Good thoughts in this thread guys!

I'd say I'm on the side of Stewie when it comes to economic outlook. I am not teh smart, but I think that the economy hasn't been allowed to correct itself with the fed trying to prop it up. I'm all for the fed doing small things to take the edge off the bottom, but I believe they have been trying to reverse corrections, and that they have also reached the extent of their pull on the economy until a correction occurs. IIRC it is called stagflation, but I don't have time to look it up. Some other folks I read have been suggesting similar corrections, but their analysis is based on cyclical stuff that I don't understand well. JMHO

Keep up the good discussion!

Well, this thread certainly has taken a turn for the depressing.......

My internship search is going bad enough, I don't need to hear more about how shitty the economy is on here. :doh!:

just for the record.....im piss drunk off "strongbow" :p

however, while the economic outlook is down right sh1tty.....there are some seriously good opp's in the works. wait till you feel the market has just about reached its bottom (or the USD for that matter) then BUY mother F***ing BUY. :toast:

stagflation = recession plus inflation. no need to look it up, thats my lamens answer. :)

i think the fed is makign things worse but thats just my HO. regardless, great discussion :clap: its good to have one without worrying about being flamed to death ;)

Would like to know how the outlook would look for Garmin (GRMN)

Don't buy any ILA.

well heres my two cents..

#1 YoY they've had roughly an 80% increase in NET INCOME.
#2 looking at there books tells me to that there spending a lot of monies (investing and taking on some debt)

both of those to me look very promising as i understand that companies need to spend money to make it and money sitting around the house wont grow. Also we all noticed that Garmin is doing some serious adding on to there current location (assuming you drive in Olathe)

#3 given the state of the economy and auto sales i view GPS as a "want" and not a "need" i think this year to say the least will be lack luster as they continue to skid towards a 52 week low....

short term investment for GRMN = BAD as i dont think theyve bottomed out just yet.
long term (depending on when we hit trough in the comming recession...) = GREAT

grmn has been a strong company almost like clockwork however stagflation begins to take it toal.

p.s. yes i understand that theres way more involved in picking stocks then the above mentioned items....however im not into investing and can only offer what i know from work/life/class experience. also its midnight and im f'n tired so forgive my lazyness :huh:

Hope no one had big money in Bear Stearns.....yikes.

A buddy of mine is supposed to intern with them this summer, I bet he was shitting bricks with the news on Friday.

I keep thinking we've hit the bottom on financials and it's time to get back in, but then more bad news comes out.

Remember recessions are a normal part of the economic cycle and they happen on average about every five years. Recessions are also relatively short averaging a little over 10 months; we have been in one since October. Many people say that once you know your in a recession it is already over. In times like these I am reminded of a Warren Buffet quote "when people are fearful, I am greedy"

The reality is that for the long term investor times like these can be a very good time to add money. By the time we wait until the economic outlook is "more positive" we will miss a big rebound.

Some stocks that I like right now:
ABK: AAA rating affirmed last week, beaten down big time,
AIG: One of the worlds largest insurers, at or near lows for the year had some negative news a few weeks back; market overreacted a bit.
DHI: U.S. largest homebuilder; obviously an industry that has had some troubles over the last couple of years. Very strong balance sheet and should be able to rebound nicely when outlook improves.
DRE: One of the biggest REITS; much like DHI good company in struggling industry when markets turn around should be in good position. Also pays strong dividend.

It would take some balls to invest in ABK or AIG right now. ABK is on the brink of bankruptcy. Don't read anything into AAA ratings. Those ratings have been exposed for being fraudulent and is the crux of the credit crunch right now. AIG also has exposure to OTC derivatives which can bring a company to its knees over night. Bears Stearns learned that last week. They were financially solid on Wednesday and bankrupt on Friday.

Home builders and REITS. There are better places to be.