ChiefsPlanet - Football Narratives That Need to Die

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Narratives That Need to Die (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=336664)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 15513221)

Skip and Stephen A. said exactly this, this morning. Afternoon. Whatever. Stephen A. went so far as to say that if Rodgers/Allen were under center for KC instead of Mahomes, we'd see exactly the same results.

Watch that video in the Mahomes thread where he simply shrugs off unblocked defenders and completes passes for first downs. Zero other guys can do that and he does it regularly.

I think a lot of those hold more true of lesser teams. Like the resting players, those teams punching above their weight seem to struggle in the playoffs when they rest players the last week.

Quote:

Originally Posted by morphius (Post 15513240)

I think a lot of those hold more true of lesser teams. Like the resting players, those teams punching above their weight seem to struggle in the playoffs when they rest players the last week.

Chief Fan seemed pretty sure resting our guys was going to, somehow, bite us in the ass. Like, Mahomes was going to come out rusty or some ridiculous garbage.

I hate the whole "Since week x Team/player x has been _____(add superlative of choice) "
Seems rife in today's lazy journalism.

Rest starters is bad imo is officially an excuse. Chiefs had 3 weeks off

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla (Post 15513251)

Chief Fan seemed pretty sure resting our guys was going to, somehow, bite us in the ass. Like, Mahomes was going to come out rusty or some ridiculous garbage.

I'm sure some would, there have been teams that have come out flat after the break. I don't really think we need to worry about that. But give me a lesser QB that is in a groove, and I might be concerned.

Quote:

Originally Posted by frozenchief (Post 15513129)

1. This is a great post. Good use of facts rather than just mindlessly repeating the same old cliches like some kind of damn puppet.

2. There’s a Narrative to which I have subscribed that will be tested this weekend: how important is the O line? Granted, it can’t be garbage but I have argued here (and elsewhere) that with a QB like Mahomes, KC should invest the money in enough of the O line to be among the best O lines in the league. I think Remmers is pretty good but he’s not as good as Fisher or Schwartz. Our O line has been ravaged by injuries this year and yet they’ve done well enough to protect Mahomes and allow our offense to function. They’ve done well enough that while I would like to see improvement, I at least question the Narrative.

this upcoming Super Bowl will certainly test the Narrative. I’ve admitted when I’ve been wrong before. I’ll do it again. If our patchwork O-line can provide enough protection to allow our offense to function well, it will be persuasive evidence against my argument. And if our O-line falters, that Narrative might survive to another day.

Hell, what am I talking about? Of course the Narrative will survive. Some people believe what they want to believe irrespective of all evidence. But if our O line does a respectable job, I will at least re-consider my embrace of that Narrative. (But we should still get an upgrade at center this off season, whether by trade free-agency or draft.)

Anyway, great post. Thanks for putting thought into this and posting something intelligent.

I have an unhealthy bias against that narrative because of all the years of "it's the offensive line!!".... and then I'd watch a QB like Rodgers, with a worse line, be able to deal with it instead of falling into the fetal position at the slightest pressure.

For Mahomes though, I think there would be diminishing returns at some point.... if he can make it to the SB with this many injuries/opt-outs/etc. to this line and win it all with last year's line........ what does say the 15th best line in the league get him? 10th best? 5th best? The best?

Eventually, it just wouldn't matter, as I don't see his production increasing at the same rate as the line gets better and better... it's not like he'll be throwing for 600 yards/game, because the chance of completing a longer pass or whatever will never be all that close to 100%.

The other part of that, of course, is protecting him.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla (Post 15513214)

Possible Narrative: Mahomes is a product of his insane weapons. Pat simply throws to wide-open Kelce or Hill on every play.

The Truth: This is horseshit. Mahomes is most likely THE best ever.

Example: The Chiefs pre-Mahomes as a starter? Maybe a playoff win. The Chiefs post-Mahomes as a starter? AFC Championship game at a minimum. More likely, the Chiefs are Super Bowl Champs/Favorites.

Yep, and there's already some truth to that.... no offensive line to speak of, but still in the SB. Overcomes injuries to his starting RB, without his 2nd WR for weeks, overcoming a 24 point deficit last year because of dropped passes and muffed punts... overcoming an early 9 point deficit in the AFCCG (something that, say, Lamar Jackson had never done prior to the Titans' game).

I'm thinking the truth to that is.... sure, the level of dominance is a product of having insane weapons, and he'd have less margin for error without them.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bearcat (Post 15513084)

This is the condensed version of it! LMAO

It's the past 3 months of opposing fan arguments in one thread.

As someone who posts gifs like 70% of the time, I did fail when it comes to not providing pictures. The reddit video that I posted earlier sums it up in a way though.

Enjoying this lovely Arizona weather? :D

Good stuff.

Along with this narrative I would add that not all points scored are created equal. Garbage time points when a team is down 3 scores doesn't really mean anything yet they effect point differential and can skew perceptions.

Points given up when a team is behind, tied, or leading by 8 or less points is a bigger indicator of how effective your defense is.

For example KC's knack for giving up very few 2nd and 3rd quarter points is very large in their ability to consistently win. They have also been good in tight games in the 4th quarter when needed. Obviously the 1st Raiders game is the only exception and one outlier is not a pattern.

Quote:

Fallacy: Regular season results are truly indicative of playoff success.
Possible Narrative: Any given 11+ win team is primed to upset an experienced playoff team.
The Truth: The playoffs are a different beast and playoff experience matters. A lot.
Examples: Browns, Bills, Ravens for the past two seasons.

Possible Narrative: Point differential matters.
The Truth: It can matter in extreme cases, such as an 11-win Browns team having a negative point differential. It may matter to a certain extent, but is a small part of the overall big picture. It certainly does not matter against non-playoff teams.
Examples: The Bills blowing out non-playoff teams. The Chiefs not blowing out non-playoff teams (or most teams).

What I find funny is the TOP stuff. At some point late last year Reid figured out that he needed to help the defense a bit and actually started using more time on drives with more run plays, short passes, etc, to give them rest. Made the entire team better.

Only one I'd push back on is the "switch flipping".

The Chiefs are about the only damn football team I've seen be able to do it like they do.

I agree with Marcellus. Not all points given up are equal. Would love to see a points allowed stat where points given up by a defense don't count against them when up by 2 scores in the 4th qtr or 3 scores during the game.

It’s a one game sample size (although it was the AFC Championship Game), but the narrative that the Chiefs offense takes a step back without Sammy Watkins was maybe put to rest on Sunday.

That’s as good as the Chiefs offense has looked all season.

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88 (Post 15514062)

I think Hardman took a big step forward as well. He screwed up big time but the Chiefs turned around and fed him the ball the next series and got his head back in the game. Big boost of confidence when your QB and coach don't bench you or never let you touch the ball again. With the weapons the Chiefs has he knows his touches are limited and I think he tries way too hard on most of them.