The worry is that you're paying for his decline years, while Arizona got the best of him.

Meh, I liked it much better at $110MM.

And TLR dumped Ozzie for Royce Clayton

We the Angels now!

Which was always the reason I hated this trade when it was made. I knew they were pot committed and I knew that would be their 'splash' - trying to build around a defensively limited and aging slugger.

It just doesn't work out well for teams. You don't build your team around 1b on the wrong side of 30, it simply doesn't work.

I don't know if that's the case here. A big reason (according to the analysts here) that Goldy didn't have the production of the previous year was that he didn't have anyone that could reliably get on base in front of him. If he gets some protection in the line-up I think he'll be pretty good. It's not like he's old, and he's never had a serious injury, just some inflammation in his elbow that one time.

And even with the lack of help last year I think he hit close to .300 (I believe it was .290 or .295 or something). Plus he knows how to get a hit in big games, which might be helpful in the playoffs if we make it that far.

He's never been a big team leader guy, but I don't think the Cards are asking that of him either. So if all he has to do is play his game, and he gets some consistency in front of him I really believe he'll get back to his previous form.

like DJ has said, in today’s FA market, the best you can hope for is a fair deal for both sides. Looks to be at market value.

We don’t have any 1B minor leaguers he’d block so, why not?

Yadi has a career wRC+ of 100, Vizquel is 83. Over the last 19 years, MLB average for catchers is 84 and 95 for SS. So, while Molina is 19 percent more productive than positional average, Vizquel is 12.6 percent worse. There is a large offensive gap between the two.

We do, they are just playing third right now.

im not going to get worked up about this signing as long as they don’t act like this was the equivlent of signing Harper etc. you could see this coming from the moment the trade was announced.

he’s a good player but needs other bats around him. He’s not carrying a team. We are going to need more offense from somewhere.

Gorman and Montero are both candidates to have to move across the diamond to 1B.

not anymore.....:D

We absolutely do. In addition to Gorman and Montero, there's Baker and possibly Torres.

Locking up 1b with the most expensive contract on your team is just incredibly stupid, especially on an extension that doesn't even start until 32.

This entire sequence has been wrong-headed from the start.

And he will still outhit Harper next year and the year after that and the year after that.....as well as play better defense for less money. By the time he hits 34 we will turn him into Big Pappy west. And one of those fine first base prospects can take over.

I really like your posts DJ on this board and at birdsonthebat, but your man-love for Harper has blinded you on this one.

Want to bet?

I’m with DJ. Harper is going to do huge things in Philadelphia and they’re never going to force him into CF, so his defensive value won’t take the hit it did the 2 years the Nats did that.

And if his defense slides in the OF, give him an offseason and he'll be every bit the defensive 1b Goldschmidt already is. He's simply a better athlete.

He has faaaaar further to fall on the defensive spectrum than Goldschmidt does. Even if he continues to struggle in RF, you still have LF to go before you need to worry about making the 1b conversion. Harper's overall athleticism would likely translate to a plus defensive LFer; something similar to what Ozuna was billed as.

I'm with you on Dewitt's approach is not the one I'd take. Going for 90 wins and a WC is not winning baseball. Mo's FA signings flop way more than hit.

But that being said, You act like we got another Gyrko level guy. He's a golden glover. An All-Star. Going to give us 5.5+ WAR. He runs the bases well. By all accounts has a great attitude and work ethic. We gave up spare parts for the guy. If he went to FA next year, he'd be the #1 FA on the market. The FA market money is stupid money. Who are we going to get better than him in FA in the next two years?



I had the man-love for Harper too. I said we should have gave him $350 million/10 and wrote off another $50 million for Fowler to go away. I've tried so many times to get into birdsonthebat and the admins never let me in. Has to be personal. :)

Ozuna is gone next year. Fowler sucks. Carp is going to be a year older. All those players you mentioned are not ready for the majors yet. What were they supposed to do besides sign Harper? We had to get some more offensive production in the lineup. Most of what I've read says its a reasonable deal in today market.

Goldschmidt's contract starts next year. We have him locked in for the next 6 years. Ages 31-36. AAV of $24.1 million salary for the 6 years.

That's not good.

The best move they've made this spring is actually the Wieters signing.

Why? Everything I've read says it was a good to fair deal.
I wanted Harper. Didn't happen. Besides that move, what would you have done to get some offense into the lineup?

There is nothing wrong with the deal other than they didn't get a Harper or Machato type younger player.

Goldy is the top ranked 1st basemen in MLB for FB, at $24MM per its cheap.

I guess the whole “we don’t want to sign a player to a deal that goes into his mid 30 decline years “ talk about why they wouldn’t d a long term one with Harper or machado was all talk

I wanted Harper as well. I do think this deal helps us. I hate the DH, but if it is coming to the NL then our young corner infield prospects will have room to ascend.

:harumph:DH in the NL

Would you rather pay 25 million in AAV for Paul Goldschmidt's decline years or 25 million in AAV for Bryce Harper's prime and then his decline years?

There were ways to make this all work out great, but this team in not well run.

The Sonny Corleone move would be to give Harper whatever he wants
The Fredo Corleone move would be to sign a 32 yo 1B to a five year extension
The Micheal Corleone move would be to sign Harper and give Goldschmidt a shorter deal with a higher AAV.

There is no ****ing way he would get 5/130 in FA w/ a QO attached to him. None.

This team is not intelligent. They routinely overpay for players on the wrong side of 30 (Fowler, Cecil, now Goldschmidt) and piss away millions on contracts for the most volatile and fungible players in baseball--middle relievers.

Gregerson+Cecil+Miller will be lucky to give the Cardinals 1.5 WAR this year, and they'll cost as much as Bryce Harper.

Sure, mostly agree, and I would add letting Pham go was idiotic. I still like having Goldy than not, despite thinking Harper was a better option both need wise and financially.

You don't get to count year 1 - that's an independent question.

They're paying $26 million/yr for a guy who can only play 1b (and eventually - sigh - DH), who hits RH and who's strikeout rate is going in the wrong direction. That's a very common problem for players approaching a dip in production in their early 30s, especially if they start to see issues with chase rates.

Possibility A is that they're not intelligent.
Possibility B is that they are, and their interests don't align with yours.

The 'Michael Corleone' move you suggest is certainly the best way to win a championship. But it's probably not cost-effective for a franchise that already puts 3 million in the stadium. Don't get me wrong - they won't lose money or anything close to it had they made that move. But they won't make as much.

I don't think they're unintelligent - I think they're willing to toss red-meat to the ill-informed masses so they can saw 'we tried' in a manner that doesn't create as many long-term liabilities. They're plenty smart, but they are putting that brainpower to making the most money possible, not winning the most games possible.

Dewitt admitted it when he said their goal is to win 90 games. This team doesn't care as much about winning as they used to and that's a difficult thing for us to get our minds around.

They could literally spend the same amount of money by not changing middle relievers, though. I have no doubt they care about profit, but even if that's all they care about they're still going about it the wrong way because they could spend the same amount of money and have a team that could win five more games at a minimum.

Gotta convince the fans you're trying, though.

And when the team loses ballgames in the late innings because their manager is a dipshit, they could just say "the bullpen was bad" and convince the rubes by signing Brett Cecil.

As for Andrew Miller...well, you may be right there. I have no earthly idea how the team that watched Cecil fall apart before their eyes and Holland completely implode, not to mention the demise of Gregerson after he was ridden so hard, can look at Miller and thing "well this time it will be different"

The Miller signing is one of the best examples of not learning from your mistakes you'll ever see. Best guess I have is that the 2 year deal was short enough to pique their interest.

I get that but its my understanding they are 2-3 years away, correct? We are just supposed to accept having sub par defenders and 1 bat position at those two offensive positions?

I think the NL will have the DH in two years as part of the new CBA, so thats not going to be an issue.

I wanted to pay Harper up to $400 million. I'm sure the posts will be easy to find. I was all in on Harper. Sucked it looks like we didnt even really try or he want interested in St. Louis? Either way, it didnt happen. Now what? Just put the same offense out there again that missed the playoffs 3 years in a row?
Irrelevant. Mo has made some bad deals, no, alot of bad deals. He needs to go. I'm with DJ on this, he stays because he's making money hand over fist for the Dewitts.They have two recent WS Championships, They are way too comfortable and "safe" with their FA's. That said......

I'm not going to beat them up on the money spent on salary as long as the Cardinals remain in the top 10 salary teams in baseball. We are never getting into the top 5. I think its a reasonable expectation to spend between the #5-#10 teams in baseball. We are there. Our issue has been spending it on the wrong players. Cecil, Fowler, Holland, Gregerson etc.

Langoush: STLCards rotation in Milwaukee will be as follows:

Mikolas (Thurs.)
Flaherty (Fri.)
Hudson (Sat.)
Wacha (Sun.)
That sets Wainwright up to start in Pittsburgh on Monday.
Flaherty draws the home opener at Busch Stadium.

That looks like about like what I would have hoped. Matheny probably would have started Wainright in the opener.

Not that it makes a difference over the course of the season, but I’m surprised Hudson is starting the season in the 3 spot.

Yes, somewhat, although that could just be about looking at match ups. Third/fourth starters or pretty interchangeable. It could also be about giving different looks in your rotation. He gives a slightly different look sandwiched between Flaherty and Wacha.

I wish I could say I enjoyed Wainos last opening day start.

I watched Hudson's last two appearances and he looked great.

I took Hudson in the last round of my fantasy league draft. He's listed as an RP in the Yahoo leagues.

Suffice it to say I'm pretty pumped about that pick.

CBS MLB top 100 player list for coming season...Always a lot to critique...Bryce Harper at 42? Josh Donalson at 62? Cardinals on the list, DeJong, Flaherty, Mikolas, Goldy, Carp and Molina show up. Pham and Piscotty as well. What a stupid move the Pham deal continues to be both financially and talent wise.

V\https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/t...o-2019-season/

Spring training is over. The roster is set. Go on the record. What’s our record this year?

I’m going with 92-80. Wild card berth.

Figure that Schilt should get us 2 more wins and Goldy gets us two more wins.

Cubs win the Central. Brewers and Cards are the WC’s.

Did they add some games to the schedule this year?

Something between 89-92 wins and a wildcard spot.

**** Turdy

Those other 10 games are playoff games. :D

The Pham deal cost the team the second WC last year and will hamstring them again this year. Mo will give 5/25 to any 2-3 WAR n00b and told Pham to **** himself. He's a clown

You can troll all you want, he was costing us peanuts, played decent defense, and delivering solid power and on base numbers. If Mo had any balls we would have Pham, Bader and ONeill in the outfield this year costing us pennies.

So we have 1 other fan go on the record? Bunch of wimps.:harumph:

I predict they will play fewer than 172 regular season games.

87-90 wins, that glass rotation will never hold up

maybe, but I’d still take our overall pitching over the Cubs and Brewers.

I would put the over under at 86.5. The NL Central could be brutal this year...no easy wins/series.

94 wins. Bank it. Mainly based on better defense and relief. Offense and starting pitching just needs to be on par with last season.

Didn't the bullpen give up 70 leads last season? We didn't lose all the games they lost a lead in but that's a horrendous stat.

Again, Go visit the Cubs boards, they are sooo unhappy with their club not doing something about their pitching. Their owner not spending money while making money hand over fist from the team and all the shit he's built by the ball park. Sound familiar? Their owner has publicly said we don't have money to spend.

Brewer fans are upset that their bullpen is going to ruin their season. Pissed off at ownership for not at least attempting to fix that issue that everyone sees as their weakness.

We all know Martizez is heading to to the bullpen when he returns. Our bullpen besides Hicks sucked most of the year, they had their moments but mostly gave up may too many leads. Martinez/Hicks/Miller/Reyes is the most talented bullpen in baseball. Period. If they perform to their talent level, and stay healthy, they will add at least 4 more wins this year.

Prospectus final

Beer makers 87
Cards 86
Red Men 80
Pilates 80
Cubbie Bears 79 mega-lollers

ROFL how in the **** is that even possible?

Lotta things are gonna have to break right for them to get above 92, hell probably even 88ish.

I don't know that I see it. They have a terrible horrible track record of signing relievers so I don't know that the bullpen will be much improved.

I get it, I think we are improved over the 88 win team last year. I'm a homer and will always think we have a chance, what fun is it to think otherwise?

However you ask me to look at objective projections I think that 87 wins is pretty legit. Now I think our pitching upside exceeds that of the other teams in the division, however our floor (due to innings limitations, injuries) is lower than say the Cubs.

When you see every team in the division with a legitimate shot at a .500 or better record, that is a factor you have to consider when looking at how many wins you are going to get.

The Cubs have something like 45% of their payroll plowed into their starting rotation and 3 guys each making over $20 million. That doesn't even speak to Hendricks new deal or the money they torched on Chatwood (or the prospect capital they plowed into Quintana). Cubs fans can be as pissed as they want but the Cubs shot their bullets. This was the approach they favored for a half decade when they were throwing all their draft capital at offense with an eye on buying their pitching staff.

I don't actually disagree with the approach given the volatility of pitching, but Cubs fans have little to bitch about. It isn't as though the Cubs haven't tried damn hard to address that rotation/bullpen.

Their bullpen was in great shape until injuries happened - there's only so much you can do when 2/3 of the back half of your bullpen goes down during training camp.


If they put Martinez AND Reyes in their bullpen they have done so much to blunt their top competitive advantage that they'd deserve the 86 win regular season that comes of it. They absolutely have to figure out a way for Martinez and Reyes to be in that starting rotation by the ASB. You run a starting 5 of Flaherty, Mikolas, Martinez, Reyes and....me....and you'd have among the most dynamic rotations in baseball. With the potential of Hudson and even Wacha as your 5th starter, you have a better than average chance of winning 2/3 of your games down the stretch.

The starting pitching has to get healthy and break right for them to do any damage. If their plan is to put 2 of the 3 most electric arms in their system in short relief roles, the organization is just as stupid as I thought it was.

I'd put the over/under at 88.5 and barely take the over at 89.

Surely to god they know not to put Reyes in the pen longer than enough time to build up his arm, right?

Same with Martinez.

They need to send Reyes back to Memphis to build up his service tim...I mean, arm strength.

He needs 65 days in the minors for the Cardinals to get back one of the years of service time they torched with 2 years of reeruned handling of him. It still burns me to no end that Mozeliak didn't just take him of the 60 day, option him to Memphis and let him pitch there. By 'saving' a 40 man spot to protect someone they didn't need anyway, they kept him on the 25 man roster while he rehabbed and then when he got injured he burned yet ANOTHER season of MLB service time.

He's ripped through 2+ years of cheap service time while rehabbing injuries that he shouldn't have even been on the damn MLB roster for. At least option his ass back down and get one of those back by only using about 60% of a season this year. Now you still have 4 years of control when the season is done. It's what they should've done last season coming off his previous injury to ensure they still had 5 at the beginning of this year and then they could've used him to their heart's content.

But Mozeliak is functionally reeruned so this won't happen.

Reyes is headed right down the Alan Benes path of being ground to hamburger and/or otherwise completely wasted.

I'm assuming they put Reyes in the bullpen to save innings. Expect him to pitch 2-3 innings backing up Waino or Wacha.

Also hoping the plan is......After the All-Star break go down to AAA and get stretched out to start a playoff game. Like DJ said, Reyes in the bullpen is a waste of talent.

Now Martinez obviously has problems with focusing. Maybe he has severe ADD or some other issue thats not publicly disclosed but whatever it is, when he is focused he can be one of the most dominate pitchers in baseball. When he's not, he's below average.

Because of his mental approach on the mound, maybe the bullpen is the right spot for him. Same issue we have with Carp batting lead off. For whatever reason, we have to bat him lead-off if we want that high level production.

Heard this point on a podcast when he got injured last year. Forget which podcast but they said the Cardinals couldnt do what you are talking about to stop service time because the contract Reyes signed. That many of the elite players have similiar contracts, injury cant stop the service time from ticking.


No idea if true or not, it was a podcast.

It's not accurate.

All signing a major league contract earlier in your career does is force teams to start burning up your options immediately (that's what happened with Drew). It forces teams to give guys a shot a little earlier which increases their earning potentially immensely when they get through their 6 years for FA. We know Reyes didn't sign a Major League contract when he first came into the Cardinals organization because we can confirm that he still has all 3 option years intact. So that path is irrelevant.

So if he has options, he can be sent down. If he can be sent down, he won't accumulate major league service time and if he doesn't accumulate the requisite 6 years of major league service time he CANNOT be a major league free agent.

The only thing that could change that is a contract similar to what Mikolas or Cespedes signed where the team that signed him is contractually prohibited from tendering him a salary when he is arbitration eligible. Mikolas, by rule, shouldn't have been a FA after this season but because his deal with the Cardinals prohibited them from offering him a tender, he'd have been a FA anyway. Oh was the same way.

Reyes, as an amateur FA, could've never negotiated a deal like that and if he did we'd have damn sure known about it before now because he's already burned 2 of his 3 pre-arb seasons and would theoretically be in his FA season this year.

Whoever said that is just flat-ass wrong and if it were accurate, you wouldn't see someone like Vlad Jr having his service time ****ed with right now. Or Eloy Jimenez. Or Acuna last season. All of those guys were much more highly regarded prospects when signed than Reyes was.

They're just wrong. The best argument they can make is a technical one -that INJURY can't stop it. That's technically right for any player. It's right for all MLB players regardless of contract. But that's not my point - my point is that you're not citing injury here. You're expressly taking him off the 60 day. You're saying he's sound but that he needs to go to the minors to be stretched out.

The Cardinals actually believed that last season. They kept him on the 60 day DL as a roster mechanism to avoid having to clear the additional 40 man spot. But they didn't believe he was still hurt. They could've taken him off the 60 day, activated him to the 40 man and then simply used an option year to 'stretch him out to start'. That has absolutely nothing to do with injury and he'd have no grounds to contest a service time issue. And then when he would've gotten hurt down there he'd have already been optioned off the 25 man so his service time wouldn't have continued to run while in the minors.

The Cardinals had a clear path here but they ****ed up.

Responsible contracts — including Paul Goldchmidt’s — have the Cardinals set up nicely for the future

By Bernie Miklasz Mar 25, 2019

By​ acquiring first​ baseman​ Paul​ Goldschmidt​ and​ signing​ him to​ a five-year​ contract extension, the​ Cardinals seem​ to​ reaffirmed their​ “Win​ Now!”​​ philosophy for 2019. That became a popular media meme during the final days of spring training.

I find this interesting for multiple reasons.

If 2019 is about winning now, then what about 2018, 2017 and 2016? The Cardinals missed the playoffs in all three seasons. Why not try to “Win Now” when approaching every season?
The Cardinals are a smart, efficient, well-run organization with vast financial resources and a healthy supply of prospects.

As far as I can tell, nothing prevented the Cardinals from making bold trades in recent seasons. The front office was free to make any move that inspired them into action.
And isn’t the Goldschmidt deal more of an example of jumping at an opportunity to secure a superb all-around player?

When a talent of Goldschmidt’s magnitude is available, you take advantage of the opportunity. Especially when the price — sending pitcher Luke Weaver, catcher Carson Kelly and a minor-league infielder to Arizona — was a fairly pain-free exchange that didn’t reduce the Cardinals’ chances of returning to the playoffs in 2019.

This was a proverbial no-brainer, not a seismic shift in philosophy. I don’t think this translated into a “Win Now” move; it translates into a winning move, a common-sense move.

How many Goldschmidt-type players surface on the trade market? And given the terms of this trade, how could the Cardinals possibly say no?

Acquiring Goldschmidt was an obvious addition, but I give Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak credit for backing up the trade by quickly signing Goldy to the contract extension.

Not that they had much of a choice. You don’t bring Goldschmidt here for a year, then let him stroll away. Convincing Goldschmidt to stay with the Cardinals beyond 2019 didn’t profile as an arduous challenge — it’s a natural fit — but it’s always a mistake to take these things for granted. The Cardinals got it done, and that’s what counts.

Kudos.

Here’s the more fascinating part — at least for me, anyway …

For all of the talk about winning now, this new Goldschmidt/Cardinals partnership is about setting up the Cardinals for a potentially special future.

Sure, Goldy can help the Cardinals accomplish their goals in 2019. But by securing him as their first baseman through 2024 — and at a reasonable cost — the Cardinals are poised for sustained success. But only if they’re adept, and aggressive at building their team around him.

Goldschmidt will make $14.5 million this season in the final year of the last contract he signed with Arizona. The five-year extension for $130 million begins in 2020, and the Cardinals will pay Goldy an average of just more than $24 million over the next six seasons.

That affordable deal does not crush or squeeze the payroll. The Cardinals are in no danger of entering luxury-tax hell. Goldy’s annual compensation leaves plenty of space for safe payroll maneuvering.
That applies to the summer of 2019. The current St. Louis payroll sits at $159.4 million, according to Spotrac. That projected number can easily accommodate additional salaries should the Cardinals decide to get busy and strengthen troublesome roster spots via trade.

Beyond that, the Cardinals are looking at a phase of enviable cost certainty. Goldschmidt helped; he didn’t insist on breaking the bank.

Let’s walk through this, shall we?

(Note: The salary data for the basic payroll information came from Spotrac.)

Starting pitching

The Cardinals’ five-man rotation will cost $29.2 million this season. That’s truly economical, representing about 18.7 percent of the total team payroll for 2019. In the National League, 11 teams have a higher percentage of payroll dollars tied up in their starting pitching than St. Louis this season.

The Cubs are spending more on starting pitching than any team in the majors: $100.345 million, or 48 percent of their payroll.

Wait, there’s more: Spotrac included Carlos Martinez in the Cards’ rotation, and his salary for 2019 is $11.7 million. But suppose Martinez — when healthy — pitches out of the bullpen?

If Martinez isn’t included, the five-man rotation of Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright would cost $18.2 million.

For perspective, digest this: The Cubs are paying three starters — individually — $20 million or more this season (Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels).

Overall, Spotrac projects the Cardinals to allocate $56 million on pitching this season for a workable 35 percent of the payroll. And even if Martinez ends up starting, the Cardinals will have a cost-efficient rotation. They’ll be pouring less money into their rotation than multiple hopeless teams, including the Kansas City Royals.

This could be interpreted another way: The Cardinals could have pumped more cash into their 2019 rotation. And perhaps they will, if an urgent need arises during the season.

The rotation may cost even less in 2020; Wacha and Wainwright can become free agents after this season. (Mikolas, however, is set to make $17 million a year through 2023 when his new contract goes online next season.)

There are no onerous contracts here.

What the Cardinals have, for the most part, are young starters lined up who won’t be eligible for free agency for several years.

John Gant can head to free agency in 2023. Jack Flaherty and prime reliever Jordan Hicks won’t become free agents until 2024. Dakota Hudson, Austin Gomber and Daniel Ponce de Leon are eligible for free agency in 2025.
If Carlos Martinez fades, the Cardinals can get out of his contract after the 2021 season. (More on that later.)

And this trend will likely continue, as the Cardinals have other young starters in development. And with so much pitching, there won’t be enough big-league jobs for all of the arms. Not a problem. Teams covet young pitching in trades, and the Cardinals will have assets to peddle.

The low cost of their starting pitching obviously gives this team flexibility to funnel resources into other parts of the team. Or, for that matter, to acquire or sign an expensive veteran starting pitcher to join the young arms. (Think of Houston’s late-season trade for Justin Verlander in 2017.)

Few long-term obligations

Let’s go through this, year by year.


After the 2019 season

• Eligible for free agency: Left fielder Marcell Ozuna, starting pitchers Wacha and Wainwright and backup catcher Matt Wieters.
• Options: The Cardinals can pay third baseman Matt Carpenter $18.5 million in 2020 or decline and pay a $2 million buyout. Infielder Jedd Gyorko has a $13 million salary for 2020 that can be terminated with a $1 million buyout.
• Guaranteed payroll commitments for 2020: an estimated $132 million, including the lofty salaries for Goldschmidt and Mikolas.

After the 2020 season

• Eligible for free agency: Catcher Yadier Molina and lefty reliever Brett Cecil.
• Options: Second baseman Kolten Wong is due $12.5 million in 2021 unless the Cardinals pay a $1 million buyout. The Cards have a $12.5 million option on lefty reliever Andrew Miller. The option automatically kicks in if Miller pitches 110 combined innings over the 2019 and ‘20 seasons. If the option doesn’t vest, the Cardinals can buy out Miller for $2.5 million.
• Guaranteed payroll commitments for 2021: approximately $79 million.

After the 2021 season

• Eligible for free agency: Outfielder Dexter Fowler and righty reliever Dominic Leone.
• Options: The Cardinals have a $17 million option on Carlos Martinez for 2022, then another option ($18 million) for 2023. But it would be easy for the team to walk away from both seasons by paying an affordable ($500,000) buyout after the 2021 season.
• Guaranteed payroll commitments for 2022: an estimated $49.6 million.

After the 2022 season

• Free agents: Pitchers Alex Reyes and Gant.
• Options: If the Cardinals pick up the option on Carlos Martinez for 2022, they can decline the $18 million option for 2023 at no cost (no buyout necessary).
• Guaranteed payroll commitments for 2023: about $52 million.

Rather than go deeper into this, I’ll summarize a couple of other situations in the distant future.

Center fielder Harrison Bader can become a free agent after the 2023 season.

Off in the horizon is shortstop Paul DeJong, who is under contract through at least 2023 as part of a six-year, $26 million deal signed last year. DeJong averages an affordable $6.5 million over the final three seasons of that contract, and the Cardinals will have to make a call on his $12.5 million option for 2024 (buyout: $2 million). If the Cardinals stay with DeJong in ‘24, they’ll have a $15 million option on him for 2025 that can be terminated with a $1 million.

As you can see, the Cardinals have a rather large canvas to work with over the next several years. The only substantial contracts of any real length belong to Goldschmidt and Mikolas. And maybe DeJong if the Cardinals ride with him through 2025.

In future years, the collection of young pitching will keep the payroll in check. But the Cardinals are also looking at a parade of outfielders and third basemen making their way to Busch Stadium in due time.

According to the evaluations by MLB Pipeline at MLB.com, 13 of the Cardinals’ top 30 prospects are pitchers (including Reyes and Hudson).

Seven are outfielders. Three are third basemen. (The big name there is power-hitting third baseman Nolan Gorman, the team’s No. 2 prospect.) And catcher Andrew Knizner (No. 3) is widely viewed as Molina’s successor; that made it easy to include Carson Kelly in the Goldschmidt deal.

Goldschmidt noticed the abundance of young talent around him during spring training.

“I think (the talent level) just confirmed what I saw from the outside,” Goldschmidt told Jen Langosch of MLB.com. “I remember last year (watching) the Cardinals (and noticing), there was a little bit of a turnover from where it went from being a little older team to a lot of really young guys.

“This team has the opportunity to be good for the next five or six years, because all these guys have only been in the big leagues for one year or two years. They’re guys who are still under contract for a couple years. The organization has potentially set itself up to be successful.”

And the Cardinals’ new first baseman is a big part of that. Since Albert Pujols last manned first base for the Cardinals — in Game 7 of the 2011 World Series — the team has started 20 different players at first base. Only two started 100 or more games at first base in a season: Matt Adams in 2014 and Carpenter in 2017.

The first-base carousel is shutting down. Except for the occasional off-day, Goldy can be counted on to handle first base for the next six seasons.

In his seven full seasons for Arizona, he started 150 or more games five times, and averaged 145 starts per year.

Now that they’ve finally ended the chaos at first base, the Cardinals can shift their focus to other positions in the effort to “Win Now.”

And “Win For A Long Time.”

Goldschmidt’s contract — and his presence — can make a real difference. But only if the front office can take advantage of the Goldschmidt years, the young pitching and the payroll flexibility that opens a myriad of possibilities.

I'm going to predict 90 wins. I can't wait until next week; my 9th opening day in the last 11 years (living outside of Missouri in all but three of them).

:hmmm:

Dude.

When one of the 3 worst deals in baseball history is the bar you're trying to clear, I wouldn't get too terribly excited if you manage it.

When you add in the cost of inflation since Pujols signed his deal and the contracts we have seen this offseason there is no way to reasonably argue Goldy isn't a bargain.

and if needed, Goldy can move to DH when the new CBA starts in 2022.

figured it was BS. Thanks for the info.

Bernie is right. The opportunity is there to have a window to compete for a title again. Executing it will be crucial. Mo hasn't exactly covered himself in glory lately.

After visiting other fan sites and seeing what the are bitching about, I'm more hopeful for this year and the future.

He isn't.

But his deal is fair. The cardinals will get what they paid for, give or take a bit.

If you expect the Matt Holliday Cardinal arc, you probably won't be too disappointed.

Estimation of Gold future value:

Jay Jaffe: 155m
Cardinals GM: 130m
Zymborski’s ZiPS: 119m


So his contract seems normal.


(https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cardinal...tension-fever/

Matt Holliday was who I was thinking, minus the frying pan hands on defense.

He should produce regular season numbers.

I actually loved the Goldy trade and extension. One thing that cannot be stated enough but hard to put into metrics is leadership. He will provide that and build a better culture. Gone are the days of Heyward and Matheny. I really wish we would've signed Harper to that exact contract and there are years to prove me wrong. That could've been a huge statement to our division for years to come.

Even Carp over there wasn't bad, below average. But, acceptable when he returned to his old offensive self after the early season slump. I'm sure we will now have a +DRS at 1B.
Players need to know where they stand. Not be lied to by the manager. If I'm a player, even if you were not friends with Fowler, you have to think when am I next? You see "his guys" playing over obviously more talented players, that has to be demotivating. I think thats worth 2 wins, at least.
Agreed. Was very disappointed they didn't make Harper say no.

1. Matt Carpenter (L) - 3B
2. Paul Goldschmidt (R) - 1B
3. Paul DeJong (R) - SS
4. Marcell Ozuna (R) - LF
5. Yadier Molina (R) - C
6. Dexter Fowler (S) - RF
7. Kolten Wong (L) - 2B
8. Harrison Bader (R) - CF
9. Miles Mikolas (R) - P

RHP Miles Mikolas


Brewers (0-0)

1. Lorenzo Cain (R) - CF
2. Christian Yelich (L) - RF
3. Ryan Braun (R) - LF
4. Travis Shaw (L) - 3B
5. Jesus Aguilar (R) - 1B
6. Mike Moustakas (L) - 2B
7. Yasmani Grandal (S) - C
8. Orlando Arcia (R) - SS
9. Jhoulys Chacin (R) - P

RHP Jhoulys Chacin

First lineup of the season! Let the bitching begin!

If Mikolas hits Braun square in the face with a 95mph fastball today he might become my favorite Cardinal ever.


https://binged.it/2FAxe3X