cdcox |
01-03-2014 01:24 AM |
I missed the regular season match up due to travel, but just caught the NFL replay version. My concerns:
1. Brandon Albert has to neutralize Mathis. Mathis is having a monster year, so his performance against the Chiefs wasn't some kind of one day fluke. Alex doesn't do well in a dirty pocket.
2. Luck is Manning-like in his ability to neutralize a pass rush. We got good pressure a few times, but Luck handled it. When we did sack him, he didn't lose his cool. Good feet, quick release, sees the field, plus he is tougher to bring down than Manning. We aren't going to see a Luck melt down. Which leaves...
3. Our exposed secondary. There are structural weaknesses here that aren't going to change without different personnel. Luck is going to exploit them. He'll get his 250+ yards.
4. The Colts offense is designed to limit turnovers (13 on the season). We aren't likely to have a significant advantage in turnovers.
5. If it comes down to the last possession of each team, I'll take the better QB. He will also have the refs on his side. Big advantage Colts.
So how do we win?
We have to contain their running game. If we don't, gameover. We must neutralize Mathis. If we don't, gameover. If we achieve both of these, I still expect Luck to win the battle against our defense. We need an advantage to over come Luck. Obviously Jamaal Charles will have to have a big game. Smith will have to manage the heck out of the game.
We aren't their yet. We still need a small miracle. We need our last drive to be better than their last drive. Or we need a late and decisive turnover. Or a couple of scores on defense and/or special teams. Or one of those games where every thing goes our way (when is the last time that happened against a quality opponent on the road?).
We can win, but I don't feel good about it. 2-5 down the stretch makes the odds even longer.
|