I DO want to work tomorrow, as a matter of fact I can't fathom not being there tomorrow. NO SNOW plez.

So at 2:01 p.m. the National Weather Service issues a blizzard warning that said 8-14 inches are expected, then a few minutes later it cuts that prediction in half (according the the map)?

I'm cool with that, but, wow, things change fast I guesss.

TWENTY inches of snow in STL?

Someone might want to tell the forecasters here.

I'm from Iowa, and I've never seen 24 inches of snow. We are all going to die.

We're closed tonight starting in a half-hour.

Not expecting to hold classes on Tuesday/Wednesday either.

That's just a model, not a prediction. Surely they would have looked at it before, given the time of the warning, so I wouldn't get too excited yet.

Here's the latest NAM, and it's still showing ~8 in KC

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php...&archive=false

At first they were forecasting a bunch of ice saying it could be like the ice storm we had back in 2007. I would be okay with that as long as I don't lose electricity this time.

...I'd better stock up on beer.

The models tend to overreact to changes. I bet the next couple runs will trend back west. They do it even worse with hurricanes, which are a tad trickier to predict. If they still have winter storm warnings to central Kansas I doubt we are going to have anything less than 8".

Lezak never gets enough inches.

FYI. there are tons of models that the weather people use, the nam is one of them, there are 4 runs in a day (every 6 hours), and those models are used as guides. The predictions of 12+ in Eastern kansas - Missouri are from ALL of the models. ONE model run, from ONE model could mean something or it may not, its the trend of ALL the models on ALL of the model runs that matter.

the other thing to realize is that those model maps are useually on a 10:1 ratio, aka 10 inches of snow per 1 inch of moisture. it is expected that KC will be in a .75-1.25 range. (some models have us up to 1.5). BUT the main factor is that at the start the ratio could be 10:1 but eventually become 12:1 and then 15-20:1 as it gets colder in the atmosphere.

So anyways, the reason you are seeing the HIGH totals is because the important factor is how much liquid we will get and what the ratio will be.

We will have a HUGE storm. And it WILL be cold afterwards.

Yeah, I heard the cold air is dropping south faster than many of the models predicted. I guess we will see how that pans out. Warm, moist air colliding with cold, arctic air is a recipe for some damn good snow totals.

Weather.com map is still showing nothing up until 9pm this evening, keep praying it's working! ;)

We are only supposed to get a couple inches overnight, the main storm will hit Tuesday DAY/afternoon - Night