In all honesty, I think we were talking about two different things and neither of us realized it.

I kept mentioning defensive ends like Mario Williams, Julius Peppers, Neil Smith, Bruce Smith, etc. You mentioned Joey Porter, Lamar Woodley, etc.

IMO, an impact pass rusher is a player like I mentioned. Those guys could go anywhere, play on any defense and be unstoppable. I don't think the same could be said for guys like Woodley, Tuck, etc. Those guys are dependent on the scheme and the players around them

We were definitely both being obtuse, but I think it's still possible to get lucky and find a game-changer later on.

Well, I'd say only a couple of teams questioned that (and were wrong) because there were some pretty good players that went ahead of him at #10.

Carson Palmer, Jordan Gross, Andre Johnson and Kevin Williams. I'm sure that Detroit (Charles Rogers), NYJ (Dewayne Robertson), Jax (Byron Leftwich) and N.O. (Jonathan Sullivan) wish they hadn't questioned his abilities.

I swear, sometimes these teams just over-think this stuff. This shit isn't a science.

Oh, of course I agree. But the key word there is "luck".

I happened to the Chiefs once in 45 years. Those aren't good odds.

You overrate draft picks, I think, if you think everybody at 10 or higher is the next Terrell Suggs.

Right, so by definition, #10 isn't worth a Suggs, and you can't "expect" that type of production.

No, I don't.

DeMarcus Ware & Merriman were both #12 overall. Suggs was #10. There is relative value to my expectation.

I can and do expect it.

The reason why I think it would never happen is because I seriously doubt that Baltimore would part with Suggs, especially when there isn't a suitable, younger replacement at #10.

I'm not saying it's impossible to get an impact pass-rusher in the 10-12 range. Obviously not.

But for every Ware or Merriman or Suggs you can cite, I'm sure with minimal effort I can find the next stud pass rusher who struck out. BC's Mike Mamula comes to mind.

Besides, by definition you've already admitted that Suggs is worth more than a #10 pick.

Then you'd be a completely inappropriate candidate for a front office job.

You don't value picks based on the BEST POSSIBLE outcome. It makes no sense. You ignore risk. You pretend that a top ten pick should be a home run. That's absurd.

It's fine to HOPE for the best, but you can't EXPECT it and make it your value calculation.

Tom Brady was the 199th pick overall. I therefore expect that the 199th pick overall to be a future Hall of Fame player. I have relative value to my expectation.


see -- it doesn't work. I know a one time thing is a statistical anomaly, whereas you have listed 3 good examples for your position. Heck, Dwight Freeney would be a 4th example. But still, you can't value picks based on the best possible outcome. You have to discount it for risk of a bad pick for whatever reason.

The Mamula incident happened more than a decade ago. If you take a look at the top 15 of each draft this decade, the scouts have been right far more often than wrong in regards to a pass rushing DE or OLB. A few have slipped but with good reason (Tuck, Allen, etc.).

Suggs may be worth more than the #10 in this year's draft but I doubt anyone would pay more than that.

*Shrug*

Went back to 1998, which is 10 full drafts ago. Guys that were somewhere between teh suck and "not that special" as pass rushers drafted in the top 13:

1998 Andre Wadsworth (Arizona)(3)
2000 Courney Brown (Browns)(1)
2000 Shaun Ellis (Jets)(12)
2001 Justin Smith (Bengals)(4)
2001 Andre Carter (Niners)(7)
2001 Jamal Reynolds (Packers)(10)

-- note -- in 2002-2005, very few DEs / OLBs were taken in the top 13. Those that were were mostly successful (Ware, Merriman etc.)

2006 Kamerion Wimbley (Browns) (13)

Book still out on:

2007 Gaines Adams (Tampa Bay) (4)
2007 Jamaal Anderson (Atlanta)(8)
2007 Adam Carriker (Rams)(13)

Whoever in 2008

This

I think the Browns take him if he's on the board at 5. Depends who else is available I guess they could really like a QB.