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A “Fair deal” is the best we can hope for in baseball contracts these days. |
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This article was posted on the Athletic yesterday. Not a lot of comments after the article, like normal, but it's a very important shift (pun intended) on the defensive approach. Also, I still hate Matheny.
With Paul Goldschmidt anchoring Cardinals infield, they’re preparing to shift more, at last JUPITER, Fla. – It was the second inning of a spring-training game, a moment with virtually no impact on the St. Louis Cardinals’ chances this season, at least at first glance. Matt Adams, ex-Cardinal and an extreme left-handed pull hitter, was batting. Third baseman Matt Carpenter did something he figures to do more than ever before in his career — he jogged over to the opposite side of the infield. Adams swung at Michael Wacha’s first pitch and hit a weak popup in foul territory. It was on the third-base side, where only shortstop Edmundo Sosa was left standing. By the time the ball landed in Sosa’s glove, Wacha, too, had run over and could have made the catch. A year ago, that shift might not have happened, because under manager Mike Matheny and infield coach Jose Oquendo, the Cardinals didn’t often practice what to do while three infielders were on one side of the diamond. The Cardinals led the majors in errors last season, just one indication of how poorly they have fielded in recent seasons. Shifting more aggressively is part of the planned solution. “Michael was right on it,” Shildt said. “We’re going to have more of an understanding of how to execute when we’re in the shift.” In 2019, the Cardinals employed three infielders on one side of the second-base bag less frequently than any team in the National League. Against left-handed batters, the Cardinals employed shifts 6.8 percent of the time. Against righties, they did it 1.9 percent of the time, according to Statcast data. By contrast, the data-driven Houston Astros shifted nearly 60 percent of the time against lefties and 21.2 percent of the time vs. righties. The Cardinals think it’s time to start catching up to one of the game’s most talked-about trends. “We’re preparing to do more of it,” general manager Michael Girsch said. “Now, whether we do a lot more of it will depend on how our pitchers are pitching and who our defenders are and all sorts of things, but we’re in a better position to do more of it.” The managerial change from Matheny to Shildt is among the factors prompting the Cardinals to shift more, team sources said, but there are two others. Oquendo moved infielders based on his deep knowledge of major league hitters, but he will give way to Stubby Clapp, who is in his first season as a major-league coach. The Cardinals are hopeful that, as good as Oquendo was at it, computer-supplied data will be even better. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt, a three-time Gold Glove Award winner, not only is athletic enough to cover the ground necessary to shift in extreme ways, he’s more than willing to do it. Last year, the Cardinals had Carpenter and José Martínez at first base in most games, and both were learning on the job, not always successfully. “I think the idea of the shift is you’re trying to put all seven of your players besides the pitcher and the catcher in the best spot possible to catch as many balls,” Goldschmidt said. “If guys are going to hit it to one spot, you want to be standing in the best spot possible. I think we’ve seen the numbers back that up. One step here or there can make a big difference, and the data does show you that.” Evidence suggests that shifting has tamped-down offense to some extent, but the data is not overwhelming. The two teams that employed three fielders on one side of the bag most frequently, the Astros and Tampa Bay Rays, each were among the top five in MLB in batting average on balls in play (BABIP) allowed. The Rays allowed opponents a .278 BABIP and the Astros .283. The Cardinals (.293) and Los Angeles Angels (.294), the teams that shifted the least, were both below average at converting batted balls into outs. The San Diego Padres (.305) also were among the least-aggressive teams with regard to shifting, and they, too, struggled defensively. Among the 10 worst teams in BABIP, the Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees, though, were also in the top five in shifts. “I’m not sure anyone knows what the exact right answer is for efficiency. I think we could definitely shift more and be in the range of: ‘This seems like the right thing to do,’ Girsch said. “But I’m not 100 percent sure that there’s an exact right answer that we were missing.” It’s also not universally popular, even among Cardinals infielders. Second baseman Kolten Wong, the team’s most agile infielder, isn’t a fan. Wong, who was a finalist for a Gold Glove Award in 2018, said he thinks shifting allows teams to employ infielders “who shouldn’t be playing the infield,” and he would like to see Major League Baseball rule against it. “It takes away from guys like me who pride ourselves on being able to make those plays,” Wong said. “I didn’t need to be put in any position. I know if I do my job and I read these pitchers, I read how they’re throwing the ball, I can make my best educated guess of how to get to balls. With other guys, you can see if they’re not really focused on that.” Wong said he will go along with the plan to shift more. Cardinals pitchers have already been told to expect more of it. One of the reasons Matheny backed down from an earlier attempt to shift more, sources say, was because of blowback from Oquendo and some of the pitchers. “I think we’re past the point of upsetting anybody,” Shildt said. |
Cards signed Matt Wieters yesterday to a minor league deal. Know he’s likely pretty washed but Pena is not exactly a high bar for backup catch to make an improvement on.
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I don’t understand the point you’re teying to make here. |
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Knizer. |
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Well, looks like the Harper sweepstakes is down to the Giants and Dodgers.
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I mean Jesus, Harper - can you imagine what you'll be capable of in that launching pad in Philly? That park is a dream for lefty power hitters and he'd just kill in it. And instead he, like Machado, wants to go to among the 5 worst hitting environments in baseball because they'll pay him some slight percentage more than Philadelphia would, all of which is just gonna be sitting in the bank when he dies. Oh, and **** the Cardinals again for not even engaging. God dammit that's irritating. But hey, at least they'll get to pay Goldschmidt the same AAV for his decline years while he plays a position that their best hitter already played while batting RH when they needed a lefty. So that's nice. |
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you can’t really fault the Cardinals for passing on Harper and Machado after watching how all this has played out in MLB. A bunch of teams are passing on them. Most need him as bad as we do. Looks like both were just going to the place who will pay the highest $. We can’t outbid The big boys. As long as we have a top 10 payroll, money won’t be why we fail. We failed last year in part because we gave $100 million to Fowler, Cecil, Holland, Gregerson etc. We spent top 10 money last year. Just on the wrong players. That’s not a Dewitt issue but a Mo issue. |
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And if he ends up going to either of those ****ball teams, especially the Giants, I'll be rooting for him to do exactly that. |
Harper to Phillies
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Bill DeWitt is a crook and John Mozeliak is a pussy.
****ing Cardinals. Jesus Christ. |
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————————————————- Manager Gabe Kapler heard the big news from fans in the stands during the Philadelphia Phillies spring training game. His team appears to have won the Bryce Harper sweepstakes, finalizing a 13-year, $330 million deal with the free-agent outfielder, league sources told ESPN's Jeff Passan on Thursday. Harper's deal includes a no-trade clause and has no opt-outs, league sources told ESPN, indicating that he is committed to the Phillies for possibly the rest of his career. |
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A) Any owner that wasn't effectively gifted his team and hasn't had it paid for free and clear for 25 years isn't in the same boat as the Cardinals. Debt service matters, I'll acknowledge that. What's DeWitt's excuse when he sold the !@#$ing parking garages that came gratis for 80% of what the team cost? B) Any team that can't count on 35,000/gm to come out to watch a product even when it's demonstratively lousy isn't in the same boat as the Cardinals. Risk matters and DeWitt has none with the ballpark and the team this ingrained into the culture of the city. C) Any team that doesn't have it's own bar district that is doing damage to the rest of the downtown scene while continuing to line the owners pockets isn't in the same boat as the Cardinals. That's a cash register that's come at the expense of the rest of downtown but far be it for DeWitt to put some of that money back into the ballclub. D) Any team who doesn't go from a potential WC team to a genuine contender with the addition of a desperately needed LH bat who they could add to the lineup to replace one of the 2-3 worst regulars in baseball last year is not in the same boat as the Cardinals. Now I am aware that this probably doesn't pare the list down to zero - there are other teams that goddamn well should've made this move and have no excuse to have sat on the sidelines. But I do not root for those teams and thus give zero ****s about them. Bill Dewitt, the billionaire owner of the St. Louis Cardinals, who has sat on a decade of year over year record profits, who's team is sitting on literal billions of positive equity and who presently has the worst RFer in baseball playing at the top of a RH heavy lineup and has spent several seasons now looking up at their chief rival, has not one single mother****ing excuse at all for not pursuing Bryce Harper. No, I'm not going to hold every team in baseball as accountable as the Cardinals. Apart from just being equal parts cheap and stupid over the last several years (previously stupid, now cheap), they have no reason not to have made this move. |
If he took 13/330 with no opt outs, he would have taken 10/300.
Instead, the Cardinals end up giving that money to the Cecils and Gregersons of the world. |
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I would have been happy with a 13 year/$330 million contract. I just posted 3 posts above that I advocated $350 million if that’s what it took. That said.....I understand from a state of baseball, risk/reward perspective why they didn’t pull the trigger. |
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With Stanton sitting at $325, I think it Harper and Boras wanted to be able to break the record. I can't speak to why - it's only gonna last as long as it takes Trout to re-negotiate or hit FA, if it even lasts that long. The Cardinals should've given it to him. If baseball's revenues continue up and the players get the luxury tax increased (they will), even a 5% increase annually is conservative and 13 years down the road that money will be nominal; maybe 10% of the Cardinals payroll for a player who will have, with reasonable health, settled into franchise icon status. It's just absurdly chickenshit. |
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Listened to a couple of podcasts that said Gammons was in camp and he’s reporting that his “feel” after talking with the Cardinals is that Carlos is out till the first of July.
Just ticks me off. You just never know if a player just phones it in once they get paid. The dude grew up literally dirt poor. Seems like he would do the off season workouts to keep his shoulder and arm in the best shape as possible. What a waste. :shake: |
Went to the game today. Sat in row 9 behind home plate. Perfect spot to see the movement on pitches.
Flaherty was sooo dominant today. No one got even close to understanding what was coming or when they guessed right, couldnt square it up. The movement on his slider is really amazing from this viewpoint. Hicks came out throwing 103 on a windy and cold day. His 88 mph slider also have great movement. And he is now throwing it for a strike. If he can throw that slider for a strike, he will be the best closer in baseball soon. Reyes looked rough, it was his first time pitching in about a year so that's to be expected. Fowler looked lost on every pitch of every AB besides one pitch. Was not even close to looking like a professional hitter. He was a carbon copy of the player who was 2nd worst MLB player last year. He also misplayed a ball in the outfield very badly. https://i.imgur.com/axvdW09.jpghttps://i.imgur.com/c21n5xI.jpghttps://i.imgur.com/eKL3qEA.jpg\ <script async="" src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script> |
Hicks is for sure locked in as the closer? Do you expect Shildt to mix and match a bit or stick with a guy?
Trying to decide how many auction $$ to try throwing at Hicks... |
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We’ll see what happens, but Shildt has made it clear he’s okay determining his closer by matchup. Hicks has the biggest upside but Miller and Martinez (and Reyes?) will probably gets looks at points during the year.
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Opening day quickly approaching, anyone gonna try and make it?
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Of course everyone goes the year after I go.
Hope you guys dont get snow and wind like last year. |
TO goes deep again, his 4th. Nice compact stroke driven to the opposite field.
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Everyone was shocked that the fly ball got out. It wasn’t wind aided. It was just raw power. The Yankee fans around me were impressed. One fan said, That’s Stanton level raw power. O’Neill spent the off season working with the new hitting coach on pitch recognition. Spent time learning and hitting with Carpenter on his ranch in Texas. Fowler still looks lost. If the Cardinals want to win. The best players that give them a chance to win have to play. Martinez and O’Neil give you a better chance to win. The only reason Fowler starts the season in RF, is money. That’s totally unacceptable. https://i.imgur.com/BzP9hoh.jpg |
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I don’t think you can “learn” the strike zone once you got the the show
Kinda like accuracy in football |
:cuss: this pisses me off do much. 25 lbs gained innjust a few months? Your a professional athlete, act like one. From Goolds article:
if Marcell Ozuna continues to struggle with his health or Dexter Fowler struggles to produce toward the end of spring. Ozuna has yet to have a hit this spring, and after reporting to camp about 25 pounds heavier has had to get his fitness in the first few weeks of the team's workouts. The Cardinals see Ozuna getting closer to game-ready shape in recent days, though he has yet to be cleared to appear in left field as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery. |
At least we haven’t paid that ****er. Let his ass walk, get the pick, and go O’Neill Bader Carlson in 2020.
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And while disappointing if he doesn’t produce again this year, they gave up jack dick to get him.
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Fowler needs to be cut.
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We have had an issue for years of our sluggers or mini-sluggers not recognizing the pitch was going to end up way outside or in the dirt and swinging at the pitch. I've watched the "regulars" in 4 televised spring training games. Saw them in person for 2 additional games. The regulars have mainly batted against MLB pitching. There is a different approach that you can see in how they take their AB's. Heard a conversation from Goldy to Fowler and Carp saying "remember what the tape says, at the point we got him. Just pay attention to the point". I have no idea what that meant but Carp and Fowler both agreed and nodded in agreement.Any ideas you baseball nerds? |
When will Mike Trout be a free agent?
Not that it will matter to me as a Cardinal fan, just curious in general? |
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Don't worry though - we're saving all our dry powder for him and Lindor and Correa and Betts, etc.... |
Are they all free agents after 2020?
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He needs to string fans along for another 3-4 years. If they're all FAs in one season, how can he possibly convince the BFIB that's he's trying really hard for another 3-5 seasons. Fortunately, those guys are pretty staggered. |
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Hamas/DJ,
Thoughts on Gorman? I know he’s a few years away from the show yet but does he project more as a Kris Bryant or Joey Gallo? I pulled a rare rookie card of him and wonder if I should sell now or if the hype is real. |
Another year of baseball.
This Pirates fan is ready to talk baseball again. Less ready for Nutting. |
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Pinging DJ/Hamas or anyone rise in the know......watching this player, Dylan Carson this spring. The dude looks like a “player”.
Watching him take swings, run the bases, play the outfield etc he looks like someone who has a high ceiling in the major leagues. I’ve not googled the guy. wondering about my eyeball test. Just watching the guy, he looks to be a keeper. |
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He's been holding his own while well underaged in brutal hitters leagues. He's stayed under the radar because of that but he's going to wreck shit in the TX league this year and end up on a TON of national lists. |
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Gorman hit a bomb in the 7th. Nice looking stroke. Give him 2 more years and I think he will be ready.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BREAKING: Star center fielder Mike Trout and the Los Angeles Angels are finalizing a record-breaking 12-year contract worth more than $430 million, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Details: <a href="https://t.co/bROnnC11Uh">https://t.co/bROnnC11Uh</a></p>— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1108008799288332289?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 19, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> |
Poor Mozeliak.
How's he ever gonna convince the fans that they were in it 'til the end? He'll have a difficult time selling his usual "we made a competitive offer" schlock this time around. |
So I read thru some of Goold's chat this morning.
Is he a little more high and mighty than usual? Is that a recent thing? Seemed to be pretty snippy about Fowler and someone else who I can't remember. Also, they're gonna extend Goldschmidt. I would think. |
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Goold used to be a great source of some under the radar snippets in his chats if you'd read between the lines a bit. Now he mostly just chirps at people who dare question the mighty Mozeliak. And of course they're going to extend Goldschmidt. If you can think of a stupid thing to do, that's what they'll do. They'll pay a 1b only, RH hitting, high-strikeout slugger who will be 32 when the extension starts $30 million/season through his age 37 season so they can block some combination of Gorman, Montero or Baker into the future. I'm still dumbfounded that their 'splash' move was a friggen RH hitting 1b. What the **** is this organization doing? |
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After Matheny is gone its ohh yeah we knew all about his issues with players, he lost Molina, hadn't talked to Fowler in months, his way or the highway approach. Mo and Matheny fought all the time about bullpen usage etc. etc. Even when they report things like Ozuna showed up at camp 25 lbs heavier or Carlos didn't follow the Cardinals off season workout routine its information fed to them from the front office. |
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Then a week after Saxons article, Matheny gets fired and Goold started letting the same stuff slip out. It was an awful look from him and I haven't really trusted anything he's had to say since. |
Just seemed like he took the company line more than he used to. Oh well.
I enjoy Bernie more, he may not be as connected but I still enjoy him. I didn't care for his recent article when he seemed to insinuate the goal isn't the division but just staying in and getting a WC spot to say you made the playoffs. I mean, the teams moves seem to say that though so what do I know. |
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That's a direct !@#$ing quote from Bill DeWitt. He said in an interview with Goold that their goal is 90 wins. My friend, that ain't winning you the NL Central. You don't have to insinuate what the Cardinals goal is. You don't have to extrapolate it from the moves they make. Bill DeWitt has flat out given it to you. He's won everything there is to win. He's done everything there is to do. Bill DeWitt has no realized that there's more profit in being competitive than there is in doing what it takes to make yourself a championship team. He knew full well that Harper would've pushed them towards the latter but the sunk costs of Fowler plus the cheap production of Martinez and O'Neill can get him to the former. All while making him a lot more money. This is an easy team to dislike right now. |
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Its basic human instinct. If its your job to inform your readers the truth about a team, the bad and good but your worried about your access being taken away, your not going to write the bad stuff that will get you kicked out. I'm not saying that beat writers should become investigative journalists. Just tell us the big truths that are harming the team. Goold knew all this, He didn't print shit. Saxon didn't worry about being kicked out of the locker room. We found out important information as fans, Thats their basic job. The team is in a better place. Everyone "won" but Matheny, as it should have been. |
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Saxon had numerous conversations with Fowler and had a lighthearted, if not cordial relationship with him. He was using Fowler's own phrasing in a tongue in cheek way and when he got unfairly put on blast, Goold kicked a little dirt in his face while he was on the ground. It was just a shitty thing to do. |
I think after Hudsons 8 strikeouts in 5 innings yesterday the rotation is set for opening day
Mikolas Flaherty Wacha Waino Hudson okay lets talk bullpen. They are going to carry 7 pitchers in the bullpen Duh Locks: Reyes Hicks Miller Gant That leaves 3. No options to the minors Schreve Meyers Add Brebbia theres your 7 Put on DL to start the season: Martinez Gregerson Cecil To the AAA rotation: Gomber Ponce de leon I get the BP right? Reyes Hicks Miller Gant Schreve Meyers Brebbia |
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Having Gomber and Leon ready to step in when Wacha and Waino flame out this season is essential. We all know that its is a "when" situation not "if" they flame out. |
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Scott Boras getting fired for telling players to hold out and losing millions for his clients and now he just gets smashed by $100M in an extension. |
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Fangraphs just updated their data with pitch framing. Yadi gained ten wins to his WAR and is now the greatest defensive catcher ever by their metrics by a comfortable margin.
I think he just made the HOF |
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Molina better be in the HOF.
Signed a Pirates fan. |
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So yeah, Yadi's defensive runs above average spiked way ahead of some guys like Carter and Boone, but that's because Carter and Boone didn't get any adjustment at all. Pudge only got a small one for his waning years and he's still not too far behind Molina after Molina got essentially a 150 run kicker; nearly doubled his career numbers. I think this does a lot to contextualize things going forward and will help provide a more balanced playing field for catchers in the future. But I'm not sure what use it gives us historically if it doesn't provide the same adjustments for players who played prior to 2008. |
So I was kinda thinking out loud a bit this morning and was directed to Ozzie Smith as an obvious HoF 'peak defense, tolerable offense' HoF player. And my immediate reaction was to say "yeah, that seems about right"
But then I thought on it a little more and frankly, Ozzie's offense, though paltry and ineffective by today's standards, was actually pretty decent for the bulk of his career given his era. He made a ton of contact, stole bases and scored runs. He was an above average offensive player who was good at a style of game unique to the era. Moreover, Ozzie set the standard for defense at ANY position and I don't think he's been met since. I believe Ozzie Smith was the single greatest defensive player in baseball history. Molina's offense for the majority of his career has been somewhat in line with the style at the time but I don't believe it's been as valuable to this era as Ozzies was to his era. Moreover, while Yadi may be among the best defensive catchers ever, I don't believe he is head and shoulders above a handful of contenders (as Ozzie is) nor do I believe he ranks with Ozzie as a purely transformational defensive player. So by that review, I'd say he's the same kind of player and a similar analysis as Ozzie Smith...but not quite as good. Okay, so lets use the transitive property here. If 80% of Ozzie Smith = Yadier Molina, what's 80% of Ozzie Smith in a historic context? Well damn...that's really really easy. That's Omar Vizquel. Omar has 11 gold gloves, was the peak defender of his era, could be a complementary offensive player on a championship caliber ballclub, was a great leader and consummate professional. He's remarkably comparable to Molina if you're willing to consider across positions. And Omar is PROBABLY gonna make the Hall. It's gonna take some time, but he'll probably get there. But it's not exactly a cinch. Even after this adjustment, Yadi remains firmly in the 'will probably get there after some effort' camp, IMO. And I'm not sure I agree with that conclusion (I think he should go in after maybe 2-3 years; not the 6-8 it could well take), but when you see what the voters are doing, I think that's probably what will happen. |
Off topic a little , but Ozzie was actually one of my first words as a baby. Dad's always been a bit of an obsessed cardinal fan so it was pretty natural.
He has a lot of connections at KMOX so we used to go sit in the KMOX box when I was tiny and theyd sit me on the counter to watch Ozzie. We always went to a weekend series for my bday and i'd get to take a couple friends. We'd go out and eat at his restaurant. Sucks that it's not there anymore and I have no clue if the food was actually good. |
Cards are close to an extension with Goldschmidt on an extension for around 5 yrs $110MM.
Doesn't sound too bad really. On a bizarre note, Fowler homered 2 times today and Ozuna had a HR. |
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Paul Goldschmidt and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/cardinals?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#cardinals</a> closing in on five-year extension worth around $130 million, according to source. <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Ken_Rosenthal</a> had sides were close.</p>— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) <a href="https://twitter.com/dgoold/status/1108831545018728448?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 21, 2019</a></blockquote>
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DJ meltdown in 3...2...1...
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So I'm new to CP, and I just found this thread. As a lifetime Cards fan (dad took me to my first game 45 years ago) I was wondering:
How do we feel about the Goldy signing (here in AZ everyone calls him Goldy), is he enough to get us over the hump? Also, what's our starting rotation looking like at this point? Realistically what are our chances of doing anything in the playoffs? Oh, and Yady is HOFer for sure. The best defensive catcher in my lifetime. |
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