ChiefsPlanet - Cardinals ****The Official 2019 STL Cardinals Thread****

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****The Official 2019 STL Cardinals Thread**** (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=320239)

Quote:

Originally Posted by BDj23 (Post 14200018)

:shake:

Jesus Christ Ozuna.

That was beer league softball bad. He makes Lonnie Smith look like Ken Griffey Jr.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14199983)

Additionally - Carlson took Kershaw deep tonight. Hes gonna be gooooooooood

Damn! Plus chalk up another Cardinal dagger to the heart for Kershaw.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/HWlr78kjRA">pic.twitter.com/HWlr78kjRA</a></p>— T-Man (@troycupp) <a href="https://twitter.com/troycupp/status/1115929089418743808?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

LMAO

Quote:

Originally Posted by VAChief (Post 14200190)

That was beer league softball bad. He makes Lonnie Smith look like Ken Griffey Jr.

Gotta love a good Skates reference...

Just from my eyes, that if O'Neill gets 2 AB's in a game, something positive happens or he lays off that slider out of the zone better.

Hamas/DJ or any other stat educated baseball geek know if this is true or not? Know where I should look to confirm or find out its a BS theory?

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 14200275)

I don't know of any public source for data like that, but you could probably research a month as a sample and just see what you find. What you are wondering about is why guys like Martinez are valuable on your bench. It is difficult to come off the bench for one at bat and build stats that look productive. You don't have the benefit of a second, third or fourth look that starters sometimes get.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 14200275)

Hard to say for sure; I'd imagine Fangraphs custom reports or Baseball reference play index would do it for you but I don't have subscriptions to either.

But a quick and dirty breakdown that probably kinda submarines your thought here:

As a starter:

28 games, 116 PAs (suggesting he generally gets a full game's worth of PAs) and a triple slash of .239/.267/.440 -- OPS of .708 w/ 6 bombs and 15 RBI.

As a sub:

43 games, 43 PAs (so...y'know, generally only a single AB) and a triple slash of .289/.372/.605 w/ 3 bombs and 11 RBI.

At least to this point in his career and over admittedly small sample sizes, he's been MUCH better in short spurts than as a starter. He's actually been pretty lousy as a starter.

Now there's an interesting counterpoint here:

Vs SP 1st time through the order:
.182/.206/.364
Vs SP 2nd time through:
.318/.346/591
Vs SP 3rd time through:
.350/.381/.700

Vs. reliever:
.243/.303/.457

Again - we're working with prohibitively small sample sizes and the bottom line is that EVERY hitter does better the 2nd and 3rd times they see a SP, but there is some evidence that if he gets a look at a P a 2nd time, he's in pretty nice shape and it's really just a catastrophically lousy 1st time through the order that has kept his numbers as a starter down.

And when you look at his PAs vs. relievers and compare those to his numbers as a sub (78 PAs vs. relievers; only 43 total PAs as sub, some of which would've been vs. the starter so lots of PAs vs. relievers came as a starter) you can see that his relatively poor performance levels vs. relievers as a whole when contrasted against his really good numbers as a sub means that when he's starting, he's getting WRECKED by the first relief pitcher to come into the game.

So if you start him you get a shitty PA, 1-2 pretty good PAs and then 1-2 pretty lousy ones as the matchups start in the late innings (whether he gets 1 or 2 good PAs in a game depends on the opposing manager leaving the starter in to face him a 3rd time). If you bring him off the bench, you're probably getting one pretty decent PA.

So there's some merit to the idea, but there's also an acknowledgement that in the early and late innings you're probably giving a couple PAs away.

There is a school of thought that a hitter like O'Neill needs regular ABs to keep his swing sharp and perform. I'm philosophically opposed to that idea. The only guys that DON'T benefit from regular ABs are HoFers and complete scrubs. 80% of the guys on major league rosters could stand to benefit from getting 20+ PAs/week. But y'know what? That's not a reason to keep sending a guy out there that isn't performing. You earn your ABs in this league and if you can't earn them, I'm not gonna send you out there - full stop.

Now that's not to say that I don't think he deserves more time - he absolutely does. And maybe more exposure will help him get over the lousy ABs early in games when a guy like him could do so much to set a tone. Fowler damn sure isn't doing anything to keep the job.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14200465)

Thanks for the info. Much obliged.

Not enough evidence to back up my eyeball test theory. But, he's still a better option than Fowler and if he doesn't start, pull Ozuna late in the game for his defense.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14199983)

Additionally - Carlson took Kershaw deep tonight. Hes gonna be gooooooooood

Gorman has 19 Homer’s as a pro before he turns 19 years old.

In his first five games in Peoria, he's 10-for-21 with as many extra-base hits (six) as strikeouts (six) and .542 on-base percentage. He's slugging 1.000.

In his first 68 games in the minors, Gorman has hit .306/.393/.605 with 52 RBIs. He has 82 strikeouts and 79 hits in 258 at-bats.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 14200490)

The reliever information was fascinating to me.

Against relievers as a starter, he's garbage. Against relievers as a sub, he's outstanding.

That means situational deployment for him is MASSIVE. If he's a starter and the opposing manager gets to dictate the terms of engagement (i.e. he gets to put the reliever in to face O'Neill and gets to choose who that reliever is), then O'Neill can be picked apart. But when Shildt gets to dictate terms - keep him on the bench until the right matchup comes along - then he's really effective.

So it's an argument to keep him on the bench because he's a higher variance player. And your other chess move in that sequence then becomes putting Martinez in RF as the starter because Martinez really isn't high variance. At least not as much as O'Neill.

So you start Martinez and look for your spots with O'Neill.

And you DFA Dexter Fowler.

(pleasepleasepleaseplease let that be why you called a 3p press conference today, Cardinals. Pleeeeeeaaaaaaase.....)

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 14200840)

Yeah I saw somewhere that he's one of like 11 guys to have this many homers in his first 70 games as a pro. I don't even think it was limited to teenagers but it could've been.

And as a 19 yr old in full-season ball, no less. Man that's an impressive start. I could live without the 25% K rate but the 10% walk rate will play if the power holds. That gives you 150 Ks and 60 BBs over a season...eh, okay. If he's a 35 HR hitter with that kind of plate discipline, it's roughly what Eugenio Suarez did last season.

And Suarez is a credible defender on his good days; not a good one by any stretch.

If Gorman can continue on a similar arc and make the bigs by 22 as a player roughly on par with the 2018 version of Eugenio Suarez, you gotta consider that a W. Especially considering that he'd be doing it from the L side (where we badly need it) and in a park less favorable to hitters than GAB where Suarez hits.

If he's gonna step forward into real anchor tenant status he's gonna need one of 2 things; a reduction in K-BB rates (maybe something more akin to Rhys Hoskins?) or a HUGE step forward defensively. I mean that's essentially what Matt Champan was last season; elite defensive 3b with good power and some swing/miss in his game with tolerable BB rates.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14200848)

(pleasepleasepleaseplease let that be why you called a 3p press conference today, Cardinals. Pleeeeeeaaaaaaase.....)

Given their track record of importance of their announced press conferences....... probably to announce they have a new nacho cheese supplier at the stadium.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 14200919)

Given their track record of importance of their announced press conferences....... probably to announce they have a new nacho cheese supplier at the stadium.

Oh of course.

Blues are getting too much press so Dollar Bill needs to get their names back in the paper. "Guys, we're sorry about that Harper thing...no, stop, wait - PLEASE GET OFF BASEBALL REFERENCE WE KNOW ABOUT BRYCE HARPER AND DEXTER FOWLER!!!!.....okay, you're back - good. Now let me tell you about the new official shoelace sponsor of the St. Louis Cardinals..."

At best its an extension for Bader/Flaherty. More likely is that Reyes was picking up his bags when he got to Memphis and his arm physically detached from his body.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14200925)

At best its an extension for Bader/Flaherty. More likely is that Reyes was picking up his bags when he got to Memphis and his arm physically detached from his body.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Also hearing it’s not Michael Wacha or Harrison Bader. Sorry for the process of elimination, but it’s all I’ve got for now. <a href="https://t.co/MktZ9EH3od">https://t.co/MktZ9EH3od</a></p>— Mark Saxon (@markasaxon) <a href="https://twitter.com/markasaxon/status/1116062391928786946?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2019</a></blockquote>
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