Does having outstanding defense and cyborg relievers help our clutch? It certainly is a huge factor in allowing us to win close games as we are much more difficult to score runs against late in the game than our competition is.

Yes, FG found a +2 game premium for elite bullpens. Defensive advanced metrics are quite new so not much data. The issue is the offense. Our hitting with RISP was off the charts this year. Our "clutch" score (which takes RISP as one factor) is the 50th best of the past 40 years. That's 96% percentile.


(Our 1985 team checks in at 41st best....:-)

I don't know if I want Ian Kennedy from those stats. But Moore knows what he is doing so I put my trust in whatever he decides!

I wonder if our ability to not strike out plays into that.

The +2 game premium isn't enough for our bullpen; that is likely one of the formulas that contributes to the grossly low win prediction the last few years. Our bullpen was one of the best in history. Our defense is great too and I'm sure that is a large contributor as well.

I am sure some of the HR hitters in our division would love to face him. He is one of those pitchers to pad your power numbers against.

Absent some string of injuries, I can't fathom this team turning out only 78 wins.

Less wins than last year is plausible, but I think 10 would be about the max.

A 2 game premium? Sure, I'll buy that number if we're talking about just the playoffs.

For the regular season, I'd give it just under 10%, or roughly the equivalent of about 16 games. I'd give our historic defense probably just under 5% / 8 games.

Does anyone think that the Royals bullpen and defensive play didn't have an impact on them winning in 24 out of all 162 games last season?

I watched about 90% of the games last year, and probably 96% of their games through August, so the predominant number of the games I didn't watch were early to mid September.

This is also why opposing hitters loved Chris Young, right?

From Heyman on Twitter :

royals are said to be making progress on ian kennedy. talking are ongoing.

So GMDM may come out of the off season with Gordon, Young, Kennedy and Soria? That's solid.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Louis coleman, KC settle at 725K</p>&mdash; Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/687997784910360577">January 15, 2016</a></blockquote>
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That's a lot of money to spend for a team to still be stuck with Infante as the starting second baseman.

With backup options in Colon and Mondesi. Strike while the iron is hot.

Moore has already said he is not wed to Omar at 2nd... Colon is going to get a shot.

The 2015 Royals had the best record in the American League with Infante as the starting second baseman.

I think they'll be OK.

Also could always make another deadline move if needed. He is still above avg defensively.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Can confirm Dyson deal for $1.75M. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Royals?src=hash">#Royals</a></p>&mdash; Jeffrey Flanagan (@FlannyMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/FlannyMLB/status/688023081852518401">January 15, 2016</a></blockquote>
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Steamer loves 2016 Kennedy:

11-11 3.90era. 182ip. 172k-58bb. 2.2war

I'd kill to plug that into the rotation this year.

Agreed.

Print 'em
to the 'ship!

Volquez, Medlen, Ventura, Kennedy, Duffy, Young, Almonte, maybe Zimmer. Not bad.

Our defense, park, and bullpen turn that into an above average rotation. Put that rotation in Philly and it'd be awful.

Forgot to throw Gee in the mix.

Any chance the Ming Wang might be a 1 inning bull pen piece?

I'll take the over on innings and under on the ERA.

It's a very nice fit. And my Jeff Francoeur-to-Royals-like obsession with Kennedy can finally be satisfied.

I have hopes for Gee also. His story is kind of like Madson's. Madson, before injury was a damn good closer for the Phillys. In 2014, Gee was the Met's opening day starter. Then, injuries got him. If he's healthy, he could contribute.

I'm not as optimistic about Wang.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Royals?src=hash">#Royals</a> sign LHP Danny Duffy and C <a href="https://twitter.com/drewbutera">@drewbutera</a> to contracts for 2016, avoiding arbitration with both players.</p>&mdash; Kansas City Royals (@Royals) <a href="https://twitter.com/Royals/status/688079184799764480">January 15, 2016</a></blockquote>
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Seems like he is very similar to what Santana was before coming to KC?

Ervin's peripherals were less sexy than Kennedy's. I think we just caught lightening in a bottle with ES. Kennedy, i think has a case of the Green-itus. Don't ask me where I get that, cause I don't have a source. I just look at his picture and think, "That dude smokes weed."

ZiPS likes him less....as a 161ip 160k-55bb 4.12era 0.9 zWAR.


But his signing would truly complete you, and put a nice bow on a whirlwind year in your household. :D

This is too bad. I had high hopes for Adams;

The Yankees claimed former Royals outfielder Lane Adams off outright waivers. Adams was designated for assignment Jan. 7 to clear 40-man roster space for the return of left fielder Alex Gordon.

Yankees claiming Royals players off waivers...amazing.

Nice. I think Butera is a big one. It certainly takes the pressure off of having to use that AIDS**** catcher we got from the Cards

Tony Cruz is going to win the backup catcher position, prepare yourself.

Without Butera drawing a walk in the World Series we wouldn't be here right now

Because... why?

You mean the tie game in the DS.

@JeffPassan: All winter, KC balked at what team officials say Lorenzo Cain wanted: a six-year deal. Lack of long-term pact means likely gone after '17.

Gordon says the Royals have "no chance" of resigning him.

That may be a big reason why we re-signed Gordon.

On the flip side, Cain is going to be 32 his first year of FA. Giving him a $100+ million deal through his age 37 season is probably a way bigger risk than re-signing Gordon. I guess it depends on how injury prone he is these next two years... we'll see how the market plays out.

@jcrasnick: Lorenzo Cain will make $6.5M and $11M in the next two years. No club options. He'll be free agent after 2017 season. #royals

I'd hate to see Cain go. He's probably my favorite Royal. Love the way he plays defense.

If Cain can get a 6 year deal when he hits FA, more power to him. I bet he gets max 4 unless it's structured team friendly, or his power hits the roof and you can slot him at right field. Still don't think that's likely.

The Royals are doing what they can do to be competitive now, and not handicap us for years down the road. Can't say I am complaining about anything they are doing.

Yeah. I've long thought that Cain was someone you control until FA, get what you can, and say goodbye to.

His game, even on offense, is so dependent on his legs, it seems very likely he will suffer a Carl Crawford-like fall once he starts to lose a step.

Interesting story and stats on Ian Kennedy - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/still...w-ian-kennedy/

A few slices from the story...

You let Cain walk. Get his best WAR years and say bye.

Great post!

That last sentence is hilarious.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">ian kennedy, royals in agreement on $70M, 5-yr deal</p>&mdash; Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/688351171023470592">January 16, 2016</a></blockquote>
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Done deal.

Thoughts on Kennedy?

I like it because I think we had to have another arm with the question marks in the rotation and uncertainty about Zimmer/Almonte.

He's got decent peripherals. Should play up in our park and with our defense. Dude can log the innings and has been relatively injury free his entire career.

So with all that being said, in today's free agency it's hard to HATE a deal that only pays a SP $14m/year. Has some upside to be a great contract but will likely be hard for it to be a terrible one.

Kennedy is a great fit for KC but I did not expect him to get that much after that mediocre year in San Diego. The pitching market is out of control.

Especially also giving up a draft pick. Got a year more than I thought, but still less than Leake and Smard.

Apparently the deal has an opt-out after year 2. Will be interesting to see the year by year numbers breakdown.

I was thinking something like 4/56 at most, yeah. Durability has its value, though. It's why the Jays keep paying Dickey something like 14M a season to throw his 200 mediocre innings.

I am complete.

Kennedy is a nice fit for KC in terms of park, as a flyball pitcher, and Eiland has worked with him a lot. He was very good from June on last year and is durable.

Strengths: good changeup, misses a lot of bats. Improve his breaking ball last year and increased swing and misses from it, too. Actually kind of a lite version of James Shields in terms of stuff. He has been durable and is a fiery competitor.

He did give up a lot of HR last year, especially on the first pitch. But that seems more like an anomaly than anything.

Put him in front of this defense, in this park, and I think you like the results.

This also will help bridge the gap in those post-2017 years. You're now looking to have ventura and Kennedy in the rotation through 2020.

The Os just handed out 7/161M to Davis in what can only be considered to be the new version of the Ryan Howard contract. How long before they regret that one? Three years? Less?

When JA Happ is getting $12 million a year, $14 million for Kennedy seems like a bargain (Id seen some suggest Kennedy would be its high as $17 million/year).

He's got more than mediocre upside and a pretty stable floor.

It's not the salary that surprised me here, but the years. And I think I'd take Happ at 3 years over Kennedy at 5 years. Don't think there's too much difference between them in quality really (other than Happ coming off the much better 2015: 3.61 ERA/3.41 FIP vs. 4.28 ERA/4.51 FIP).

*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***
 

Spending some coin lately. This is our last major move right? Anything else would be spring training invite or something most likely?

Sounds like there's an opt out after 2, so that mitigates some of the risk. That's of course assuming it's the Royals option to opt out.

Anything else would be bargain bin shopping, like Chris Young last year.

Like the signing as well...pitching def costs

I am going to need more space on my wall after next season

I'd guess we will see a GMDM special here or there. He's known to take a flier on a reclamation project or two after free agency is nearly dead. Value signings.

I assume Fister or Lee are not on that flyers board. Who realistically is out there that they would sign. I like the Kennedy signing...our def will help alot

Very nice. I felt like we needed one more solid pitcher. Good offseason.

You guys cool with making another WS run? Does that sound OK to everyone?

i just love the fact that our Management recognizes that we still have an opportunity to go for it and repeat in 2016. This makes me happy

2 biggest contracts in franchise history within a week of each other. Is it too soon to start the "repeat" chant?

Funny that this place has been talking about getting Kennedy for like three years now. I like the signing a lot.

There's perhaps less risk with Happ, but he also is a guy who cashed in on one good half season, the best performance by far of his career. Don't believe he's ever finished a full season with an ERA under 4 over the rest of his career... And isn't he 33?

Not a shot at him, just that even guys with warts are getting a lot of years and dollars.

Over the past five years, Kennedy has been the better pitcher overall and been more durable and reliable. Combine that with being younger, and that's where separation comes in.

Kennedy's 2011 was flat out filthy. It's too bad that it was most certainly an anomaly. Even still, the dude can eat up innings like nobody else. I'm thrilled about these last couple of weeks.

Oh, I don't like Happ as a pitcher much at all (remember, I got a firsthand look at the guy for years before his "awakening" in Pittsburgh last year). Didn't like the 3/36 when I first heard about it either and I don't buy that he'll repeat his 2015 again. But I'd still take his brand of mediocrity for 3 years over Kennedy's slightly better brand over 5. The 5th year really seems a bit excessive.

One of the reasons I've been littering these threads with love letters to him is that he never has pitched for a team set up to accentuate his strengths and cover his weaknesses like KC can.

He'll make at least 2/3 of his starts in stadiums that are good for flyball pitchers (KC, Minnesota, Detroit) and will have an elite OF defense.

His previous situations were a high altitude bandbox and a team with an absolutely awful OF defense.

That, and the Royals could have gotten him from the Diamondbacks two years ago for the equivalent of Aaron Crow and Buddy Baumann...

Have always liked Kennedy, don't like 5 years. But I'll complain about that after the window closes in 2017. He makes us better for the next 2 years.

Yep. I think we will like this deal for the next 2 years and then scratch our heads after that. Guess what, who cares? We are going for it while we can. And THAT is awesome!

Rany freaking out about after 2 yrs esp if Kennedy gets hurt. Says he is probably gone after 2 if he's good

5 years doesn't worry me. $14m 5 years from now will be #5 starter money.

@FlannyMLB: And #Royals aren't done yet. May still add another cost-efficient starter and/or bullpen help.

Rany's 5 tweets on the signing combined:

"Don't be fooled: It's not a 5-year deal. It's a 2-year deal with a 3-year player option. If he's good, he's gone in 2018 like everyone else. But if he hurts his shoulder in the first two years, we're on the hook for 5 years. That's a LOT of risk for a pretty modest upside. As a general rule of thumb, when the player option is LONGER than the guaranteed portion of the contract, the risk exceeds the reward. For the money they've spent on Ian Kennedy and Joakim Soria, the Royals could have signed Jordan Zimmermann, and avoided the opt-out. Hmmm. I think Ian Kennedy is a better pitcher than he's shown the last 3 years. But over the last 3 years, he's been BELOW-REPLACEMENT LEVEL."

That's interesting. Who else is still out there that fits that category?