I don't want to bring him back. Just saying last year was his only injury and it wasn't even all that major. But yes, he's in the decline now.

@FlannyMLB: GMDM told us #Royals payroll won't go significantly above $113M. With arb cases, they'll be over $107M. And they need another SP.

@DBLesky: "Payroll will remain about the same."

-GMDM every year

#Royals payroll has jumped by at least $10 million every year for the last four.

This may be a smokescreen, as Andy said the payroll would likely hit 130m. Both Glass and Moore preached that they had to "break even" the past two offseasons. They ended up significantly raising payroll by the end of those offseasons.

Trade for Cargo and re- sign Gordo and Royals fans will be happy o.

Yeah you're likely right

@FlannyMLB: #Royals also have interest in long-term deals for Cain, Moose or Hoz, so money has to be allocated for that.

Absolutely zero chance of a long term deal for Hoz. So we know this is bullshit.

Imagine what Cain would get on the open market right now.

Charlie Blackmon would be awesome

Moore has said for the last three years that the organization is committed to making Hos and life long Royal.. No matter the price.

We'll see, I suppose.

Blackmon has horrific home/road splits.

If he grew up a Royals fan, I doubt he can do this... he hates the Cardinals, I bet.

He sincerely wants to remain a Royal. I hope that we can pay him.

Except it's not. They've been on record that they fully intend to aggressively extend him. They were also upfront and frank about the likelihood of resigning Shields and other guys, so why would they smokescreen about this?

They're not dumb about the $$$ and years keeping Hoz would take, and it provides them zero benefit to come out and take that position unless they are letting Eric and Boras know they're serious about getting a new contract done.

Dayton hasn't been one to mince words or blow sunshine up the public's ass about pipedream scenarios.

Clearly, there's no guarantee, but it won't be a situation where the organization has washed their hands, giving up, and just moving on.

Can they do a cost/ benefit analysis of what having butts in the seats in September means in terms of revenue?

If so, can we guess how many wins having Gordon everday in LF compares to Dyson?

Done.

If the Cards got Gordon at 5/$80 million, they could take the other $100 million they saved on Heyward and aggressively pursue Wei Yin Chen.

The Cards are better with Gordon and Chen than they are with just Heyward.

And Duncan, I have to presume that he'd have $80 million reasons to switch to RF. He won't do it for free, but if it comes as a condition of accepting that deal, I suspect he'd be open to it.

AL fans: I've done some digging on Chen; looked at arsenal and what not, watched some clips on Youtube - why is there not more buzz around the guy?

He's a legitimate 4 pitch pitcher with 2 fastballs (making him a 5 pitch pitcher). His average fastball velocity is over 91 but it's because he's a tinkerer in the Greinke mold; he adds and subtracts from his fastball a lot. I watched an AB where he had 94/95 with ease to blow away Nelson Cruz. He's a lefty so even if his velocity declines a bit, his stuff will play up as he ages.

He pitched to a mid 3's ERA in an hellish homer environment (not to mention with so many road games in Boston, Toronto and NYY). He has a superlative walk rate and his HR rate away from Camden is top shelf.

Why is this guy so far under the radar? Is there something you guys see about him that I'm missing? This guy appears to be a no-shit #2 starter with the potential to be among the top 10 LHSP in the league (non-Kershaw division). What am I missing? Why don't people seem to think he's as good as I do?

I think the hate wouldn't be directed at Gordon but the royals for being cheap. Most royals fans remember our continued low payroll and don't blame the players but the organization.

If Gordon signed for 5/75 to 80 and it wasn't here, I know I'd be livid. That is a completely reasonable deal for him.

Best fans in Baseball giving us all a teaching moment.

He wouldn't move to RF when he was about to bust out of baseball. Unless his deal to play RF completely crushes all other offers, it would be something I'd expect to be a real factor.

San Francisco is going to be very competitive for him, to play HIS position. Will the Cardinals go way over the top of that to play him out of position?

Gordon's defensive excellence is more about his reads and instincts than anything else. Moving him to the other side of the diamond is risky,IMO, if you're expecting prime defensive value from him.

And at 5/80, KC can be right there/very competitive.

He's very good, no question. I'd give even odds he'll produce close to Cueto next 5 years.

Didn't Gordon grow up an Orioles fan?

Yea I think they Royals could handle that and it wouldn't be a huge gamble. If someone offers him 6 years, that would be crazy and I bet he'd take it.

@JonHeymanCBS: Royals, orioles among many teams in on Scott kazmir

I'm not so sure that contract is "doable" for the Royals in their present situation.

They're not going to want to guarantee that 5th year on a player that will be then 37. So a 5 for $90 mil. contract would look something like;

Year 1: 18 mil.
Year 2: 20 mil.
Year 3: 22 mil.
Year 4: 25 mil.
Year 5: 28 mil. (Team option - $5 mil. buyout)

IF the Royals are interested in re-signing Gordon and his price tag is around 90 mil. that is the type of contract they would have to consider.

I love Gordon, but it doesn't make sense to give that contract to a player that is 32 years old. 27 or 28, maybe.

If his price tag goes that high, the Royals would be smart to let him walk and focus on LoCain and/or Moose. Maybe give Salvy a little more $$$ for some extra years trade off. Hoz is a pipedream. He is Taylor made for Yankees stadium and I'm sure the Yankees would throw 28-30 mil. Per year at him once he hits FA at the young age of 28. And if not them, someone else will.

Gordon is a franchise icon and will always be a 'Royal' at heart, but it's time to tip our cap, thank him for his years of service and move on. Unless his price tag becomes lower than expected ( say $75 mil. over 5).


You can't cripple the future of the franchise over sentimentality.

Math

You don't count the total salary in the 5th year if it is an option year, you count the buyout amount.

Thus, the guaranteed amount of the contract would be 5 years for 90 mil. And that is the type of contract the Royals would have to do if his price tag goes that high. Which, again, makes no sense for them long term.

WTF are you talking about? That would be 4 years $90,000,000

Well, you can either call it for 4 for 85 or 5 for 90. The option amount is for the 5th year, so you would be paying the 90 million over a 5 year period. Again, this is assuming Gordon were to land a contract for a guaranteed 90 million.

I mean, yes the Royals could also do:

Year 1 - 14 mil.
Year 2 - 16 mil.
Year 3 - 18 mil.
Year 4 - 20 mil.
Year 5 - 22 mil.

But under that scenario, you're guaranteeing that you're paying Alex 22 million in his 5th year, when he is 37 years old. IF the Royals really want Gordo back, I don't see GMDM guaranteeing anything beyond 4 years. It's just not the way he typically does business.

I still don't think it will matter because some team will overpay and offer him stupid money (over $100 mil.) for his age. Thus is the way of baseball and contracts nowadays.

Let's all agree that any hypothetical involving Dayton will include the vaunted "mutual option".

Think about what you're saying. You said that the Royals don't want to pay for that fifth year, so you suggest paying the same amount of money for only 4 years.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-bi...005152575.html

Do you remember his strange "demotion" last June? He was pitching great and they cited "general soreness". That was after he went 8 1/3 in a victory and struck out 9.

I'm saying IF Alex gets a guaranteed 90 mil. (which he probably will) and the Royals really want him back, they can either have him on the books for 4 or 5 years. And, IMO, GM DM will not want him on the books for a 5th year at his age 37 season.

He's getting the money either way in the above scenario. You're just either paying it over 4 or 5 years.

It's more likely the thing is structured 5/85 with a 5 million buyout on a mutual sixth year than what you're suggesting.

That makes him a very a affordable 17 AAV and spreads it out in a manageable manner.

What you're suggesting doesn't make sense.

I don't think the Royals are willing to guarantee 5 years to Alex. IMO, he will get 90 million in guaranteed money.

Ultimately, that was what I was trying to say. I don't think they want to commit beyond 4 years. Again, just my opinion.

I get not wanting to commit beyond 4 years. But they're not going to give him the money he'd get over 5 years from someone else over 4 years, either.

At that point, you might as well have the fifth year of the contract. If you're on the hook for $90 million anyway, and can spread it over five, you might as well.

The $90 million is a sunk cost either way. Even if you don't get much value at all out of year 5, it's still an extra year of value.

To put it in WAR terms:

Year 1 - 4.5 WAR
Year 2 - 4 WAR
Year 3 - 3 WAR
Year 4 1.5 WAR
Year 5 - 1 WAR

And in years 4 and 5, you have a new TV deal to help defray the cost.

What you are suggesting would be like looking at a car you want to lease and deciding that you don't want to lock yourself into a 6 year lease at $500 a month, so you lease the same car for 5 years at $600 a month.

He was demoted by Showalter so they could throw a generic RH starter against the Jays' RH bats instead of a lefty. It didn't work out, though. That wasn't the first or last time Showalter set up the rotation last year to avoid that possibility, but he took it to a new level with that demotion.

From a December 9th Kansas City Star story, http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb...e48900090.html, on Dayton Moore and the Winter Meetings –

Eibner, Fuentes, and Martinez have all had good stats in 2015.
For any of you that follow the Royals minor leagues or having watched the Omaha Storm Chasers, what can we expect from these three outfielders? Jose Martinez at 6’7” and a .384 AAA average seems impressive. What is his defense like? Brett Eibner, stat wise, handles LHP and RHP equally well. What’s his speed and defense like? I also like Reymond Fuentes being a LHB and his .308 average looks good. Fuentes looks like he might have some speed too, with 29 stolen bases.

Any information on these guys from someone that has actually seen them play would be appreciated.

Don't know anything about them but I'm reminded of the time we put out our B lineup after we clinched and Carrasco threw a 15k one hitter on us. The drop off to AAAA or borderline MLB guys is like a cliff

I've heard Eibner described as a Paulo Orlando with less speed & more power. He has struck out a lot & is 26 already. I've wanted the Royals to bring him up just to see how good he really is.

That’s an interesting thought. I looked it up and that night we had -

1. Jarrod Dyson CF 0 for 4 .245 average at that time
2. Ben Zobrist 2B 0 for 4 .282 “
3. Alex Rios RF 1 for 3 .270
4. Paulo Orlando LF 0 for 3 .247
5. Jonny Gomes DH 0 for 3 .213
6. Cheslor Cuthbert 3B 0 for 3 .233
7. Christian Colon SS 0 for 2 .293
8. Drew Butera 1B 0 for 2 .206
9. Francisco Pena C 0 for 3 .000

That was a brutal batting order going against a good pitcher in Carlos Carrasco. Gomes average against RHP was .203.

For 2016 we could have a lineup of –
1. Alcides Escobar SS
2. Mike Moustakas 3B
3. Lorenzo Cain CF
4. Eric Hosmer 1B
5. Kendrys Morales DH
6. Left handed bat TBD OF
7. Salvador Perez C
8. Jarrod Dyson, Reymond Fuentes, Paulo Orlando, Brett Eibner, or Jose Martinez OF – best player wins the position with next best player backing up.
9. Omar Infante, Christian Colon, or Raul Mondesi 2B

That’s not too bad. The lineup can really improve depending on the LHB that we get.

Found this on Jose Martinez:

At 27 years of age heading into the 2016 season, Martinez is just about to enter his hypothetical prime. Even if he is not much of a power threat, with fifty home runs and 134 doubles in his career, he has displayed an excellent ability to make contact. His overall 16.6% strikeout rate over his minor league career, including a 15.4% rate last season, would certainly make Martinez a solid fit on the Kansas City Royals.

Primarily a right fielder in his nine year minor league career, Martinez split his time between left and right last season for Omaha. Even if he is not likely to crack the starting lineup as a regular, Martinez could potentially fill in that backup role that Orlando had last season. Given the uncertainty around the Royals outfield at present, Martinez could potentially become an important piece in Kansas City.

Found this on Fuentes:

Fuentes' main tool is his speed which translates to both sides of the ball. He's a plus runner with good base stealing instincts and excellent range and defense in left field or center field. He doesn't show anything in the power department, probably maxing out at 5-10 homers per year at his peak. Scouts are down on his hit tool, despite posting at least a .315 average his last two trips through the Texas League spanning nearly 600 plate appearances. A red flag there is a .381 BABIP in 2013 and .392 BABIP in 2014 at the AA level. He's a career .302 hitter in 245 AAA plate appearances though with a .310 BABIP in 2014. His arm isn't quite noodle status but it's also not a strong point in his profile, grading out anywhere from fringy to a tick below average. Overall, I believe he could handle holding down either left or center field in a starting role for a team out of contention. Going to the Royals though, Fuentes looks like a 4th outfielder and another speed option on the bench. With limited time spent in AAA, he's most likely to head to Omaha to kick off the 2015 season.

Fuentes is not a power hitter. He has never hit more than 6 home runs in a season, and his best isolated slugging percentage was just .122 this season. However, he does have some other offensive skills that appealed to the Royals. Fuentes stole 25 bases in 28 attempts in 2014, and for his career, he’s stolen 187 bases at an 80% success rate.

That speed is made even more valuable by Fuentes’ plate discipline. In the last two seasons he’s posted a cumulative walk rate of 10%, while striking out in just over 17% of his plate appearances. This means that Fuentes seems to have solid contact skills, and he can get on-base at a very respectable clip. He also tends to post above average BABIPs, likely a testament to his speed. Add all of that together, and you can see part of why the Royals would be interested.

@JonHeymanCBS: royals' big hope is to keep alex gordon. but early indication is he isn't planning big hometown discount, like last time.

I’ve seen some video of them. Maybe 7 of the 19 HRs that Eibner had this year are on the Storm Chasers web site. He seems to have a nice swing. Also there is a video of Eibner playing CF and running down a fly ball and catching it over his shoulder. There are also a few videos of Martinez and Fuentes hitting. I’d really like to see some video of them playing the outfield.

I looked for video of the 2015 Omaha Storm Chasers games and could not find any.

That's a horrendous lineup. Escobar, Infante, Dyson, and the extra outfield spot ar gaping holes. Moose and Perez are mediocre and have a tendency to go into prolonged slumps. Hosmer, Cain, and Morales aren't enough to carry a lineup, especially in the AL on a team without dominant SP.

What hometown discount last time?

Gordo's numbers weren't wetting anyone's panties where he was getting a bunch of teams pursuing him. He outplayed his contract, but when he signed it, he was certainly not "giving" the Royals the hometown discount.

Heyman is either talking out of his ass because he is simply presuming based upon Alex's contract, or he's spinning some major revisionist history!

There was no "discount", it was a fair deal for both sides. Which, you know, is why they both signed it. We have to put up with all sorts of stupid phrases in baseball and "hometown discount" is one. It rarely if ever happens.

The MLBN guys were talking the other day on why starters get paid and how you need them in October. Yeah, our 4.98 ERA by starters was just crucial.

25 man roster as of today

Starters
Miguel Almonte
Danny Duffy (LHP)
Kris Medlen
Yordano Ventura
Edinson Volquez

Relievers
Louis Coleman
Chirs Young
Wade Davis
Brian Flynn (LHP)
Kelvin Herrera
Luke Hochevar
Joakim Soria

Catchers
Drew Butera
Salvy

Infielders
Christian Colon
Alcides Escobar
Eric Hosmer
Mike Moustakas
Raul Mondesi

Outfielders
Lorenzo Cain
Jarrod Dyson
Paulo Orlando
Brett Eibner
Jose Martinez

DH
Kendrys Morales

DFA Infante... the guy is a black hole. He plays 1 position, doesn't hit, can't run, old.. provides zero except Money sink and takes a valuable roster spot. See if he'll go to AAA, if not, bye-bye.

That's not a lot to get excited about, with two big question marks at corner outfield. Infield is slightly better than last year. Not quite as strong in the bullpen with the loss of Holland and Madsen, but Soria very well could fill a hole. Tim Collins will start out in AAA as he works back from TJ. Not a lot of consistent success in the Rotation outside of Volquez... But the ability is there.

Without adding a lot of payroll, kick tires on Corner OF's for a package around Herrera. Try to sign Parra.

I might even see what you could possibly get for Moustakas while his value may be high.... You have Cuthbert who could step in with basically similar production.

Not anywhere close to correct. Moose's defense is infintely better and his bat is as well. Cuthbert didn't look lost when he was up, but they aren't even in the same ballpark in a comparison.

Your 25 man doesn't look super pretty right now, but we still have a move or two to make at minimum. And nothing will happen until the Gordon situation resolves.

You overvalue moose like I'm hoping the rest of MLB GM's would.

Yet, I have a feeling we're not going to see Moose or Cain (two players who have seen similar turnarounds) sign one of these "fair" deals (plz prove me wrong GMDM).

I don't think that's the final lineup/everyday lineup, but the 2-6 (Moustakas/Cain/Hosmer/Morales/Perez) is not bad at all.

The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of Denard Span in LF if Gordon is not resigned. Good defense + good OBp skills are the priority there for me (which is why I like the Korean OF Kim as well, or Dexter Fowler, even). The. That LF hits 2, and Moustaksas can return to the 6 spot and bump perez down.

They don't need an amazing offense. Just league average-ish.

Add A Kazmir or Chen + a LF option who can hit second, and I consider it a good offseason.

Cliff Lee!

I think we'll add another starter from Kazmir, Kennedy or the like... then an outfielder of some sort via trade... Blackmon or Cargo.

Have you given up on Leake?

I think Medlen ia our Cliff Lee. Not KC can take 2 similar gambles.

Yeah. He seems to want to stay on the West Coast/Arizona. Have been no connections with him and KC.

We were incredibly lucky that we went through the playoffs with a lineup that was dangerous 1-9. I think next year fans are going to struggle with the fact we'll have holes in our lineup like most normal teams do. Even Joe Buck said we were the most relentless lineup since the 98 Yankees, and that is one of the greatest teams in the history of baseball. 95 Indians were probably like that too, everybody could hit. It's just tough to build something that consistent.

Umm Royals may want to just see what they could get for Herrera oe Davis....wow!

@Ken_Rosenthal: #Phillies’ trade of Giles bigger than initially reported. 5-for-2, Velasquez and Appel got to PHI with Eshelman, Arauz and Oberholtzer.

Yeah it's just frustrating - if our TV contract happened to come up last year we could sign Gordon and Zobrist no problem and be WS favorites for the next 2 years. Or if we were a big market team we could keep most of this core together, and who knows what they could do.

Lets hope these low ball years pay off and the tv contract signed becomes even more ridiculous than if it were inked today. Usually I'd just assume the bubble would burst #becauseroyal - but im thinking we can retire that phrase after the last 2 magical years.

I think the Royals are going to suck in 2018 and 2019. Which will hurt the TV deal.

We absolutely should.

I mean, what other reason to acquire Soria if not to prepare for a Davis/Herrera-less bullpen?

7th- Herrera
8th- Soria
9th- Davis

Davis and Herrera have logged a ton of heavy miles on their arms because they've pitched into the WS two years in a row. That's probably the biggest reason. I expect Ned will take it easy on them early next year. I'm afraid we'd never get enough value back for Davis. He's put up unprecedented numbers.

*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***
 

Four years of Kelvin Herrera should fetch a fairly similar return as what the Astros just gave up for five years of Giles.

Have to see what's out there for Herrera, IMO, if that's the Going rate.

Herrera could be dealt but Davis should be untouchable

Yep. A team that is a contender doesnt trade its closer unless you have a guy like Wade Davis pitching the 8th to promote.

Yeah, the return on Davis might not be that overwhelming, either.

The Giles return is pretty tremendous for the Phillies because the Astros get Giles for 5 years. Same type of thing comes into play with Herrera (who has three years of service time remaining - edit: was reading his clock time wrong).

It would be tough to lose Herrera, but the prospect of adding two Yordano Ventura-level players (What the Astros got in Velasquez and Appel, plus a few more pieces) is tougher to pass up, IMO.

Maybe you COULD get a Joc Pederson and Jose De Leon-type return from the Dodgers for Herrera. That would be fairly similar, if slightly lesser, than what the Phillies got for Giles.

Puig?

Probably in straight-up swap territory at that point. It might work. Not sure Moore would have interest in Puig, at all.

He places such a premium on leadership types...

**** puig.

Greinke punked him

Herrera to the Dodgers makes quite a bit of sense

I've got no problem with guys taking the $, everyone of us has done it. They get peanuts as minor leaguers and they're cut/traded/benched constantly. Look at Christian Colon or Dyson - they should be (or could be) starters and getting service time + proving themselves but management blocks them. Etc

If Gordon or whoever leaves, great. They only earned their big $ by playing well for us.

Me neither. My point is that it's pretty rare to see players of Gordon's talent giving their prime years to the hometown team.

Sure, it worked out for both sides, but there's a reason national writers have coined it as a hometown discount (it's probably the best example of such a signing over the last five years).