Quote:
Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi
(Post 14344418)
Seymour was in position, he didn’t check it through.
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Just watched the hand last part of the hand via some guys twitter but didn't see the whole thing. You guys need to think in terms of big blinds. As I'm sure most of you know, stack sizes change how hands are played drastically. It was effective 24 big blinds. Looks like Seymour must have opened TT from the small blind, and got called by the big blind. In tournaments with an ante, people HAVE to defend their big blind extremely wide and they have to defend their big blind more or less by how often the player who initially raised plays. Many people will defend their big blind vs a late position raise (in a tournament with antes) with ANY suited hand, which is probably correct against how much most players are opening preflop these days. And against a small blind open it's even more. Ranges are very wide blind vs blind.
It appears Seymour cbet on 8d4h2c and folded when he got jammed on for 24 big blinds total. It's generally a call against most players. You really need a specific player to be able to fold this hand to. I'm sure GTO solvers continuation bet call with TT here at this stack depth. It is an rather low dry board, so there aren't any combo draws. Many players don't raise cbets much on these types of boards at all at this stack depth. In my experience, if an amateur raises on a dry board, it usually is not the nuts very often as they like to trap dry boards more often & don't have a very large thin value raising range.
While the big blind has a range advantage on this flop, they are still repping pretty thin since they have to defend so many hands to begin with. TT is just too strong of a hand to fold. Many players will get in 88 preflop at 24 big blinds vs a small blind open but the big blind can still rep all sets & almost all two pairs.
The big blinds range when they raise all in probably looks like this: 22, 44, 88 (can discount 88 some), A8, K8 (maybe even J8+) 99 (can discount this some as most people are 3betting this preflop), A5, A3, 65ss, 53ss, 76 with backdoor flush draw (maybe),two pairs and possibility of random spaz air a low percentage of the time. There are way more combos of two pairs, top pairs, draws than sets.
Basically if you are going to continuation bet over pairs and fold for 24 big blinds - the big blind can exploit you by raising almost anytime you cbet because they know you will almost NEVER call. In this situation his TT is as good as AA when he gets jammed on because the big blind virtually NEVER has JJ, QQ, KK or AA. In fact, it's arguably one of the BEST over pairs to cbet/call with other than JJ or QQ because having AA or KK would block top pair 8s with good kickers and Ace high wheel draws and ace highs & king highs an amateur might spaz with.