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Does Alex Smith deserve a extension after this season?
(https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=279424)
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Everyones teeth gnashing is pointless anyway, Reid wants the guy and he'll get his extension... Axl will be reasonable in his demands in return for the security of knowing he's "the man" somewhere imo. |
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Yes or we can shop for loser qb that has no experience or is a bust
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His play his year has been inconsistent at best. For those who say 'omg why risk him walking', well, why risk any player walking, should we resign every inconsistent fan favorite before the contract is up? Not to mention, if he plays well again next year, on his NINE MILLION dollar contract, and he doesn't want to resign? I don't see that happening, and if it does, oh well. Franchise him if hes that good. (hes not) |
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Losing any of those games would be a warning sign to me. I'd rather not enter the playoffs at 13-3, just like you, for superstitious purposes. |
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Talking about extending Alex Smith's contract now is just as idiotic as calling him "Alex Smiff" and insisting that he's a terrible quarterback.
How about letting the entire season play out (including the playoffs) and THEN deciding? |
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I will try and divert my QB concerns to who the hell will be #2 and #3. Anything else is truely wasted time, IMO.
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Only if an extension saves us money to lock up other players like h-town.
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I began the season with, not a hatred of the move, but a firm dislike. The guy has won me over. He hasn't done so because he's lighting up the scoreboard and putting up an insane qb rating...he's done so because of his nonchalant, straight-to-business demeanor. He's effective enough for our team to win games. Not only that, but I think he's shown that he can be effective in the passing game when throwing the ball downfield over the past month.
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We aren't going to be in draft position, nor is there really an obvious prospect anyway, in the 2014 draft. So we're looking at the 2015 draft for a 1st round QB if Alex Smith isn't playing at a high level, and then maybe 2016 before that new QB would/should starting.
There's no reason why we can't sign Alex Smith to something cap-friendly that runs through 2016. |
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I posted this earlier this year. Hopefully, someday it will no longer apply. Step 1: Acquire another team's backup QB to be your new starter. Point to his potential and ability to be a leader and keep the team in games. Ignore his inability to WIN games. Step 2: With 1st-round pick, insist there is no QB worthy of that high pick and that it is best to wait until later in the draft and get a similar QB at better value. - 2A: After all worthwhile QBs go off the board between 1st and 2nd round picks, again point to value and draft BPA. - 2B: Continue 2A until drafting a Ricky Stanzi/Pat Barnes in Round 5 or later Step 3: Say you will wait until next year to draft a QB in the 1st and develop a franchise guy. Step 4: Slog to somewhere between 7-10 wins and talk up how "competitive" your season was and how "close" the team is. Step 5: When next year comes, watch in feigned dismay as all the "good" QBs go off the board before your pick. Sigh, sell "BPA available" and draft for that, saying "We're too close to winning something big to reach on a QB at this pick. Other needs must be addressed. We'll get a similar QB later at a better value." - Step 5a: Again watch in dismay as no similar QBs are available by the next pick. Again draft BPA. - Step 5B: Rinse and repeat 5A until eventually arriving at 2B. Step 6: Talk up previously acquired backup QB, now-starter and how much talent you've added in the draft around him. Reference "weapons" and "chunks." Step 7: Repeat Steps 5-6 for 2-3 more years, then reset at Step 1. |
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I think the jury is still very much out on his ability to return this team to the Super Bowl. Let's let the guy win at least ONE playoff game as a Chief before jumping to this conclusion. |
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The problem with giving up the two 2nds, the first one almost being a 1st, is that you are committing long term to him at that time no matter the contract situation.
Does anyone really think they gave up those two picks with the intention of Alex Smith only being a Chief for two years? Really? Oh yeah, that's right they are going to draft a Qb first round. Swampland for sale here, step right up! |
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Whom would you suggest we pick and then turn the franchise over to in week 1 next year? |
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It's perfectly reasonable and logical to say you prefer they give an extension ONLY if Alex Smith proves he deserves it (and proves he CAN be a QB who LEADS a team to playoff wins). Even a few guys who are big Smith defenders (Boss Chief, scott free) are on that bandwagon. I am pretty sure about what's coming (drafting pieces around Alex, maybe taking a flyer on a guy in the middle or late rounds). Doesn't mean I have to like it or accept it. |
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He played like a top 10 QB in those games and we lost because the defense wet itself. What does that have to do with Smith? The guy did everything you could reasonably expect. He outplayed Manning in Arrowhead, IMO and was every bit Rivers' equal. You really think we're improving as a football team by tossing that? Additionally, letting a QB play out his walk year sends a clear sign to the player and the team that you don't trust him. It creates a leadership crisis more often than not. Even when it works out (i.e. Flacco), it hurts the team through inflating his price tag. Why do you need to see another year of Alex Smith? What can you possibly think you'll learn? Smith now has 3 straight years of doing the same thing - being a high end game manager that is capable of turning it up a little bit while taking very little off the table. That's what you have - the end. If he wins the next 3 games, that won't change. If he loses the next 3 games, that won't change. None of your requests will change who the guy is. And you're absolutely wrong that the guy hasn't done anything to prove he's not better than one of the 15-25th best QB options in the league. He's outplayed many of the guys you'd have put on that list ahead of him over the last 3 years. He's been better than Flacco, better than Eli, better than Kaepernick. He's nowhere near as flashy as those guys but damn is he smart with the ball and he's a very good leader. You folks that are dismissing this out of hand are simply digging your heels in. If the Chiefs can get him signed to a reasonable deal they'd be fools not to. Even if they have to sign him for 6, everyone knows the first 3/4 is what matters. Moreoever, given the state of QBs in this league (God-awful), getting Smith signed to a reasonable contract where any signing bonus would accelerate onto the Chiefs cap in the event of a trade makes him a hell of a trade asset. If we do manage to get a young QB that is good enough to replace him, huzzah; we'll deal him. If you let him play through his walk year he has no reason at all to extend without testing the market. Once that happens, his price will increase substantially. Additionally, are you really ready to go with Bray in that event? if so, that's just absurd - you've seen nothing to believe he's ready to play. Letting an established QB with a clear track record play through his walk year is silly. He's not going to change in 2014. |
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I would guess the Chiefs end up drafting no lower than 24th (where they would slot with a first-round playoff loss, right?). Who knows how the QB class works out, but that might put them in position to take a QB who can be the guy down the road. I'd suggest the Chiefs keep looking for other QB options and let Alex Smith play out the last year of his contract. Make the decision on the extension later, after next season. That gives you a better idea of what you have in Smith (And if Reid's tutelage can make him more than a middle-of-the-pack QB) and also a better idea of what you have brought in/what will be available to you in the 2015 draft. |
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Well said DJ you're the voice of reason on CP :thumb: |
I'd need to see how he plays out the rest of the season and the playoffs. If he continues to play like he did against the Broncos and Chargers....and he gets us a playoff win. Then sure...as long as it's nothing huge. If we go back to the offense in the beginning of the year....then no.
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So there's nothing wrong with extending Alex Smith for a couple years beyond next year, so we don't end up with a rookie and Daniel as our only options. |
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The Chiefs would be absolutely stupid to take a QB in the first round in 2014 and you know it. Quit being glib; it's beneath you. The conversation is in regards to Alex Smith; the rest is noise. If you wait through his walk year to extend him, you're going to wait that much longer to get to your long-term option or you're going to have to let him walk. If he gets to his walk year, he's going to look for a deal that makes him uncuttable for at least 3 seasons and in an open market could probably demand one that got him 4. So now you're talking about being married to the guy for 2014-2018 seasons at the very least. Alternatively, you approach him this off-season about an extension that is done while you have more leverage and you make it escapable after 3 seasons. At that point you're looking at having him through 2016 with what amount to options in 2017 and beyond. And now you have time to legitimately address the QB situation rather than just reach for the QB highest on your board in the first this year and throw his ass to the wolves in 2015. Hypothetical are easy - "Nah, I'll look elsewhere. No, I want an elite QB. FIRST ROUND QBS!!!!!" - reality often intervenes. Elsewhere is likely Josh McCown (you could insert Matt Flynn or Ryan Fitzpatrick in this sentence last season). Elite QBs are few and far between. First round QBs are great when you're in a good position to take them. The 2014 draft is extremely unlikely to present that possibility. |
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At Denver? Top 10 QBs don't complete less than 50 percent of their passes for 5.2 YPA. A few drops don't make up for 24 incompletions and a weak offensive effort against a mediocre-at-best defense. He did play like a top 10 guy against San Diego (though it should be noted his performance against that defense was pretty similar to what the league has done against it this season). And outplay Manning at Arrowhead? I think only a Chiefs fan would say. Why do I need to see another year of Alex Smith? Because he has shown me nothing that makes me think he's better than what he was in San Francisco. Which is not good enough. It places him squarely in the middle of the starting QB pecking order, and it's damn hard to win anything of consequence when that's the case. There's time to wait. At least get through this year's draft and FA period before signing the extension. If they get through those without acquiring another QB, I wouldn't squawk at a modest extension for Smith, for the reasons you state. Something that extends him at a similar salary to what he's making now would be fine. |
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"Who cares if the guy sucks, it means are record will be bad and we'll get to draft another one!!!" Or it means that we'd take Geno Smith and suck for another 5 years. And this is from someone that liked Geno. How the hell can anyone, after experiencing the 3 years we just experienced, truly be in favor of falling back into that morass? Moreover, it's a shitload easier for us to say when it's not our careers that would waste away - tell that to Hali, Johnson, Flower and Charles - we owe it to those guys to field a competitive football team. QBs like Wilson, Glennon and Foles are falling further in the draft and becoming more and more common. The idea that we should just keep throwing haymakers at the QB position and not give a shit if it leaves us winning 4 games/season until we finally get our guy (if we ever get our guy; many teams haven't) is just absurd. |
I don't even know if you draft a QB next year at all.
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Take it over on Day 1 in 2015? Maybe. Depends on how the draft works out. If the Chiefs draft a QB high (I don't expect this to happen, but it SHOULD be on the table, even if it won't) in the 2014 draft, that player could sit for a year behind Alex Smith before being asked to start. You wouldn't be starting a rookie. |
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What he was in San Fransisco and now here is better than what we're 80% likely to get. And if we don't have that yet, why let him get away? There's nothing to be gained by letting go of the first branch before you've grabbed the next. I like the idea of planning for a future without Alex Smith, but Alex Smith is part of that plan. I'm not okay with just falling to hell and losing 12 games/season while we watch a legitimate HoF talent at RB waste away. I'm not okay with pissing away the remainder of the careers of two of the best Chiefs you'll ever see in Hali and DJ. We have to keep this team healthy in the short term while building for the long. Alex Smith does that. It fosters a winning culture again. It gets us closer to the Broncos than the Jaguars (and bad news, kiddos - the rest of the NFL had us squarely in that 'well there's a W' category with the Jags, Bucs, Raiders and the rest of the NFL swill). If you want to wait until after the draft to approach Smith - fine. But if his representatives were to approach us immediately following the end of the season with a reasonable proposal that keeps him here for 3-4 years on terms that are similar to these (with adjustments for increases in the cap), I'd take it right then. The plan can include Alex Smith; that doesn't mean the plan is Alex Smith. |
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Only if we can trade him for a couple seconds.
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I'm saying: 1) Alex Smith can prove to ME (which doesn't mean shit, ultimately) and most other doubters that he deserves an extension by accomplishing a few things before the end of this season. 2) If he doesn't accomplish those things before the Chiefs' season ends, you don't have to automatically extend him right away. You can still go through the draft and FA and then work something out in training camp/before the start of the season if necessary. EDIT: And regarding... "HOw does drafting a QB in the first help us win..." Maybe it doesn't in 2014. But if it helps you win big down the road, long-term, it's a good move. Respect the short-term and long-term pictures, right? |
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As in jump on the bandwagon that it was the right thing to do. I accept that is what is likely going to happen. |
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The record speaks for itself. In 53 years this team has not drafted and successfully developed a QB. They haven't really even tried in 30 years, and the excuses are clearly documented, even in your own posts. This last draft was the clincher when they had the first pick, NOBODY was good enough, the only way out. Many think they were right, and we will see, but they aren't going to take a chance. |
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If it helps us 'win big down the road' through putting us through 2-3 more seasons at 2-14 because we cast Smith aside and decided that Mettenberger/Logan/whatever was an NFL quarterback, that's not a good move. At that point it doesn't respect the short-term. If it means that Mettenberger is a viable starting QB by 2015; works for me. Worst case scenario there is that he sits a year or two longer (the Rodgers route) and we have to trade Smith. If you build his deal around guaranteed salaries instead of signing bonuses, he has less trade value but he also becomes much easier to move from a salary cap standpoint. There are ways to get Smith extended without hamstringing the organization long-term. You can do it while respective his efforts in this turnaround and committing to both him and the team - something that I think always plays well in locker rooms. |
borderline
He must keep playing like he has the last 4 weeks for the rest of the year. |
If the route they take is re-signing Smith this offseason, I hope they are smart about it.
I don't care if they give the guy a 6 year deal worth 70 million, as long as its not etched in stone past the first two. There has to be an escape clause in case of injury/underperformance. 5.5 million (with a 15 million signing bonus) 1st year 7 the second 8 the third (with a roster bonus of around 3 million) 9 in the fourth 11 in the fifth 12 in the sixth I could deal with something like that if he plays well in the postseason and we win AT LEAST ONE PLAYOFF GAME. |
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Unless a top guy drops to us at the end of the first (not gonna happen) we NEED to use that first on a receiver or safety. No second, so we are waiting towards the end of the third to swing again and the only way I take one there is if he was a guy Reid loves and he was in mid free fall. Taking one after the third is a complete waste. We have a competent starter right now in Alex and we also have a developmental quarterback in Bray and a vet in the 2 spot. I think the way Alex has played thus far has earned him the right to be the teams starter next year without much debate. |
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Smith has averaged about 7 yards per pass since the O-line shake-up /(switch to ZBS?). Offense has been completely different. If Smith and the offense play at the level they have the last three weeks for the rest of the season, you make extending Smith the priority of the off-season.
Add some more weapons, and I can see Smith putting up big numbers next year, not just a decent/high QB rating. We still don't have enough data points, but the last 3 weeks certainly suggest the Oline was the entirety of the problem on offense early in the season. |
I'd also like to point something out that might sway my opinion on the re-signing topic.
The jump Alex made between his first and second year under JH. He went from completing 61% of his throws for 7.1 ypa and throwing 17 tds in 16 games in 2011 to completing over 70% at 8ypa and 13tds his second year in just over 8 games (he got the concussion in the 9th game around halftime iirc.) That's HUGE improvement and Andy has talked multiple times about "using all those gigabytes" and how Alex is so much better once he is in the system for a year or two. It's possible that we could get him signed to a reasonable deal this offseason, but that the price could o up DRASTICALLY next year if he comes out completing 70% of his throws while Andy has him throwing the ball 35 times per game. Some simple math... Alex has 460 attempts this year (a career high with 3 games to go) ...just over 35 attempts per game. If he has a similar amount of attempts next year and has a similar jump in effectiveness from year one to year two... He would have 566 attempts 4,529 yards (566 x 8ypa) 1.0625 tds per game (17tds/16games) in 2011...1.529 tds per game (13tds/8.5 games) in 2012...that's a 56% increase in td performance. Alex is currently at 1.385 tds per game in 2013...if you figure in the possible improvement in effectiveness that he showed in SF, that means he could see 2.16 tds per game in 2014...roughly 35 touchdown throws. An Alex Smith throwing for over 4500 yards and 35 touchdowns while adding another 4-500 rushing yards and a couple scores there is gonna hard to get signed for anything less than what Stafford and Flacco got. |
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NO...
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Too soon to tell. Let you know in about 4 weeks.
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There's a chance that the guy could get really expensive, really fast. And that's even if he just duplicates this season's numbers. Honestly, if we had traded 2 seconds for Andy Dalton, I don't think people would be having this discussion; everyone would be demanding we re-sign him. Personally, I don't see any reason to suggest Dalton's a better QB than Smith. |
Yes ..only because our options are shit.
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I wouldn't, but they will.
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I wouldn't trade Alex for Dalton right now.
Progress. |
I say you wait.
Unless you REALLY,REALLY think Alex Smith is going to blow up next year there isn't much point in signing before you have to. Maybe Bray is fantastic next year ... maybe somebody unforeseen drops in the draft ... maybe Smith doesn't improve much beyond now. wait |
He's still got another year on his contract. Why would you sign an extension at the end of this season?
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If the Chiefs win it all , absolutely. If not he can die in a fire
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If it were up to me I would say yes.
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I think BossChief may have it right.
KC could be financially wise in locking him up sooner than later. Alex is very unlikely to regress.. as was 2011-2012, he became significantly better when the team and his comfort in the system grew. If KC can extend him in the offseason while also somewhat protecting themselves on guarantees? That would be the way to go. Alex already made his fortune, and was never about the almighty dollar. He wants to be on a team that can contend, a team that wants him there. Add a 3rd year roster bonus option... throw some incentives in, and he would likely take a deal that wouldn't break KC's bank. |
Hell yes you extend him.
But how long and how much are what make it either brilliant or insanely stupid. |
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Alex Smith could end up being an unbelievable asset as both a mentor and backup to a young QB. |
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So far Alex Smith has exceeded my expectation but i still say wait. |
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Then what happens? If we extend him early, the odds of having a salary that could reasonably be carried for a backup go up. That's the sweet spot - enough money to keep him around, but low enough to where it becomes cost-prohibitive to keep him as a backup to our first round QB. :thumb: |
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This was a nice, entertaining and well-written prediction that perfectly captured the frustration of long-suffering Chiefs fans. The problem is that it turned out to be wrong. You predicted a continuous cycle of 7-10 wins. That's already been smashed to smithereens with 3 weeks to go. You've been an excellent poster ever since you joined this site. I especially like your takes on the Royals. But DJ's Left Nut is kicking your ass in this thread. |
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Their first move, was the same as Pioli's, trade a second(s) for an experienced guy that can get you back to competitive now. If they had a mindset to take a chance on a QB, they would have. I would bet a high that as long as the Hunt's own this team, they will not spend a 1st on a QB in my lifetime. |
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Yep DJ's left nut should be President of CP :thumb: |
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The step-by-step process I copied over from another thread was posted in April or May, when even the most optimistic Chiefs fans were saying 10-11 wins. I could have just as easily said 13 (since that's been the high end of wins since the whole cycle started under Marty), but 7-10 have been the most common records in that time period, so I went with that. Also: Just checked your join date. Were you on here under a different handle before 2010? I've been around since 2001. |
Alex Smith still can't convert 1st and 10 on the opponents 19 and against a weak defense at home into a game tying score. He only give you a competitive advantage if he allows you to have more talent in other positions.
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That's exactly why you don't go overboard to sign him. If he's looking for a Flacco contract, you walk. The Chiefs shouldn't move heaven and Earth for him, they just need to offer him a fair deal for an average to slightly above average QB. The deal needs to be one that allows them to keep the parts that are necessary for him to win the 10-12 games/season he's capable of winning with a solid defense.
If you can stick with a game manager salary for him, I believe you do get a competitive advantage. Obviously it would be better to snag someone like Wilson in the 3rd and get a Pro Bowl QB for free for a few years, but let's wait until we have one of those first. As much as we think we see, the coaches see more. If we got a guy like Wilson, I'm completely confident that Reid would see that on the practice field and wouldn't hesitate to give the kid the keys (he's done it before). And no, we didn't manage to tie that game, but in the alternative you can say that he took a team against a $25 million quarterback that just threw 5 touchdowns and had them 3 yards away from overtime. That's pretty damn impressive in its own right, is it not? I just think it's both unfair and unreasonable to say "if he's not Manning, don't extend him." He's not Manning - he'll never be Manning. But if your choice is Alex Smith at $10-$12 million/season or Eli Manning, Joe Flacco or Tony Romo at twice that, you're going to be a better football team on the aggregate with Alex Smith. In that sense, he absolutely provides a competitive advantage. |
Yes. But don't rush.
Just one Sunday of watching QB's around the league will tell you all you need to know about how hard it is to find consistent play from your QB. QB play has been atrocious for a lot of NFL teams this year and we all know it is the most important position on the field. Smith has played with competence and consistency. He has shown flashes of more than that on more than a handful of occasions...And make no mistake, other than Charles and an inconsistent Bowe, this offense lacks fire power. Smith has done what most here said he needed to do...Make KC competitive immediately...and he has done that. Do you sign him to crazy money? No. Do you extend him for the next five years? No. Do you push him out the door after next year with only an undrafted QB worth a shit behind him? Absolutely not. |
Just because Alex has had about 5 or 6 good games out of 13 so far, doesn't mean you extend him, nope.
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