Me too. Closed Sept 2019.
The homes that were available:
1: had too many problems and the asking price plus repairs didn't make sense.
2: had too many problems, exhausted roofs, old HVAC, old windows and doors, etc. But Iif there was fresh paint people appeared to overlook all the problems and pay asking price.
3: priced accordingly and sold for more than asking price by noon.

After my realtor drug me to 40 houses sifting through junk to make my dreams come true, I finally had to go all in plus to snag a house that would work ok but didn't check my main needs. Happy to have it now, but it was a compromise

I challenged that a year ago. Saying I had done no improvements to my new house their valuation went up 20% They will tax us out of our houses someday

They're working on it here as well, my valuation went up $70k this year, a 30% increase. I'm fighting it, but with the way the market is going...it might not be that far off from reality.

I was a Realtor for over a decade and I would never recommend this. Pretty bad financial decision.

The housing market is on a huge bubble. Rent for a year and then buy when prices go down.

I'm thinking the same thing...it can't maintain this pace. I love the place we're in now but damn, we could make a killing off of selling now...

People always contend there's a "Housing Bubble" and that prices will eventually "Come Down". But when has that ever happened in large markets before?

We bought our home 17 years ago and all I heard was "Wow! That's a lot of money! I'm going to wait until prices come down because these prices can't last!!".

17 years later, my home is worth three times the purchase amount and no, it has never gone down in value.

The market is going crazy everywhere, from South Carolina to the panhandle of Florida to the entire West Coast. If it goes down in one market, it'll go down in every market and I just don't think that's going to happen.

Welcome to low interest rates and a housing shortage.

Vegas maybe after the housing bubble burst in the early to mid 2000s? I do agree that almost always houses go up in value. The biggest jumps I have been seeing are in the price range the average American can afford. Million dollar homes appreciate, just not as fast as the market of available buyers is so much smaller. Middle class priced homes are skyrocketing as people try to get in while interest rates are so low.

How are you fighting it, are you getting an appraisal done to your property?

That’s a big part, definitely. Also, the Phoenix housing market has been a prime spot for investor-buyers from Canada and other places for years, and we’re a destination market for Californians who sell big then move out of state. In both cases they are mainly cash buyers.

This. It might dip a little but it will never go all the way back. A relatively small investment in a piece of property in San Jose 20 years ago has turned into something bordering on ridiculous.

I don't necessarily think prices are going to fall, but they have to level off at some point. This isn't Colorado or California...it's the goddamn midwest, not exactly somewhere people are clamoring to come live.

I can see why Phoenix would be a destination for people from California. Still close to there without the outrageous cost of living. What does fascinate me is with so many people leaving, who is overpaying for homes in California? Where are they coming from?

I told them, in no uncertain terms, that there's no goddamn way in hell my home appreciated that much in one year. And it didn't.

Well good luck with that, in many cases I’ve heard you need an appraisal paid by you to get them to budge. I don’t know what they cost these days.

Hoping a bubble bursts might be too much, but I've bid on 2 houses recently - 25% over asking - and lost because someone else did the same while waiving inspection and appraisal. Is it really too much to ask to not have to blindly throw a ton of cash at someone to get a house? Apparently not because in both cases there were over 10 offers within 24 hours.

The bubble won't burst, but I do think once interest rates rise again there will be a slow down. The incentive is to buy now while rates are very low. People waiving that stuff is ridiculous and is a bad move, but also shows the desperation in trying to get a home no matter the cost.

Doghouses are even selling for $250,000 in Cali.

A lot of the homes are being purchased by investors because the interest rates are so ridiculously low right now.

Yeah but that's bound to happen when you're pricing out millions of people from affordable homes.

Yeah, for sure. We have 17 new hotels going up down the street from us along with the new Netflix/Avengers tower, which is 22 stories tall, so I'm expecting our value to skyrocket in the next 3-5 years.

But when everything else around us is rising simultaneously, it doesn't really do us much good, unless we want to move from the area, which really isn't a consideration.

The big question is this: Will interest rates rise again?

I tend to think the answer to that question is no.

How are people waiving appraisals unless they are cash buyers?

FHA and VA buyers have mandatory inspections.

This is the kind of stuff that causes the housing market to crash. There has to be a check and balance on properties and loans. I guess people have forgotten the Obama years. The market was depressed by foreclosures and loans being very difficult to get.

We bought at last house in 2001. Houses were moving fast. when the market "crashed" in 2007-8, we still could have sold our house for more than what we bought it. Sure, not as much of a profit, but still with equity.

Rode it out, refinanced. Waited and sold at a good time when our development started. Don't think you ever really lose on a house unless the areas around you go to hell for some reason.

They can't really go down, so it seems like at some point they'll go up. But I'll be happy if they don't.

Living in an expensive market, one of my concerns has been the impact of changes to mortgage interest deductions: https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/mort...est-deduction/ It seems like this would hurt home values at the higher end of the spectrum in the long run. But I'm not seeing it right now.

Holy crap at all of that.
You could have bought the Brady Bunch House.

It is called Foreclosure. There will be a Lot of them in the coming years when all the free money dries up and hyperinflation fully kicks in.

When I bought my house 25 years ago, I stood on the front porch and noticed a sign up on the corner. "What does it mean that we're in a historic district?" I asked my Realtor.

It was sheer luck, but it's awesome. There's notable redevelopment to our west and our southeast, but nothing can change in our neighborhood. So we get the benefits of development in terms of services and property values, and we have no risk of someone wanting to plunk a high-rise down on our block. Plus, the development is eliminating single-family homes in favor of multi-family, which decreases the supply of houses like mine.

This is the rub. You only come out ahead if you leave the market or if what you’re selling isn’t your primary residence. Thus the investors and flippers.

Inspections. Not appraisals.

Negative interest rates are a real thing. There is talk that we very well may be headed into that situation. When that situation has raised in the past banks generally charge a person a percentage rate, beyond their monthly account rate if they have one, for the amount of money that a person has in their account.

He stated Both in his post. ;)

had a voice mail saying they were looking to buy my house. It was just a spam call. Never gave any specifics.

People are dropping $1+ million dollars cash all over Los Angeles, without inspections and without appraisals because the interest rates are so cheap that investors can put a couple hundred thousand into them and rent them out for $6k-8k per month all day long.

Anyone there doing teardowns?

I think that interest rates will "rise" at some point but it won't be to levels that we saw around the year 2000, in which they're 6%-9%.

I'd be surprised if they even reach 4% before the end of the decade because it would leave millions homeless and without the ability to own a home.

All over, although it's generally in the pricier areas like Beverly Hills or the Birds in which enormously wealthy people buy two to three lots and build one house in its place.

That said, it's also happening quite a bit down in Inglewood near the new Rams stadium and that area, which has become Silicon Beach. 20-30 years ago, you could buy a house down there for next to nothing and now it's going for $1,000 a square foot or more.

But the main thing is people buying older homes built in the 50's-80's, tearing them down to stud and building them back up. In most cases, the plumbing and electrical is no where near code so you're better off tearing out the old plaster and starting from scratch, although those fixer uppers are generally $800k-$1 million.

I figure that any business calling to buy your home wants to give you a below-market offer so they can flip it for the market value. No way would I sell to a business.

That said, I know someone who (long ago) got a letter from an individual that said, "We want to buy a house in your neighborhood. Are you considering selling?" It turned out that my acquaintances had been pondering a move and hadn't told anyone. They ended up selling the house and moving.

Nah, they'll go to Short Sales long before foreclosures, especially if you're talking $750k and above.

I bought my first house in 2009. It was one of the better houses in a white trash neighborhood. Lived in it for 4-5 years then rented it out for a couple of years. Ended up selling it for almost exactly what I paid for it. But even then when you factor in what I would have spent renting for 4 years I came out ahead.

Appraisals are ordered by the financing company but pre-Zillow/Trulia/Redifin, I paid for a few appraisals out of pocket for a few properties I considering purchasing.

As for inspections, they aren't the end all, either. We hired a supposedly "great" firm to do the inspection on our home but the guy missed all kinds of stuff, including a super leaky flat roof, a balcony that leaked into our laundry room and all kinds of electrical that wasn't even close to code.

When I asked our realtor about this crap six months after purchase, he said that there's nothing the inspector could have done because they're not allowed to perform any leak detection or electrical inspections.

Fortunately, we found all of the issues early on because we basically tore it down to stud, which is probably the same plan for those that are purchasing without inspections as well.

Plus, the mortgage interest write-off is worth it on its own.

When we bought ours 20 years ago, the back of our lot was adjoined to a golf course on the right and federally protected wetlands on the left. I don't play or give a shit about golf, but it was a much better view than the backs of other homes. In fact, we paid an extra $5,000 for it in the purchase price.

Unfortunately, the golf course was poorly run and had mob ties. One day they rather foolishly saw fit to have a hooker/stripper event, which involved scantily to non-clad women wandering the course (I was at work that day and missed it). But several residents complained, and from that point on the city was up their asses like a rocket. Not long afterward the liquor license for the clubhouse was pulled, and from that point on the course deteriorated and eventually went under. I hoped that someone else would take over, but instead it was sold to developers, and now there are houses there. The only good part is the area closest to us is too low and marshy for buildings, so there aren't houses right on top of us; but still, the nice view is history and instead I see the backs of homes a couple of hundred yards distant. And of course there will be no reimbursement coming for the loss of our view from our original builders, an LLC which ceased to exist as soon as our neighborhood was completed. :grr:

Zillow has never had my current (soon to be former) house priced correctly and has fluctuated like crazy in the time Ive been in it. But since January of 2020 when it was shown at its lowest, its gone up 45% in valuation according to them. Thats about where it was actually appraised for 6 years ago though.

The house I bought at auction in August, was shown on zillow for 50% more than what I paid, but appraised at only 10% more. Zillow shows that it went way down in value when I bought it but climbed back up past its peak in the last 3 months. Im a few months away from getting it appraised again for a new loan for more improvements.

Our home was just appraised two years ago when we purchased it. They know what we paid for it, they know what the condition was because the pictures were available online for over a year. They have no goddamn excuses. But I certainly don't have my hopes up too much with values skyrocketing the way they are.

That makes a lot of sense then.

Agreed. I believe these ridiculously low rates can't last forever, but at the same time high rates would be even more devastating and lead to economic bloodshed as well. 4% seems like a good balance.

I like watching those shows on HGTV where people are shopping from homes in different cities. There'll sometimes be comments made like, "this is open space so there'll never be houses there".

I don't trust those statements. Things change all the time. Unless it's a national park, and maybe even then, it just takes a vote of a random council or committee to change things.

On that same note, it just takes a vote to eliminate our historic district around our house. I hope it'll be around for my lifetime at a minimum, but it wouldn't shock me if some powerful developer eventually screws the district over.

Sorry, I thought you were replying to my post.

Man I hope you are wrong on that. No good can come from that economically. The last time we had a huge rash of foreclosures the market tanked.

On another note why would there be a rash of foreclosures when people are getting into loans at low rates? The last crash if I remember correctly had people financing at much higher rates. It would lead me to believe that with people locking in low rates they would be more able to afford their loan long-term.

We were first time homeowners, and certainly learned some lessons from the weasels we bought from. The most important is that sellers are only interested in selling. A few things they told us about the area that were beyond their control ended up being pie in the sky. We're still here, and I'm generally happy with the house and location, but if the time ever does come to relocate I'll damned sure know what questions to ask and what answers to question.

Gonna need some deets here.

I recently caught some sellers who turned out to be pretty untrustworthy IMO.

"We cleaned the sewer line. It looks good!"

Plumber: "Yeah this is going to cost you $6k to fix." LMAO

We've always tossed around the idea of keeping a condo in Chicago after we relocate our primary residence within the next 3-5 years. With money cheap and a surplus in downtown, its very tempting now. Currently there's 3bd/2ba for under 400 and 2bd/2ba in the 200-300s happening now for downtown properties.

They go quickly but it seems like a limited opportunity to get in as the 2020 dust is still settling.

There is an area in Plymouth, MN that is a golf course. Wont be for much longer. It has been sold to a developer. People are trying to stop it but I dont think they will have any luck.
I can think of three golf courses that are now gone. A friend is living on the 4th hole of one he used to golf. The one I work at still going strong. I am sure the city gets approached about it ALL THE TIME.

But our current mayor is a golfer and lives next to it. If it survives another 20 years it will be amazing.

This may be silly, but if you're thinking of buying in an area that's anywhere close to commercial area or busy street, you might consider a quick call to the county planning office to just ask if there are any long-term changes that might happen. They're generally friendly people who don't mind talking to the public, and you can find out if there's an application for a sex offender home or a big apartment complex or a road widening. They won't know everything but they often know if something big is happening.

It's probably not necessary if you're looking at a place that's buried in the middle of a subdivision surrounded by similar homes, but as noted earlier if you're overlooking a golf course or an open space, it doesn't hurt to ask if it's going to be gone in a year.

I had a relative who bought a restaurant once, and he didn't do this. A few months after he made the purchase, a major road widening project started and made it a huge hassle to get to his restaurant. It was a disaster. I figure the seller knew about it, which was why he sold.

It is not just about rates with the scenarios people are posting about. Paying 5 to 20% more than an already inflated ask price also includes Taxes and Insurance at that higher price. That is a lot of money over a 15-30 year note.

As far as inspections- any Realtor worth his credentials would not let a buyer do this, even in new construction. Inspectors get paid for a reason. The inspection report also gives leverage to the buyer to get the most serious things credited or fixed before closing.

Anyone who thinks this new Real Estate model is sustainable must have forgotten the last crash.

This is a good example of where the country is headed. Super rich elite at the very top gobbling up every asset, 2nd tier wealthy millionaires, a shrinking middle class, and an enormous population of poor.

Real Estate is like any ecosystem- it takes all levels to stay healthy.

The poor and lower middle class have to have a way to get out of the rentals and move into starter-type homes with other first-time buyers. First-time buyer programs are amazing and essential. Lower cost FHA and VA loans as well.

These previous 1st timers need to build equity to move to the nicer neighborhoods- which then let retired folks cash out or continue to move up to gated communities.

Right now the fixer-upper/starter homes are getting bought by major investment firms and turned into expensive rentals. This will eventually put negative pressure all the way up the ladder.


The last crash happened mostly because all the First-time buyer money dried up and banks started demanding vast amounts down. It sent ripples throughout the markets. Along with high unemployment, the stock market crash wiping out retirement funds, and ridiculous hyperinflation- it was the perfect storm.

There's more to it than that, but this is what was the root cause:

https://www.wealthsimple.com/en-us/l...8-market-crash

The first crash happened because homebuyers and banks were drawing up loans neither of them could afford.

I used to consult for a very large lender. They took billions in losses because they decided it was a good idea to lend mortgages to people that had zero means to pay them off.