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-   -   If the Chiefs took WR Christian Watson at 30… (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=342918)

htismaqe 03-31-2022 11:38 AM

What am I missing? Javon Walker was a pretty decent NFL WR until he got hurt. Even after his injury, he had a decent season in Denver before injuries finally got the best of him.

I guess I'm not seeing why the Walker comparison is so damning to Watson.

Chris Meck 03-31-2022 11:41 AM

I mean, DJ is adamant that Watson is a 6'4" pile of dogshit, but he'd take him at 62. I think he's a possible great player that I'd take a swing on at 50.

We're 12 spots apart on this huge piece of shit that's comparable to McCluster in DJ's eyes, but that he'd still draft at 62.

this is ridiculous.

The Franchise 03-31-2022 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 16226025)
I mean, DJ is adamant that Watson is a 6'4" pile of dogshit, but he'd take him at 62. I think he's a possible great player that I'd take a swing on at 50.

We're 12 spots apart on this huge piece of shit that's comparable to McCluster in DJ's eyes, but that he'd still draft at 62.

this is ridiculous.

I know DJ is arguing against taking him at 50 but I think the anger comes from people wanting him at 29.

htismaqe 03-31-2022 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise (Post 16226028)
I know DJ is arguing against taking him at 50 but I think the anger comes from people wanting him at 29.

Well I think people need to be prepared for it. The guy is a workout warrior and Veach loves him some measurables.

We're not going to get everything we want. That never happens.

The Franchise 03-31-2022 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 16226030)
Well I think people need to be prepared for it. The guy is a workout warrior and Veach loves him some measurables.

We're not going to get everything we want. That never happens.

Have you met DJ? LMAO

staylor26 03-31-2022 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 16226030)
Well I think people need to be prepared for it. The guy is a workout warrior and Veach loves him some measurables.

We're not going to get everything we want. That never happens.

Exactly.

When people like Daniel Jeremiah and Matt Miller are mocking him to the Chiefs in the 1st, it’s a legitimate possibility.

Chris Meck 03-31-2022 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise (Post 16226028)
I know DJ is arguing against taking him at 50 but I think the anger comes from people wanting him at 29.

I think any anger about any of it is irrational.

It's all speculation, and none of us are qualified NFL scouts, or GM's, we're all just armchair warriors (maybe sitting in our underwear to stick with DJ's mantra) that are more than casual fans, but definitely not qualified to pick NFL players in the draft.

I don't think I'd take Watson in the first, because I think I could get Pierce in the second for sure, and I think he's a higher floor kid although perhaps not as potentially high a ceiling. But he's close, and he's the same skillset more or less.

but if Veach does, I won't complain until I see the product on the field. But I think DJ might blow a gasket and kill a puppy or something.

DJ's left nut 03-31-2022 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 16226003)
If the guy's a piece of shit underwear warrior and a huge mistake at 30, and a laughable reach at 50, but you might take him at 60? And you'd take a space eating DT at 30 instead?

I mean, come on man.

Ah - so you mean YOUR hyperbole.

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 16226022)
What am I missing? Javon Walker was a pretty decent NFL WR until he got hurt. Even after his injury, he had a decent season in Denver before injuries finally got the best of him.

I guess I'm not seeing why the Walker comparison is so damning to Watson.

It isn't. I'm saying Walker is a more fair comp for his upside than someone like Randy freakin' Moss where we have guys saying he has 'generational talent' upside.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 16226025)
I mean, DJ is adamant that Watson is a 6'4" pile of dogshit, but he'd take him at 62. I think he's a possible great player that I'd take a swing on at 50.

We're 12 spots apart on this huge piece of shit that's comparable to McCluster in DJ's eyes, but that he'd still draft at 62.

this is ridiculous.

Show your work, sport.

And again - the hyperbole here is just ALL you. I didn't compare him to McCluster the player. At all. I compared 'well since we have 2 picks in the first I'd take him' as a process to 'well this is the 'found' second we got for Tony G so we can gamble' as a similar thought process that yields bad outcomes.

Moreover, I didn't say I'd draft him at 62, only that I'd consider him. Meanwhile you'd consider him at 30. That's a full round's difference and yes, that's absolutely significant.

Again - one of us is very much guilty of overplaying his hand - sure.

It just isn't me.

DJ's left nut 03-31-2022 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise (Post 16226033)
Have you met DJ? LMAO

Yeah, I'm not one to hold my fire.

But I'm also not one to hit and run.

If I don't like a guy, I'll tell you why. And hell, if I come around on a guy as the process goes along, I'll gladly admit to that as well. I've come around on the DTs at the back of the first in a big way throughout this process. I've stated as such (and why) several times.

But this idea that I have some irrational hatred of Watson because of 'reasons' is silly. I've gone pretty far down the rabbit hole there.

Small school guys with elite measurables who are actual dominant football players WILL dominate at that level because their coaches feed them the football. This guys coaches did not do that. There's a reason for that and as has already been conceded - no, we don't know more than the Chiefs do about these guys. But we also don't know more about them than their college coaches. And frankly, the CHIEFS don't know more about them than their college coaches.

And that cuts both ways. Despite knowing more about this stuff than we do, the Chiefs occasionally just get it flat-ass wrong. And perhaps Watson's coaching staff got it wrong with him as well.

Do I want to use a top 50 pick on that gamble? Nope. Do not.

htismaqe 03-31-2022 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 16226107)
It isn't. I'm saying Walker is a more fair comp for his upside than someone like Randy freakin' Moss where we have guys saying he has 'generational talent' upside.

That makes sense.

I'm just saying, Walker had 3500 yards and 30 TD's in his first 4 full years in the league, including a rookie season where he only had 1 TD and started only 2 games.

Years 2-5, he missed basically one entire season to injury but otherwise compiled 3000 yards and 29 TD's in 3 seasons.

If ANYBODY in the draft can give us that, I'm taking them.

DJ's left nut 03-31-2022 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 16226125)
That makes sense.

I'm just saying, Walker had 3500 yards and FORTY TD's in his first 4 full years in the league, including a rookie season where he only had 1 TD and started only 2 games.

Years 2-5, he missed basically one entire season to injury but otherwise compiled 3000 yards and 39 TD's in 3 seasons.

Yeah - he was a great player. With similar measurables to Watson who produced at a similar clip with a much higher level of competition.

But he's on the skinny end of Watson's bell curve of potential outcomes, IMO. That's not the middle 50% for him at all. I would put it maybe at the top 15% of possible outcomes. I wouldn't even put this 'generational talent' stuff as 1% likely.

duncan_idaho 03-31-2022 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 16226135)
Yeah - he was a great player. With similar measurables to Watson who produced at a similar clip with a much higher level of competition.

But he's on the skinny end of Watson's bell curve of potential outcomes, IMO. That's not the middle 50% for him at all. I would put it maybe at the top 15% of possible outcomes. I wouldn't even put this 'generational talent' stuff as 1% likely.

Here's the thing, though:

You keep knocking Watson's production, and I get it. But the context of the situation is thus:

Over the past 10 seasons:


NDSU has run the ball 6,499 times for 39,968 yards. They have thrown the ball 3,068 times for 25,629 yards.

That's a 68 percent run rate. They average almost 6 yards a pop over that span, so you see why they stick with it.

Looking back, starting in 2014, you start seeing a slight decrease in the number of times they throw the ball. From 36% in 2012-13 to 27% this past year. They WERE a run-heavy scheme to start and have skewed even more strongly in that direction.

This isn't about Watson not dominating or the coaches not trusting him. It's about an absolute powerhouse with a clear, long-standing, and absolutely successful system sticking with that system regardless of personnel.

If the Bison had thrown the ball at the same rate in 2021 as they did at the start of this period (36%) and succeeded at the same rate, you'd roughly expect Watson's numbers to be in the 1200 yard, 11-12 TD range.

And shoot, running the same exercise and using, say, the run-pass balance of Ohio State against it... that's 54 percent passes. You're looking at 1600 yards and 14 TDs.

I think Watson's production is a red herring when it comes to evaluating him. Lot of words for me to get to that thesis, but there it is.

DJ's left nut 03-31-2022 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 16226281)
Here's the thing, though:

You keep knocking Watson's production, and I get it. But the context of the situation is thus:

Over the past 10 seasons:

NDSU has run the ball 6,499 times for 39,968 yards. They have thrown the ball 3,068 times for 25,629 yards.

That's a 68 percent run rate. They average almost 6 yards a pop over that span, so you see why they stick with it.

Looking back, starting in 2014, you start seeing a slight decrease in the number of times they throw the ball. From 36% in 2012-13 to 27% this past year. They WERE a run-heavy scheme to start and have skewed even more strongly in that direction.

This isn't about Watson not dominating or the coaches not trusting him. It's about an absolute powerhouse with a clear, long-standing, and absolutely successful system sticking with that system regardless of personnel.

If the Bison had thrown the ball at the same rate in 2021 as they did at the start of this period (36%) and succeeded at the same rate, you'd roughly expect Watson's numbers to be in the 1200 yard, 11-12 TD range.

And shoot, running the same exercise and using, say, the run-pass balance of Ohio State against it... that's 54 percent passes. You're looking at 1600 yards and 14 TDs.

I think Watson's production is a red herring when it comes to evaluating him. Lot of words for me to get to that thesis, but there it is.

And Georgia Tech ran the triple option.

But when they had Calvin Johnson, they got him the ball. Damaryius Thomas went for 1,200 a few years later.

If you have a great player, you use him, regardless of what your 'system' is. NDSU just flat didn't. And that's at a level of competition where Megatron is still dominant, but not the 'first round generational talent playing against dudes that can barely put their own pads on' discrepancy.

If this guy were that good he'd be a cheat code. And frankly why are we just NOW hearing about him as a first day pick? Guy had a 1st round quarterback he played with for 2 seasons. If nothing else when teams/analysis are watching those tapes they'd see Watson. Yet it wasn't until he blew up at the combine that anyone was talking about him this high.

If you have Randy Moss playing against FCS opponents down there, SOMEBODY is gonna notice. We're not talking about Jerry Rice at Mississippi Valley in the early 80s - there are eyes everywhere.

And for all the talk of his perfect RAS score - guy didn't even run a 3-cone or short shuttle and that's where you worry about his length. Moreover, it's so arbitrary. Sure, he jumped out of the gym and ran really fast - so did Chris Conley but when they say "one of 3 guys to ever score that high with his height" - that's because they put the cutoff one inch taller than Conley at 6'3". Conley actually had longer arms. He had a better broad jump, much better vertical.

Watson isn't a unicorn. He's very athletic but there are guys like him almost every year at 6'2". And since he didn't DO the tests that might expose the issues associated with him being 6'4", I'm pretty hard pressed to just hand-waive them.

Because again, if we're putting all this stock into the stopwatch, why are we just ignoring the fact that he elected not to run those drills? There's absolutely a reason for that.

And again - I'm not saying he has NO ability. I'm saying he'd be a solid 3rd round pick and a possible pick in the late 2nd. For an FCS receiver that's just damn near unheard of.

duncan_idaho 03-31-2022 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 16226330)
And Georgia Tech ran the triple option.

But when they had Calvin Johnson, they got him the ball. Damaryius Thomas went for 1,200 a few years later.

If you have a great player, you use him, regardless of what your 'system' is. NDSU just flat didn't. And that's at a level of competition where Megatron is still dominant, but not the 'first round generational talent playing against dudes that can barely put their own pads on' discrepancy.

If this guy were that good he'd be a cheat code. And frankly why are we just NOW hearing about him as a first day pick? Guy had a 1st round quarterback he played with for 2 seasons. If nothing else when teams/analysis are watching those tapes they'd see Watson. Yet it wasn't until he blew up at the combine that anyone was talking about him this high.

If you have Randy Moss playing against FCS opponents down there, SOMEBODY is gonna notice. We're not talking about Jerry Rice at Mississippi Valley in the early 80s - there are eyes everywhere.

And for all the talk of his perfect RAS score - guy didn't even run a 3-cone or short shuttle and that's where you worry about his length. Moreover, it's so arbitrary. Sure, he jumped out of the gym and ran really fast - so did Chris Conley but when they say "one of 3 guys to ever score that high with his height" - that's because they put the cutoff one inch taller than Conley at 6'3". Conley actually had longer arms. He had a better broad jump, much better vertical.

Watson isn't a unicorn. He's very athletic but there are guys like him almost every year at 6'2". And since he didn't DO the tests that might expose the issues associated with him being 6'4", I'm pretty hard pressed to just hand-waive them.

Because again, if we're putting all this stock into the stopwatch, why are we just ignoring the fact that he elected not to run those drills? There's absolutely a reason for that.

And again - I'm not saying he has NO ability. I'm saying he'd be a solid 3rd round pick and a possible pick in the late 2nd. For an FCS receiver that's just damn near unheard of.

A few things...

First, re: Calvin Johnson

1. I've seen a few others say this, too... but Georgia Tech didn't run the triple option when Calvin Johnson was there. Chan Gailey was his coach, and they ran a multiple set, with lot of shotgun and early spread offense concepts.

2. Watson was his team's leading receiver as a sophomore, junior, and senior, just like Megatron was in his 3 years at Georgia Tech. They both played 38 games in those 3 years. You know what the difference in their receiving stats are? 2 catches/game (4.5 in an offense that threw 30 times a game instead of 2.5 in an offense that threw 20 times a game) and 25 yards per game.

Neither one of those offenses morphed into feeding the pig, as it was. Gailey ran it more than he threw it every year he had the biggest unicorn in college sports history.

Switching to that topic...

You're familiar with how successful that NDSU coaching staff has been and what a powerhouse that program is, right? They've won what, 9 of the past 11 championships at that level or something like that?

Even with Trey Lance they didn't alter their run-pass ratio. They have a system and the system and program seem to trump individual talent. Kind of like Nebraska in the Devaney/Osborne days, I guess.

Let's not act like coaching staffs don't make mistakes or stubbornly stick to their system, especially at the college level. Ole Miss had DK Metcalf and AJ Brown at the same time and somehow didn't give the ball to one of them every down.

Regarding his combine stuff...

Watson did run the 3-cone and shuttle at his pro day and put up good numbers in those, as well (above-average shuttle at 4.19 and 3-cone was above average as well at 6.96).

Finally, regarding why we're just hearing about him...

Well, before he got to the senior bowl and combine and started getting individual notice, he was a big, fast dude on a team that has never thrown it even 1 out of 3 downs while he has been there. Hard to get notice that way beyond the FCS level.

Chris Meck 03-31-2022 05:51 PM

I think both of you have fair points.

kcbubb 03-31-2022 08:57 PM

I’m with Idaho. Watson is a rare talent and this draft is deep with productive wrs but it’s not deep with legit wr1 studs and that’s what Watson has the potential to be.

kccrow 04-01-2022 12:30 AM

A guy like Watson definitely presents a conundrum.

He has an athletic profile that absolutely screams at you "#1 WR," and I have little doubt about that. What you can't gauge is how well he's going to adapt to the NFL and how he will enhance his rudimentary route running. He's a definitive "boom or bust" prospect.

In the other corner, I look at a guy like Jalen Tolbert who doesn't have an elite athletic profile. He has a good profile, but not like Watson. What Tolbert does have is elite production and elite route-running skills (for college). His floor is incredibly higher, probably "productive #2 WR." When I do look at Tolbert's athletic profile though, I can't help but see a guy I really liked several years ago that turned out to be a draft steal and certified stud in Stefon Diggs.

So you can take a guy like Watson and hope he reaches his potential, which very well could be in the stratosphere of Justin Jefferson and Jamaar Chase, or he could easily bust. You could otherwise take a guy like Tolbert who looks to be at least a Marvin Jones caliber #2 that could be Stefon Diggs if he gets even better. When it comes to WRs, I've tried to evaluate more on that athletic profile and haven't had much luck with it in recent times. At this point, I'm taking Tolbert 100 out of 100 times early. I'll save my hopes for guys like Gray or Melton to bust out as a 4th/5th round pick.

O.city 04-01-2022 07:02 AM

Having a QB like Mahomes under center and Andy running the show, give me the definite #2 guy. I think that combined with what Tolbert brings to the table coudl easily be elevated to "#1" production.

MahomesMagic 04-01-2022 07:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kccrow (Post 16227008)
A guy like Watson definitely presents a conundrum.

He has an athletic profile that absolutely screams at you "#1 WR," and I have little doubt about that. What you can't gauge is how well he's going to adapt to the NFL and how he will enhance his rudimentary route running. He's a definitive "boom or bust" prospect.

In the other corner, I look at a guy like Jalen Tolbert who doesn't have an elite athletic profile. He has a good profile, but not like Watson. What Tolbert does have is elite production and elite route-running skills (for college). His floor is incredibly higher, probably "productive #2 WR." When I do look at Tolbert's athletic profile though, I can't help but see a guy I really liked several years ago that turned out to be a draft steal and certified stud in Stefon Diggs.

So you can take a guy like Watson and hope he reaches his potential, which very well could be in the stratosphere of Justin Jefferson and Jamaar Chase, or he could easily bust. You could otherwise take a guy like Tolbert who looks to be at least a Marvin Jones caliber #2 that could be Stefon Diggs if he gets even better. When it comes to WRs, I've tried to evaluate more on that athletic profile and haven't had much luck with it in recent times. At this point, I'm taking Tolbert 100 out of 100 times early. I'll save my hopes for guys like Gray or Melton to bust out as a 4th/5th round pick.

I don't assume a guy that isn't doing WR things is going to start in the NFL.

Watson is big and fast. But he doesn't do much else for me.

Like you, I prefer other guys not getting hype.

Give me Khalil Shakir. 6 feet, ran a 4.4 and is an animal on the field.

DJ's left nut 04-01-2022 07:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 16226476)
A few things...

First, re: Calvin Johnson

1. I've seen a few others say this, too... but Georgia Tech didn't run the triple option when Calvin Johnson was there. Chan Gailey was his coach, and they ran a multiple set, with lot of shotgun and early spread offense concepts.

2. Watson was his team's leading receiver as a sophomore, junior, and senior, just like Megatron was in his 3 years at Georgia Tech. They both played 38 games in those 3 years. You know what the difference in their receiving stats are? 2 catches/game (4.5 in an offense that threw 30 times a game instead of 2.5 in an offense that threw 20 times a game) and 25 yards per game.

Neither one of those offenses morphed into feeding the pig, as it was. Gailey ran it more than he threw it every year he had the biggest unicorn in college sports history.

Switching to that topic...

You're familiar with how successful that NDSU coaching staff has been and what a powerhouse that program is, right? They've won what, 9 of the past 11 championships at that level or something like that?

Even with Trey Lance they didn't alter their run-pass ratio. They have a system and the system and program seem to trump individual talent. Kind of like Nebraska in the Devaney/Osborne days, I guess.

Let's not act like coaching staffs don't make mistakes or stubbornly stick to their system, especially at the college level. Ole Miss had DK Metcalf and AJ Brown at the same time and somehow didn't give the ball to one of them every down.

Regarding his combine stuff...

Watson did run the 3-cone and shuttle at his pro day and put up good numbers in those, as well (above-average shuttle at 4.19 and 3-cone was above average as well at 6.96).

Finally, regarding why we're just hearing about him...

Well, before he got to the senior bowl and combine and started getting individual notice, he was a big, fast dude on a team that has never thrown it even 1 out of 3 downs while he has been there. Hard to get notice that way beyond the FCS level.

True story regarding the option. Even still, Georgia Tech only threw for 2,400 yards that season and Calvin was responsible for 1,200 of those yards and 15 scores.

While they weren't an option team, they were very much a run first team that found ways to get the ball to their superstar.

Regarding the pro day numbers - I just don't trust 'em. Never have. With even a 10th of a second grade inflation on that stuff he'd have forgettable figures there and just be another straight line guy for many.

Finally, as to getting noticed, I think you're absolutely right for a 2nd day pick. It's really hard for one of those guys to get noticed.

But if we're talking a 1st round talent, a guy who's athleticism is so unreal that we'll project it to NFL performance, performance against FCS schools be damned, I still think that WOULD stand out. That WOULD get noticed. Especially when he played for a program that had a guy that was getting scouts to come out.

If he's more of a 3rd round pick than a 1st round pick, then yeah - he could stay under the radar. But I have a hard time believing that this guy would be a 1st round pick and just explode onto the scene after flying so far below the radar for as long as he did.

Again - I don't want this to be another "YOU HATED CHRIS JONES!!" thing when I said he was a mid-2nd round player. No, I didn't say he was a 6'4" pile of shit. I even said for SOME teams using a pick around 50 would be a fine idea. This is for an FCS kid with nominal production at that level. I'm CLEARLY pricing a lot of these considerations into my calculus here.

I just don't think he'd be a good pick for us in the 2nd and I think he'd be an actively bad one in the 1st given our needs, the importance of us hitting on these picks and the bust potential that necessarily comes with some of the red flags I've discussed.

The Franchise 04-01-2022 07:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kccrow (Post 16227008)
A guy like Watson definitely presents a conundrum.

He has an athletic profile that absolutely screams at you "#1 WR," and I have little doubt about that. What you can't gauge is how well he's going to adapt to the NFL and how he will enhance his rudimentary route running. He's a definitive "boom or bust" prospect.

In the other corner, I look at a guy like Jalen Tolbert who doesn't have an elite athletic profile. He has a good profile, but not like Watson. What Tolbert does have is elite production and elite route-running skills (for college). His floor is incredibly higher, probably "productive #2 WR." When I do look at Tolbert's athletic profile though, I can't help but see a guy I really liked several years ago that turned out to be a draft steal and certified stud in Stefon Diggs.

So you can take a guy like Watson and hope he reaches his potential, which very well could be in the stratosphere of Justin Jefferson and Jamaar Chase, or he could easily bust. You could otherwise take a guy like Tolbert who looks to be at least a Marvin Jones caliber #2 that could be Stefon Diggs if he gets even better. When it comes to WRs, I've tried to evaluate more on that athletic profile and haven't had much luck with it in recent times. At this point, I'm taking Tolbert 100 out of 100 times early. I'll save my hopes for guys like Gray or Melton to bust out as a 4th/5th round pick.

Tolbert Gang!

DJ's left nut 04-01-2022 07:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kccrow (Post 16227008)
A guy like Watson definitely presents a conundrum.

He has an athletic profile that absolutely screams at you "#1 WR," and I have little doubt about that. What you can't gauge is how well he's going to adapt to the NFL and how he will enhance his rudimentary route running. He's a definitive "boom or bust" prospect.

In the other corner, I look at a guy like Jalen Tolbert who doesn't have an elite athletic profile. He has a good profile, but not like Watson. What Tolbert does have is elite production and elite route-running skills (for college). His floor is incredibly higher, probably "productive #2 WR." When I do look at Tolbert's athletic profile though, I can't help but see a guy I really liked several years ago that turned out to be a draft steal and certified stud in Stefon Diggs.

So you can take a guy like Watson and hope he reaches his potential, which very well could be in the stratosphere of Justin Jefferson and Jamaar Chase, or he could easily bust. You could otherwise take a guy like Tolbert who looks to be at least a Marvin Jones caliber #2 that could be Stefon Diggs if he gets even better. When it comes to WRs, I've tried to evaluate more on that athletic profile and haven't had much luck with it in recent times. At this point, I'm taking Tolbert 100 out of 100 times early. I'll save my hopes for guys like Gray or Melton to bust out as a 4th/5th round pick.

Yeah, Watson/Tolbert is usually the exact discussion I have with myself as well.

And then right there in between the two you have Alec Pierce who is a weird hybrid of the two. More athletic than Tolbert, more polished than Watson.

But I think THAT'S the tier these guys are all in. Late 2nd, early 3rd considerations. And at that point it's just a question of choosing what flavor of ice cream you're after there.

What I've taken exception to is the willingness to hand-waive the floor, move straight to the ceiling and say "well because Watson is so athletic his ceiling is higher and as such he's an obviously better prospect than those guys..."

I just don't think ceiling is the only thing that you should be considering here. There's a real possibility the guy goes Matt Jones on you and never does anything worthwhile in this league. And when taking that into consideration, he's more of a late 2nd into the 3rd round caliber pick for me who, for the Chiefs anyway, would be behind someone like Tolbert and Pierce.

I'm fine letting our generational QB take good players and make them great.

DJ's left nut 04-01-2022 07:27 AM

Think of Patrick Mahomes as similar to Coors Field.

There's a saying in baseball circles - "Coors Field doesn't turn bad hitters into good hitters. It turns good hitters into great ones..."

I think that's what an elite quarterback does. He can't turn Demarcus Robinson into Deandre Hopkins. You can't give him guys who just aren't NFL players and have him make them into 1,000 yard guys.

But if you give him 6-700 yard guys, he MIGHT be able to turn them into 1,100 yard guys.

I think the odds of Tolbert or Pierce being merely good NFL players are significantly higher than the odds of Watson being one. And so I'm willing to leave some ceiling on the table for the floor and then let my QB do the rest.

If I had someone like Jimmy Garappolo under center, someone who needs his WRs to carry his water for him, I'm more likely to focus on the ceiling of a player than his floor.

But again - for THIS team - that's just not how I'd operate.

The Franchise 04-01-2022 07:27 AM

I’m stuck figuring out if I want Pierce or Tolbert at this point.

DJ's left nut 04-01-2022 07:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise (Post 16227141)
Tolbert Gang!

<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/h5omKSm8s3Ez5z8Wvw" width="480" height="270" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/achievementhunter-h5omKSm8s3Ez5z8Wvw">via GIPHY</a></p>

DJ's left nut 04-01-2022 07:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise (Post 16227150)
I’m stuck figuring out if I want Pierce or Tolbert at this point.

https://y.yarn.co/72dfc28a-e839-428c...29f70_text.gif

I'd just let the guys in front of me choose blonde or brunette here...

I'm honestly pretty content just letting it sort itself out with this group of guys. I'd prefer use one of those late 3s on one of them but it's seeming less and less likely that they fall with the WR market going insane.

I think teams are going to really attack that position to try to get some cost control. Especially with the wealth of height/speed monsters we're seeing in this class.

The Franchise 04-01-2022 07:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 16227158)
https://y.yarn.co/72dfc28a-e839-428c...29f70_text.gif

I'd just let the guys in front of me choose blonde or brunette here...

I'm honestly pretty content just letting it sort itself out with this group of guys. I'd prefer use one of those late 3s on one of them but it's seeming less and less likely that they fall with the WR market going insane.

I think teams are going to really attack that position to try to get some cost control. Especially with the wealth of height/speed monsters we're seeing in this class.

With the way it’s going….you’re probably taking one of them at 62 if they’re there.

Ojabo
Jones
Williams
Tolbert

I’d be good with this first four picks.

DJ's left nut 04-01-2022 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise (Post 16227161)
With the way it’s going….you’re probably taking one of them at 62 if they’re there.

Ojabo
Jones
Williams
Tolbert

I’d be good with this first four picks.

Sold. And if Tolbert gets taken, I'd go with Pierce. And if they're both gone I'm still going with Calvin Austin over Watson.

But then if somehow all 3 are gone - that's when Watson at the back of 2 becomes a legitimate consideration.

But I think I'm probably the high man on Austin. I don't think anyone else really puts him ahead of Watson. I just think that we have the style of offense that can do a lot to minimize the height issues and take advantage of that lateral quickness and long-speed.

We don't necessarily need a big body to have a guy generate yards in this system. He won't be a read zone weapon, but he'll be absolutely terrifying between the 20s and on those 3rd down dagger routes, etc... that we used so effectively in short yardage situations.

And lets say we're at the back of 2 and all 4 of those guys are still there - I may just not take any of them. I'd survey the board and see if someone like Perrion Winfrey is slipping. And yeah, I'd get murdered for going DE, DT, DE, DT with my first 4 picks, but **** 'em - I'm driving this bus.

htismaqe 04-01-2022 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 16227147)
But if you give him 6-700 yard guys, he MIGHT be able to turn them into 1,100 yard guys.

The prognosticators and analysts seem to believe that Juju is one of these guys. Just putting that out there.

DJ's left nut 04-01-2022 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 16227202)
The prognosticators and analysts seem to believe that Juju is one of these guys. Just putting that out there.

There's a non-zero chance he is.

I'm less opposed to JJSS now that we're likely changing our offensive approach pretty substantially.

I simply didn't think he was the complement to Hill/Kelce that most others did. And frankly I still think he's mist-cast out of the slot and should be used as a more conventional X.

But we'll see. He was cheap and he might be exactly the sort of guy I'm talking about.

htismaqe 04-01-2022 08:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 16227206)
There's a non-zero chance he is.

I'm less opposed to JJSS now that we're likely changing our offensive approach pretty substantially.

I simply didn't think he was the complement to Hill/Kelce that most others did. And frankly I still think he's mist-cast out of the slot and should be used as a more conventional X.

But we'll see. He was cheap and he might be exactly the sort of guy I'm talking about.

A couple of the early NGS models I've seen have him around 1000-1100 yards and 8-10 TD's.

If we get that out of him, that would be bonus.

duncan_idaho 04-01-2022 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kccrow (Post 16227008)
A guy like Watson definitely presents a conundrum.

He has an athletic profile that absolutely screams at you "#1 WR," and I have little doubt about that. What you can't gauge is how well he's going to adapt to the NFL and how he will enhance his rudimentary route running. He's a definitive "boom or bust" prospect.

In the other corner, I look at a guy like Jalen Tolbert who doesn't have an elite athletic profile. He has a good profile, but not like Watson. What Tolbert does have is elite production and elite route-running skills (for college). His floor is incredibly higher, probably "productive #2 WR." When I do look at Tolbert's athletic profile though, I can't help but see a guy I really liked several years ago that turned out to be a draft steal and certified stud in Stefon Diggs.

So you can take a guy like Watson and hope he reaches his potential, which very well could be in the stratosphere of Justin Jefferson and Jamaar Chase, or he could easily bust. You could otherwise take a guy like Tolbert who looks to be at least a Marvin Jones caliber #2 that could be Stefon Diggs if he gets even better. When it comes to WRs, I've tried to evaluate more on that athletic profile and haven't had much luck with it in recent times. At this point, I'm taking Tolbert 100 out of 100 times early. I'll save my hopes for guys like Gray or Melton to bust out as a 4th/5th round pick.

That's fair. I like Tolbert, too. I won't complain and would be excited about both guys. Or Pierce. Really, I'd be excited about anyone except Bell, who is not athletic enough to success in the NFL

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise (Post 16227161)
With the way it’s going….you’re probably taking one of them at 62 if they’re there.

Ojabo
Jones
Williams
Tolbert

I’d be good with this first four picks.

Ojabo is starting to scare me off a bit. You read reports and his success is SO first-step dependent. For a guy who just popped an Achilles', that's a terrifying idea to me.

If the training staff signs off on it, and they make the pick, I'll be excited about the upside (while waiting nervously for the "he isn't the same" shoe to drop).

The Franchise 04-01-2022 08:31 AM

I think Juju is going to fit just fine into this offense.

The Franchise 04-01-2022 08:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 16227225)
That's fair. I like Tolbert, too. I won't complain and would be excited about both guys. Or Pierce. Really, I'd be excited about anyone except Bell, who is not athletic enough to success in the NFL



Ojabo is starting to scare me off a bit. You read reports and his success is SO first-step dependent. For a guy who just popped an Achilles', that's a terrifying idea to me.

If the training staff signs off on it, and they make the pick, I'll be excited about the upside (while waiting nervously for the "he isn't the same" shoe to drop).

And that’s why the Ojabo pick comes with another DE in the 2nd round. Hell if I’m taking Ojabo…then I’m taking three DEs in this draft. You won’t have Ojabo in his first year.

RunKC 04-01-2022 10:15 AM

The question we should be asking with Watson is this: is there a big difference between this kid and Tyquan Thornton, Velus Jones or Danny Gray?

Because you can get one of those 3 at the end of the 2nd rd.

I think I’d rather get with option B and get a Danny Gray at 62 o 94.

Nightfyre 04-01-2022 10:18 AM

I love the discussion fellas. Gimme Burks at 29, Watson at 50, and a high ceiling slot guy in the mid rounds.

DJ's left nut 04-01-2022 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 16227225)
That's fair. I like Tolbert, too. I won't complain and would be excited about both guys. Or Pierce. Really, I'd be excited about anyone except Bell, who is not athletic enough to success in the NFL

Dammit.

At some point this actually turned into a reasonable dialogue about a player.

How the hell did that happen?

**** YOU, DUNCAN! WATSON SUCKS BAWLS!!!

duncan_idaho 04-01-2022 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 16227439)
Dammit.

At some point this actually turned into a reasonable dialogue about a player.

How the hell did that happen?

**** YOU, DUNCAN! WATSON SUCKS BAWLS!!!


I know.

Multiple points made, at least on my end an adjustment (slightly down) in estimation of the player.

And now watch him go 22nd to the packers or something. Lol.

Kiimo 04-01-2022 11:22 AM

I wasn't sure which thread to put this in but this guy is a great follow on Twitter



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Some had Flowers at 4.4, which bumps the score up slightly. Fast is fast! <a href="https://t.co/ARMFPdaXMI">https://t.co/ARMFPdaXMI</a> <a href="https://t.co/Kg8kGBTz5D">pic.twitter.com/Kg8kGBTz5D</a></p>&mdash; Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) <a href="https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1509943011253399553?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 1, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

kcbubb 04-01-2022 08:16 PM

Wow. Great knowledge of history. I love chiefs planet. :clap:

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 16226476)
A few things...

First, re: Calvin Johnson

1. I've seen a few others say this, too... but Georgia Tech didn't run the triple option when Calvin Johnson was there. Chan Gailey was his coach, and they ran a multiple set, with lot of shotgun and early spread offense concepts.

2. Watson was his team's leading receiver as a sophomore, junior, and senior, just like Megatron was in his 3 years at Georgia Tech. They both played 38 games in those 3 years. You know what the difference in their receiving stats are? 2 catches/game (4.5 in an offense that threw 30 times a game instead of 2.5 in an offense that threw 20 times a game) and 25 yards per game.

Neither one of those offenses morphed into feeding the pig, as it was. Gailey ran it more than he threw it every year he had the biggest unicorn in college sports history.

Switching to that topic...

You're familiar with how successful that NDSU coaching staff has been and what a powerhouse that program is, right? They've won what, 9 of the past 11 championships at that level or something like that?

Even with Trey Lance they didn't alter their run-pass ratio. They have a system and the system and program seem to trump individual talent. Kind of like Nebraska in the Devaney/Osborne days, I guess.

Let's not act like coaching staffs don't make mistakes or stubbornly stick to their system, especially at the college level. Ole Miss had DK Metcalf and AJ Brown at the same time and somehow didn't give the ball to one of them every down.

Regarding his combine stuff...

Watson did run the 3-cone and shuttle at his pro day and put up good numbers in those, as well (above-average shuttle at 4.19 and 3-cone was above average as well at 6.96).

Finally, regarding why we're just hearing about him...

Well, before he got to the senior bowl and combine and started getting individual notice, he was a big, fast dude on a team that has never thrown it even 1 out of 3 downs while he has been there. Hard to get notice that way beyond the FCS level.


kcbubb 04-01-2022 08:36 PM

Then why does it even matter? If mahomes can turn lemons into lemonade, why not take some free agents like mvs? Why use draft capital on middling free agent level wrs? Just get some decent wrs in free agency and use your draft capital for someone who can be davante Adams or tyreek. Go for the home run in the draft. Get Watson or jameson. Or some other wr that has number 1 ability. That’s what I’m interested in. Is there another wr that has tyreek ability?

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 16226476)
A few things...

First, re: Calvin Johnson

1. I've seen a few others say this, too... but Georgia Tech didn't run the triple option when Calvin Johnson was there. Chan Gailey was his coach, and they ran a multiple set, with lot of shotgun and early spread offense concepts.

2. Watson was his team's leading receiver as a sophomore, junior, and senior, just like Megatron was in his 3 years at Georgia Tech. They both played 38 games in those 3 years. You know what the difference in their receiving stats are? 2 catches/game (4.5 in an offense that threw 30 times a game instead of 2.5 in an offense that threw 20 times a game) and 25 yards per game.

Neither one of those offenses morphed into feeding the pig, as it was. Gailey ran it more than he threw it every year he had the biggest unicorn in college sports history.

Switching to that topic...

You're familiar with how successful that NDSU coaching staff has been and what a powerhouse that program is, right? They've won what, 9 of the past 11 championships at that level or something like that?

Even with Trey Lance they didn't alter their run-pass ratio. They have a system and the system and program seem to trump individual talent. Kind of like Nebraska in the Devaney/Osborne days, I guess.

Let's not act like coaching staffs don't make mistakes or stubbornly stick to their system, especially at the college level. Ole Miss had DK Metcalf and AJ Brown at the same time and somehow didn't give the ball to one of them every down.

Regarding his combine stuff...

Watson did run the 3-cone and shuttle at his pro day and put up good numbers in those, as well (above-average shuttle at 4.19 and 3-cone was above average as well at 6.96).

Finally, regarding why we're just hearing about him...

Well, before he got to the senior bowl and combine and started getting individual notice, he was a big, fast dude on a team that has never thrown it even 1 out of 3 downs while he has been there. Hard to get notice that way beyond the FCS level.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 16227147)
Think of Patrick Mahomes as similar to Coors Field.

There's a saying in baseball circles - "Coors Field doesn't turn bad hitters into good hitters. It turns good hitters into great ones..."

I think that's what an elite quarterback does. He can't turn Demarcus Robinson into Deandre Hopkins. You can't give him guys who just aren't NFL players and have him make them into 1,000 yard guys.

But if you give him 6-700 yard guys, he MIGHT be able to turn them into 1,100 yard guys.

I think the odds of Tolbert or Pierce being merely good NFL players are significantly higher than the odds of Watson being one. And so I'm willing to leave some ceiling on the table for the floor and then let my QB do the rest.

If I had someone like Jimmy Garappolo under center, someone who needs his WRs to carry his water for him, I'm more likely to focus on the ceiling of a player than his floor.

But again - for THIS team - that's just not how I'd operate.


kcbubb 04-01-2022 08:52 PM

DJ can you explain how Austin is better than Watson? I need more detail. I’m not seeing that.

And runkc, I see watson as way better that velus, tyquan, gray or the others in the late speed category. Duncan is right. His athletic ability shows on tape. He’s a stud. his press man needs work. Way too many false steps but the ability is there with quick feet, really amazing quickness, and long arms to defeat the press. Watson is a day one immediate deep threat and immediate gadget player. His natural run after the catch is electric. He’s gonna need work on routes and the basics of the position but watson shows potential to be able to make the transition. Day one, watson is legit deep threat and gadget player and can develop the nuisances of the game over time. Watson has elite level, top 5-10 wr in the league talent but it will have to be groomed. His floor is deep threat and gadget player, which isn’t terrible and better than hardman.

DJ's left nut 04-01-2022 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcbubb (Post 16228309)
DJ can you explain how Austin is better than Watson? I need more detail. I’m not seeing that.

Because when people want to talk about Watson's athleticism, what they really mean is that he's shockingly athletic for someone that TALL.

Because if you want to talk about athleticism, Austin beats him literally across the board.

40: 4.36 vs. 4.32 -- Austin
3-cone: 6.96 vs. 6.65 -- Austin
Shuttle: 4.19 vs. 4.07 -- Austin

Watson is a great athlete, but a generational one? He's not even the best athlete in this class. He's just a very rare sort of athlete for someone as tall as he is.

And I don't care that much about his height. Not in a WCO w/ a QB that can challenge every blade of grass on the field.

Moreover, Austin is hard as a coffin nail. He's tough as ****. He wasn't some undersized slot WR out there looking to avoid contact. He was playing wide, getting off presses, working the middle and attacking the boundaries. To my eyes he is a FAR more dynamic player. He also looks more polished as an actual WR to me - very natural in his movements when he cuts or when he goes after the ball. And because of his build and stature, he's actually REALLY hard to knock off his route. If you get him off stride it just doesn't matter because he foot-fires right back into line.

He's just short. And yeah, that's unfortunate, but when you have a smart offensive staff and an elite QB, not to mention guys like Kelce, JJSS and MVS who can occupy the larger DBs on the defense anyway, you can find a LOT of space for Austin to work in. And if you get him in space, the defense is just completely boned. The way he gets to speed with those incredibly fast feet just make him impossible to isolate and keeps all those easy money sideways short pitch and catches in the playbook. I just don't see that with Watson.

DJ's left nut 04-01-2022 10:37 PM

And again - it isn't to say that he's a better prospect in a vacuum - that's not typically an analysis I'll make or that I think is worth making.

I think he's a better prospect for Kansas City. I think the slight edge in athleticism as well as the way he gets his speed through short, almost violent steps, is a greater advantage in this offense than Watson's height.

I mean yeah, Hill is a lazy comparison, but that's exactly the sort of thing that made Hill such a bitch when he got his shoulders square to a defender as opposed to Hardman's speed that isn't as 'jittery'.

How a guy like Austin gets his speed and his ability to stop/start more quickly is simply more valuable to me than Watson's added height when I'm trying to put pieces around this quarterback in this system.

DJ's left nut 04-01-2022 10:54 PM

One more thing, and it's a point I'm not sure I've made yet, but it involves running mechanics.

Watson is obviously very tall and long legged; he's a long-strider. Now that doesn't mean he's slow to get up to speed because he isn't. But the way he gets his speed to is just eat up turf with every stride, like say Usain Bolt. And on a track there's no downside to that at all.

But in football, with another guy trying to disrupt your stride and/or knock you off your route, it creates an issue.

I was a shitty football player (only bad ballplayer on CP) but I took to coaching well. And one thing I was always taught as a DB was that when you're alongside a receiver, what him in the hands as he's running. You'll never get a flag thrown (I never did) but as he's pumping those arms, if you have a hand down by your hip just giving him a little chuck, you'll throw his running mechanics off. You'll disrupt his stride.

Now when you're a little guy like Austin, literally every time your foot hits the ground again, your body will 'self-correct' and get you back in line. Because the movements were small and precise. You can't really get disrupted much when you're constantly correcting via small movements.

Meanwhile if you're someone that gets his speed like Watson, getting your stride disrupted just ruins the route. You're going to have a much harder time self-correcting because in that 20 yards you run (for example), you took 15 strides with larger, more levery movements. As opposed to a little sparkplug with rapid footfires like Austin who's constantly correcting.

Think of it as making a small correction to catch a skid through a turn vs. power-sliding through it. Oh sure, by the end you're still pointing the same direction, but if you're making smaller and quicker corrections in the skid, you'll come out of the corner in far better shape than if you kick the ass end out and than catch it.

If you give me 2 guys with the same speed but one of them is 6 inches shorter than the other, that shorter guy is going to have more functional 'football' speed damn near every single time.

And when you see Austin out there playing the Z at Memphis, you can see exactly what I'm talking about. People just thought they could body this little dude off his route and then they realize real fast that this guy is damn sturdy and uses that shorter stature to make himself damn near impossible to re-route.

Whereas Watson, that IS one of the concerns I've read about him. He's a guy you can knock off his route - and that's just not terribly surprising. It makes all the sense in the world when you think about the physics that have to be involved in a 6'5" guy's running mechanics.

And it won't show up on the highlights we watch because you just won't see the plays where the QB doesn't go his way on those tapes because he got taken off his route.

kcbubb 04-02-2022 12:33 AM

I think that’s a fair assessment of equal speed for short guys vs tall guys but the little guys with dinosaur arms have to get off the jam and Austin is tiny. He’s not muscled up like hill. Is Austin gonna get bullied in the nfl? Austin is only 5’7” and 170 lbs. I don’t know if he’ll get bullied or not. He’s one my fav late round guys. Maybe our late 3rd? I don’t know but his size and how he’ll handle the press and contact is a risk with his size but I do like him.

One thing to notice is that Watson’s 10 yard split is 1.45, which is crazy. Austin’s 10 yd split is 1.5. Watson’s quickness is real and it shows. Watch him on in the senior bowl and his quickness is crazy for his size. His catch range is also a plus. Watson’s size and long arms are also a plus against the press and any kind of contact. Watsons floor is a deep threat and gadget guy. I’m not sure what Austin’s floor is. Maybe tavon austin?

I’d take watson in the first. He’s worth the risk for me with his tape. It’s risky with his numbers and competition but he’s got burst, change of direction. He doesn’t have to build up his speed. He’s a freak and again, you see it on his tape. He’s not an underwear guy. Huge hands and he can catch and run routes. He’s raw. But can it translate to the nfl? I don’t know. That’s why jameson is worth a trade up for me. He’s dominated the big boys in college. But austin is intriguing in the late third or early 4th for me. I like him. But he doesn’t have the ceiling of watson, not close.

kcbubb 04-02-2022 12:40 AM

Also, if we ar going with a little wr, I really like wandale Robinson. He’s really shifty and compact. Mini deebo. He’s not the deep threat that austin is though.

Chargem 04-02-2022 01:37 AM

I really hope they take 2 shots at WR in the draft, but it seems relatively unlikely to me. I think Andy normally carries 6 WR, and you have JJSS, MVS, Hardman locking up the first 3 slots. If the rumours about another veteran are true, it just seems unlikely.

Coochie liquor 04-02-2022 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 16198669)
I'd run up to the podium if Watson was there at #62.

You might get in trouble, but I’ll watch for you.

RealSNR 04-03-2022 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcbubb (Post 16223113)
Picking a wr in the first is not based on NEED. It’s based on VALUE. The value for de & dt is in the 2nd. Big drop off for wrs in the 2nd.


You sound like 2018 Brett Veach justifying the Breeland Speaks trade up

duncan_idaho 04-03-2022 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcbubb (Post 16223113)
Picking a wr in the first is not based on NEED. It’s based on VALUE. The value for de & dt is in the 2nd. Big drop off for wrs in the 2nd.


I don’t think any of us can say where the drop-off is going to be.

The guys that are clear first round values at WR and DE all may be gone by 29. At both positions you’re talking a “tier drop.” So then it just comes down to a team’s individual grade.

Honestly, the more I look at it the more I’m convinced that S is the only position that will be guaranteed to have a true 1st round value available at 29 and 30. So I fully expect one of Brisker or Hill to be a real possibility there.

Bowser 04-03-2022 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 16230183)
I don’t think any of us can say where the drop-off is going to be.

The guys that are clear first round values at WR and DE all may be gone by 29. At both positions you’re talking a “tier drop.” So then it just comes down to a team’s individual grade.

Honestly, the more I look at it the more I’m convinced that S is the only position that will be guaranteed to have a true 1st round value available at 29 and 30. So I fully expect one of Brisker or Hill to be a real possibility there.

I'm way more on board with taking Hill now that we have a second first rounder.

raybec 4 04-03-2022 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coochie liquor (Post 16228843)
You might get in trouble, but I’ll watch for you.

Just say you're Will Smith. You can walk onto any stage you want and start smacking people.

Chief Northman 04-03-2022 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bowser (Post 16230197)
I'm way more on board with taking Hill now that we have a second first rounder.

I think this kid has a chance to be special. You can line him up anywhere in a secondary and he would probably fare well. So versatile and smart, and the kid is not afraid to step up and tackle and is an effective blitzer. If the Chiefs end up adding a veteran at corner like Gilmore or Bradberry, Dax Hill would be a cherry on top of what all of a sudden becomes a talented and daunting secondary.

kcbubb 04-03-2022 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kccrow (Post 16227008)

So you can take a guy like Watson and hope he reaches his potential, which very well could be in the stratosphere of Justin Jefferson and Jamaar Chase, or he could easily bust. You could otherwise take a guy like Tolbert who looks to be at least a Marvin Jones caliber #2 that could be Stefon Diggs if he gets even better. When it comes to WRs, I've tried to evaluate more on that athletic profile and haven't had much luck with it in recent times. At this point, I'm taking Tolbert 100 out of 100 times early. I'll save my hopes for guys like Gray or Melton to bust out as a 4th/5th round pick.

I think this explanation is the best rationale for our differences in approaching the draft. I want the boom guy. If he busts, so be it. I feel like we can find the Pringle types anytime in Fa or elsewhere. Burks might be the best compromise but his route running is a concern. I’m not as concerned about his speed even with the combine bc of his tape and the 22.6 mph on the field. I heard on nfl network that burks weight ballooned up to 240 lbs! That’s a concern also. We don’t need him having weight issues like kelvin benjamin.

raybec 4 04-03-2022 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcbubb (Post 16230481)
I think this explanation is the best rationale for our differences in approaching the draft. I want the boom guy. If he busts, so be it. I feel like we can find the Pringle types anytime in Fa or elsewhere. Burks might be the best compromise but his route running is a concern. I’m not as concerned about his speed even with the combine bc of his tape and the 22.6 mph on the field. I heard on nfl network that burks weight ballooned up to 240 lbs! That’s a concern also. We don’t need him having weight issues like kelvin benjamin.

I would rather have the guy who could be solid at minimum. Watson could be fantastic but he could be Jon Baldwin.

kcbubb 04-03-2022 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RealSNR (Post 16230112)
You sound like 2018 Brett Veach justifying the Breeland Speaks trade up

The ceiling after burks and jameson is lower except for Watson. The edge guys in the second, several of them have a high ceiling.

Chris Meck 04-03-2022 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcbubb (Post 16230746)
The ceiling after burks and jameson is lower except for Watson. The edge guys in the second, several of them have a high ceiling.

I don't agree with the first half of this at all, but agree entirely with the second half.

kcbubb 04-03-2022 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raybec 4 (Post 16230537)
I would rather have the guy who could be solid at minimum. Watson could be fantastic but he could be Jon Baldwin.

Why? And I’d say that Watson should be an mvs type at a minimum. But let’s stay on point, why the need to find a solid wr at a minimum? Can’t we find solid wrs in free agency cheap considering our oline and qb? This is a good time to take a risk and go for the high ceiling wr. Can’t fountain be solid? And what if we hit on a stud wr like jefferson? With these extra picks and cap savings, we should be Super Bowl bound if we happen to draft a jefferson type player in the draft. Come on guys. Let’s go for a stud wr and take some risk. Let fountain be your hope for solid contributor. Why the push to play it safe? Sounds like the old argument for not drafting a qb in the 1st? It’s safer!

Daurice Fountain

Measurable Measurement %tile
Height 6' 1½"* 60
Weight 206 lbs* 61
10 Yard Split 1.65s* 4
20 Yard Split 2.6s* 49
40 Yard Dash 4.51s* 52
Vertical Jump 42½"* 98
Broad Jump 134"* 97
3-Cone Drill 7.02s* 39
20 Yard Shuttle 4.29s* 33
Bench Press 14 reps* 46

kcbubb 04-03-2022 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 16230751)
I don't agree with the first half of this at all, but agree entirely with the second half.

Are you talking about Austin? Maybe pierce?

emaw1979 04-05-2022 01:02 AM

He's my favorite WR in the draft due to Williams' injury and availability.

Chris Simms has a recent podcast discussion about his top 5 WRs in the draft and gushes about him.

The Franchise 04-05-2022 07:41 AM

Pro Football Network's Aaron Wilson reports Nebraska WR Samori Toure is drawing "heavy interest" from the Chiefs, Bengals, Packers, Colts, and 49ers.

A rising wideout prospect as the NFL Draft draws near, Toure -- who set a Cornhuskers record with five 100-yard receiving games in 2021 -- could be a sought-after player for receiver-needy teams like the Chiefs and Packers, who last month lost Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams, respectively. Toure in 2021 had the second highest yards per reception (19.5) in Nebraska history thanks to a host of big downfield plays in the Cornhuskers offense. His four catch, 150 yard, one touchdown performance against Ohio State in November drew national attention. He transferred to Nebraska from Montana, where he caught 155 passes for 2,488 yards and 20 touchdowns over three years. Toure would have immediate fantasy intrigue if he were to land in Kansas City of Green Bay.

Coogs 04-05-2022 07:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise (Post 16233462)
Pro Football Network's Aaron Wilson reports Nebraska WR Samori Toure is drawing "heavy interest" from the Chiefs, Bengals, Packers, Colts, and 49ers.

A rising wideout prospect as the NFL Draft draws near, Toure -- who set a Cornhuskers record with five 100-yard receiving games in 2021 -- could be a sought-after player for receiver-needy teams like the Chiefs and Packers, who last month lost Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams, respectively. Toure in 2021 had the second highest yards per reception (19.5) in Nebraska history thanks to a host of big downfield plays in the Cornhuskers offense. His four catch, 150 yard, one touchdown performance against Ohio State in November drew national attention. He transferred to Nebraska from Montana, where he caught 155 passes for 2,488 yards and 20 touchdowns over three years. Toure would have immediate fantasy intrigue if he were to land in Kansas City of Green Bay.

He would be a great 7th round pick. In fact there are several Huskers who would be nice additions to our team.

Titty Meat 04-05-2022 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise (Post 16233462)
Pro Football Network's Aaron Wilson reports Nebraska WR Samori Toure is drawing "heavy interest" from the Chiefs, Bengals, Packers, Colts, and 49ers.

A rising wideout prospect as the NFL Draft draws near, Toure -- who set a Cornhuskers record with five 100-yard receiving games in 2021 -- could be a sought-after player for receiver-needy teams like the Chiefs and Packers, who last month lost Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams, respectively. Toure in 2021 had the second highest yards per reception (19.5) in Nebraska history thanks to a host of big downfield plays in the Cornhuskers offense. His four catch, 150 yard, one touchdown performance against Ohio State in November drew national attention. He transferred to Nebraska from Montana, where he caught 155 passes for 2,488 yards and 20 touchdowns over three years. Toure would have immediate fantasy intrigue if he were to land in Kansas City of Green Bay.

If he had speed he would be a great NFL WR. Very good college WR just don't think he's fast enough at the next level

DJ's left nut 04-05-2022 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise (Post 16233462)
Pro Football Network's Aaron Wilson reports Nebraska WR Samori Toure is drawing "heavy interest" from the Chiefs, Bengals, Packers, Colts, and 49ers.

A rising wideout prospect as the NFL Draft draws near, Toure -- who set a Cornhuskers record with five 100-yard receiving games in 2021 -- could be a sought-after player for receiver-needy teams like the Chiefs and Packers, who last month lost Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams, respectively. Toure in 2021 had the second highest yards per reception (19.5) in Nebraska history thanks to a host of big downfield plays in the Cornhuskers offense. His four catch, 150 yard, one touchdown performance against Ohio State in November drew national attention. He transferred to Nebraska from Montana, where he caught 155 passes for 2,488 yards and 20 touchdowns over three years. Toure would have immediate fantasy intrigue if he were to land in Kansas City of Green Bay.

I presume he's another guy we wouldn't have a problem taking in the first round?

Coogs 04-05-2022 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Titty Meat (Post 16233507)
If he had speed he would be a great NFL WR. Very good college WR just don't think he's fast enough at the next level

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si....2022-nfl-draft

Times are not terrible.

SAGA45 04-05-2022 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Titty Meat (Post 16233507)
If he had speed he would be a great NFL WR. Very good college WR just don't think he's fast enough at the next level

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/HuskerFBNation?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@HuskerFBNation</a> WR Samori Toure (<a href="https://twitter.com/samori_toure?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@samori_toure</a>) had a great Pro Day yesterday.<br><br>Along with the 4.43 below (and all times in 4.4s), other numbers from his day:<br><br>SS - 4.22 <br>3C - 6.77 <br>BJ - 10’4 <br>VJ - 34.5 <br>Bench - 7 <a href="https://t.co/4uRO0bYg3V">https://t.co/4uRO0bYg3V</a></p>&mdash; Eric Galko (@EricGalko) <a href="https://twitter.com/EricGalko/status/1506626400656273413?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 23, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Chris Meck 04-05-2022 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcbubb (Post 16230758)
Are you talking about Austin? Maybe pierce?


Austin, sure. Pierce, sure.

Pickens, Metchie, Doubs-even Danny Gray later could project as a difficult to cover WR that can create big plays. Which is really what we're talking about when we say "#1 WR".

Titty Meat 04-05-2022 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SAGA45 (Post 16234451)
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/HuskerFBNation?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@HuskerFBNation</a> WR Samori Toure (<a href="https://twitter.com/samori_toure?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@samori_toure</a>) had a great Pro Day yesterday.<br><br>Along with the 4.43 below (and all times in 4.4s), other numbers from his day:<br><br>SS - 4.22 <br>3C - 6.77 <br>BJ - 10’4 <br>VJ - 34.5 <br>Bench - 7 <a href="https://t.co/4uRO0bYg3V">https://t.co/4uRO0bYg3V</a></p>&mdash; Eric Galko (@EricGalko) <a href="https://twitter.com/EricGalko/status/1506626400656273413?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 23, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

OK? A bunch of useless numbers in shorts. You've never even seen the kid play. Watched him every week good college player doesn't have top end speed isn't very physical. He will struggle at the next level. You guys are way too married to numbers. Why do you think he's a projected 7th rounder?

SAGA45 04-06-2022 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Titty Meat (Post 16234778)
OK? A bunch of useless numbers in shorts. You've never even seen the kid play.

You're wrong on both accounts.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Titty Meat (Post 16234778)
Watched him every week good college player doesn't have top end speed isn't very physical. He will struggle at the next level.

Well... if that's the case you should notify the teams with reported heavy interest in him, including the Chiefs, and let them know they're wasting their time and resources. I'm sure they'd appreciate the heads-up.

chiefforlife 04-06-2022 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Titty Meat (Post 16234778)
OK? A bunch of useless numbers in shorts. You've never even seen the kid play. Watched him every week good college player doesn't have top end speed isn't very physical. He will struggle at the next level. You guys are way too married to numbers. Why do you think he's a projected 7th rounder?


Well the Chiefs have seen enough to be interested. Maybe they are thinking 7th round?

This is why they have 7 rounds, no?

Titty Meat 04-06-2022 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SAGA45 (Post 16235500)
You're wrong on both accounts.



Well... if that's the case you should notify the teams with reported heavy interest in him, including the Chiefs, and let them know they're wasting their time and resources. I'm sure they'd appreciate the heads-up.

Lol you read an article about a player saw a bunch of numbers and thought he was going to be a great draft pick. You get called out on it and now are ass hurt.

SAGA45 04-06-2022 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Titty Meat (Post 16235853)
Lol you read an article about a player saw a bunch of numbers and thought he was going to be a great draft pick. You get called out on it and now are ass hurt.

:LOL: Man, to be perfectly honest with you, I wish I still had the energy to be bothered by forum comments as hilariously off-base as yours. Those days are well within the rearview, however. I'm good, trust me.

Dante84 04-12-2022 12:03 PM

Anyone else think that Reid or Veach might fall in love with him and pull the trigger early @ 30?

I just keep getting this thought that one of the two of them (or both) are in love with his size/speed combo.

Assuming the top 5 WR's are gone, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

Not advocating for it to happen, but I'll get on board quick if Brett decides to flop his nuts on the table for Watson.

The Franchise 04-12-2022 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dante84 (Post 16242858)
Anyone else think that Reid or Veach might fall in love with him and pull the trigger early @ 30?

I just keep getting this thought that one of the two of them (or both) are in love with his size/speed combo.

Assuming the top 5 WR's are gone, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

Not advocating for it to happen, but I'll get on board quick if Brett decides to flop his nuts on the table for Watson.

I still don't think that WR is the pick at 29 or 30....unless one of those top 5 fall.

Rasputin 04-12-2022 12:17 PM

I want our first two picks edge pass rusher and a D lineman then third pick id be happy with another D lineman after that it's BAP I'm sure a good WR will be in the scopes.

DJ's left nut 04-12-2022 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dante84 (Post 16242858)
Anyone else think that Reid or Veach might fall in love with him and pull the trigger early @ 30?

I just keep getting this thought that one of the two of them (or both) are in love with his size/speed combo.

Assuming the top 5 WR's are gone, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

Not advocating for it to happen, but I'll get on board quick if Brett decides to flop his nuts on the table for Watson.

No.

I don’t think the organization is as smitten by a tall kid that drops a lot of balls and has about 1/3 of a route tree as some on CP are.

Again - nobody is talking about this kid as anything special if he’s 6’2”. He’s not the most athletic WR in this draft and you have to trust his pro day figures on the agility drills to think he’s anything special at all.

He’s just tall. Good for him. Doesn’t mean much of anything in a WCO system - this isn’t a 50/50 ball offense.

DJ's left nut 04-12-2022 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise (Post 16242862)
I still don't think that WR is the pick at 29 or 30....unless one of those top 5 fall.

Treylon Burks is the only guy who might fall that I could see them truly drooling over. The versatility and the raw clay will be hugely appealing to them, IMO.

Nightfyre 04-12-2022 05:55 PM

I think they will value Pickens and Moore pretty highly relative to the big boards on teh interwebs. Both have outstanding hands and make catches that you wouldn't expect.

Pickens is more athletic in pads, and runs some crisp routes. He also plays with that same ferocity I like, including blocking.

When I watched Moore for the first time, the first comp that popped into my brain is Julian Edelman. Crazy hands. Snappy, crisp routes and breaks. Makes tacklers miss. My reservation on him would be that his combine speed doesn't come through to his game speed. Granted, I only have what I can find on youtube.

kcbubb 04-16-2022 11:04 AM

Are you concerned about Watsons drop rate? Can he catch?

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 16227497)
I know.

Multiple points made, at least on my end an adjustment (slightly down) in estimation of the player.

And now watch him go 22nd to the packers or something. Lol.



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