ESPN.com’s Keith Law voted Tim Lincecum No. 1, Javier Vazquez No. 2 and Adam Wainwright No. 3.
He explained his thoughts on ESPN.com. He are snippets of that:
:Law noted that Lincecum led by wide margins the NL in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and WAR (Wins Above Replacement), “both of which normalize a pitcher’s stats to account for the help he received from his defense.” By a more narrow margin. “he also led the NL in VORP, which adjusts for park.”
As for Carpenter, Law didn’t believe he pitched enough innings. “He pitched extremely well when on the mound, but not well enough to close the value gap between him and the three pitchers,” Law said.
Vazquez, Law said, “ranked ahead of Wainwright in the advanced metrics anyway, but I also gave him extra credit for pitching in the most difficult division in the NL, one in which he had to face two great offenses and only one patsy.”
Law also dismissed the victory totals of the pitchers, noting that it “tells us nothing useful about how well the pitcher performed.”
Here is what Tipsheet find useful: Wins and losses. But maybe we’re just old-fashioned that way.
Will Carroll had Lincecum No. 1, Wainwright No. 2 and Danny Haren No. 3.
He explained:
“I felt that Dan Haren had been overlooked because of his team’s performance, but that his performance for them was definitely worthy of recognition. I thought that the Cards had two quality contenders for the Cy Young, but that Chris Carpenter’s time away for injury tipped the scales over to Adam Wainwright between the two of them, that despite the value arguments; consistency and availability are two traits that I don’t think get measured well, but they have clear value for a pitcher.
‘So, that left a decision between Tim Lincecum, last year’s winner, and Wainwright. I called three players and one scout, asking for their opinions. One player hadn’t faced Lincecum—”lucky break,” he said—but he felt that Lincecum looked more hittable. “I’m still convinced that deception is a big part of what Lincecum does,” another said, “and that unless there’s a new wrinkle, people are starting to figure him out. He’s still good, his [stuff] is still good, but comparing him to Wainwright? Wainwright was just a shutdown guy this year.”
“The value of two extra starts might not seem like much, but in a year which featured only one close divisional race, perhaps that marginal value per start isn’t as great in most years, but it’s those starts that tipped my vote.
“My final ballot for the NL Cy Young went Adam Wainwright, Tim Lincecum, and Dan Haren. I’ve second-guessed the Haren pick since turning it in, and maybe I didn’t give Jair Jurrjens enough consideration, but that’s a ballot I feel comfortable with. After turning in my ballot, I sat down with MLB.tv and watched each start for my three vote-getters, plus Jurrjens and Carpenter. The more I watch it, the more I feel like Wainwright and Lincecum are in a dead heat. Lincecum is more dominant, while Wainwright is the better pitcher. The subtle changes Wainwright makes from inning to inning and start to start are more visible in a burst-viewing of condensed games.”