When can they renegotiate their (horrible) TV deal?

mlb.com reporting Zack Greinke has opted out and will become a free agent. No link yet.

Here's another question that's important:

How high does the payroll go? Glass allowed Moore to push it higher last year and this year than we anticipated.

I'd still be a little shocked to see it pushed into the $150 range, but considering the extra million in attendance (which can be really conservatively estimated at an extra $75 million in revenue, maybe as high as $100 million, plus all the merchandise revenue), it would make some sense.

Glass seemed pretty happy hoisting that trophy. If he can afford it, I think the payroll goes pretty high.

You've got two more seasons to limp through the current TV deal before you have an idea what's going to be in place for 2019 and beyond (and I'm just guessing they rework 2018 when they re-negotiate the deal), and then that's a significant bump, too.

If salary is kept at the status quo, I think KC is left signing one of Zobrist/Gordon, and then plumbing the secondary market for fill-in pieces in the rotation (not sure they could afford a Mike Leake-type at that point).

If Salary is increased into the $130 million range, I think you can find room to re-sign one of Gordon/Zobrist AND add a Mike Leake type. Or re-sign both Gordon and Zobrist.

Get into the $150 million range, and all of a sudden, you have the payroll room to add Gordon/Zobrist/+ a really good starting pitcher.

They have about $80 million currently committed in 2016 salaries, without including the arb guys (who should add about another $25 million).

Going to be fun to watch, I think.

I would laugh so hard if he wanted to come to the Royals after him saying he wanted to go to a "winner".

I believe DM said recently the goal in a small market is to bring up the following each year:

1. Position player
2. Starter
3. Reliever


He has done that most years. last year he didn't unless you include Orlando. He will have to do it this year tho. Guys like Eibner, Zimmer, Almonte almost have to come up because Madson + Young are surely gone and we are really maxing out payroll.


What happens to Vargas' contract? I read it's all covered by insurance if he doesn't pitch. That's a big game-changer (8m) in terms of payroll.


The team did go 26-16 or something like a 97-win pace without Gordon. Something to thjnk about if he really wants 90-100M.

I'd take him with open arms provided Glass will cough up the coin needed. Won't happen, but goddamn it'd be nice.

The Royals have declined their mutual options with Guthrie and Rios. Both are now free agents.

Rios will be paid a $1.5MM buyout, and Guthrie will get $3.2MM. This money must be paid by the Royals regardless of who they sign with.

Good. Dyson should take his spot in the rotation. We have Gore for all of our speed needs

Some pics from the parade...

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After 2019, unless FOX decides to let us renegotiate earlier.

They may decide to talk about an extension to keep the Royals from testing the open market, but that won't be until after next season at the earliest, and maybe not until after 2017. Right now we're still 4 years out, we'll need to use our playoff and record-breaking attendance money to bridge the gap.

I've read the insurance for Vargas covers 75 percent of his deal, so $6 million. That would drop their committed salaries down to about $78 million once Gordon declines his player option, with about $25-30 million for arbitration guys (assuming Holland is allowed to walk, which would be a big arb figure).

That puts KC around $110 million, with about 9-10 players to go get. Those would be:

Starting LF
Starting RF (if you don't go with Dyson/Orlando/etc.)
UTIL IF (Likely filled with Colon)
5th OF (filled internally)
Reserve C (could be filed internally with Francisco Pena, potentially, or by keeping Butera)

SP
BP (long reliever)
BP (middle)
BP (middle)
BP (lefty)

I could see Young returning because I still don't think his free market value will be that high, and even if he is at $3-4 million, that's a pretty valuable swing guy to have on a staff.

Guys like Louis Coleman, Brian Flynn, and perhaps Michael Mariot could fill the other bullpen slots.

So really, the number of guys KC needs to "pay" for is pretty limited.

FG crowdsource has Gordon #9 FA and Leake #12, him getting 4/56. That's a lotta dough. Doesn't 18/yr buy you more than that????


Duncan you like Dex Fowler in the past. 4/56 also, and he's 29. Might be a good fit here.

$14 million a year for Leake is not bad and seems about right.

Dexter Fowler would be a decent consolation prize for Alex Gordon, if they don't get a deal done there.

He's a good power/speed guy and should play a good LF, if that was the plan. I like that he's a switch hitter, and I like that he's a good career OBP player (.367 career OBP, nearly 100 points higher than his BA).

I think he'd likely be someone who can hit 10-15 HR with 40 2B and about 30 SB for KC, which would be pretty valuable.

He's also better historically vs. LHP than RHP, which is a bonus.

Love it. Read every word^^^

Another point, it's in the Glass family's best interest to keep this team very competitive until the next TV deal can be negotiated. The current success will carry for a bit, but if in 2 to 3 years we're back to a .500 team, they'd lose some leverage in the market. Part of our analysis should probably be assessing the likelihood that paying an additional $10-20/year in payroll now could reap many millions more in benefit on the next TV deal.

Looking at that Fangraphs Crowd Sourcing is a good start.

Let's start with Alex Gordon. Say he does get offers of 5/100. I think KC could get him with a competitive offer of 5/80-85. I don't think KC could turn down that type of deal... if you look at it from a WAR standpoint, he'd need to produce about 9 WAR over 5 years to make the contract work, and I think he does that, easily.

Now, looking at SP, I think Samardzija is really low. He'll get more because he's a name guy and overrated. Leake seems about right, though, and would be a nice stabilizing factor to add to KC's rotation for the next several years (which figure to be his prime years).

Zobrist is the one that really surprises me. I think the projections there are running behind his current market value, which apparently is around $15 million/year. That's going to be a tough sign, but if he IS signed for the figure Fangraphs suggests there, it makes alot of sense for KC.

Remember, too, that family and faith matter more to the Zobrists than anything else. Julianna is not a typical baseball wife, in that she is a breadwinner as well (very successful Christian musician, as I understand it. ) I don't think "highest bidder" is the No. 1 criterion for them.

I'd almost prefer to go cheap in RF so that we can go get a 2nd tier SP. I'd feel really good if we could get Zo and Gordon back, but I only expect 1 to resign. I hope I'm wrong!

Starting pitching has become so expensive. I wouldn't be surprised if Leake got that much money. You're paying over 10-12 million for any kind of established starter anymore. I think we need to do something to have insurance against our young guys not working out next year or one of our 4 current starters getting hurt. We don't know how Duffy is going to perform and we don't know what Medlen will give us over a whole season.

Given the success DM had this year, I'm sure he'll continue to look for under the radar moves we aren't even thinking about right now. But even though Cueto was all over the place, he gave us two huge ace performances in the playoffs. We've gotten by with less from our starters but you need somebody to step up there. Especially when you consider Herrera and Davis have pitched a ton of innings the last two years because of the playoffs. Ned will probably be very vigilant about getting them rest next season.

Is Rusty Kuntz done? I'm gonna miss that guy if so.

I'm also amazed that I'm writing about our 1B coach, though to be fair he does MUCH more than that.

He is contemplating retirement. Rumor has it that he has been contemplating it for the last 15 years.

I loved Rusty's exchange with Colon after the game winner.

"Yeah, Player!" "That's right!" "Gimme some!" "Let's Go!"

HELL YEAH!

From what I've read, he's talked about retirement after every season for so long, that no one is going to believe it until he does retire.

On their chat, there seems to be agreement that this is the year where the elites fall back some and the middle-range guys get the difference. Price, Greinke and Heyward are the elites at 150-200M. Then you have the almost-elites Cespedes, Cueto + Upton between 125-150M.

Do you have want to commit 125M to Justin Upton or do you want to buy Mike Leake, Ben Zobrist, Ryan Madson and a flier on say Mike Pelfrey? For a team that's middling, doesn't option (B) seem way more logical?


Now the Cubs or Dodgers are almost playoff locks (at least major contenders) for 2016. Buying quantity isn't important for them so they WILL get an elite player. But if you're AZ or Washington or Texas or......don't you bid up quantity?


Net: hard to see what that does to Alex. He's either a cheap option to Cespedes and he gets bid up from 80 to 100. Or else he's deemed an expensive option to Colby Rasmus and goes 85 to 75. Past years suggests any top-20 guy gets max dollars and more than crowd sourcing expec. Royals success 2015 with savvy mid level signings is the counterpoint.

So they think more money gets to the second and third tier guys? Interesting. If his top offer is $100 million or less, I think KC can keep him long-term if it wants to keep him.

Completely random thought, but Daniel Murphy might be a cheap LF backup option. Not sure what his D would look like - I'd guess "bad," but his offensive profile is interesting (even without the HR surge).

Glass just won the WS and nearly went back to back. He doesn't have to worry about PR right now. People trust Dayton to do what's best.

What are you referencing with your 18/yr question? Where does that figure come from?

After reading the Mets forum, Bob Dole figured he was already on our payroll.

Gordon can be had for 5/$75 & Zobrist for 4/$50.

Can the Royals afford that?

How about Colby Rasmus?

Rasmus:
Low-priced dingers, with extra potential attached. When Rasmus is right, he looks like the power demon he was in the postseason.

The Astros were glad they scooped him up. His next team probably will be, too, unless we're talking a four or five-year deal.

I don't think we could get them at that price. However, we would easily be able to afford both at that price and would do it in an instant.

I am on board with Dyson and Orlando in RF. They don't cost too much and the combination of those two is definitely serviceable. You also basically know what you are going to get from them. Their style of play works so well here.

I saw Dexter Fowler mentioned as well. His defense kind of sort of sucks and he strikes out a bit too much. He is not our kind of player. No thanks.

That's to be expected on declining Rios' and Guthrie's options.

Rios was projected to be paid $12,000,000 - buyout of $1,500,000 = $10,500,000 saved.
Guts was projected to be paid $10,000,000 - buyout of $3,200,000 = $6,800,000 saved.

Royals saved $17,300,000 by declining their options, only paying off $4,700,000 of their buyout.

Gotta pay for our success too...all our arbitration guys figure to get hefty increases.

Alex Gordon has declined his player option, and is now a free agent

PAY THE MAN DAVID

Hope he comes back. He's been around for so long that I like the idea of having a career Royal.

That's the strange thing about being in the World Series. The season ends and bam, right into free agency. No time to decompress from the season. Most everyone else has been waiting a month.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ben Zobrist tells me: “Gordo is their top priority and he should be. He is the face of the franchise. But we would love to come back, too.&quot;</p>&mdash; Jeffrey Flanagan (@FlannyMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/FlannyMLB/status/662067968008826880">November 5, 2015</a></blockquote>
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Yeah, kind of crazy how quickly it turns back to business.... but, usually in these parts the offseason changes can't come quick enough.

I'll take the trade off Every. Single. Year.

Yeah, I'm not letting the business harsh my mellow.

Pay the man

I was listening to 580 AM topeka recently. They were talking future Royals hall of famers. They listed:

1. Perez
2. Gordon
3. Holland
4. Davis
5. Escobar
6. Cain

They had ten total but I can't remember. Who would you gays believe could make it?

Salvy and Gordon are locks. Holland, no Davis, if he puts up the same numbers the next 2 years possibly. Esky, Possibly. Cain, doubtful

Might depend on what he does the next two years to finish strong, but Hosmer will likely be on that list. The guy blew away George Brett's record for playoff RBIs and has been a part of so many clutch plays the last two years. He has a shot to be in the top 10 for 2B, HR and RBI, and he may have 4 or 5 gold gloves by that point too.

I'm not gay but I'll give my opinion anyway.

Perez, if he can stay healthy for another 12 years.

*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***
 

Royals hall of fame? Perez and Gordon, maybe Davis. MLB? Perez, may have a 1% chance if he plays Catcher for the next 10 years.

The Royals have announced that they are going to QO Gordon. So, if we lose him, we'll at least get a draft pick.

They also declined the club option they had on Gomes.

That's a start.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Royals?src=hash">#Royals</a> have picked up the club options on RHP Wade Davis and SS <a href="https://twitter.com/alcidesescobar2">@alcidesescobar2</a> for the 2016 season.</p>&mdash; Royals (@Royals) <a href="https://twitter.com/Royals/status/662366379497029632">November 5, 2015</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">(Cont.) KC has also declined its club option for 2016 on OF Jonny Gomes, making him a free agent. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Royals?src=hash">#Royals</a></p>&mdash; Royals (@Royals) <a href="https://twitter.com/Royals/status/662366669998702592">November 5, 2015</a></blockquote>
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Sign jonny gomes back!

How much is a qualifying offer to an outfielder worth this year?

$15.8 mil.

Won't the Qualifying Offer also discourage other teams from signing him because they'd have to forfeit their #1 draft pick?

Discourage, yes. Prevent, no.

Especially for big money teams picking near the bottom of the first round or a team picking in the Top 10 (their pick cannot be forfeited, it is protected).

It will have an impact on his value in free agency, yes

Just for reference, the Top 10 is:

1. Phillies
2. Reds
3. Braves
4. Rockies
5. Brewers
6. Athletics
7. Marlins
8. Padres
9. Tigers
10. White Sox

He won't accept the QO (I don't know of anyone who has), but if nothing else that little exchange of activity earned Alex Gordon a raise of a few million dollars.

But those teams give up their next highest pick and KC still gets a selection at the end of the first round.

This seems uncalled for. Why so hostile?

I think it's safe to say I can not see any of these teams investing in Alex Gordon.

The Royals will non-tender Greg Holland, but DM says they may discuss a multi-year deal with him.

Holland is obviously out for 2016, so we'd be talking about a deal for 2017 and beyond.

Hosmer is probably the closest, but I honestly dont see any of these guys making the Hall. Royals Hall for sure though.

I think we have a team of really, solid guys top to bottom but no true studs like Miguel Cabrera or Albert Pujols.

Our guys certainly deliver in the clutch though.

Pretty much expected. Could see him on a deal similar to what they've done with Medlen... where he is paid a decent salary while rehabbing for a year, then has a little bit of a break for the team the year after.

Typo? Or auto correct. Whatever sounds best.

Interesting tidbit from Rosenthal's column on free agents and trade targets:

Here's a useful graphic courtesy of Max Rieper at Royals Review on the team's salary obligations the next three seasons. Might be worth sticking in the OP.

<img alt=" " class="vox-lazy-load lazy-loaded" data-chorus-asset-id="4238213" data-original="https://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0mBiafAeSHjt510dOnzKlPnMbAs=/1200x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/4238213/payroll.0.png" data-full-size="https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/PMqKBzmT8gD8wxnlWebcjyOXRtw=/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/4238213/payroll.0.png" src="https://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0mBiafAeSHjt510dOnzKlPnMbAs=/1200x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/4238213/payroll.0.png" style="height: auto; display: inline;">

Also, Baby Zobrist was born last night.

Good thing we have omar locked up.

That's awesome, thanks

This graph really supports my thoughts that we need to sign Gordon and Zobrist and just go with these next two years to try to win another World Series. The 2018 team is going to look very different. If they get four year deals we will clearly be able to afford both of those salaries in the years where we are concerned if they are still playing up to their contracts.

They won't pick up the last year of his option, he'll be gone in 2018 too. Dayton set the whole thing up from the beginning to have complete flexibility starting that season. We should be able to make some competitive offers for our own guys. Plus hopefully players like Mondesi, Cuthbert and Starling can contribute by that point.
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Lulz at the team giving Heyward the Brinks truck. LOFL

2018 is scary.

Omar Infante's contract is going to haunt us for awhile.

Hey guys, I woke up this morning and just remembered something:

WE WON THE WORLD SERIES.

How awesome is that? Still. Always.

It looked like a great signing at the time. Maybe we can get him to start using PED's.

This really happened...

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6hYry9F2QRM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Edited: After SK's response, subtract Holland's contract from this since he's non-tendered, so that's good. I also bet you can subtract Collins and Coleman's contract since I bet they both also will get non-tendered.