Whether that's the same offense you were envisioning or not, the total passing yardage numbers from '09 match the previous 5 years. Basically, if it's backs gaining the yac or the receivers, the QB production for a full season under Reid seems to result in somewhere between 4000 and 4250 yards.

So maybe the bar should be set higher than 3500, assuming we're talking about Smith playing a full 16...

So when predicting a players numbers should we put more importance on the coach's history with other players or the player in questions history?...

Gotta be a combination of both.

(If we're going to get in the prediction game, mine is that Alex Smith maxes out around 3750 yards, based on his history.)

However, Andy Reid knows his offense better than anyone, that offense usually generates 4000+ yards from the QB position, he badly wanted Alex Smith to run it and he's spoken about him in glowing terms for weeks. So the question would now be whether or not the expectations for the player should reflect the attributes of the coach...

I would say "yes". Andy Reid clearly thinks the world of Alex Smith. If this was a Herm Edwards team, 3500 yards has a different look. But it's not. Reid loves to throw the ball.

(We've seen it already in the Steelers preseason game, with Smith and Daniel combining for 48 passes and 280ish yards...)

If Smith can reach 4K Phat Andy needs a raise...

the player , especially with 7 years of different coaching as a 'body of work'

I think people are over thinking it when they imagine ALex smith getting 4500 yards but hey...I would love to be wrong....I would orgasm.

I agree completely.

I hope I'm making clear the difference between expectations and what I actually believe is going to happen. I don't believe he can be a consistent 4000 yard passer. However, I do believe that's what Andy Reid brought him in to be. And I think whether this ends up being a good trade or not depends on whether or not he becomes what Reid envisions.

/thread

You really nailed it.

He just really wants acceptance from this board so he's starting to tinge his posts with negativity towards Smith hoping it will make people here like him, but it won't.

Good point. Maybe it should be set higher. Thanks for doing the math earlier.

Wins and a postseason victory

Other than that awful completion percentage(no. freaking. way. he chucks up a casselian 56%)... i'm with the OP.

Get that percentage up around 65 and that sounds about right... he will probably surpass his previous yardage totals with "fire away" Reid.

You can argue the merits of a player and other such things, but yeah... Do Not argue with Sorter about what a certain defensive front is designed to do or looks like or anything about offensive scheme either.

Dude is a football encyclopedia, the best one here, and that's saying quite a lot.

I have to laugh at this. So now the Alex Smith fans are attacking me because I stated the truth, and Clay hates me because im an Alex Smith ball washer who cant heap his praise enough.

Lol.

So this is what the middle feels like.

I don't mean to attack you.. but what AlexSmithDynasty said on the previous page does have to be considered. One minute, you suggest that Smith is a good quarterback... and the next, you suggest that your money goes to him being a stop-gap and quickly replaced?

your words...

So, seriously... is this a multiple personality disorder that I/we should know about?

No. Its just that people haven't been listening to me. I don't understand why stating obvious concerns makes me any less of an Alex Smith guy.

Having doubts that Alex Smith can be the guy that can throw the ball more the team runs and be successful. I just haven't seen it. Again. While people hated the style that Alex ran in San Francisco, I loved it.

Just like when I go to a baseball game, I enjoy a pitchers duel far more than a homerun parade.

See the difference?

And, as far as Bray goes. Havent we seen this before?

Young qb gets mentored, and then Alex gets dumped?

I don't have this delusion that it cant happen. I could see it very well happen again.

He hasn't been extended. Im just prepared for all scenarios.....

If he throws the ball at the historical Andy Reid pace, he should have more yards than he's ever had. More attempts means more yards obviously
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Well that's my concern though. More yards probably means the Chiefs are trailing more.

Maybe, maybe not. Too early to know that. Reid has never shown himself to be a conservative grind it out on the ground guy. He throws in all situations regardless of score.
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Why does one mean the other?

Drew Brees threw for nearly 5.5k yards in 2011 and they won 13 games. AS throwing more doesn't necessarily equate to the Chiefs trailing. It could simply be the end result of the change of the Chiefs offensive philosophy.

He has to throw 35 TD's, 4,500 yards, 70% completion percentage and 10 rushing TD's for this to be a good trade.

/clay followers

In Reid's offense, he should put up close to 4000 yards

all 16 games started w/no injury
ROFL

You aren't on the niners board anymore
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Look it up your goddamn self.
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No one is demanding that you make absolute statements about him. We ALL have some level of doubts about how he will perform. But when you throw around comments like " I'd bet hard that he will be quickly replaced"... man... oh but no. You are definitely playing both sides of the fence here... and there's only one reason why that would be.

Not condemning you here... just suggesting you think about things a bit and figure out what you are about here.

This is slowly turning into a Niner forum. And we already had a stat prediction thread for Smith. L2Search.

Im in the middle. Like I have always been. I only got painted as this super Alex lover because of Kaepernick, and Clay.

I have always been very reasonable about Alex Smith.

Efficient, smart, doesn't take risks, defers all accolades to his teammates, teacher, mentor, leader.

Doesn't really scare a defense. Wont turn the ball over, but really wont go for the home run.

This is just truth. It doesn't affect how I feel about Alex Smith.

Sorry. I don't have to be the OH HE SUCKZ, or the, OH HE DA GREATESTZ

I prefer the middle.

Put us all on ignore if you can't help but be a xenophobic pussy. Or feel free to just talk KC football, and see which if any of us can intelligently do the same.

Well, correct. But, the 34th pick which the 49ers got, no one knew who was taken there without looking it up.

That's my point about draft picks being overblown.

Actually the 49ers also got a 3rd round pick next year and a 7th rounder this year for Alex Smith.
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Titans got Justin Hunter. 49ers got Tank.
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If you really think none if us knew who went at 34 without looking it up you are far more stupid than I ever thought.

Please remove your head from your ass.

Shit like this is why people get pissed at you, its disrespectful.
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If Smith is getting 3,500 yards, he is going to have to have a higher % than that unless the offense in preseason was just them screwing around. 220 ypg with that type of offense at 56% isn't very likely. Even at 30 passes per game that's 12.9 yards per completion.

you are disrespected because I said that people didn't know who the 34th pick in the draft was?

Especially when it wasn't the Chiefs pick, or didn't even end up being the 49ers pick?

My bad.

Ask me who the 38th pick in the draft was.

I HAVE NO ****ING CLUE......

We have draft threads for next year dude. a, lot of us keep up with things.
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all in all, the point is that the compensation to me, is overblown. Wasn't mean to be disrespectful. I forget who said it but some analyst, I think it might of been Todd McShay says and its true, that the pick is only valuable, until the pick is announced.

That's the case I was trying to make. Not trying to ruffle feathers and piss people off.

Most of us had been thinking about who we could get at that spot for a while. Most Chief fans that follow the team closely, especially the ones that were not in love with the Smith trade, were waiting to see who would be there at #34. There was an emotional connection to that pick. Whether you would know who was at 38 is irrelevant because you didn't spend an offseason thinking about who to get there followed by giving it up for a player you weren't thrilled about, especially for that high of a pick.

Understood. Again, not trying to insult, or piss anyone off. The draft was 5 months ago, the pick is gone.

that's all. No offense meant

D Bowe is a pretty similar player to Crabtree. Charles is a better pass catcher than Gore, however, you don't have a TE remotely close to Vernon Davis' ability.

Michael Crabtree is a YAC machine. A top 5 wideout in terms of strict YAC ability. The **** are you talking about, idiot?

never forget

Been there, done that, didn't make a bit of difference in the end.

Crabtree was last season... was much better in 2012 than 2011... but wasn't really on the map prior to that. Crabtree really did get much better as the years progressed. All he ever had to do was practice with the team and put the work in. He finally began to do that under the Harbaugh regime.

Old fart, I'm not talking to you. You're the same kinda guy that was calling for Crabtree's release while giving years 7 and 8 to your golden boy throwing checkdown after checkdown. So sorry, but your opinion is rather worthless to me.

you mad, bro?

don't like what I am saying? put me on ignore and go **** yourself. :)

Why is there the word 49ers in your handle?

25 Td's seems like a lot. Fasano's probably going to be your leading receiver so 3500 seems like a lot as well.

His completion pct will probably be in the mid 60's though.

If that turns out to be true, we're in deep shit

He LOVES that tight end. But maybe he'll find another target.

Tough to say until they put something on film.

If Casshole can find Bowe enough to get him 1000 yards, I'm positive beyond a shadow of a doubt that Smith can too. Make no mistake, Bowe will lead the team in receptions

I predict Charles will lead the team in receptions. Not j/k

Maybe. Don't be surprised if your boy doesn't get the ball as much as you think.