Here are some first round draft numbers:

Over the past 20 years, 45 QBs have been drafted in the first round. 29 of them (64%) had a better better win percentage during their time with the team that drafted them than that team had during the 3 years prior to their draft. That is to say, 64% of them improved their teams. That does not include Eli or Rivers, neither of whom played at all for the team that drafted them.

Here are the percentage of first rounders by position that improved their teams:

QB: 64% (Improved their team by an average of 0.58 wins/season)
RB: 57% (0.48)
DT: 55% (0.12)
WR: 54% (0.27)
S: 54% (0.42)
DE: 51% (-0.08)
OT: 51% (0.14)
LB 51% (0.54)
OG 45% (-0.05)
TE 45% (-0.07)
CB 45% (-0.31)
OC 27% (-0.77)
K 0% (-0.36)

So. Draft a QB.

Then I accomplished somewhat what I hoped to with that.

It's pretty much impossible to look at something like that with no hindsight glasses on, because we know the end game. We can take the scouting report they had as a prospect, hold it up to what they are now, and see what matches up.

IMO, you can't effectively analyze and/or compare prospects accross time, because you can't take that element out of it. Which is why the whole Luck/RGIII stuff is somewhat overblown, just as the "he's no DT etc."

He didn't say "Better Prospects". He said "Better QB's".

HUGE difference.

Tom Brady won put a team on his shoulders and won a Super Bowl in Year Two. Kaepernick led his team to a Super Bowl in Year Two. Collins led the Panthers to the NFC Championship in Year Two. Etc. and so on.

Just because scouts missed on guys doesn't mean that the players weren't ready to lead a team.

I don't know about that, but like I said, it's really impossible to do.


We know for a fact what those others DID as a pro. We have no idea what Smith will become.

It's just not a real good road to head down, IMO.

Over-drafting a QB in the first round doesn't make him worthy of being a first round QB.

You're right Dane, we should probably just shut the board down for maintenance until after the draft.

Forgive me for listing the quarterbacks that have been to the recent superbowls and asking "what skills do these guys have that Geno doesn't and which were better PROSPECTS coming out of college.

Actually, from what I've read and seen at this point, I think Smith and Barkley are both first round prospects. Where in the first round is what the next month or two will determine.

What's ****ing RIDICULOUS is that you're asking a question that CANNOT BE ANSWERED.

YOU have no idea how Eugene Smith will play in the NFL. None. Not ONE iota. Because you WANT him to be drafted by the Chiefs and WANT him to play well, you're PROJECTING when in reality, you have absolutely no idea where he'll land or how he will perform.

If you're going to ask that question of Smith, why not ask it of Nassib, Wilson, Glennon, Dysert and Manuel? And even if you did, it would be an empty response made up of pure CONJECTURE, not fact.

Reading ten million mock drafts provides absolutely no clarity and it's just ridiculous to believe that anyone has any idea of where these players will land, especially before the Combines and personal visits begin.

It's conjecture: Guys sit around and try to match players with needs. That's it. And they all read each other's mock drafts and influence each because they want to be seen as "right" at the end of the day.

It's a pointless exercise, especially this early in the process.

I didn't say that at all.

You're being obtuse and not paying attention.

I CLEARLY asked for everyone to look at the players that made it to the superbowl and then trying to look back at them WHEN THEY WERE COMING OUT OF COLLEGE and seeing how Geno stacks up to them at that point.

If you don't think that can be looked at objectively, I guess I can't help you because all YOU ever saw were 2 ****ing games that Geno Smith has EVER played. His worst two games of his career, to boot.

If someone else would have done that at any point in the last few years, you would clown them.

Some of us have watched nearly every game of his from the last two years.

Wasn't really talking about that, more what kiper and mayock are saying

No where does your post say "Prospects".

You asked who was better coming out of college. First off, that can't be answered because Smith hasn't played in the NFL yet but I think it's safe to say that many of those players, especially Brady, were missed by scouts.

Chill out Dane, that's what he meant.

As a prospect, Geno is superior to guys who are 6 feet tall, and superior to almost every guy who only had one year of decent production...like Tannehill.

I'll be completely honest: I don't give a ****. I don't give a **** how many games you've watched or GoChiefs or Milkman. It doesn't matter.

What matter is the GM of the Kansas City Chiefs said that there is NO QB in this draft worthy of a first round grade. Period. End of story.

That's the SAME EXACT THING that's been said by reporters and scouts during the 2012 college season and the 2013 offseason.

Now, due to need, a QB or two might be chosen in the first round but that doesn't mean that they're true first round talent. Some teams will just "roll the dice".

All this blather and bluster about "I've watched "film" is ridiculous nonsense, especially BEFORE THE COMBINES.

And JFC, the guy didn't show up at the Senior Bowl and those that did, sucked ass. So all this "Oh, the draft class is no weaker than in year's past" is absolute garbage.

Especially considering not one of these guys has played a down in the NFL.