Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ (Post 10016294)

hmm... well if it was luck then Polian would have flipped a coin, head's it's Manning, tails it's Leaf and the coin would have landed on heads, right?

Originally Posted by patteeu (Post 10016311)

No, that's not right at all. That's what I've been trying to get through to you. The fact that Polian believed he was picking Manning for all the right reasons doesn't mean he wasn't lucky. How many times has he made a pick believing that he was picking the right guy for the right reasons only to be wrong?

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ (Post 10016361)

I don't know how many times Polian has made a pick KNOWING it was going to be successful but using the Manning example is just wrong. Certainly when you have the #1 pick you do a hellova lot of research before you go to the podium. Polian scrutinized the hell out of Manning and much of that was due to the fact that Leaf was sitting there too. I will say this again because it doesn't appear to have sunk in with you. Polian could have very well OPTED for Manning knowing full well that he might be wrong and that Leaf might end up being better. That's not luck, that's taking the guy you want regardless of what others think.

Originally Posted by patteeu (Post 10016368)

:facepalm:

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ (Post 10016361)

I don't know how many times Polian has made a pick KNOWING it was going to be successful but using the Manning example is just wrong. Certainly when you have the #1 pick you do a hellova lot of research before you go to the podium. Polian scrutinized the hell out of Manning and much of that was due to the fact that Leaf was sitting there too. I will say this again because it doesn't appear to have sunk in with you. Polian could have very well OPTED for Manning knowing full well that he might be wrong and that Leaf might end up being better. That's not luck, that's taking the guy you want regardless of what others think.

Originally Posted by HoneyBadger (Post 10016399)

No. Time and time again the draft has shown to be a great unknown.

Originally Posted by Cochise (Post 10016212)

There's not as much distance between the #1 and #10 overall picks as there used to be.

If you look at all the #1 overall picks back to the last one that is still active, Manning...

2012 Andrew Luck
2011 Cam Newton
2010 Sam Bradford
2009 Matthew Stafford
2008 Jake Long
2007 JaMarcus Russell
2006 Mario Williams
2005 Alex Smith
2004 Eli Manning
2003 Carson Palmer
2002 David Carr
2001 Michael Vick
2000 Courtney Brown
1999 Tim Couch
1998 Peyton Manning

For the most part, you have "consensus" #1s at the time they were drafted.

Excepting Andrew Luck (too soon to judge), how many of these guys were worth a #1?

Mario Williams is probably the most recent one who delivered on #1-type potential. Eli Manning did, and Peyton Manning did.

That's really it.