Weren’t you just complaining about him taking Flaherty out?

the thing you should have realized by now is that usually on drugs. :rolleyes:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Just how we practice! <a href="https://t.co/d4DFd4KWKC">pic.twitter.com/d4DFd4KWKC</a></p>&mdash; Cafe jr (@Cafejr40) <a href="https://twitter.com/Cafejr40/status/1026217473899745280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 5, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The Cardinals swept the Cubs under Matheny this year.

The Cubs have been playing shit baseball since the AS break. The starting pitching remains terrible and the offense is struggling to score runs without the other team gifting them runs through a series of errors.

They just split a 4 game series against the Padres who had lost something like 11 games in a row.

this sounds like a fan who thought they’d own the division for the next 5 years and is now hearing footsteps?:Poke:

The footsteps are coming from Milwaukee, not St. Louis.

Your team is still full of mediocre filler with the only substance losing their battle with father time.

maybe this year......but your goin to need to
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/ppy0hwAWThM/maxresdefault.jpg

Like I said earlier, better hope a Mike Trout falls in your lap come draft day. Your GM is perfectly happy with 3rd/4th place NL Central baseball. 81 wins is enough to sell out the stadium and keep the boss happy.

Ownership, not Mo.

It's both.

Ownership isn't the one targeting Tommy Pham out of all players to be your big trade deadline deal.

already happened. Gorman.
http://gifimage.net/wp-content/uploa...mic-gif-11.gif

By the time he's ready to make a big league impact that 5 year window will be up.

you have been posting in here all year. You should be fully aware that I’m the resident homer and I’ve been saying we suck. I’m just trolling you man.

I know you are trolling, but its fun.

Would you settle for a Kris Bryant?

Because my sweet baboo, Nolan Gorman, is kicking some ass right now in rookie ball

Just a reminder of one of the most telling Mike Matheny quotes of all time:

For all the stuff he said after getting fired about how much he loved managing and how he never thought he could enjoy something more than playing until he got that job, I don't buy it for a second. That miserable bastard looked by all outward appearances to HATE that job.

And it was evident in the Bataan Death March manner in which the guys played the game.

Except if he pans out we might get our version by age 21 instead of 23.

Four HRs in the last week alone

Kris Bryant didnt really fall, though. The Cubs tanked to rebuild at the top of the draft when they were in the same position the Cardinals are in now, something the Cardinals are to prideful to do... Cardinals way and all.

You'll need more than a Kris Bryant though. As good as he is, he is not very clutch. The last 2 seasons he's been at best a league average hitter with RISP while posting sub .700 OPS numbers with 2 outs and RISP or when the game is late and close.

I guess you could make the argument that teams are pitching around him, if you believe teams want to put men on for Rizzo, but then you compare him to the truly great hitters and they still carry very good numbers in those situations.

It is a bit of stretch even for a Cubbie fan to say the Cards are in the same position as the Cubs were.

The Cubs were 75-87, 71-91, and 61-91 (a .426 "winning percentage") in the 3 years prior to drafting Bryant. The Cards had a combined .553 winning percentage (no losing years) the past 3 seasons prior to drafting Gorman.

You fail to understand that prior to drafting Kris Bryant the Cubs began selling off the aging core they carried through the 2000's. Something the Cards wont do, as I already explained.

The Cardinals are trying to board up a leaky hull. The Cubs blew it up with dynamite.

The Cards have been to 10 World Series in my lifetime or roughly once every 5 years. I'm guessing that is a tad more frequent than your experience. :)

Talk about an aging core. Your starting pitchers are not only mediocre their average age is now 31. The youngest is 29. You no longer have any real prospects on the farm of any real value to turn over in trades. Your best hope in the next few years of replacing the codgers you have on the hill right now is choosing wisely in the free agent market and hoping you don't land another Yu debacle.

We have 9 young pitchers to chose from as starters (not counting Tyson Ross, because we don't know how they will use him and likely not a piece moving forward anyway). Our AVERAGE age of our starters is 25...and we still have a shot at the wild card. The future is hardly a dim one. Mo could still mess it up, but no reason to blow it up yet.

O’Neill to the 10 day DL with a groin.

The Cuban born Adonis Garcia up from AAA. I thought he wasn’t doing very good this year but the google machine tells us that in July he started hitting good. After a visit from Budaska to fix his swing.

I was high on him going into this year. He has tools you can't teach (arm, speed). As you said he got off to a rough start, but apparently has found it again and really took off the last month. He is hitting for power and not striking out as much. The dude can flat fly and gives you versatility in that he is another one that can play center or either corner.

I anxious to see if he can translate up here.

I'm surprised in some regards it wasn't Lane Thomas because I think they have to add him to the 40 man or lose him after the season. I could be wrong, but I think that was the case. It could just mean they will do that later, and want to see him get regular reps at AAA. He is another possible sleeper who could be a keeper.

He's been murdering the ball lately; PCL player of the month in July.

That said - he didn't need to be added to the 40 man to stay out of the Rule 5 this offseason and the Cardinals will have yet another roster crunch heading into the Rule 5 draft.

Lane Thomas, OTOH, would have needed to be added to be protected. So they were likely to add him to the 40 man in the off-season anyway - why not do it now and call him up instead? Then you get JAG through the offseason and past the Rule 5 without worrying about losing him. If you need to add him to the 40 next spring because he's played his way onto the team, you do it then.

They essentially just undid the roster flexibility they gained through the Mercado trade. They replaced Mercado with 2 guys who didn't need to be on the 40 and it appeared to be planning for the '18 offseason and Rule 5 draft. Now they've used that spot up again.

That sends a loud signal to me that they're cutting Fowler outright or trading him for whatever salary relief they can get. Gregerson as well. There's just not a way for them to protect guys like Helsley, Fernandez and Schrock if they keep those 2. They're going to be tight against it either way and I suspect that could lead to them leaving Fernandez and Wadye Infante exposed. Thomas will be a close call but I think that's why they sent him to AAA - they need to know if he's worth protecting.

They won't take any chances with Cabrera or Helsley; unlikely with Schrock either given the lack of middle-infield depth and advanced lefty sticks in the high minors. For the life of me I cannot figure out of Montero or Urias need to be protected but I think Montero does; he'll definitely get added if so. Derian Gonzalez may end up out-righted to clear the spot after he struggled in the AAA this year and had to be sent down.

I just feel like they put themselves back into a numbers crunch come December when the Rule 5 starts up...

You sure you're thinking of the right guy?

JAG isn't a burner by any stretch. He has a CANNON in right, but if you're putting him in center you done ****ed up, IMO...

Among our 'high level' OFers, he was probably the least athletic. Bader, O'Neill, Arozarena, Mercado and Thomas are all better runners than he is. Moreover, he absolutely has some strikeout issues; chases too many pitches (though he punishes strikes).

He's probably an average runner at this level. Nothing like watching Martinez try to play RF or anything like that, but defense isn't a strength either.

**** you - I started my post first, you just typed less.

Like you, I'm almost certain Thomas will need to be added and I'd have just gone ahead and called him up.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/DgCY_o1SR3o" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

I saw him run at spring training, he looked very quick getting down the line and going first to third. I guess it could have been an illusion, but he looked quicker and faster than Bader. Maybe I had my "Wong" glasses on that make you look faster than you really are.

A couple of the scouting reports on Garcia:

One mentions a comparison to Brian Jordan...that would be nice. Checking his Memphis stats he has 10 steals in 12 attempts. Both articles do mention his speed as an asset. I guess we will get to see soon.

https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2018/2/...-adolis-garcia

https://247sports.com/mlb/cardinals/...tati-74923213/

He is intriguing for sure, and already has been featured on "Top Plays" for a catch in Springfield earlier this year.

Mo may not be able to judge a FA worth a shit but if anything else, the man overzealously guards his 40 man roster. Holds on to players way beyond the time he should have let them go. I just don’t see Mo leaving anyone of value exposed.

There are more trades coming this off season. I’m assuming we are going to try to bundle players up for a better player. That would take care of any rule 5 or 40 man roster issues.

He did it twice in a row with Perdomo and Cordoba. After they lost Cordoba, Moe was sufficiently cowed that he actually acknowledged it and noted that they would be hiring someone to ensure that those sorts of things don't happen in the future.

Seriously - they had to hire someone to make sure Mozeliak stopped ****ing up the 40 man a few years ago.

He's risk averse but he most assuredly isn't savvy with his 40 man.

I’d completely forgotten about that one a few years ago. Seems to be a basic part of running a front office.

Yeah, he's pissed me off with stuff like that for years. Exposing Diaz to waivers because he wanted Dan Johnson up a day before he ended up clearing the roster spot by putting a guy on the 60 day. Losing Eduardo Sanchez to the Cubs after an outstanding rookie season because he wanted to activate someone the day BEFORE he was scheduled to pitch instead of the day of (again, a 60 day DL spot ended up opening up a place).

I don't care for how he burns through options either; it makes problems for dudes like Tui later on in their development.

There are little things he does with his roster that aren't likely to ever matter a great deal but they're casual and reckless.

yeah that was my point. I doubt we are going to have 40 man or rule 5 issues. Not because of Mo’s talents but, Mo being a frozen in fear turd.

Ross to the bullpen.

Hmmm....that's probably the best way to get genuine performance out of him. The spin rate on his fastball is still elite so if it adds some velocity it could play well up in the zone. Get him back to 94-95 mph in short stints and maybe that also puts some tilt back in his slider.

Worse gambles to take...

He's been horrible for a bit as a starter. You look at his season numbers and you wonder why a team would simply let him walk away, but then you look at his K/9 slip to 6.8 in June and then 5.8 in July with a near 9 ERA and then it starts to make sense.

Probably the best you'll get out of him is in the bullpen if there's anything left.

Washington Nationals

1B Matt Adams 257pa 18hr 900ops 138wRC+
OF Bryce Harper 476pa 26hr 875ops 130wRC+

I’d be comfortable giving Bryce a long term deal. He has enough history. Maybe because of the down year, he may consider St.Louis?

I suspect Bryce cost himself $100M with his dogshit year. Now, maybe a 10/300


Nats won't even retain him, since they have younger cheaper and, date we say, better options (Soto, Robles)

I’d be happy to give him 10/300 as a fan. No way this is his new normal.

Here is a section on Carpenter in an article on the Athletic.

I figured I would post it as penance and part of my meal of crow.

All you have to know about how much Harper is about to get paid is when people start talking about .875 OPS being a dog shit year for the guy.

i’m with Prison Bitch, I think before this season he was set to get $400 million. I think he gets $300 million now. $300 million is still big pile of money.

Holland signed with the Nats. They play a four game set in St. Louis next week. Please roll that one who sucks the penis out for one of those games.

Any team that offers him less than what Stanton got is going to be left holding their dicks.

Yeah. He's 31st/158 regulars in wRC+, behind the power bats of Nick Markakis (!), David Peralta and Brandon Nimmo (who?)

How do their careers match up to Harper at 25? Just curious.

Not sure. How did Greg Holland's career match up with the others you could've signed instead for far less $?

Ya because their situations are even remotely similar.

His metrics are all going the wrong way. He still mashes FB but struggles now vs curves/sliders. His contact rate plunged from 85% to 77% of swings. His exit velo and HR distance are both down.


Defensively he's the worst RF by a mile. Worst arm, worst range, everything. Dexter Fowler saves twice the runs Harper does. Think about that!


He may yet become the monster the media and fans falsely believe he is, but if this was his audition for $400M, wow did he show stage fright.

How do you figure he has the worst arm? He was clocked at 98mph on a throw to home to nail Kosma at the plate last year from decent depth in RF last year.

His metrics though are surprising, considering he has had years where his range was an asset. He is fast enough...it makes you wonder about how much he cares about his defense.

If Harper keeps up the current pace this year he will have had sub 2 WAR seasons in 3 of the last 5 years with 2 being in past 3. Still only 25 so will get paid based on some potential from his complete badass season but expect he had cost himself some money. Only takes one team to get paid though.

He isn't keeping a current pace though. He's got a 1.000 OPS over the last month, 1.100 for the 2nd half so far.

So should the Cardinals offer Harper 10years/$300? Or will he get multiple offers at that AAV and length and level and we need to better that offer?

Or should we just stay away from him and spending that kind of long term money?

Out lead off hitter has 30 HR and out cleanup guy is basically Ichiro.

lets be honest though, the only reason he is hitting lead off is because every time they try to move him out of that spot, he immediately falls off a cliff and hits .200 with no power.

And Ozuna is a singles machine.

you may have been right. He’d been better as a starter. But, not $1.4 million better. :rolleyes:

According to Ken Rosenthal, new Cards pitcher Tyson Ross has a clause in his contract for $200k bonuses for each start from start 20 to start 29. He's currently at start 22.

If he doesn't start the rest of the year, this trade could cost him $1.4 million.

Y'know, I'm not sure how bad a hitter Bader would need to be against righties to NOT be the starting CFer next season.....but it would be really ****ing bad.

Lord can that guy play defense.

Everyone wanted us to give up the farm for Kevin Kiermaier - folks, we may already have him...

I don’t know how defensive WAR is calculated. Doesn’t matter with Bader, I and everyone else can see that Bader can ball out in CF.

Bader got a great jump, used his speed and made the play. Pham doesn’t get to that ball in the 9th inning. Now it’s 1st and 3rd with one out with a 1 run lead on the road. Carp and Dejong may have got the HR but Bader saved the game.

He was considered to have plus speed coming out of college, but I thought it would be more in line with a Grichuk type of speed (good speed, not necessarily a burner). However he has been clocked in the top 10 this year and one of only a handful at 30 feet per second. It is interesting looking at the list below (by the way, ONeill checks in at over 29 feet per second). Pujols is dead last, with Molina not far behind, yet both are smart base runners.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard

yeah Molina and Pujols prove that it’s not always speed. Pham was fast enough to steal bases but couldn’t do it worth a shit.

Did we have the MOTOB we have been wanting since Pujlos fall to us in this years draft?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Am told by a source that <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#STLCards</a> are promoting Nolan Gorman, their top pick in this year&#39;s draft who has been on a tear at Johnson City, to the Peoria Chiefs today.</p>&mdash; Rob Rains (@RobRains) <a href="https://twitter.com/RobRains/status/1027175650694705152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 8, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The way you know that defensive WAR means next to nothing is just by watching how teams treat them in the market. Teams aren't paying for dWAR and the reason is that they have FAR better information than we do. More and more of it is making its way to the public through MLBAM; they just keep snapping up more and more advanced metrics and making them publicly available - it's a smart way to make the game more accessible for some (though more 'technical' in ways that bore others).

Most teams have an in-house unit that does little more than monitor defense. They don't necessarily attempt to create a 'catch-all' stat that tells them what guys are doing, they sit there and go through each game with things like Statcast to determine if a ball could've/should've been caught in a situation and how it actually impacted that play.

Defense is about the last thing to have made its way to the masses in a digestible format. BR and Fangraphs still don't have a system that works well in sample sizes under 2-3 seasons or specifically enough to give you more than general 'tiers' of players.

As for Bader's play specifically - nobody was on base. And there's no way to say Deitrich still gets a hit with a runner on and 1 out vs. nobody on and 2 outs. I agree - Pham doesn't catch that (I don't think Bader got a GREAT jump, though; his catchup speed and perfect route made up for it though), but it's just a flare single even if he doesn't. It wouldn't have been that damaging.

Still a fantastic play but not as critical as Carpenter's homer and definitely not as big as DeJong's. Hell, Yadi jumping on that bunt was just as important and a damn nice play in its own right.

Tom Boswell (longtime wapo sportswriter) said back in March that nobody will get 300+ anymore, the Stanton deal was it. A Nats player said it too. And that was before his 2018 faceplant.


Also, the Cards would have to give up what he claims is an extra 50-75M in draft picks and intl bonus pool based on the huge value they brought the Nats - who signed all their top prospects from the Dominican for like 400K combined.


Nats already have Easton-Soto-Robles so Harper is going somewhere. Half of MLB is tanking anyway, so who even bids?


1. Asstros
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Dodgers


Might as well make him an offer. He won't be getting many.

Really like seeing this- he was crushing rookie A. Let's get him tested a little more before the offseason to see what adjustments he needs to make.

With Manny, Harper and Kershaw set to hit FA, we shall see if $300 million is a bridge too far.

I hope that your info is true. If so, I love Manny way better, he is the best player in baseball not named Trout. He would be a great fit with us. In another era, it would be a slam dunk. We should offer Manny $300+ million or thrown in another $20-$25 million more than whatever another team is offering up to $350 million to get Manny.

I like Manny a lot. There's no way he's the best player in baseball who isn't Trout. Betts is better and that's not even arguable. Jose Ramirez at this point has to be in that conversation. Lindor's all-around ability and unexpected power puts him in that conversation and I love Bregman's future.

Machado being a shitty shortstop changes that entire conversation as well. I mean if he's just a 3b (and really, he's probably just a 3b) why is he any better than Arenado? If he's a 3b, Arenado is a better ballplayer. Hell, if he's a 3b is Machado obviously better than Eugenio Suarez? Now granted, that's an extreme example to make a point - even I don't believe he's not better than Suarez, but it's a lot closer than you think.

Now comes the dirty little secret - Machado MAY have been a product of Camden Yards to boot. He's always had severe home/rd splits and he's been a punch and judy hitter since he got to LA. Manny's offensive game is predicated on power and if leaving Camden makes him a 25 HR guy as opposed to a 35 HR guy and his glove keeps him at 3b - he ISN'T better than Suarez at that point.

Now I'll say this - the season I thought was going to be his leap forward into perennial MVP status was 2016 and he didn't demonstrate a massive power split that season. So there's a talent level he has that he's occasionally demonstrated an ability to tap on the road as well. But for the major ity of his career he's shown some pretty significant and alarming power splits that make sense given Camden's status as a frequent launching pad.

Maybe if he just gets to a neutral stadium things will sort themselves out but I think he knows better. I think he'll go to Philly where he can take aim at a plus HR park and get those numbers back up for a HoF surge. Dodgers Stadium is going to get in his head if it hasn't already.

Yes, like this move...slugging over .660 let's get another barometer test heading into the off season.

The cards are one of the few teams that can justify being in the FA market. They don't have tons of LT dead weight and they have plenty of $...and they're competitive. The 2-tier system we have now makes it pointless for either the shitty (KC, White Sux) or good (Indians) to ever sign anyone.


Dodgers-RedSox-Spanks-Giants-Texas-Ana-Mets literally have ZERO incentive to sign any of these guys. They're the big spenders aren't they? They're either runaway winners or rebuilding.


ASStros are guaranteed to get one. Harper or Machado. Verlander 28M comes off the books in 2020, Springer a FA in 2020, Reddick gone 2019. It's a virtual certainty.

They aren't going after Machado, not with Bregman, Correa and Altuve on the IF. None of those guys is moving to 1b/DH.

It's hard to wrap your head around just how much money Philly is going to have for the foreseeable future. It's not impossible that they could sign BOTH guys. Even with Arrieta and Santana, their financial commitments for the future are pretty minimal. Nola's a long way from free agency as well.

Their cable deal is enormous and is just starting to ramp up. They absolutely have $100 million/yr to spend for the next 3-5 years if they want to spend it.

Sounds good to me.
———————————
The Cardinals drafted Gorman, a lefthanded-hitting third baseman, with the No. 19 pick in June's MLB Draft. The 18-year-old from Phoenix slugged 11 home runs in 37 games with Johnson City.

"I've got a pretty natural upward angle in my swing, so we haven't really worried about launch angle or anything," Gorman said the evening of the draft.

MLB.com ranks Gorman the No. 100 prospect in baseball, saying he may have the most raw power of anyone from this year's draft class. He averaged one strikeout a game with Johnson City but had a .440 on base percentage and was slugging .662.

"We were thrilled the way the board worked out," scouting director Randy Flores said on draft day. "You can't believe (a player), lefthanded like that, as young as he is ... was available to us."

Arenado’s stats away from Coors field look like shit to me.

we are in our 2nd year of our own $2 Billion cable TV contract. The Cards have money to spend.

That's why Philly is my 2.

ASS can just bounce Bregman to The OF Gordo-style. Didn't know Machado has bad metrics this year, surely that's an anomaly.

Atlanta is a big threat too. Best system in the game if Acuna was still Party of it. Most of the $$$$$ will be spent by the NL clubs next 2-3 years which is a downside for STL. Wash will replace Harper dough with someone.

He's had about an .860 OPS on the road away from Coors. And yeah, that's certainly not as good as his Coors numbers, but those are far from shit. Moreover, unlike Camden, I think Coors hitters have a Coors hangover on the road.

Pitches behave differently in Coors than they do elsewhere. There's less snap, less movement and opponents have worse command because they're not used to how the ball works there. Everything about hitting in Coors is like a video game set to easy level. Then when they get on the road, everything goes back to normal and hitters have to make a pretty significant adjustment to the pitches simply being nastier.

So I think Coors hitters have worse road numbers than they'd have if they simply played at any other ballpark in baseball as their home park. Camden doesn't give that effect. Camden doesn't effect the way pitches behave - only they way they travel off the bat and really only whether or not they're homeruns vs. loud outs.

So if Arenado's home stats are, say, 10% better than they would be were he a Cardinal, his road stats are 5% worse than they'd be, IMO. He still comes out ahead to be sure, but when speaking directly to the splits, there's a penalty on his road numbers.

Machado, OTOH, got a boost in his HR numbers from hitting in Camden but I don't think he gets a penalty when he's on the road because pitches are coming in the same way as they did in Baltimore - they're just not going out as easily. So if he gets a 5% home boost that suddenly evaporates, unlike a Coors hitter I don't think he'll get to make any of that up through more normalized road hitting.