30% success rate on downfield passes. 2 drops on throws past 10 yards, same as MVS. Far fewer yards per route run. Worse success rate. He's undeniably a less effective downfield receiver than MVS.

Y'all just keep remembering the one time someone did something like that and "Hey, Courtland Sutton can do it!!"

So can MVS. He has. He doesn't do it with regularity because it simply doesn't get DONE with regularity. Sutton ain't doing it. Williams isn't. FFS, Demarcus Robinson sure as SHIT wasn't doing it.

What you're asking is for MVS to be a downfield threat AND JJSS. That ain't who he is. We specifically went out there and got 'niche' weapons instead of trying to find more jack of all trade players.

MVS, for what he does and what he's been ASKED to do, has been damn good at it here. But because he's not out there Mossing dudes on 40 yard throws downfield with regularity, you want to act like he's quitting on plays. He's not.

The Chiefs obviously don't want one of those guys. So maybe you should move on?

I don't disagree with any of this.

I'm taking exception only to this idea that he's not getting those balls because he's not trying. And that he 'just needs to go get those balls' as though there's just some switch to flip.

There isn't.

Oh, and then there's the idea that we'd be better off with Dropmarcus or Skrownwhatever because 'he catches balls above his head' or whatever other such nonsense is being spewed.

The hyperbole surrounding MVS is just ridiculous.

I don’t know about holding back. However, not everyone has been healthy. Hardman adds an extra element to this team’s offense. We haven’t scored 40 since he was on IR. With him and Tony on this team, I think we will see an offense firing on all cylinders.

Also, there was a very strong sense that Andy and company were keeping a lot of things under wraps over the past several weeks. None of the teams we faced after Cincy needed a particularly genius game plan so it seems that, ‘Arctic Circle’ aside, the play calling was largely vanilla and predictable.

What is far more interesting is that this seems to be the best defense of the Mahomes’ era. Since the bye, our defense has been ranked 12 in DVOA. Mahomes doesn’t need a top 10 defense like Brady got. He just needs someone that is competent. Our D just held LV to 13 points and yeah, it’s Stidham. But they put 34 points on the #1 defense the week before. Plus, it’s the NFL. You aren’t playing on an NFL team unless you’re really good at football.

This team goes through the playoffs with the same precision and execution that we saw Saturday and we will win the SB.

I think they probably do, actually.

They just couldn't get it this year.

I think this season they allocated scarce resources to particular niche skills in an attempt to re-build the position on the cheap.

Then they flat missed with the Moore pick.

But I think they'll keep shooting their shot and they WILL try to find a larger, more toolsy Z wide receiver.

Because they aren't using JJSS at ALL like Reid has ever used an X receiver. And I don't believe they drafted Moore expecting him to ever be like that. They just took what was in front of them.

Again, i'm high on MVS. I like MVS. I think he's the most capable WR on the roster outside of Toney.

I'm not asking MVS to be anything more than he is. Im also not in denial about what he isn't.

His hands are somewhat shaky, a reputation he's had long before KC, and has shown itself at times in KC, and he's not a particularly physical player.

No, i don't think he's "Quitting" on plays, and have never said that.

He he has some holes in his game. And that's fine. He's a nice #2. But he's not going to out jump someone. He's not gonna out position a guy, whether that be due to body control or strength. He's not gonna wrestle a 50/50 ball away from a DB. That's the part of his game that's missing.

And that's ok! Because we should be able to get a guy opposite of him that CAN.

Yeah - we're cool.

We (I?) were speaking past each other. My bad.

I've never said that MVS quits on plays. But he doesn't try to make plays using his physical gifts, in particular his size and length nearly often enough. It has happened, which is great, but it's pretty inconsistent in his case, and that's frustrating when there are WRs out there with the same basic gifts doing more with them on a regular basis.

End of rant.

He's also throwing to a new crew, sans Hardman.

Considering they keep drafting and signing lesser versions ever since Sammy Watkins, yeah i'd say your statement is complete bullshit.

Again.....a JuJu that can run. AKA Sammy Watkins.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Chiefs worked out free agent WR John Ross. <br><br>He was the 9th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft to the Bengals and ran the fastest 40 ever at the Combine (4.22).</p>&mdash; Field Yates (@FieldYates) <a href="https://twitter.com/FieldYates/status/1612576266091221002?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 9, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Wow. Guys I don’t think Hardman is coming back…

Maybe not but again - do you really think they're gonna sign a street free agent and have him in there?

They've gone without Hardman for about 2 months now and haven't had a fully healthy version of him all season. If he's not coming back, they'll just write him off and run the offense as they've run it for half the season.

I don't think John Ross (who's played like 5 games in the last 3 years) is someone they're bringing in to replace Mecole. I just don't see these as related conversations.

You guys are nuts. Hardman is playing in the playoffs. You'd rather Andy went all Staley and had him out there against the Raiders? Nah, the team has always been on the cautious side on returning players. You think Andy thought they had to have Mecole to best the Raiders? No, he's doing what he's always done, watching out for his players. I expect Mecole to play and make his presence known.

Oh yeah I agree. It seems like we let it rip for big games like that, but sandbag in games Andy thinks we can get away with it. I expect to see the offense take it up another tick in the playoffs. Especially if Hardman is healthy.

They actively traded away the opportunity to take said guy though in Pickens (sorry Detox).

I dunno. I think they'd like to have said guy, but I dunno that they really wanna expand the resources to have that single guy, when they can cobble together a couple into that.

I have a feeling he's really been sandbagging some of the running game with Pacheco.
I think he's fast enough to turn the corner on some off tackle and other runs we haven't seen for a while.

Imagine if we had Willie Roaf at LT. Keep interior line and have big John Tait at RT.

they pitched him the ball ONCE this season to my memory, and it wasn't a toss play

i want to see a toss with thuney out there in front

Yeah - but like I said in the Moore thread, I think they just missed.

They saw Pickens/Pierce/Moore as similarly talented prospects. Or they just didn't want to deal with Pickens potential attitude concerns.

I don't think that's a statement as to the type of player they were really looking for. I think they just got it wrong. But hell, maybe Moore steps into the Z role next year and makes me look like a dick.

But I don't think they're actively opposed to large, fast, talented WRs.

Toney baloney.

The only thing that matters is that you have the best QB in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes.

https://i.ibb.co/PGXMwjd/474-F5-D8-E...4-FA005-A2.jpg

I think Toney has made Hardman expendable. I would like us to draft another speed receiver though.

I do think these moves signal the end of Hardman’s time here. Ross is just an initial lottery ticket

Using Toney the way they've used Hardman is a massive waste, IMO.

Use Toney as a true Z. He has the tools for it. Use MVS as an X in a DeSean Jackson mold.

Skyy/Hardman rotate at the Y depending on what you're looking for. And ultimately you draft another WR, ideally one with more size, to potentially step in for MVS in 2024.

I think you COULD use Toney like they've used Hardman, but I think you're better served, if the price is right, retaining Hardman and walking from JJSS.

Yup exactly. It's something him and the o-line should be able to execute at a high level too.

All I know is if Hardman & Toney is both healthy, along with Moore & MVS, there is no reason not to have 1 of them going deep on every play. You can even sprinkle in a few double post/ fly patterns now and then as decoys of some screens and underneath routes to keep the defense stretched & worn out.

I do too. I'd actually prefer to keep Hardman for a little cheaper. That speed is a bitch to deal with and he was playing really well before he got hurt.

Interestingly enough, I looked at this same chart for the last 2 years and this red box seems to be the “Super Bowl” zone of the last couple years. Admittedly not perfect (I haphazardly drew the boxes on my phone) but interesting that the champs have come from this upper right quadrant.

2022 - this season

https://i.ibb.co/cCN05Mg/15-A0-B77-E...D5-A40-D32.jpg

2021 - Rams Super Bowl champion

https://i.ibb.co/wYYM221/C0971-BD3-D...CBF4-EBF69.jpg


2020 - Bucs Super Bowl champion

https://i.ibb.co/VjpL4MM/34-C155-F5-...FB8165-EB9.jpg

Except that you're kinda ignoring where the decimal point is on that axis for the 2021 Rams (i.e. WELL behind where the Chiefs offense is this year) and the last time a team approached the Chiefs offensive efficiency was the 2020 Chiefs, who were also dead average on Defense and made the Super Bowl out of the AFC. The 2021 axis is so much 'shorter' than either 2020 or 2020 that it's barely worth referencing.

The 2020 Chiefs and 2022 Chiefs, OTOH are EXTREMELY similar animals. And I'm pretty sure we kicked y'alls ass in 2020, no? I distinctly recall a pouty little QB firing a football at someone who just dumped him in the backfield....again.

I'll go ahead and take my chances here...

That's such an incredibly small sample size that you can't come really come to any conclusion from it.

When you scale the graph correctly you can conclude that the 2021 Rams were essentially the 2022 Jags.

Bills fans - good at dildos, bat at graphs.

agreed

Conclusion: the last time a league average defense was a standard deviation better than second place in the league on offense, it piss pounded the Bills in the playoff in its way to a conference championship.

Yeah - so you should go ahead and give that a try then.

Hint: that extra zero AFTER the decimal in 2021 is pretty important.

Again, that doesn’t really matter, because it’s relative for all teams.

You could make it 3,000,000 instead of .03 and as long as the same change is made relative for all teams the graph would still hold. The place on the map is really all that matters in that it shows good defense with good offense … good offense with bad defense …. bad defense with bad offense… etc.

Very possible but I think you’ll be surprised with how much Hardman gets. A team with a rookie contract like Steelers, Giants, Panthers or Texans could easily see that as a need and with an influx of cash give him $15 million avg.

That’s…a little rich for me. Juju might get the same but you have to measure out who is more important.

I get if you want to argue for a specific type of WR. I just don’t understand your defense of Mvs. The guy is fast and can break open. Below average hands. Below average at getting to the ball. And he’s had 2 hall of fame QBs routinely miss him. In ways he didn’t miss hardman or tyreek. I’m not gonna bag on the guys character. I just don’t think he’s very good.

It does matter because relative to the league the chiefs don't have a 'good' offense - they have a great one.

And last time that was the case, Josh had himself a little tantrum before he went home for the season.

Dude missed most of the year.

A 'prove it' deal seems most likely.

Still stand behind this….
We are moving very much in the right direction
Doing great during a supposed rebuild year
Our offense is good enough to carry us to a Super Bowl

No, I don’t believe this is close to the best offense we’ve assembled. This offense was one bad mahomes half away from an absurd playoff run last year. And the second half of this season looked great on paper but we’ve had plenty of struggles on offense. Two bad second halves vs Denver. Bad games vs Seattle and the rams. Great games on paper vs Tennessee and chargers, but they were big time battles.

We’re going to see some mammoth pass rushers in the playoffs. And some elite CBs. And we’re not gonna have the benefit of Bryce Perkins, Malik Willis or geno on the other side. And we’ve had harder slogs against tough physical defenses. I don’t think we’re close to there on any of those fronts.

Again, we’re in a great place but we can’t be close to content. We’ve still got some work to do.

LMAO

way overblown

buffalo has nobody scary rushing the passer and no elite CBs

they just got torn up at home by MAC JONES

the chargers or jags? bosa on one leg and ????????????????

cincy has trey hendrickson, but no elite corners, that's our biggest challenge

i'm not scared of any AFC defense...and if we get to the super bowl, i definitely won't be scared of anyone

Who the **** are those mammoth pass rushers lol

Stealing quotes from your girlfriend? :hmmm:

ROFL

If you're heading back to your super dense, repeat the same wrongness several times so people continue arguing with you - ways.... then we'll go back to our ban you from every thread except the overhyped thread ways.

The tiers have been explained several times, and you ignored it back then... and the graph is read top left/bottom right along the diagonals... the Chiefs are so far right of their diagonal, they're almost in a tier by themselves.

Offense is more predictable than defense, so it's skewed that way for a reason. The Chiefs are the best team on that graph because their offense in tenths of a point is far better than .05 in defense.

It's not an opinion, it's how the ****ing graph works. FFS, it's in bold red in the title of the thread. Tiers, not quadrants. If you of all people had found some magic square box, I'd think the people who created DVOA would notice and adjust as well.

Ok. I wasn’t trying to be dense, I guess my brain is just having a hard time grasping the chart.

don't worry diqlix, i have your championship banners ready...that's right, you get TWO! back to BACK, baby!

Kudos to you for admitting you don't know. 95% of the members here would take this moment to double down and keep saying the wrong thing.

Don't see many, but CIN's Hubbard and Hendrickson made our OTs look really bad a couple months ago. They made them look like JV practice squad tackles.

Bosa, of course, but he's injured and who knows if they'll even get past JAX. But a healthy Bosa isn't anything to sneer at with our OTs.

Yeah, like two months ago when he "disagreed" with the repeated explanations of how it works....

Every time I see that chart my brain wants to read it like a normal plot chart. I completely forgot that Bearcat educated me on it last time. Hopefully itll “stick” this time.

Evidently, Bills fans are much better at jumping on tables, hot-wiring cars and fingering each other's booty holes than reading charts.

Not mammoths, but the competition committee said the bills get to use actual 🦬 as DEs if they make the AFCCG.

chiefs ripping off 30 yard gains with juju, noah gray, justin watson and IHMIR SMITH MARSETTE on the field as their skill guys LMAO

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Under-center PA is something I&#39;ve been talking about all season. Ihmir Smith-Marsette is used as the reverse fake off the initial PA and Mahomes hits Juju. Watch both LBs bite HARD. MORE of this please <a href="https://t.co/M9SS6dVxDl">pic.twitter.com/M9SS6dVxDl</a></p>&mdash; Daniel Harms�� (@InHarmsWay19) <a href="https://twitter.com/InHarmsWay19/status/1612652131424641028?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 10, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I don't see Justin Watson mentioned in the OP?

If fully healthy, then Watson is getting 15-20% of the snaps like he should be getting. Didn't feel like I needed to mention a guy that will have minimum contributions.

LMAO LMAO

Don't know how I missed this the first time through. Really interesting stuff. Never thought about it from a stats/probability perspective. Makes a lot of sense though.

From what I remember of the show, those guys thought that Andy was throwing a big eye candy play at the defense, to mess with the teams KC will play in the playoffs.

Basically, "here, I've run a couple plays in the past from this formation (kind of), with a TE, a WR, and an RB in the backfield, with Mahomes as the tailback or whatever, before, but now I'm going to show you something you've never seen before, deal with that!" Because now those DCs in the playoffs are going to have to try and figure out how to counter not only that play, but whatever else Andy might dream up from that formation/position group.

And it worked to perfection, the phantom holding call notwithstanding. When you watch the NextGen Stats animation of the play, the defense is standing there flat-footed at the snap; the safeties and the LBs in particular have no idea what's coming. Even after the snap at least one of the safeties doesn't move for several seconds. And most of the defense just looks confused.

Anyway, the RGR guys tracked all the plays, and said that we saw more 'new' plays in that game than we had in a long time. They weren't as flashy as the snowglobe play, mostly they were plays from formations Andy uses a lot, but completely different motion, routes, or whatever. Apparently, there's permutations Andy's come up with that, as a fan watching on TV, we don't really see but that the players on defense do see, that constitute the eye candy. Kind of showing you his 'tell,' then doing something unexpected from it.

I'd love to see them run thay spinny huddle play on an important play, but spins the other way.

What about Fortson? Is he going play or is he done?

So, I made a mistake. A couple three, actually. Shocking, I know.:thumb:

I reread my posts concerning MVS and realized that I misunderstood DJ's posts about MVS and his role in the offense, which make my posts about MVS kind of nonsensical. That's on me to have better comprehension, so I'm retracting my posts about MVS here.

And it's completely out of character for me. I've always been the protector of lost toys; I'm a homer. Maybe the homer, depending on who you ask around here. Bagging on a player that wears the red and gold in not who I am. Don't know really how I got here. I mean, hell, I defended Ben Neimann a couple years ago, for like 5 straight weeks. My handle on other sites is "DD49," for petesakes.

Anyway, my bad for the unwarranted snark and the bad takes. Going back to my normal role of defending lost causes on my favorite football team, the Chiefs.

End of public announcement.

If Im Hardman I dont even know if I play. He's gonna get paid by somebody and he has a good excuse as to why he isn't playing. Just say the spirit isn't with him. As a Chiefs fan I hate it, but good business decision.