Still waiting. If this can not be sufficiently replied to with names, then it means that your entire stance on "excuses" eats the butt. The only replies in the past were of elite QBs like Brady or Rodgers... and whether legit or not, no one ever claims that Smith is on the level of those guys.

Most of the same people criticizing Smith for his gun-shy, average play have also stated at different times that the OL and WRs are not good. Even that the playcalling sucks. So if the OL and WRs are not good, what the hell do you really expect this QB to do?

It's simply irrational thinking.. and seems to be only for CP.

Not debating his value as a qb. But post the after stats with Vernon Davis. You are full of shit. He became pretty much irrelevant post Alex as kraepernick had eyes only for Crabtree, and then boldin.

Still waiting on the link to Alex going deep to Davis multiple times a game.

YOU SON OF A BITCH! REMOVE THIS IMMEDIATELY!

Honestly, who cares how far the ball travels. If he throws a seven yard pass and the wr or whoever runs for another 20 do I actually care if the ball went 27 yards in the air? I do not. As long as Alex can improve on getting KC more TD's who cares about his worthless yards per completion.

TD's matter, stats do not.

Those clamoring for deep passes then had one or two motives going for them.. maybe both.


They know the OL is shit, and wanted Alex to get physically destroyed.

They are obsessed with the fantasy football, chuck it up Geno style bro! allure of deep passes.

I'm not expecting him to pass downfield with an improved OL and WR corps.

He just doesn't have it in him. Not enough testicles to let it fly even if the opportunity presents itself.

Those clamoring for deep passes understand that against good teams with quality defenses - like those you typically must get past to win anything in the playoffs - you have to stretch the field vertically to consistently move the ball offensively.

It's not about fantasy football. It's about opening up the ****ing field and forcing teams to respect your ability to get the ball outside the first 10 yards.

When they don't, defenses can cheat up to take away the run and focus defenders in the short area to smother crossing routes and slants (staples of the WCO).

I want Alex Smith to throw beyond the sticks on third down occasionally and not check down to a guy running a two-yard cross with no chance of getting the first down.

I want Alex Smith to try to open up the field, which means taking chances and occasionally throwing the ball deep even if your receiver does not have two steps on his defender.

It has nothing to do with any of the reasons you stated. It has to do with being a fan of the team, not the QB (who is afraid to throw deep because PICKS!).

These are the types of things those who have grown up with the Chiefs have heard Len Dawson talk about with every QB other than Trent Green.

And these are some of the reasons the coaching staff is now talking about getting Smith to go against his natural (gun-shy) instinct and make the throws he has the physical ability to make... for the third straight ****ing year.

Basically, what Duncan said.

I don't think anyone reasonably expects him to lead the league in deep passes. But you've got to do it occasionallg, simply to keep defenses honest.

I do believe they have put good wrs and such around him to do it, so at this point, just gotta see it.

It makes windows so much easier in the area he does excel in. I also would imagine even the most ardent detractors here don't really mind a short passing game. It can be pretty damn effective and we've got some pretty damn good skill guys to match it.

But you've gotta hit some chunk olays, especially against good defenses.

Let me know when Alex leads an offense in the top 10. Hell... let me know when Alex leads an offense in the top 20, lol. Dude plays football like it's a game of keep-away.

10 years, he is who he is.

Let's start with this.

- For many years, Alex Smith doesn't throw deep very often. We all agree.

- For all of those years, Alex Smith has had poor pass protecting OLs. This is true.

- For the last recent years, Alex Smith has been an effective QB, and is top 5-7 of all QBs in win %. This is true.



So opposing defenses have known for many years now that Smith doesn't throw deep often.. and that his OLs have not been good at pass protection.

Knowing this... how is he still an effective starter in the league and making large bank to this day? He still has his RBs generating good run production also. Why can't opposing defenses reduce him to an ineffective bench player or get him out of the league?


Would his offensive game be more effective with a more frequent and successful deep game? Of course... but that requires a decent pass pro line and receivers that are skilled in the deep game.

Reid should want to start every year preparing his QB to look deep more frequently... but if the OL fails yet again, you can bet he will go right back to heavy usage of the quick pass game.. as he should.



All of the back and forth is horseshit really... The weapons are now in KC... now it all comes down to the pass pro. It shows up, the deeper pass attempts will follow. But not kidding self... this offense will still thrive most on the run game and quick passes for YAC.

Those numbers for his downfield passing since 2011 are somewhat scewwed.

His amount of throws each year that traveled 21+ yards in the air:

2005 23 (in 7 starts)
2006 49 (16 starts)
2007 23 (7 starts)
2008 injury
2009 34 (10 starts)
2010 29 (10 starts)
2011 36 (16 starts)
2012 17 (9 starts)
2013 36 (15 starts)
2014 18 (15 starts)


Pretty easy to look at that and say 2014 was CLEARLY the aberration.

If you use win % as a qb qualifier, I'm automatically dismissing you.

Wins obviously matter, but using that as a qb stat just doesn't hold up.

With this set of skill players, he should throw atleast 40 balls of that magnitude. Atleast.

He attempts 2.5 deep throws a start.

He wasn't gunshy when Donnie Avery was getting open deep in the 2nd half of 2013.

The cool thing about the upcoming season is we have 3 or 4 guys now that have Donnie Avery's ability or better.

And this whole "his ol hasn't been this or that" is a bit of a stretch. He doesn't do them any favors holding onto the ball

The thing is it isn't JUST throws over 20 yards.

He attempted fewer intermediate passes than MATT CASSEL before he came to KC and that was a huge part of why I wanted no part of him.

And this is false over his last 22 games.

What isn't an aberration.....he's only played a full season 3 times (considering 2013 was a full season if he would have played that final game).

Yup. 2.52

If you buy into the "terrible OL, terrible WRs in 2014" (I do) and throw out 2014s #s, that goes up to 2.744 per game.

That gives a reasonable range of between 40-44 deep passes we should expect from him in 2015.

Personally, I think he will surpass the top end of that because his receivers and tight ends will be far better than he has had to work with in the past, but if he throws 35-40 I'll be happy.

It's an excuse. Plain and simple.

His OL in San Francisco was awesome his last two years there. His first OL with the Chiefs was a solid unit and played better than that in the second half.

He has had consistently strong running games throughout those periods, which for MOST QBs means you have a lot of play-action opportunities down the field - or at least take PA shots to make teams worry about giving up the long bomb if they suck up too much on run plays.

As for throwing deep more often... I will buy that 2014 was an outlier, but it's not like it hasn't been an issue throughout his recent, team-driven success. It has. Throwing deep 2.5 times a game is still not enough.

And yeah, he hit Avery deep a few times towards the end of 2013, but he has left a lot more of those throws on the field over the past two years than he has made.

That's why the coaches are constantly talking about getting him to let it rip.

Could have been lack of protection as well

when your QB gets hit in under 2 seconds, really hard to go deep

Which would still put him in the bottom third of the league.

http://bloggingthebeast.com/wp-conte...14/07/17.4.png

Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady have played behind some shitstain offensive lines at times. A Rod has some great weapons but I think a good 75% of their success could reasonably be attributed to his awesomeness alone. Brady's receiving corps when Gronk is out (which is often) is less than stellar.

Russell Wilson at times.

I'm of the opinion that the Broncos offensive lines haven't been very good the past couple seasons. They were missing an All-Pro LT in 2013 and constantly changing up the lineup during 2014. Peyton is just a timing fanatic that makes bad lines look great.

win loss % absolutely is a QB stat. It's weighted by the strength of the surrounding team, but there's a reason stat sites list win loss records as a QB stat and not for other positions.

A quarterbacks decisions directly effect the way a game plays out.

I'm gonna try to find a stat on win% of quarterbacks in games they don't throw any picks, to quarterbacks that throw 1, then 2, etc.

I bet (without looking) that if a QB throws no interceptions in a game, his win % is close to 70% and it lessens significantly with each turnover.

I bet those same numbers don't correlate to number of deep throws a QB makes, but I'm not sure how I'd crunch those numbers.

You call people pointing to the OL as "an excuse" while ignoring how it CLEARLY effected his amount of throws over 21 yards in the air last year.

And I'm sorry, but when AJ Jenkins is one of your STARTING receivers, your receivers are unquestionable crap. It's not even debatable.

A qb can win a game throwing for 60 yards and 1 td and no picks and lose one where he puts up numbers like Smith did in Indy in the playoff game.

It's not an indicative stat to qb play.

I'm not limiting the criticism to 2014, which I will admit is an outlier. I'm talking about the 2011-14 seasons, as a whole. He doesn't push the ball to deep and intermediate areas enough over the course of that time span. 2014 is just the low point.

This is Smith's last chance year for me. I've bitten my tongue and rolled my eyes at 3 yard dump offs on 3rd & long for 2 years now.

Even if he finds his balls and turns into a turnover machine at least I would respect that, because it shows that he's at least trying to get downfield and would give us the sign that it's time to move on. Then maybe Sandy and whoever else joined in Feb 2013 would go bother the Cleveland Browns message boards or something. No offense, they seem like nice enough dudes, but it's beyond me why anyone would follow a mediocre Quarterback to another teams message board.

Your and idiot if you really believe this. That SF line was not a good PASS PRO group. They were good at run blocking.. that much is accurate.

... and the KC line in the first half of 2013 was shit too.. easily bottom 10.


Cry all you want.. you obviously do so on a day to day basis.. if for no other reason to garner attention. Smith isn't going anywhere for a while. :)

Reid will trade Alex after the

People on here seem to believe that smith needs to throw 20+ bombs every possession to even be considered a quarterback, when in fact he plays the position efficiently by what is given to him by the defense. Yes, throwing downfield is flashy and what not, but if it's not a for sure matchup win by the receiver, smith will not force the throw. And let's say he does force the throws and it gets picked, all of you would be quick to feather and tar Alex real quick, so in defense of Alex it's a catch 22

Take it from me, I've followed Alex since he was drafted from the 49ers and watched pretty much all of his games and this idea most on here seem to think of as truth is false: that Alex doesn't throw the deep ball. I've seen him throw a 50 yarder down the field to a receiver equivalent to Wilson during a torrential rainstorm Thursday night against the Seahawks in Seattle. Or when the game is on the line against the saints in that divisional playoff game to Vernon Davis. Most recently to Donnie Avery. My point is, yeah he doesn't take enough chances as we like, but the guy can throw and win you games when the game is on the line. How many qbs have the Chiefs had in recent memory can you trust and win you games? Alex is smart he won't take the gamble if the risk is not worth the reward. And can you honestly blame hi 100% last year for the offensive woes this team faced? But the future is bright with this team and honestly it reminds me of the 49ers team going into the 2011 season. And guess how far they made it that year, a fumble away from playing in the super bowl.

I can't puzzle out why they follow this guy so religiously, to the point of switching team allegiance because of him.

Only thing I can come up with is desperation to be right about and unwillingness to surrender until they are.

Can he do that? What you're describing here overall is an excellent example of a game manager. Someone who won't **** things up for you but also isn't going to try to go make big plays unless they're unbelievably wide open or the game is absolutely on the line.

That's not enough to make big-time moves in the postseason unless you have an elite defense, in consideration for all-time levels of greatness, and a great running game to support it.

Maybe the Chiefs have it. But they're paying Alex Smith like he's more than a game manager. For him to be worthy of that, he needs to play like more of a game manager and push the ball downfield more often.

I'm hopeful that adding Jeremy Maclin and improving the OL will Alex-proof things. Time will tell.

As for people ripping him for throwing picks, that's not the case. Many of the most skeptical Alex doubters praised his willingness to take more chances with throws in the second half of 2013 when - surprise - the offense performed much better. Myself included.

I have explained this over a dozen times, so I'm done with that. Apparently, people at CP have comprehension issues.

Short answer is, it makes NO difference who has the opinion or why. If you can not debate the actual opinion without trying to turn it into something personal, you fail to be an intelligent person in the discussion.

FYP

Finish your thought. LOL

Alex throws some of the best 2 yard passes on 3rd and long Ive ever seen. Crisp tight spiral to the fullback who is tackled for a 4yard gain. Its probably the most exciting part of the game.

The opposing defense does...

Missed this earlier...

How far the ball travels in the air definitely matters, in that a defense that doesn't respect a team's willingness or ability to work the intermediate and deep parts of the field with any consistency or aggressiveness can instead bunch up underneath and shut down the run while limiting the short passing game.

A 7-yard cross can turn into a BIG play if the safeties are deep respecting other things, and the middle has opened up.

When the defense is EXPECTING the 7-yard cross, it's much, much more likely to stuff it.

The negative impact of a turnover is far greater than the positive impact of a touchdown

again, looking for QBs that are not regarded as elite.. naming a few elite QBs does not really strength your case or weaken mine here... whether even those elite QBs meet the requirements of the argument of having crap OLs and deep weapons.

As for Wilson, his OL hasn't been particularly good, but it also hasn't been bottom 5 as has Smith's. He also has rare evasiveness, which can allow him to make more broken play bombs.


Name non-elite QBs with trash OLs and deep weapons that have found relatively consistent success.

What's the purpose of your offense? "Not to turn the ball over"...Marty Schottenheimer circa 1995.

Here's how many passes some of the bigger name qbs threw last year that traveled 21+ yards in the air..

Aaron Rodgers 48
Ben Rothlisberger 63
Joe Flacco 55
Tom Brady 48
Peyton Manning 56
Eli manning 46
Drew Brees 52
Andrew Luck 74
Matt Ryan 51
Phillip Rivers 60
Tony Romo 50
Russel Wilson 45

Wilson fits the criteria.

Philip Rivers has played behind some booty offensive lines and, outside of Vincent Jackson, hasn't had a great stable of receivers.

Like I said...Even if Alex gets to 40 attempts he'd be bottom third.

He's so far behind everyone sle.

In 2012 this happened. And like 40% of his sacks came in the 2nd half of 2 games. GB and AZ when the team was up 2 scores. He held the ball and went down because 'no thanks, not a good idea'

2009-2011 avg sack time is not a guy that stood around and then got hit. 2.9 seconds was below the avg.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/und...sack-deviation

They've asked him since season 1 here to let it air. The guy just isn't going to do it consistently. It's like trying to convince Favre he should be more cautious with the ball. At some point, you just say that's who he is.

Wilson's overall stats are in the same ballpark as Smith's. Similar yardage, TDs, INTs, rating... the comparison on their YIA (yards in air) is 1,390 vs 1,603..

Rivers definitely did have a suck ass OL, and played well last year. Most lately would put Rivers just at the bottom of that elite group// or at the top of the tier two group. He has really stepped up in the last couple of years. Keenan Allen, Floyd, and Gates are not in the bottom tier group of pass weapons though.

Still looking for QBs that have excelled with bottom OLs and pass weapons.

You'll never get an answer that satisfies the criteria in your head...

Allen and Floyd are not great receiving weapons. They've got potential, but how much of their production can you attribute to Philip Rivers being a baller? A shoddy offensive line, a nonexistent running game and a couple average-at-best perimeter weapons.

Andrew Luck has played with some horrible surrounding talent. At times his offensive line has been bad, their running game is atrocious, and he's basically had a 54 year old Reggie Wayne and an ascending TY Hilton on the perimeter.

In a 10 year career, Alex Smith has thrown 42 completions of 40+ yards.

In 3 years, Russell Wilson has 29.

Russell Wilson also has (without looking) 5-8 playoff wins in those three years and a Lombardi Trophy.

But hey, his regular season stats (as a third year player) are similar to Alex's, so in the feeble minds of morons, they are comparable.

I'd also be willing to bet Wilson has as many, or nearly as many come from behind victories as Alex in 1/3 the time.

I have some argument with Hootie over him, but I have to admit the kid is clutch. Something Alex is not.

He is the premier game manager of our day.

Whatever. I'm not even going to get into this argument.

Wilson slings the rock around the yard. If you want to call him a game manager then that's fine. Just recognize that he's DAMN good.

doesn't sound that way, no. Even if to accept the few elites, Rivers being a top 7 QB, and Wilson... the list still is short. Just don't seem to be many non-elite QBs that excel with both bottom tier WRs and OLs. So why should Alex be expected to? Only now can we say that Smith is being paid top dollar vs the cap.. and only now can we say the pass options are above bottom tier.

That still leave the OL tier to be determined.

Now, I'd say he does have enough promising pass weapons for a better year.. but OL? impossible to say. I am guessing the OL does crawl out from bottom 10. So if they do and Smith still plays too much small ball that is ineffective? yes, I too will be disappointed.. and will share in the QB frustration.

The words we use are important. No, I am not calling Rivers' pass weapons great.. and interesting that you left Gates out of the equation... but again, we are talking about bottom tier... not good... not "great." His pass options are at least better than bottom tier, imho.

a 54 yr old Wayne was better than any WR that the Chiefs have fielded lately. I think most would agree that an old Wayne would have been a better pairing for Alex than Bowe.. though not by miles. Hilton is a larger asset in the pass game than all of the WR pass weapons that KC has had in the last 2 years. Even "pure" Chiefs fans stated that they would trade every single WR on their roster for one Hilton. Ether way... again, we are talking about Luck.. who most would label a QB God in the making.

I left Gates out because you initially asked for a QB that excelled with shit OL and "deep weapons". Not to mention the fact that Alex has had Vernon Davis and Travis Kelce at TE for most of the past 4 seasons. I'd take both of those guys up there with Gates so it's a wash.

Even still, you're going to keep making excuses as you always do. Once again, how much of a WR's production can we attribute to his QB? Alex has had some talent at the WR position recently. Oh, but Michael Crabtree was lazy. Bowe was lazy. Moss was old. Manningham was hurt. Avery was never good... Any QB worth his salt could make due with those guys while boasting a top 5 ground game and top 5 TE talent as well.

Reggie Wayne is 46 years old. In 15 starts with Andrew Luck throwing him passes in an aerial offense, he posted 779 yards and 2 TDs. He's 6' and shy of 200 lbs so you know he isn't going to be winning contested jump balls that Alex doesn't throw. At 62 years of age he's probably not even as fast as Bowe currently.

If he were in KC last year he'd have posted something dismal like 400 yards and probably 0 TDs.

But, but the main reathon the defenthe ith tho good ith becauthe Alekth giveth them a chanthe to retht!!!!!!!

That's fine. The point was, I asked if anyone could name some non-QBs that have excelled with bottom tier OLs and WRs.

You and others managed to come up with Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Rivers, Luck.. and Wilson. 3 are clearly elite.. one is borderline elite.. Luck is Luck.. and Wilson puts up similar production to Smith, but yes.. does chuck it up deep more often.

Great job!

It's not fine. It's ****ing annoying. I just provided you with more than a handful of names that find ways to excel despite subpar line play and receiving weapons. You continue to make excuses..

"Well......... THOSE GUYS ARE ALL GOOD!" No ****ing shit.

You could probably add Cam Newton to the list as well.

Rivers has had 31 total drops the last 2 seasons.

KC 31 and 29 the last 2.

Do you think its his dreamy eyes? It has to be. No other rational explanation.

You asked for any that did it then take two in this post and make an excuse why they don't count?

No wonder no one replied

I seriously do think some of these ASsexuals have crushes on him.

Or they wanted the threat of a deep ball to loosen up the defense a little


Edit: I see sensible people already stated this

Hence, reasons why Alex only fans will never be taken seriously.

WRs do this.
Or do teams only draft WRs high in the draft for fun? No you dimwits. It's that consistent mismatch they are looking to acquire at the WR position.

http://i.imgur.com/hpfwtltl.jpg

There isn't a shortage of mediocre/bad QBs who chuck it deep.
And those guys really benefited from showing teams they would let it loose. There is a lot of scoring in those QBs lead offenses right? I mean that is a huge part of NFL passing?

This may be my biggest issue with Alex at QB.

First of all, I've never been one to be wowed by yardage stats. I couldn't give two shits less if Alex throws for 220 ypg. What I care about is whether or not he makes clutch plays when necessary. Thus far, he's been the polar ****ing opposite of clutch.

What's worse is the fact that a guy with his play style absolutely needs to be clutch. He won't light up the scoreboard but his risk aversion will likely keep us within 7 points near the end of most games. The difference between making those plays and not making those plays in crunch time is Russell Wilson and Alex Smith. It's the difference between wins and losses. It's the difference between Super Bowls and first round playoff exits.

We have seen shots of WRS running free deep while smith was shitting his pants.

Wrs don't matter is the qb isn't looking. He doesn't want to see it seems sometimes.

This year should tell the tale.

I'm piss poor at math and trying to do that in my head, but I'm thinking that is a whopping 5-7% of the passes he's thrown.

Another really pathetic attempt at an excuse.

Something more I want to note on this subject: I don't tend to mind the fact that a winning QB doesn't always throw for a ton of yards throughout a game. I value efficiency over gaudy stats. The ability to do so when necessary, however, is extremely important.

When cracking 300 yards in a game (only once in 2014) or gaining 40 yards to put your team in field goal position (final drive of Cards game) becomes such a laborious effort, it's a problem; and I think that problem is symptomatic of his unwillingness to look down field.

That's why I view Russell Wilson as a higher tier QB than Alex despite "similar" stats.

Look at the chart I posted. Russ is near the top of the league in percentage of his attempts over 20 yards.

Alex was probably last.

If Wilson played in a more pass-friendly system his numbers would be huge.

'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses' 'excuses'

So...

Explain the difference in performance of Peyton Manning the last years in INDY vs DEN *DESPITE coming off serious surgery.

Explain Romo's 2014 season being amazingly efficient and jump over recent years play? *DESPITE coming off serious surgery.

Explain Tom Brady's yards dropping 3 years in a row and looking DOA at the start of 2014.

I'm sorry, but this idea is absolutely ridiculous. Just comically absurd.

complete exaggeration

actually i think it's been statistically proven to be correct


not losing a game is almost always the most important thing

The key is finding a place in the middle where you don't make the huge game losing mistake while still being aggressive enough to gain as much "winning" plays as you can.

No, it hasn't.

There is a correlation between turnover ratio and winning, but the defense has something to do with that too.

There's not a coach alive who would choose a turnover free drive over 6 guaranteed points.

I'd love to know the average conversion percentage of TDs off opponent QB's INTs. Some of you guys (not you specifically, Laz) think a turnover is guaranteed points for the opposition, and it's nowhere close to it.

Thank you OTWP58 for basically writing what I was planning on writing.....

To add to that, statistically, on average a turnover is worth -3.5 points. A touchdown is worth at minimum +6. This is not to mention that the -3.5 point average comes from all NFL teams. Some NFL teams have terrible defenses. We do not.