Offense went slightly off after Hunt's debacle and some top 10 defenses more than Watkins. Watkins will be nice to have back, but we are starting to gel again after having one of the best RB's in the league bounce himself from the team...

What’s the weather forecast for the game?

I think the biggest key is whether their vaunted Oline really can beat our pass rush. If we can't pressure Luck I think you have to expect something like the no punt game. Get our normal pressure we can stop them enough to win by more than a TD. Either way sit back and enjoy the Mahomes show.

Unseasonably warm, no precipitation

Yeah, but Watkins is key to this offense as well, because then it forces defenses to be more honest instead of rotating covers to Kelce or Tyreek. As a defensive coordinator, Kelvin Benjamin doesn't scare me. Chris Conley doesn't scare me. Robinson.... maybe, depending on which Robinson shows up.

Also, I will be curious to see what kind of a game plan Andy and his staff is going to put together. If they go sideways too much......

If the "lets throw sideways, run triple fake screen shovel pass, punt to save 15 yards Andy Reid shows up, there could be problems.

Mahomes needs to be able to say "**** that noise" and change the play to something coherent. If the chiefs should make it to the big game, I fully believe Mahomes will have to overcome some typical Stupid **** Andy moments.

After Saturday, Andrew Luck will have his whole off-season to talk to his therapist about his new phobia of the number "95".

No. Inaccurate. Overcoming Sutton will be the only coaching issue.

It's also going to be interesting to see what the Colts do. Today they played very conservatively and kept everything in front of them. Watson really couldn't take advantage of it. Will they try to do it again next week and try to prevent big plays? If so, Mahomes will have to be patient.

Vegas never agrees or disagrees. Vegas never bets money on the games. All the line from Vegas tells you is what the bettors Vegas has access to believe.

Vegas then moves the line up or down, not dependent upon their own inside football knowledge, but rather the movement is made to get the same amount of money on both sides. If too much money goes on the Chiefs, they will give more points to the Colts or they will reduce the points given to the Colts if not enough people pick the Chiefs.

Vegas doesn't care about QB ratings or injuries or the weather. All they care about is the dollar figure on each side of the bet. It makes their life very simple. The only problem they run into is when bettors will not move to the weak money side even when they throw heavy points that way. Now the bettors can certainly be influenced by ratings and injuries and weather and decide their wager accordingly. When Vegas adjusts the line, it is to react to the bettors' behaviors, not the conditions that influence them.

When you are the house, you make money no matter who wins as long as you can get the bets to balance out on both sides of the line.

No shit...:rolleyes:

I think he was referring to the opening lines...

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...81bd31975c.jpg

Watkins better be playing. If they're focused on covering up their weakness to TEs then that leaves Hill and Watkins to put in some serious work. Robinson amd Harris also could have big days if left unaccounted for..

The sharps are the "smart money" and initial consensus favors Chiefs.

Colts are weakest team in playoffs, only quality wins are against Texans and Cowboys. It shouldn't even be close or a shootout. I'm thinking 42-14 Chiefs.

yeppers. sharps & oddsmakers :clap:

If Andy finds a way to lose this Home game against the #6 Seed with the MVP of the NFL throwing the ball for us- he should be packing his office on Monday.

If he can't win this game, he will never win.

Bottom 5 defense in the league. There's your built in excuse if it happens.

Either we advance or Sutton is gone. It will be interesting to see the threshold for retaining Sutton - AFCCG or SB.

The Colts are not nearly consistent enough on offense to keep up in this game. Luck will be under more pressure than he has seen in a while and he will force some balls and throw at least two picks. I am not worried about this game at all. I don’t want to hear about their defense either. Watson missed guys wide open all night. Mahomes won’t do that.

Here are the QBs the Colts have played since their 1-5 start.

Derek Anderson
Derek Carr
Blake Bortles
Gabbert/Mariota
Ryan Tannehill
Cody Kessler
Deshaun Watson
Dak Prescott
Eli Manning
Blaine Gabbert
Deshaun Watson

Any of them that are even half way decent put points on them other than Prescott and Watson tonight. Though it was obvious they left numerous scores on the field.

If I’m the Colts this list scares me knowing that they have no idea what is about to hit them and that they are absolutely not prepared or able to stop it.

Holy yikes.

They are about to get "Mahomed"...Watkins coming back will be huge.

First team in NFL history to score 26 points or more EVERY game this year...Colts just got blanked by the Jags 4 weeks ago. Yes...that's ZERO points.

I know people think Reid is a great coach and offensive genius, but he struggles with play calling in the playoffs, especially late in the game with a lead, and sometimes he inexplicably has a stroke while calling plays with goal to go.

I know Mahomes has been the best player in the league this year, but he cannot let this game be too big for him, and he has to play within himself, and avoid poor decisions by not trying to force something when it's not there. With our defense we cannot allow Indy to have any extra possessions.

I have been to two home playoff losses to the Colts, and Luck led the huge comeback in the last playoff meeting. Luck will be very confident and his team will follow his lead, and I feel like all the pressure will be on us to win, to break the curse, and to break the playoff losing streaks of home playoff losses and playoff losses to Indy.

If we fall behind, we can't panic. We have to stay calm and focused. I want to believe that it will be different this time because of Mahomes, but I have been burned too many times, so I am finding it hard to be positive and optimistic. I was so sure that we would win during the regular season, and I didn't think I would feel this apprehensive and worried in the post season.

But suddenly I am having a lot of anxiety about this game. Luck is too good not to exploit our horrendous secondary, and his offensive line has protected him so well all year, and Sutton is clueless when it comes to blitzing, and he is bad at disguising coverages and blitzes.

Am I the only fan on Chiefsplanet who is nervous apprehensive about this game?

Sent from my LG-H932 using Tapatalk

Reading some of the Pats forums they are desperately convincing themselves that the Colts can take out KC. Their main reasons - The defense and Reid's choke jobs. Shouldn't those reasons be enough for them to come to Arrowhead with GOAT Brady nonetheless and win? They are afraid!
If the home playoff gorilla is off our backs next week the AFCCG may very well be a blowout.

They want no part of KC

New England fans are terrified of KC in Arrowhead. They know if KC makes it past the divisional, it may be all over for NE in the AFC

Yeeeeep.

I’ve always felt like if KC wins the first game, they’ll go to the SB. They just need to end that curse and it’s over. Didn’t matter who they played IMO.

NE scares me less than any team currently in the AFC playoffs.

I think the Patriots fans just want to play at home if they make it past Ravens/Chargers. As would any fan base. So they're convincing themselves whatever way possible for their ideal result.

Great find on the QB's the Colts have played against!

No, that's inaccurate. Reid has lost two huge second half leads because he refused to run the ball, even with the league's leading rusher in Kareem Hunt.

And with goal to go Reid has a history of running sweeps and pitches that go east and west, losing yardage. Last week he called 3 consecutive plays designed to go straight up the middle, turning it over on downs, and didn't even attempt a pass into the end zone. How do you turn it over on downs at the goal line and not even throw a single pass into the end zone with a mismatch problem like Kelce?

Mahomes will have to overcome Reid too.

Sent from my LG-H932 using Tapatalk

I am convinced we can win and worried when I think about Reid and the defense. If our offense is kept open and Mahomes doesn't throw interceptions, we can bury them.

Someone needs to email Mahomes and tell them the Colts play the same Cover 2 most every play. They telegraph their blitzes on the 23% times they try. They rush 5 a lot trying to create pressure that is not there- and flush out lessor QB's like Watson making them stop looking downfield where their CB's are ofter a few steps behind.

Luck is slow footed and not as effective without a clean pocket. He throws a lot of interceptions. He hasn't really played a tough defense unless you consider the Jags ( who we destroyed) tough. They will try and run it, which won't work when they are down three touchdowns in the third quarter.

Their Lucky season playing bums will end next week at Arrowhead.

Pats fans know they had an easy schedule that finished up with the Bills and Jets. Their team is old and will get stomped at Arrowhead if they somehow get past the Ravens, which they won't.

They know what they saw...Mahomes had them on the ropes in their house in his 5th ever start. They also know that the officials didn't call a single penalty on them... one drive ending flag and they would have lost.

They wont get that same level of "officiating" at Arrowhead as the NFL doesn't care that much about Brady anymore...they have a new ratings darling to coddle.

They want a game in their house...where they are used to getting calls that help them advance. That panic is like a trust-fund kid's reaction to when his daddy cuts him off..

If I was to make a list of the league's worst starting QBs, this would be pretty close.

I hope we ****ing destroy them.

I’m talking 45-21 destroy them.

I’m not ruling it out.

Probably won’t predict such, but I think it’s possible. KC has their eyes on the prize.

That's not unrealistic...Arrowhead is going to be unglued. Watkins and LDT..possibly Berry.

We haven't seen this team in a while...

This game should be rated M, for mature audiences, because of the way that Mahomes, Kelce and (hopefully a healthy) Watkins will abuse the middle of the field against that Colt defense.

Everyone wants LDT back. Tbh we don’t need him. Wylie has been playing damn good

Is Cam Irving playing?

If not, then LDT returning allows for Wylie to slide over to the left guard spot.

Oddly enough, Jeff Allen started last week. But, when he got hurt, Irving came in for him. I’m not sure what to make of that. Were they just trying to give Irving some extra time, but then he was forced in by Allen’s injury? Or, was Allen just getting the start ahead of him? I’m not sure, but it was weird.

The Colts are such an unknown because of that soft as shit schedule. I didn't respect them or the Texans because of that. Is their oline or defense that good or is that a product of the shit that they have been matched up against since week 6?

I believe that this was the best possible outcome for the Chiefs. I personally didn't want to play the Ravens again because of the physicality of that game. I don't want to play a team for the 3rd time again either that is a media darling. I want the Colts and in one game, Mahomes cant erase decades of losses and bad mojo in the playoffs.

This is a home game and the team had a bye week. Reid's coaching record on bye weeks is 17-3. They had time to get healthy while Indy had a road game.

Excellent post

I haven't been online much - where'd you hear Watkins is playing on Sat?

Great question Red! I haven’t heard anything about Watkins playing next week. Given the Chiefs history in the playoffs, I don’t want anyone resting next week. This, given their history in the playoffs, is their SuperBowl.

They should not be “saving” anyone for the next week......

Yeah, terrified. They already beat the Chiefs. If it weren’t for the Miami debacle you wouldn’t even have home field. I’m a lot more worried about Baltimore; those ****ers have no fear of the Pats and have beaten them in January in Gillette.

Doesn’t matter, though. Both sides can talk shit but if the AFCCG is Colts at Ravens we’ll all look pretty stupid. Let’s get through next weekend before we discuss how scared anyone is.

Haven't read the whole thread, but watching the Colts play soft zone cover 2 made me think of the Steelers early in the season, which Patrick and Travis completely dismantled.

Basically need the crowd to cause 2 false starts that end drives and it doesn't matter what the defense does then.

I’m not afraid of this colts teams.

The 10-1 run is impressive, but when you look at the schedule, it’s tissue paper soft.

They don’t rush the passer incredibly well. They haven’t faced an offensive attack that’s as explosive as the Chiefs in that span.

I think the KC defense will do enough and force at least 2 turnovers. Just have to get in some passing downs...

:eek: :clap:

I love Pats fans traveling to CP to tell us how “not scared” they are

But yeah, you’re totally correct on that last paragraph. KC has a first year QB and even NE doesn’t look as strong as normal

Colts are 22nd in rushing and their avg drive time is 2:39. They wont be able to keep up with the offense. This will be a blowout.

I don't have the numbers to prove it. But at quick glance it looks like the Colts are very slow starters. Chiefs are not great closers. We need to get off to a hot start.

We've seen a few games where mahomes gets too amped up early in big spotlight games. The bye week can also be tricky to get going quickly. We need to walk into the 4th quarter with a commanding lead.

Andy Reid’s first 15 scripted plays better be money. We need a quick start!

Don't know why, I must be crazy but I feel very confident about this match up.

Yes they are going to score points but I just can't see them getting enough. That secondary looked vulnerable yesterday.

Agreed. We've also seen mahomes too juiced up early in big games. Tends to make throws a little hot early. He's been outstanding in the second halves of those games. That will probably be fixed with experience. But hopefully Reid can calm him down early.

You do realize that they scored 50 points in a game without Watkins, right? 40 in another?

Ah, but they didn’t drop 40 on the Ravens, so they’ve stalled.

What about the refs? Are they of no concern now?

One upside of this is that the refs usually don't call as many penalties in the playoffs so the highly penalized grabby secondary probably gets away with more.

They're better with Watkins, let's not act like they aren't. Defenses respect him far more than our other guys and that alone opens up Kelce and Hill more.

Yup. We're still damn good without Watkins. But we really need him. Defenses have been playing us two deep and doubling up on those two. And our other receivers just aren't good enough to take advantage of one on one. Mahomes has had to hold on to the ball for way longer than I'd like.

This game reminds me a lot of when we would play Pittsburgh under Alex, specially in the playoff game.

They’ve got a a really strong OL, good run game, really good QB and WR. Defense plays predominantly cover 2 and they rely on a good ILB. Pittsburgh’s defense was better, though.

But the main difference of course.... Mahomes.

If they sit in cover 2 against this team, Watkins back, we should just pick them apart.

They’re going to. It’s what they’ve done all year, it’s their scheme. They don’t have the defensive talent to play riskier coverages (man to man, C3, etc).

Fisher and Schwartz better show up. They were each having a couple of shaky games down the stretch. If the Colts have to blitz to generate any pressure like last night, we'll be alright.

I think indy plays a ton of cover 3? It's a matchup I dont particularly love because they'll probably force us to beat them in the short game. The good news is Seattle was maybe a great blueprint for how we do it and we were really rolling in the second half.

They play mostly C2/Tampa 2

If we get a lead and get conservative, take the ball out of Mahomes hands, their wish may come true.

They’ve had to work harder to score but they’ve still gotten it done at basically the same clip.

Unfortunately this is the exact script for how we lost our last two playoff games.
As crazy as it sounds I would like to see a closer game all the way through so we don't have a chance of Andy and Bob going conservative too soon once again. We need to stay aggressive on both sides of the ball for four quarters.

I tend to agree. But luck has been dangerous as hell in the 4th. Usually gets off to slow starts. I hate giving Reid this situation but it's unfortunately our best option. My only hope is Reid suffered enough embarrassment from the last indy game with SD being nail in the coffin to realize no lead is ever safe.

This is asking a lot:D especially when our defense is mimicking the defense that allowed a 28 pt comeback. But IIRC our defense was severely beat up with Houston out back then. Did Berry play that game or was that the year the dirty Bills player took out his knee?

Ah, nice. Tampa 2 with less pressure could be a nightmare for the Colts vs mahomes. I hope.

He won’t bro. Thats how he is.

Unfortunately, we have to accept the fact that Andy Reid gets conservative in the playoffs. He has done this numerous times. It best explains a lot of his choke jobs with us and philly. That was a big reason he wore out his welcome in philly.

FYP ....and btw we do have a manure defense when it comes to the LB and 2ndary positions and why Boss made his point about a high scoring game.:shrug:

We need to get them in a hole quickly and keep them from the running game. PM2 needs to take what he can get instead of going for the home run. That will open up after he picks them apart on 8-10 yard strikes. Finally, both Andy and Bob (or whichever D coach is calling the plays) need to keep their boot on the Colts throat. If we hang 50 on them to their 14, so be it, it's playoff time.

I think he can get big chunks (15-20 yards) over the middle against that D.

I agree BUT Watkins needs to play and our O-line needs to step up even more ensuring we can run to keep their LBs and 2ndary honest because they are GOOD while neutering their interior d-line pressure up the middle which is where I think they will attack in order to get to Pat IMHO.

Like I have said in previous posts Watkins needs to play ensuring we will outscore them because whoever the Colts decide to double Mahomes literally will have 2-3 other lethal offensive weapons 'wide open' to choose from. IF Watkins plays and we can establish a respectable run game Pat will not have to be 100% perfect just 85-90% perfect(scoring TDs that is) on every possession because our LBs and 2ndary are that bad.

The Colts O-line is bad ass therefore we won't have a pass rush IMHO with the Colts attempting to keep Pat on the sidelines chewing up the clock with the run scoring TDs with timely big downfield passes.

If the Colts win the toss they will take the ball first in order to get that chance to hit us in the mouth first like they did the Texans. No way do they defer giving an MVP QB with 50 TDs and 5K passing with magical vision, howitzer arm, computer like brain, with uncanny athletic ability to make plays to hit them in the mouth first especially being on the road in the playoffs against the No.1 seed.

How about instead of you posting here anymore, you commit some suicide?? Thanks

3-3 in the last six games. Gave up 38 to Seahawks, 33 to raiders, and 29 to chargers. Going to be a high scoring game.