dolphins raiders will get the 7th seed

Buff might sneak in as the 2 seed

But does Buffalo run much at all either? I have both their backs in fantasy and they have sucked pretty bad.

They use it to move the chains. Allen himself is probably the most dangerous runner.

Just spent a little time working through scenarios and I can’t stress enough how volatile the KC/PIT tiebreakers can become when you assume both teams go 14-2, but the Chiefs loss comes to an NFC team and the Steelers beat Buffalo.

At that point, we have to root like hell that teams only we have beat, not Pittsburgh, win their matchups. For example, teams like the Patriots, Dolphins (if we win that one), the NFC South, etc. That strength of victory can be flipped so easily. For example, I went through it all, had KC beating everyone but the Saints, had Pittsburgh losing to only Cleveland to see what that would do. It had Pittsburgh ahead, but I went and flipped one game (WAS@CAR) to where Carolina won, and it gave the Chiefs the 1 seed because it improved their SOV.

In other words, this Sunday night’s game at Buffalo could very well decide HFA.

Saints just said there’s no timetable for Brees to return.

Good news, because Taysom Hill can barely play QB.

Yep.

The Buffalo game is by far our clearest path to the #1 seed. After that, the next biggest game is New Orleans because of their record. The only game we can really afford to lose is Atlanta because they're NFC and they have a losing record.

Dude, have you watched them play?

Hill is pretty efficient and running the ball, he's a weapon.

With the Chiefs struggles against the run, he could tear them a new hole.

It won't be an easy game either way.

Sounds like Baltimore’s 1st string running back.

I don't know man. Hill is fast AND big. He's not Lamar Jackson.

And he can complete an intermediate pass when he needs to, not just when it's open.

They're a REALLY good team, even with Hill.

Timothy Tebow?

I’m just giving you a hard time, Htis. I haven’t watched him yet.

I've seen him play twice. I won't say I'm impressed - he's still got a lot of growing to do - but I can definitely see the Saints being a tough matchup with him at the helm.

Oh for ****sakes!

htismaqe has went full Deberg now! :doh!:

htismaqe’s new hero:

https://media2.giphy.com/media/6znkrqCu1OLVS/giphy.gif

Chiefs now at 57% to get the bye:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...l-predictions/

Seems about right.

And, while it remains to be seen with the new playoff format, most modern SB teams have the benefit of a bye.

You should start a “Taysom Hill or Mahomes” Deberg thread for your new crush. He just put up 78 passing yards against Denver, with a pick.

He’s inexperienced at QB. Our secondary is statistically pretty good at coverage, which lets the D play more guys closer to the LOS to negate his running ability. Spags is great at adaptive scheming, and running isn’t really the way to beat MVPat.

Could we lose the game, sure. We absolutely shouldn’t, however.

yep! you can take the raiders out of choakland but you can't take the choak out of the raiders

If both the Chiefs and Steelers win out (I know unlikely) who would get HFA and the #1 seed?

Steelers - we lost to the AFC - they lost to the NFC (if both win out).

Steelers - we lost to a AFC opponent and they lost to a NFC team

Not that it really means anything, but 538's model give us a 57% chance at the bye, which generally means it thinks the Steelers are gonna drop a game or two.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...l-predictions/

ROFL

You guys are hilarious.

The bottom line here is that their defense is legitimately good. If the Broncos can shut them down like they did, so can the Saints.

The big difference is that they likely won't push the ball with Hill and limit his turnovers. His ability to make plays with his feet can cause problems for the Chiefs defense because you know, Frank Clark ****ing sucks.

Unless that's changed, which is entirely possible because it is CP after all.

Okay what is our Hardest (realistic) route to winning the Super Bowl, and what is our Easiest (realistic) route to winning the Super Bowl?

Will Brees be back by the time we play the Saints?

The easiest route is to win out and have Pittsburgh lose one more game.

Then we get the bye and only have to play 2 playoff games.

It really doesn't get much easier than that.

I meant in terms of the teams we are playing. Definitely subjective, but curious as to the preferred and least preferred paths.

This is a hard question when it comes to the Chiefs because we all know if they just play their B+ game, they’re probably going to beat anyone in the AFC. But they can lose to anybody in there too if they come out making mistakes.

Right now, I think Buffalo is the best AFC team outside of Kansas City if Allen is on. I don’t think Pittsburgh can hang with Kansas City. Cleveland could be dangerous with their run game and ability to rush the passer. Vegas has played us tough but I wouldn’t be afraid of them in a cold round 3 at Arrowhead (Carr in the cold is cheeks). Indy wouldn’t scare me a lot, Tennessee is too depleted to hang with Kansas City. Baltimore probably is too but their defense is good enough that maybe they stay in the game if they somehow pull off a pick 6 or something.

Regular season or playoffs?

Looks like pugs already covered possible playoff matchups.

So I think I fear the Packers the most since they can run the ball and Rogers can may you pay at any time. Frankly, they are the most Chiefs-like team out there. Their D doesn't worry me one bit, it has talent on there, but nothing that makes we really worry.

Mother****.

We lose to a team that doesn't suck.

They lose to a team that sucks.

They have advantage just cuz they are from the NFC. GTFOH with that weak shit NFL.

The only reason I'm a little nervous this season compared to last year is that with ~7 games to go last year, our Defense was shut-down, possibly best in the league.

This season, we are still waiting on that move to the next level on Defense, although the Broncos game was a good start. Minus a few long runs, we were pretty solid. LB play has me worried.

Frank Clark's absence is the biggest issue on Defense, though, in my opinion. Hopefully he can get back to where he was last year at this time and smell blood in the water again.

Red Zone offense is cause for concern as well as short yardage situations strangely enough. DW had some pop at the end of the Broncos game grinding out tough yards but our IOL needs to kick it up a notch.

When/If Schwartz comes back, we can move Remmers inside, and Wis may be an upgrade at Guard as well. Curious to see what shakes out with Kilgore / Reiter at Center.

I know it's hard to believe, but our defense is #6 in the league in points allowed. DVOA has them at #17, which is more where I think we all would place them, but they've found ways to lock it down when it counts.

Washington is playing better than the Raiders right now. If Alex Smith wasn't hurt earlier in the year, they likely win several more games. If not for the Jets' collapse, the Raiders are 6-6. The two teams are trending in opposite directions.

So he's Lamar Jackson.

The Chiefs seem to do well at shutting down Lamar Jackson.

I can see that, with other teams having crazy inconsistency on defense as well. There aren't really any shut-down defenses this year, except maybe the Saints.

While we are light-years ahead of 2018, I think we are a step below where we ended last season.

Would be a huge relief to see us get nasty these last 4 games.

Personally, I welcome an additional Chiefs game.

Okay, this is morbid of me. I really do apologize.

But I don't think Andrew Wylie is getting booted from his starting RG spot unless it's like last year when he got a bit gimpy, then we went with Wisniewski and never looked back.

No, I'm not wishing injury on Wylie. I'm just pointing out that if people think Rankin is all that and a bag of chips or they're confident that Wisniewski can get back what he had last year, there's going to be a significant barrier in the way of them seeing the field, unfortunately.

In another year, maybe... but I love Reid's creativity after the BYE and I also worry about possible fluke injuries that could change the landscape in an instant.

He's not Lamar Jackson. He's much bigger and stronger than Jackson.

Look, I'm not saying he's going to be able to beat the Chiefs.

But the Saints aren't going to be some pushover just because Taysom Hill is starting. They're a VERY good team, regardless of who is playing QB.

Rankin was inactive in favor of Wis this last game, so that should tell us something as well.

You won't if somebody gets hurt.

What is the NFL's plan if a team has a COVID outbreak during the playoffs? Give them a BYE they otherwise wouldn't have received? Push the game until mid-week like they've been doing with regular season games?

I read somewhere that they will likely be doing in-market bubbles. i/e: all the Chiefs players and staff stay at a facility or hotel until they are eliminated.

Side note - something I've always wondered is why don't NFL teams have an Apartment building on-site?

It is a controlled environment, they could set up accommodations however they like with meeting rooms and what not.

Opposing teams could also stay on-site in a safe environment and not have to worry about hotel BS or randos sneaking in at night, pulling the fire alarm, etc...

And is if on queue:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NFLPA executive director DeMaurice Smith says they discussed the idea of “local bubbles” in the playoffs in a recent call with player reps, but no decision yet and it’ll be data-driven. <br><br>Background on the idea NFL officials have been discussing: <a href="https://t.co/yAg1TO3dbu">https://t.co/yAg1TO3dbu</a></p>&mdash; Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) <a href="https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1336390643912990720?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That's a stretch. The Raiders had one major dud, but have also looked very good at times.

Smith can barely complete a pass in that offense.

They gotta do whatever it takes to give the best chance of not losing players to COVID for the playoffs.

You don’t wanna be moving those games around, I’m not sure they even could.

One major dud? Wouldn't both the Atlanta and New York games be major duds? Back-to-back weeks. They're trending down, especially from what I've seen of their defense.

Washington has won three in a row. The two games before the win streak, they lost by three points in each game. Here are Smith's passing stats the last five games:

325 yards vs. New York
390 yards vs. Detroit
166 yards vs. Cincinnati
149 yards vs. Dallas
296 yards vs. Pittsburgh

He's had some low yardage games, but also some impressive showings. They ran the ball well against Dallas and took advantage of turnovers. He didn't need to pass much. In fact, he threw only 51 passes combined in the wins against Dallas and Cincinnati. When he has thrown, I wouldn't say he's having trouble completing "a pass". He certainly wasn't having any trouble in the second half yesterday.

Not really a stretch. Faiders sucked at Atlanta and got boat raced, and played poorly at the Jets and got bailed out by Gregg Williams.

Faiders are not playing well at all right now....they are having their "SuperBowl" hangover...Mahomes and Kelce broke them.

:facepalm:

Smith had nearly 300 yards against the "vaunted" Pittsburgh defense.

The Raiders are paper tigers, as usual.

If the Bills beat the Steelers, the Chiefs basically can finish 14-2 and have the 1 seed as long as that loss is to the Saints.

correct

Or the Falcons.

Or we could just win the next 4 in a row to close out the regular season then go 3-0 in the Playoffs and SB.

7-0 is doable/ :thumb:

Would MUCH prefer to have the bye.

I'm always amazed that people don't see the value in the bye. Even if you think we're 70% likely to win every game (which is pretty generous in the playoffs), getting the bye instantly boosts our chances of winning the Super Bowl by 43%. That's huge (and the benefit only increases if you think we're less than 70% likely to win each game).

60 more minutes of potential injuries too.

Yep and a 2 seed totally different than last year because of the bye, we essentially became the defacto 1 seed after Baltimore lost.

This year home field is nearly worthless so ALL that counts in the bye.

Collective bargaining agreement they have to stay in certain star rated hotels on the road

It's kind of hard to describe a win as a major dud. And there's no reason to believe that Vegas is suddenly a vastly different team than the one that handed the Chiefs their only loss in 20 or whatever games, then nearly pulled it off again. Or that beat the best team in the NFC by double digits. Do you see Washington being capable of doing those things? Be honest.

Yes, Smith threw for 390 awhile ago. On 55 attempts. With 0 TDs. Yes, he threw for 325 as well. With 3 picks.

He has 4 TDs and 5 picks on the year.

I wouldn't say he's done anything overly impressive this year. The Pittsburgh game was probably his best overall, and even then, he checked down on every throw in the first half. Luckily, he's got a very good D that continuously shut the opposing team down and set him up with good field position.

Maybe people just have faith in Mahomes and the staff?

Worrying non-stop about the bye seems like a very pre-Mahomes era thing to do. Especially with little to no home field advantage this year.

Putting "vaunted" in quotes just helps to prove my point for me. Their defense is overrated. The Chiefs had the best defensive numbers in the league in the second half of last season, due mostly to competition. Amazing what it can do for your numbers to face Garrett Gilbert, Jeff Driskel, Daniel Jones, RG3, Jake Luton, etc.

Smith made a couple nice throws amidst a sea of checkdowns. Got a lot of YAC on a few of those checkdowns. His team punted or turned it over on downs on 8 of their first 10 drives for God's sake. And barely moved the ball at all on those possessions. He's lucky he wasn't down by 3+ TDs at that point.

Mahomes doesn't overcome injuries. Playing an extra game is just playing with fire.

Updated predictions after going through final 3 weeks of the playoff machine:

Wild Card:

Saints (2) over Cardinals (7) Although this has upset potential
Rams (3) over Seahawks (6)
Tampa Bay (5) over Washington (4)

Bills (2) over Browns (7)
Ravens (6) over Steelers (3)
Colts (5) over Titans (4)

Divisional:
Rams (3) over Saints (2)
Green Bay (1) over Tampa Bay (5) I think TB would have a good shot but give GB the edge b/c of bye and cold weather...

Chiefs (1) over Ravens (6)
Bills (2) over Colts (5)

Conference:
Green Bay (1) over Rams (3) Weather again the deciding factor for me
Chiefs (1) over Bills (2)

SB LV:
Chiefs (1) over Packers (1)

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/J9UEexoKmQg" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

I bet Peter King like an Internal Disruptor!

I like it! fingers crossed! :thumb:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">So Chiefs can clinch AFC&#39;s top playoff seed and the first-round playoff bye this weekend. Broncos over Bills, Bengals over Steelers and Chiefs over Saints would be quite a trifecta, though. <a href="https://t.co/z26LwXgt4G">https://t.co/z26LwXgt4G</a></p>&mdash; Adam Teicher (@adamteicher) <a href="https://twitter.com/adamteicher/status/1338864277520695306?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 15, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>