| OnTheWarpath15 |
07-22-2010 05:48 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by frazod
(Post 6893508)
Just heard on the radio (Chicago news station) that the Cards are frontrunners to get Oswalt from Houston.
Boy, I don't know about this, I'd hate to trade prospects to a division rival for a guy on the downhill slide. Not to mention one that I absolutely ****ing hate.
Hope this rumor stays a rumor.
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I almost mentioned this earlier.
Apparently, Oswalt had told people that STL is his first choice - and he has a no-trade clause - so people are reporting we're the frontrunners.
An unnamed executive in the organization said something to the effect of acquiring an "unnamed premium player is a longshot."
Bernie Miklasz wrote a pretty good "Pros and Cons to Oswalt piece today:
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseb...7a4a78c22.html
Quote:
About Roy Oswalt and the Cardinals: If he is desperate to get to St. Louis and wants to restructure his contract in a major way to make his escape from a depressing situation in Houston, this could happen. Without a serious contract revision, I wouldn't take the speculation seriously. My connections were downplaying the possibility this morning, because the Oswalt contract math is bad math for the Cardinals. And if the Astros make ridiculous demands, the Cardinals won't make this deal. But perhaps Oswalt will pressure Houston management to get this done. Because he has the contractual power to veto trades and could use this to push his way to STL. I'd also think that if the Cardinals had to surrender elite prospects, they'd expect the Astros to digest a big portion of the many millions owed to Oswalt.
Who knows?
But just for kicks, let's take a look.
WHY OSWALT MAKES SENSE:
* The dude is still one helluva pitcher. Oswalt turns 33 next month, but there's been no deterioration. His fastball averages 92.9 mph, which is right there with his career norm. According to FanGraphs, the Oswalt fastball, slider and curve are still plus pitches; only his changeup is so-so. His strikeout rate of 8.49 per nine IP is the second-highest of his career. His walks/hits per 9 IP of 1.07 is the second-lowest of his career. His swinging-strike and contact rates are in line with what Oswalt has always done. Same with his line-drive rate. Forget Oswalt's won-loss record (6-11) this season; it's irrelevant. The Astros have scored 10 runs in his 11 losses. Oswalt's standard ERA is 3.12 and his xFIP of 3.42 is his lowest (best) since 2005. Roy O has held up very well.
* Adding Oswalt would give the Cardinals a top four of Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia and Oswalt. The fifth starter could be Kyle Lohse, or, until then, Jeff Suppan -- with Blake Hawksworth sliding back to the long-relief gig. And if Brad Penny heals and can go at some point, then you can see where the rotation is and adjust if necessary.
As is, the Cardinals have the best starting-pitching ERA in the majors at 3.23. Through Wednesday, Wainwright (2.02) was ranked 2nd in the majors in ERA, Garcia (2.21) was 3rd and Carpenter (3.05) was 18th. Oswalt is ranked 19th in ERA. So if you insert Oswalt, you are talking about having four Top 20 pitchers in your five-man rotation. I think it is safe to say that this would easily give the Cardinals the best rotation in baseball from top to bottom.
* Peek ahead to the postseason: In the LDS, an opponent would have to take on any possible number of combinations in the first two games. Wainwright-Carpenter, Wainwright-Oswalt, Wainwright-Garcia. And no matter who manager Tony La Russa chose to open the first two games -- and much could depend on the late-season schedule and who had to pitch on the final weekend -- the Cardinals would have two superb pitchers waiting to throw at the opponent in Games 3 and 4. And then the Cardinals' No. 1 starter would be ready to go again in Game 5. And in a 7-game series, it's almost ridiculous to see how La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan could map out a plan of attack with their starters. Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia and Oswalt obviously could combine to handle all seven games (if the series goes the distance) and as we look at this rotation today, there is no weak link. Heck, when the Cardinals won the World Series in 2006, they were so thin in the rotation that Anthony Reyes had to start Game 1, and he wasn't even in the regular-season rotation. And the Cardinals' winning pitcher in the clinching Game 5 was late-season pickup Jeff Weaver, who had a 6.29 ERA when essentially dumped by the Angels. The 2006 Cardinals played 16 postseason games; Weaver (5) and Reyes (2) combined to start 7 of the 16, with Carpenter starting 5 and Suppan 4. This rotation, if healthy, would bring remarkable pitching firepower to the postseason tournament.
* You have to go for it now: La Russa may retire after the season. You may lose Albert Pujols to free agency after 2011. You never know how many great starts are left in Carpenter's arm. This is known as a window of opportunity, and it won't be open forever.
* Oswalt is a good clubhouse guy. He'd fit in very well. No ego issues. He'd be going on hunting/fishing expeditions with Wainwright, Ryan Franklin and Kyle McClellan (among others) in no time. I can't remember if Carpenter hunts, but Oswalt could get him to hunt even if he doesn't. (Oswalt actually owns hunting property in Illinois.)
WHY OSWALT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE
* Money and payroll. He's owed around $7 million for the remainder of this season (not a problem) and $16 million in 2011. Oswalt has a club option of $16 million for 2012 -- or the club must buy him out at $2 million if it declines to pick up the option. We're not sure if Oswalt will waive the 2012 option for the Cardinals, or at least amend the option. That's one rumor going around, that he'd help the Cardinals out because he'd like to pitch here. I have no idea. But the numbers are imposing. If the Cardinals bring back Ryan Ludwick for 2011 with an increase in salary over his current $5 million, they would be committed to spending around $85 million on 10 players. And that doesn't include Oswalt. With Oswalt's $16 million, that would be 11 players taking up $101 million (or so) of payroll space. Again: only 11 players, $101 million. And how much will the other 14 players make? Good luck, even if you subtract Ludwick.
And let's not even get into 2012. Pujols has to be re-signed after 2011, and he isn't going to settle for a discount. Yes, the Cardinals could squeeze in Oswalt's $16 million option if it's still there for 2012 by declining to pick up Carp's $15 million option for 2012. So you're talking about swapping out Carpenter (who granted is about 2 years older) for Oswalt. Does that really make you better in 2012?
A lot of the town's talk-show hosts who are going into spasms over Oswalt should probably go to a calculator and spend a few moments to work the math.
Perhaps Oswalt will do a massive restructuring to help the Cardinals out. Again, I have no idea. Yes he wants to pitch here. That much already has been established. But that doesn't mean he's going to give up a bunch of money. If Oswalt is willing to sacrifice a lot of money, then Cardinals fans would have even more reasons to love him.
* Oswalt could break down at any time. He's had chronic back issues that have not hindered him this season. But you never know when and if it will become an issue.
* You can't keep doing this, trading kids for high-priced veterans. I'm assuming the Cardinals would have to deal No. 1 prospect Shelby Miller to land Oswalt; maybe not. But let's pretend that Miller is part of the deal. The kid has a great arm, is competitive, can throw multiple plus pitches, and is surprisingly mature. (Yes, he could always break down, too.) The Cardinals have failed to consistently draft and develop young, elite starting pitchers -- which explains why we're even having this conversation about going after Oswalt. At some point, the Cardinals must start developing their own. Garcia was a start. But if the team plans to sign Pujols to a long-term deal, matched with Matt Holliday's long-term deal -- and if they plan to give Wainwright a long-term extension after 2012 -- then the club simply cannot afford to part with the six years of cheap, quality pitching that Miller should provide. At some point you have to develop your own Oswalt instead of buying an Oswalt at a high price.
* The Cardinals don't have enough offense. Remember last October? Remember what happened against the Dodgers? They couldn't score. Well, at least not much, anyway. Six runs in three games. And gone. Oswalt is great, but does it matter if he goes into the playoffs and loses 1-0, 2-1 or 3-2?
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***Offical 2010 STL Cardinals Baseball Thread ***
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