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So no, I did not underrate where they would stand in the Cardinals pecking order. Even if they were 2 and 4 as you claim, you still aren't getting Soto without giving up your best. No team is. |
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With Kiley McDaniel and Kevin Goldstein moving on, main Fangraphs prospect evaluator Eric Longenhagen has minor league experience with Lehigh Valley, not with a MLB scouting department. He's great at what he does, I will admit that. Baseball America has had John Manuel, Chris Kline and Josh Boyd move onto baseball ops. Kline and Boyd are scouting directors for two teams. I should have mentioned this earlier, the Cardinals ARE the fit for the Nationals. There might not be another franchise that can match their talent that's in on Soto. Maybe the Dodgers but it's not like there's a can't miss headliner with Cartaya, Pages, Miller and Vargas. Cartaya is the closest thing and he comes with risk by nature of being a catcher. Cardinals submit without Walker in a text. Rizzo replies "We're going to need Walker to do this." Cardinals counter with Walker and one of Yepez/Burleson/Liberatore not included in some proposal. It's not that big of a deal as you make it because the Nationals know the Cardinals have the goods. |
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The Cardinals are only THE fit if you are one of those guys that believes Carlson would still be looked at like a 60FV prospect instead of a guy with over 1000 PA's in the majors that looks like a merely average player/borderline platoon player with some of the worst hard contact and barrel numbers in the league that's getting worse every season. The Padres can offer more than the Cardinals. The Yankees can offer more than the Cardinals. The Rays can offer more than the Cardinals. The Giants can offer more than the Cardinals. The Dodgers can offer more than the Cardinals. And while I dont think the Nationals would trade him to the Mets, they could offer more than the Cardinals. The Blue Jays can offer more than the Cardinals. Now... if the Nationals insist on a team taking on a bad contract while also giving up their best prospects you can probably scratch off half of those teams and only leave the Yankees, Dodgers, and maybe the Giants. The Cardinals could do it but they have shown absolutely no willingness to take on money and then dish out the kind of money it would take to extend Soto in this century, so asking them to give up the pool of prospects it would take seems far fetched, imo. EDIT: Might as well add the Red Sox to the list of teams that could offer more than the Cardinals too. It's the complete opposite move from the direction they have been taking, but its Juan Soto and they also have the financial means to lock him up long term. |
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Seems a bit steep.
Carlson is a JAG, imo, at least so far. But he still has 4 years of control and if hes going to get you right around the average WAR for an everyday player you can probably pencil in 10 WAR for the remaining 4+ years of control. And if I look at Happ who is probably going to be around $21M in total arbitration money, Carlson will make a little bit more and probably be around $25M til he hits his FA years. That still leaves Carlson at like $30-40M in surplus, depending on whatever you value WAR at. Carlson + Walker probably allows you to start going further down the prospect list and filling in the rest with the Burleson's and McGreevy's of the system. I think Carlson + Walker + someone like Tink Hence would be pretty comparable to the top 3 the Marlins got for Cabrera. Then just fill in the rest with whatever lower level A ballers get the job done. I just dont know if the Nationals would be interested in Carlson since his clock has already started and he's only got 1 pre arb year left. |
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I think the reason that deal is that heavy is that Corbin's not included in it. But if, as is rumored, the Mets are said to be making a hard push to drive the price up (even if the Nats won't deal him in the division) and the Cardinals have that offer on their desk right this very second, I think I'd click accept. Especially if there's a negotiation window and they can confirm that an extension will get done. Carlson proving himself capable of playing a plus CF is a massive boost to his trade value, though. And his value to the Cardinals. While I think he's been very disappointing offensively, if he's a plus CF, he has a 2 WAR baseline. And the swing IS there. The approach IS there. It's just something in his timing or pitch recognition that's keeping him from being a damn good player. There's a lot of talent in there. If the Cardinals can hold onto him somehow and effectively use him to replace Bader in CF, then they won't have to extend Bader into some pretty iffy years when his deal expires in 2024 and he's due for an extension that starts at 30 yrs old. I hate hate HATE the idea of losing Winn, but some folks don't think his bat will ever be an asset at the MLB level. If giving up Winn allows us to hold Carlson as the long-term CF with Soto in RF (TON in LF unless he's a flash in the pan, in which case I think I'd put Gorman out there with Donovan at 2b) then it's a bullet I'd take. Just looking at Cardinals social media, too many Cardinals fans do not understand just how stupid good Juan Soto is. They're driving me completely insane. |
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Liberatore is looking more and more like a 4/5 type. McGreevy is probably the same. |
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Cabrera got back the top 3 of the Tigers system and I dont recall where Maybin and Miller were ranked but I've read they were both thought of in that top 20 prospect range and then De La Cruz was throwing 100 mph. Hence is 19 and is throwing mid 90's with a feel for pitching as he's walking less than 3 per 9 in A ball. If I'm someone looking at pitching from the Cardinals he's a guy I'm looking at. |
And man, I am TIRED of Cardinals fans online being worried about spending Bill Dewitt's money.
Cardinals payroll has gone DOWN since 2018 as revenues have continued to climb. DeWitt is sitting on 2 billion in franchise equity. This is a team that should be sitting in the 6-8 range for overall payroll and not 12-15. By my math that is about $30-40 million in 'dry powder'. If DeWitt has, behind the scenes, advised Mozeliak that his expenditures on washed up has-beens has not given him the confidence to expand payroll...well I guess he should probably fire John Mozeliak, but I digress. If that is the case, Soto is the kind of player you unquestionably and without hesitation expand payroll to secure. Cardinals fans out there saying "we don't need Soto!" a) Are fools because EVERY team needs a HoF bat. B) Haven't been paying much attention to the OF production of this team this year. C) Need to stop worrying about BDWs pocketbook and start DEMANDING that he open it. When you say dumb shit like "Spend Soto's money to build up the bullpen and starting rotation" you're giving him the opening to do exactly what he's doing. No, you don't spend Soto's money to build up the pitching staff. You spend Soto's money on Soto. Then you spend Bill DeWitt's money on the damn pitching staff. And let him know that if he doesn't spend it on the team, he's going to be essentially spending it on empty seats as ticket revenues decline. He HAS to be willing to give back to this ballclub and if he's not going to do it for the best young lefty since Ted !@#$ing Williams, he shouldn't own one of baseballs marquee franchises anymore. |
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Ugh. That would sting biggly. And who the hell plays CF in 2 years? Maybe. Probably. If it's on my desk I don't know how I could write a mock lineup with Goldy - Soto - Arenado at 2-3-4 and not pull that trigger. That's getting back to the MV3 heydays of Pujols - Edmonds - Rolen. I don't think I'm willing to take Corbin back in that deal. (I'm lying. I'd move heaven and earth and sell my organs to get Soto on this team) |
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Which is why I just do not understand the 'we don't need Soto crowd...' |
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:evil: |
YOU GO TO HELL AND YOU DIE!!!
$26 million/yr for the entire prime of a HoF player....{shakes head} |
So Bader and or O'Neill have no value to the Nationals? I'd rather have Carlson play CF and Soto in right.
You keep them where is Yepez or the next outfielder going to play? |
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