But with McDuffie, Watson and Williams making ass-wipe money, you can still pay Sneed and have a really cheap DB group.

And Sneed's just awfully difficult to replace. He's an integral part of our coverage schemes.

You have to pay Sneed. He's the fulcrum of the Spags system.

One really simple way to do it is to find DL that are on draft pick contracts, losing Clark will help a ton.

Yeah - while Reid technically 'replaced' Mathieu, it's been Sneed that's taken on much of the swiss-army knife responsibilities that Mathieu had.

Reid is playing a much more conventional strong safety sort of role from what I can see.

But in reality a player can have a extremely high AAV and not even get close to that. It's like when Taysom Hill signed that 4 year 140mil contract and people acted like his $35M AAV was real. Teams/players can make the AAV whatever they want. So why even talk about that and pretend it's real? Let's talk about the real numbers.

-- Signed, the 2022 NFL Off-season.

Ugh...still irritated.

Because regardless of whether you're talking about AAV or real numbers, it's still relative to the rest of the players at the position. If you're wanting to talk solely about one guy's contract, sure - go with real numbers, guarantees, not AAV.

But when you're talking about 2 or more players, it's a simple ratio whether you take out the balloon years or not. The only time it would be relevant is if one guy had a balloon year and the other guy doesn't.

Like comparing Josh Allen's contract to Kirk Cousins'.

Sam Williams maybe, but I don't think going in needing a RDE and a LT and expecting that out of one draft is smart.

For example, Tyreek has guarantees in the realm of 3 years and $70M dollars.

To get a $20M AAV for Juju, you're probably looking at 3 years and about $40M in guarantees.

Either way, we're talking about between a 1.5 to 1.75:1 ratio. Is Juju worth slightly more than half of what Tyreek is worth? That's the real question.

I like JuJu alot, good player.

I just don't think I'd pay him when theoretically, he's doing alot of what you drafted Sky Moore to do.

No, it isn't.

So you sign that Ninja guy that Crow likes away from GB as a backup plan.

I still really struggle to get my head around paying top of the market money for someone that just doesn't really fit our system. OBJ is one of the best examples of a mis-matched part I can come up with in all of football.

He isn't a bad player. I think he's probably a pretty good one, in fact. He's just not a good fit in this system.

That was a move that there weren't any other options so the Chiefs just went with it because they couldn't realistically go into a year without a LT.

ROFL

It's Njiman, and Meck is the guy that likes him.

Maybe not.

I still think he's here long term for some reason, I think they like him alot.

Yep but what happens if you go into next offseason with another hole at LT and one at DE?

I can't imagine they go into the draft with those two holes.

Meck, Crow and one other guy (KC Native maybe) all look the same to me. Invariably I lose track of who wants who among that group.

Staylor's easy to remember because he calls me an asshole when I disagree with him. So if I really REALLY hate someone, it's probably because Staylor likes him.

Dear god, DJLN threw up the Njiman batsignal Meck will be here soon.

He's only coming back if he moves off his demands you can't realistically pay him that contract for his play in the system.

Right.

So when they turn the lights up at the bar and your choices are a drunk 6 or your palm, you go ahead and take the drunk 6 ultimately knowing but not caring that she's probably a sober 4.

But ****ing hell, you don't have to marry her the next morning.

I'm calling him Ninja from now on.

It's like when they used to mislabel songs on purpose on Napster so they wouldn't get pulled down. So much Betallica on my computer in college...

It's possible we can steer clear of the spray if we just don't make it searchable.

That's actually an excellent analogy.

They may have to overpay a little bit, but no way they blow it out.

But this is the reason it's so dumb to argue he should change to RT or whatever. There's only so many humans on earth that can play LT. He's 26 and has shown can play LT at a high level. If he hits FA, he's getting paid.

He needs a strong OL way more than he needs big name receivers. Give him a strong OL and it won’t matter who is playing receiver with Mahomes. He also needs a solid defense. His college career is evidence that you can be an awesome QB with an awesome offense and still lose a ton of games if your defense is absolute garbage.

The biggest problem for the Chiefs is the tackle position. Everything else is pretty straight forwards.

At WR, I think it's clear what's happening. They are going to let Hardman walk. You sign JuJu to a two or three year deal. That give you a WR corp of JuJu, MVS, Moore, and Toney for the next two seasons. Not only is that a lot of stability, but if Toney develops into a #1 WR, they you can take care of him when the time comes. For as bad as out WR room looked this offseason, Veach has done great work in stabilizing things at the position without breaking the bank.

EDGE - This is where the cap space has to be used IMO. While we need to continue to draft defensive playmakers, I don't think we will ever be in a position to really draft the player we need where we are drafting. The scary thing is that there isn't much out on the market to get excited about at the moment.

OT - I still think Brown is an option moving forward. Far from perfect, you just have to get him at the right price. RT is a position we need to just continue to throw mid-round draft picks at. At the bare minimum you are establishing some depth.

If you take out Tyreek’s low cap hit this year and his ballooned cap hit in the last year of his contract, you’ve got the meat of his contract with is 3 years.

2023-$31.2 million
2024-$24.8 million
2025-$28 million

That’s an average of $28 million for those 3 years. That’s basically a QB contract. As of right now Tyreek’s $28 million average would be the 11th highest QB contract in 2024.

With Mahomes contract that isn’t realistic. In that same timeframe Mahomes contract averages $45.7 million so you’re looking at almost $74 million for 2 players.

And yes I know Patrick has the contract set up for cap relief but Clark isn’t cutting checks for Patrick every year.

It wasn’t feasible or responsible

We're probably going to have to trade up if we want a DE in the draft. Otherwise, just throw numbers at it.

Exactly how I feel about Juju. Skyy and Toney are cheap for 3 years after this year.

Juju’s cap hit year 1 (2023) is low. In 2024 you can cut MVS and get $10 million back when Juju’s cap hits balloon.

But you can use a high pick to draft another WR as well.

But you can't just 'take out the low 1st year' because he was due to make substantially more than that. They 'traded' a low hit this year for larger hits in the subsequent years.

It's 3/$72 or 4/$95. So between $23-$25 million/yr (more likely to be $23) depending on when they pull the chute.

Yup, that's probably what you'd do.

I just feel like you could probably get JJSS on something like 4/80 w/ 3/$50 being the 'meat' of the deal.

Is that cheap? No, but as was previously mentioned, it's about 2/3 of what Hill costs. Is he 2/3 as valuable as Hill? In a vacuum I'd say he isn't; the marginal upgrade from 'pretty good' to 'HOF talent' is incredibly rare and incredibly valuable. But if he comes in here and performs at a high level, he's the devil you know at that point.

So take Hill out of the conversation and just say "Is it worth $16.5 million/yr to get 1,100 yards and 7 TDs?"

Eh...market says it probably is. Teams will pay more for less in the coming years. If JJSS continues to play at that level, I think you go ahead and give him that deal.

Then folks shouldn’t be mad at Juju’s $24 million avg I speculated about.

Bc these contracts will be similar. If Tyreek’s averages $23 million (ish) then Juju’s will likely be around $16 million

Again, I think it's a disconnect in communication.

Folks that are 'mad' at your speculation are viewing the deal in terms of practical guarantees - JJSS ain't gonna touch $24 million in practical guarantees. It may be akin to the $24 million in APY while Hill's APY is at $30 million.

Gotta be an apples to apples comparison in order to make any sense.

As a philosophy, if you didn't wanna pay Tyreek, I don't know how you turn around and then pay JJSS.

Just look for the next JJSS and keep drafting.

So what do we do if Jones won't sign an extension? Just pay him $27M then let him walk? Try to trade him now? Other?

Pay him what you have to and forget about it.

Dude is the best DT in the league now.

Interesting exercise:

Let's say that Hill's practical guarantees are worth about 75% of his APY (the math is easier; its nearer 77%).

And let's say that JJSS ends up with an APY of $24 million. 75% of that would be $18 million in practical guarantees at that point.

You interested at that rate? 3 years, $54 million? So figure a $20 million signing bonus, base salaries of 5, 13 and 16 to total $34 million in salary on top of the bonus. Cut him after year 3 with $5 million in dead money? Cap hits of $10, $18 and $21 million in the first 3 years? Probably have to injury guarantee at least half of that year 3 salary at worst; probably fully guarantee it at the start of the 2024 league year for 2025.

It would be a better deal than what Kirk got, IMO. Kirk would have slightly better numbers in the first 2 years but gives it back in year 3. But the Jags also payed a "we really suck" premium.

Not a lot of guys like Juju out there and in his situation. He’s not easy to replace. You’re also starting over with a rookie WR again if you go that route and we all know how that goes.

Juju is a 1,500 yard, 8-10 TD caliber player and he’s only 25.

Money isn’t an issue either. They were gonna keep Tyreek at a fair price until his price point ballooned out of control due to Davante Adams.

I think we can get Juju for 2/3 of what Tyreek got

Veech has already proved he won't overpay. He'll have a number with Jones and if Jones wants more, he'll figure something else out.

I guess you just let him play one more contract year, then maybe try to compete against the open market. Dude would be the biggest defensive free agent to hit the market in years. I can't even think of the last one this big.

I would do that in a heartbeat. Go into the draft and pick another WR in the first 3 rounds and roll into 2023 with:

Juju
MVS
Toney
Moore
Rookie

Philosophy is one thing - math is another altogether.

They were willing to pay Tyreek until the Adams trade/contract rat-****ed the market. JJSS at 75% of what Hill is getting may be in their price range at that point.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I also don't see how, unless you see a TON of improvement from Moore over the course of this season, you can possibly go into next year with a 1-2-3 of MVS - Moore - Toney. That's a pile of shit.

They're gonna pay for somebody. And sooner or later you can't go full GB and just keep cycling out Mahomes weapons. You need a throughput somewhere.

There is absolutely no way that Bolton signs for less than $15 mil a year. I'd bet my dick on that. Hitchens got $9 mil/yr from us and by the time Bolton gets paid it'll be like 7 years since Hitchens got his contract. Bolton is worth substantially more and then with how contracts increase basically every year, that puts him at $15 mil/yr at the bare minimum. If we don't pay him that someone will.

In a 'heartbeat'? No, I wouldn't.

It's not a deal I'd be super stoked to offer given JJSS injury history and the fact that he still appears to have a fungible skill-set to me.

But would I grit my teeth and take the deal? Yeah, probably. We're gonna want to maintain a little stability.

That's....not how it works....at all.

I think continuity is going to come at a price. We can't go into every offseason replacing 3/4 of our receiving group. Plus Juju's skillset is going to help Kelce continue his career IMO.

They have to find some continuity in their price range. I don't care if Juju is the guy but they're going to have to find someone they can give a multi year deal to and ride with them.

I really need to read all the responses before formulating one from an hour ago

I think if you keep Juju around...plus having Toney and Moore in the fold? That gives you the opportunity to swing at the fences for that outside WR who has the potential to turn into a WR1.

You mean they can maybe finally quit drafting midgets at wide receiver? I’m down with that.

One thing to think about is that continuity on offense seems to really carry year to year vs defensively.

I think the Chiefs want to sign Juju long term, but they definitely have a set price and they won't go above it. Travis Kelce being the same ****ing beast that he is this year helps them as well, since he doesnt seem to have declined at all this year. They could go into next year feeling fine without JJSS returning, because they have Kelce as basically our #1, MVS has shown that he can be at least half way decent. Now all they have to do is hope that Moore or Toney develop into solid WR and get a guy in FA and the draft. If Kelce had shown signs of moderate decline, then you would have to resign JJSS.

I'd also take Mecole on a ~$10 mil/yr contract. You should be able to get him on the same deal as MVS.

I haven't been in favor of keeping JuJu around because I think he's gonna cost more than most people think. I prefer the churn and burn strategy of one year 'prove it' guys looking to get paid.

That said, this is the first reason I've seen that makes me give some pause to that mindset. Maybe he is worth paying a little more to (not $20 mil. + mind you) to help preserve Kelce and his effectiveness longer. I had not really considered that.

I'm not the biggest expert on X's and O's, so this is a question and not me saying you're wrong.

Why is this the case? Isn't JJSS more of a possession receiver and not a burner/big time deep threat? If so wouldn't that mean he's running similar routes to Kelce, so that keeps whoever is defending him in the same area as Kelce? Wouldn't a burner help Kelce more?

Honestly just curious. TIA!

While true....you also want someone to help alleviate some of that pressure over the middle of the field. You can play Juju and Kelce off of each other by crossing them or having them split to different parts of the field. You can also give Kelce a breather and not worry about missing the short to intermediate stuff that he does.

Makes sense thanks!

Surely you jest.

The football field is 53 1/3 yards wide and 100 (120 if you count the endzones) yards long, so I think Kelce and Juju can stay out of each other's way. We have speed in other guys besides Hardman, who seems to lose his way quite often.

He’s pretty much a small TE out there that is big enough to out muscle DB’s and fast enough to easily out run LB’s. He’s a RB when he has the ball if you remember him breaking multiple arm tackles in SF.

Kelce is constantly doubled by a LB and DB bc he’s nearly impossible to guard. Look at the replay of this play:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Chiefs?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Chiefs</a> WR Juju Smith-Schuster set season highs in catches (7) &amp; rec. yards (124) &amp; had TD catch in Week 7. Had 9 catches for 85 yards in his last game vs. Ten. (10/25/20 w/ Pit.). <a href="https://twitter.com/ChiefsFocus?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ChiefsFocus</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ChiefsKingdom?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ChiefsKingdom</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/TENvsKC?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#TENvsKC</a> <a href="https://t.co/OGqTvSPYYS">pic.twitter.com/OGqTvSPYYS</a></p>&mdash; Chiefs Kingdom (@ChiefsFan4Lyfe) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChiefsFan4Lyfe/status/1587645943482093569?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 2, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Andy uses Juju to manipulate that in his play design. When you have 2 guys capable of destroying the middle of the field then it’s hard to cover both.

Andy lined them up next to each other. If you look to JuJu’s left, Kelce is drawing all the coverage of the LB and safety leaving Juju wide open. Beautiful execution and play design

Tl;dr: multiple YAC monsters who are great route runners are hard to cover in the middle of the field, especially with a great play designer

Why wouldn't you take Hardman on the same deal as MVS? Why? He's familiar with the system and is the most dangerous guy on the team with the ball in his hands. He's the 2nd best WR this franchise has drafted since Dwayne Bowe, so let's not act like we can just easily replace him through the draft and we're not gonna get a person with his production and availability (the guy has never missed a game). If we would just let him return kicks and punts then he's even more valuable. He was an all pro returner as a rookie. They know what he is now and it's not a #1 or #2 receiver, so he should be returning kicks.

My question was why would JJSS help Kelce so much and extend his career and your answer is to give me the dimensions of the field? Well ok then.

Christian Kirk may be the most comparable WR to JJSS in terms of what he should expect contract wise - age/position/production. Too bad the Jags chose to nuke the WR market and make it such an unfavorable contract for the team.

Yep.

You have to make a trade for an undervalued player at one of those positions, as the FA pool looks pretty shallow for those spots.

This is why I keep pimping Nijman.

Either way, you need a LT and a DE, and you're not getting both in one draft, barring a miracle.

As for the WR room in '23, I would just about bet that Hardman is gone, and we keep ONE of Juju or MVS. Whichever they decide will be harder to replace. I think it's easier to replace the speedster actually, than the superior route running physical, great hands guy. But I can see the other argument. Cutting MVS frees up like $9m, and that'll be a chunk of what it would take to bring back Juju. In the meantime, Toney is your new Hardman, Moore will get better with more time in the system, and you draft a speedster in the mid rounds to stretch the field.

But that's just my opinion.

That's kind of the way I see it, Chris. A lot of what we do in the off season with the WR room will depend on Toney's acclamation to the team and the production MVS brings. Keeping Juju would help in extending Kelce's career and give PMII another reliable mid to long range weapon. It really doesn't matter if you get a 15 yard route with 25+ YAC or a 35 yard bomb and 5 YAC, it's still 40 yards. The potential for that 15 yarder + is far greater than the occasional 35.

Don't forget letting Hardman walk nets another $4.4M.

How does letting Hardman walk net anything? He's a free agent, he doesn't account for anything on the books currently. Letting him walk only nets the opportunity cost of what his contract would be if we kept him, which will be more than $4.4 million a year.

It'll be a lot more than that. Somebody will see him as the missing piece in their offense, a home run hitter (which he IS, under the right circumstances) and back up a truckload of money.

Idk, I cant see Mecole getting a truckload amount of money from anybody
But it only takes one team...

When it's all said and done, I don't think they'll be looking for a LT. I think he's gonna sign. Just a gut feeling though.

that's because you're looking through the lens of a fan who had hopes of what Hardman could be, and are disappointed that didn't happen.

The reality of what Hardman IS is that he's a hell of a weapon with the ball in his hands in space. He's pretty electric. He's just not a #1 or #2 downfield receiver. But screens, jet sweeps, quick slants, man, if you don't get him down immediately, he's off to the races, and nobody can catch him.

He's a weapon. Somebody is going to pay for that.

No one is going to back up the truck for Hardman. Show me any WR that has gotten a truckload of money when they haven't ever went over 700 yds. He's averaged less than 600 yds a season and plays with Mahomes. He would have had to almost hit 1000 yds this season to even get a Christian Kirk type of deal. He's gonna get an MVS type of deal.

MVS has everything you'd want in a WR

4.37 speed
6'4" and 200 lbs

well, that's $10m a year. I call that hefty sum. I don't think anyone's going to pay him Tyreek money, no.

I don't think I would pay him that, not if you have Toney, who can do a lot of similar things.

I like MVS fine, but we'll probably have to decide on either him or Juju next year; I kind of doubt we can afford both.

You're high if you think JJSS should only be expecting Christian Kirk money. If things continue like they are, then Juju is going to have a 1400 yd, 1200 yd, 900 yd, and 800 yd season in 6 seasons. He had 2 bad seasons because of injury. Kirk has has one season with anywhere close to 1000 yds.

If Juju wants to he's going to get close to $25 mil/yr.

There will definitely be that one team. Christian Kirk got $72 million, and someone is going to give Mecole something close to that.

Guys with his speed and game breaking ability are rare, and he has the added advantage of being in the spotlight with KC the last 4 years. He's getting paid big somewhere.

Yup, I'm not thinking that far ahead but I've already resigned myself to believing Smith is a one year rental, which is fine. You can't go pay him $25 million a year when you wouldn't pay Hill that. It's not happening.

Now if he decides he's about legacy over money and will take a reasonable deal, it's a different story. We will see what matters to him.

Kirk has put up 4.5 yrs, 64 games, 3400 yards,21 tds, 149 first downs
JJSS has put up 5.5 yrs, 70 games, 4349 yards, 28 tds, 206 first downs

JJSS has played with HOF QBs, Kirk has not. Just saying - they are not actually that far apart.

If I am the Chiefs, I basically offer the Kirk deal +5% to JJSS, and if he takes it, great. Otherwise, that money needs to go to the trenches.

If the Packers tender Nijman at anything less than a 1st round RFA tender, then I'm making that move to replace OBJ. If it's a 1st, then I'd rather make a move up for Jaelyn Duncan.

I'd also look at signing his linemate, Elgton Jenkins, at RT.

As for DE, I think I'd throw numbers at it. If they come reasonably, maybe sign two of a few guys like Dawuane Smoot, Charles Omenihu, and Rasheem Green. I'd look for a speed rusher in the middle of the draft.

At WR, I'm not much on either of JJSS or MVS. If I had to pick my poison, I'd cut ties with MVS and re-sign JJSS. That said, there's a handful of guys I like in FA that I feel better about. Noah Brown, Darius Slayton, Nelson Agholor, and Jakobi Meyers would be at the top of my list. Honestly, cutting MVS and letting JJSS walk then signing a couple of these dudes would be what I'd do and if I honed in it would be Agholor and Slayton.

Poona Ford and nobody else

You cant really take into account Kirks season this year, because he's already been paid. So if you take there by game average and extrapolate that over a 17 game seasons this is how they'd compare.

JJSS - 87 receptions, 1056 yds, 7 TDs
Kirk - 59 receptions, 881 yds, 5 TDs

DK got $24 mil yr and this is what his per game avg extrapolates to a full 17 game season, before he got paid.

75 receptions, 1100 yds, 10 TDs

Deebo Samuel has had literally 1 great season and is making just under $24 mil/yr.

DK plays outside while JJSS and Kirk play inside. I do not think DK is a better comp.

Will you be paying him the $4.4M he makes in 2022 next year? No, so that's $4.4M more you have to spend. I agree, he'll probably get more than that next year from somebody, just not the Chiefs.

Meyers is the guy I'd lose a JJSS or MVS for. I mean, if JJSS plays like he did against SF for the rest of the season maybe not, but I could see him being available for less than crazy money and he's definitely a different type of WR that looks like he could be effective anywhere. Not crazy big or fast but always seems open. I don't know how he meshes with other WRs here so I guess that's my only question, but I think over the past 3 years he's been a better WR than JJSS or MVS.

JJSS is our new and much improved Sammy Watkins, I hope he stays.

Conklin at rt next year wouldn’t be bad

I’m going to need you guys to get this thread back in gear. Yesterday every time I would finish a page the. Look up there would be a new deer entering my food plot. Come guys, I need a little tree stand reading again today!