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Fat Elvis 01-14-2010 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania (Post 6444737)
Yeah, aside from looking for people that are "self proclaimed" phenoms on the best way to judge the creation of a team like we've done.... it's going to be difficult to not view it in a fantasy light.

Perhaps TDs could be weighted based on who scored them. QB tds are worth a certain value; RB tds are another value; WR tds are a third value. All these tds are then modified by the value of the O-line; the assumption would be that a stout O-line would produce more tds while a weak o-line would of resulted in fewer tds. I'm sure cd has a pretty good formula.

I completely misunderstood how this was going to work out. I thought we were going to have head to head matchups and dicsuss the types of offenses and defenses we would implement against the other team given our personel and then everyone who participated in the draft would vote for the winner. We'd keep doing that until we had an "ultimate winner" or whatever.

Mile High Mania 01-14-2010 03:44 PM

I wasn't sure what was happening...

All I knew was it was a "wide open" draft to build a team with very few limitations, if any really at all. So, with that in mind... I went forward with the notion that I would put together as many great players at each position as I could acquire.

I think that anything involving weighted formulas will produce something that won't matter much. There are a few teams that you can look at and say "yeah, they're head and shoulders above the rest".

Rain Man 01-14-2010 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania (Post 6445390)
I wasn't sure what was happening...

All I knew was it was a "wide open" draft to build a team with very few limitations, if any really at all. So, with that in mind... I went forward with the notion that I would put together as many great players at each position as I could acquire.

I think that anything involving weighted formulas will produce something that won't matter much. There are a few teams that you can look at and say "yeah, they're head and shoulders above the rest".

That last paragraph is my initial thinking. It may be a little harder in Year 1, but we'll diverge over time.

Though I must say, I'm interested in Fat Elvis' suggestion of going head to head, and in the tradition of the early NFL, the best record wins the championship. What do people think about that idea? (This is pending, of course, cdcox developing a formula for the whole thing.)

Mile High Mania 01-14-2010 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man (Post 6445519)
That last paragraph is my initial thinking. It may be a little harder in Year 1, but we'll diverge over time.

Though I must say, I'm interested in Fat Elvis' suggestion of going head to head, and in the tradition of the early NFL, the best record wins the championship. What do people think about that idea? (This is pending, of course, cdcox developing a formula for the whole thing.)

So, it would become fantasy football... :clap:

It may be best for everyone just to suck it up, throw all the teams out there with a blurb from each person (100 words or less) on the strategy/creation of the team and then let a vote happen.

Rain Man 01-14-2010 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania (Post 6445530)
So, it would become fantasy football... :clap:

It may be best for everyone just to suck it up, throw all the teams out there with a blurb from each person (100 words or less) on the strategy/creation of the team and then let a vote happen.

Nah, I don't think it'd be fantasy from a scoring perspective, but a head-to-head would be interesting when comparing one team that has certain areas of strength to another that might have different areas.

cdcox 01-14-2010 08:58 PM

Nah, my method wouldn't be like Fantasy at all.

First, I wouldn't play any games until the end of the season so that all of the data that characterizes a players performance is known before we play any of our games. At the end of the season, we'd play a full schedule of our games. Each player's performance in a given week would be randomly generated based on the distribution of that players performances over the season. Based on the aggregate performance of all your players and the aggregate performance of your opponents players, the game out come will be determined. Also, there is a random outcome of each game.

If your OL is bad at run blocking, that's going to hurt the productivity of your running game. Similarly if you are playing against a team with a good run defense. that is going to hurt your running game too. The effects are compounded, so the matchups matter. Your whole team contributes to your victory, not just the skill players.

Furthermore, I think I can accurately simulate the effect of depth and team strategy. If you want to run 3, 4, or 5 WR during some of your plays, it will matter how good your depth is. Or if you are running a two TE set, you better have multiple good TEs. On the other hand, if your WR are Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, Austin Miles, Sidney Rice and Randy Moss, you are going to lose some of the productivity of those players relative to the real NFL because there are only so many balls to go around

So this is my vision. Like I say, I think the data is out there. But for this level of characterization you need a lot of data and you need to bring it together in an organized format to do the calculations. Then you have to develop and test your models, then bring it together. This is the kind of thing I enjoy doing,but it may take me a while (months) given my heavy work schedule.

Given the delay for me do develop my method, I think the idea of voting isn't bad at all. If/when I get my method pulled together we can run it then.

Chiefs=Champions 01-15-2010 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox (Post 6446120)
Nah, my method wouldn't be like Fantasy at all.

First, I wouldn't play any games until the end of the season so that all of the data that characterizes a players performance is known before we play any of our games. At the end of the season, we'd play a full schedule of our games. Each player's performance in a given week would be randomly generated based on the distribution of that players performances over the season. Based on the aggregate performance of all your players and the aggregate performance of your opponents players, the game out come will be determined. Also, there is a random outcome of each game.

If your OL is bad at run blocking, that's going to hurt the productivity of your running game. Similarly if you are playing against a team with a good run defense. that is going to hurt your running game too. The effects are compounded, so the matchups matter. Your whole team contributes to your victory, not just the skill players.

Furthermore, I think I can accurately simulate the effect of depth and team strategy. If you want to run 3, 4, or 5 WR during some of your plays, it will matter how good your depth is. Or if you are running a two TE set, you better have multiple good TEs. On the other hand, if your WR are Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, Austin Miles, Sidney Rice and Randy Moss, you are going to lose some of the productivity of those players relative to the real NFL because there are only so many balls to go around

So this is my vision. Like I say, I think the data is out there. But for this level of characterization you need a lot of data and you need to bring it together in an organized format to do the calculations. Then you have to develop and test your models, then bring it together. This is the kind of thing I enjoy doing,but it may take me a while (months) given my heavy work schedule.

Given the delay for me do develop my method, I think the idea of voting isn't bad at all. If/when I get my method pulled together we can run it then.

If this was facebook id like this. I dont see why we cant have it both ways. a voting platform and a formula method.

its a looong offseason afterall. provided uv got the time i think you should run with this man. Cheers!

Fat Elvis 01-15-2010 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox (Post 6446120)
Nah, my method wouldn't be like Fantasy at all.

First, I wouldn't play any games until the end of the season so that all of the data that characterizes a players performance is known before we play any of our games. At the end of the season, we'd play a full schedule of our games. Each player's performance in a given week would be randomly generated based on the distribution of that players performances over the season. Based on the aggregate performance of all your players and the aggregate performance of your opponents players, the game out come will be determined. Also, there is a random outcome of each game.

If your OL is bad at run blocking, that's going to hurt the productivity of your running game. Similarly if you are playing against a team with a good run defense. that is going to hurt your running game too. The effects are compounded, so the matchups matter. Your whole team contributes to your victory, not just the skill players.

Furthermore, I think I can accurately simulate the effect of depth and team strategy. If you want to run 3, 4, or 5 WR during some of your plays, it will matter how good your depth is. Or if you are running a two TE set, you better have multiple good TEs. On the other hand, if your WR are Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, Austin Miles, Sidney Rice and Randy Moss, you are going to lose some of the productivity of those players relative to the real NFL because there are only so many balls to go around

So this is my vision. Like I say, I think the data is out there. But for this level of characterization you need a lot of data and you need to bring it together in an organized format to do the calculations. Then you have to develop and test your models, then bring it together. This is the kind of thing I enjoy doing,but it may take me a while (months) given my heavy work schedule.

Given the delay for me do develop my method, I think the idea of voting isn't bad at all. If/when I get my method pulled together we can run it then.

Could you incorporate the findings in this paper into your model? It is why I didn't choose a punter (especially when you have my offense....)

chiefscafan 01-18-2010 09:14 PM

So what is the draft order of this with traded picks

Mr. Arrowhead 01-19-2010 08:34 AM

my team sucked bad

Bwana 01-19-2010 09:17 AM

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Fat Elvis 02-16-2010 09:27 AM

Are we going to do something with this game?

jwazzie 02-16-2010 11:12 AM

Looking back my team was old and terrible. Better Next Year for the WWW!

Fat Elvis 02-16-2010 02:33 PM

So is this some weird episode of Lost where the Alternate Reality Game 3 teams wind up on an island after some WWII Bomber Squadrons crash landed?

Rain Man 02-16-2010 06:10 PM

Yeah, definitely. I've just been busy at work since the Super Bowl. Can you (or someone) pm all the players and let them know that they need to identify their starting lineups and make a short pitch for their teams?

I've been looking forward to doing this, but have been a little too busy to devote time to it.


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