Originally Posted by cdcox (Post 17075831)

I calculated the drop rate of every WR by:

Drop rate = drops/(drops+receptions)

The denominator of that represents catchable balls.

I then plotted the drop rate in 2021 vs the drop rate in 2022 of every receiver who caught at least 50 passes in both years. If some players had better hands than others, you'd expect them to have similar drop rates in both years and all the points to be scattered on a 45 degree line. Instead you get a scatter plot with a correlation coefficient of only 0.2. There is another analysis I did, but it is a little more complex.