Well, I'm glad that YOU'RE convinced that Smythe will be a franchise QB, but there's virtually no one else that agrees.

That's all well and good, but we don't have the #2 defense.

Smith is going to have to do more than just excel at timing routes with one WR.

And for all his "robotic goodness," it didn't help him a lick on third-down for his entire career.

If we can't convert third downs our significantly less-than-#2-defense is going to wilt.

I have no reason to believe he's not that guy, but I also think that guy isn't nearly what he appeared to be without the significant advantages afforded him by that defense.

That's why I think this team wins eight or nine games next year.

I also think the odds of the Chiefs moving off that pick are overly optimistic, but I do agree with you in this sense: the one thing that will keep them out of purgatory is whether or not they can trade down from 1.1 and turn that trade down into a 2014 first to pair with their own as ammunition.

We will never know now will we? That is a shame. Shame for this franchise and fanbase not to get the opportunity to watch a QB blossom in front of our eyes. Shame not to take a chance on a young QB prospect that could take us above anything we have had for the last thirty or even fourty years.

I know the dream is dead and buried, but...2009 Eagles

McNabb (2nd overall)
Kolb (2nd round pick)
Vick (reasonable vet contract)

I know, it's an unhealthy obsession.

Smith (first overall)
Smith (second round pick)
Daniels (reasonable vet contract)

That guy is not going to be enough if, again, our defense is not up to snuff.

Don't forget he's playing Phil Rivers and Peyton Manning twice a year now, instead of Tarvaris Jackson, Sam Bradford and and John Skelton.

There's six wins (and a tie) out of his glorious 20 right there.

Yeah, the 3rd down efficiency remains puzzling to me. I suspect we'll find out why he's struggling in short order.

My guess is that teams are dropping into short zones on him and if there are a shitload of guys dropping into coverage zones, it's awfully tough to find a guy breaking open. In that instance you really do have little choice but to fire the damn ball into a hole.

Not sure if that's the problem. If it is, I'm not sure how to deal with it. It's definitely the part of his game that is most disturbing to me and I can neither diagnose or treat it. At that point I just have to hope that a guy that does nothing but live and breathe football is going to do a better job of spotting a solution than I will.

We're not drafting Geno and telling him to be the #3 QB.

We've officially crossed the great barrier, landed on the planet sha-ka-ree, and there is no real QB God, just a fake-ass Alex Smith.

They drop in short zones because he can't take the top off the defense. That's also why he's so efficient on those early downs. They guard against the deeper pass, giving up the shorter routes as a concession.

Unless he can consistently make the passes he made against the Saints in 2011 he'll face the same issues that Chad Pennington did.

I'd imagine the great majority of Alex's success on timing throws was on first down, when everyone was expecting that team to run.

In obvious passing situations, he's far less effective, and that explains the crap third-down conversion percentage.

I bet there are some grisly splits for that data.

Where does the defense have to be?

Top 10? Because with a strong #2 CB and/or a legitimate pass-rusher on the line, I think this team can get there. If you put Sheldon Richardson on that line with Sean Smith as the #2 CB and Robinson at FS, you have a top 10 defense with relative ease, IMO.

If the Chiefs put together a top 10 defense and Reid coaxes 95% of what Harbaugh was able to get out of Smith, isn't that a pretty damn good team? Especially if Avery stays on the field and Bowe is Bowe?

I'm not saying it will happen, but it's also not nearly as farfetched as so many folks are saying. This team can be pretty damn good.

I'd also add that not having Vernon Davis is probably going to be a bigger problem than people think.

While we have Bowe, when your QB can't threaten past 20 yards, WRs become far less effective.

Without the additional threat of a freak athletic TE controlling the hash, and absolutely changing coverages, defenses are going to defend Alex Smith differently here, I'd wager. Particularly in the red zone.

For team Andy Reid I expect us now to pass on first down and I'm sure teams will get use to that and figure our pass run pass punt out.

One thing to consider: Despite Reid's QB prowess, how many games does he cost his team with his egregious clock management?