Quote:
Originally Posted by Cochise
How does the state of sanitation in 2006 differ from 1917?
What sorts of countries currently experience the most influenza deaths per cap?
I remember hearing in the late 80s/early 90s that AIDS was going to mutate and become airborne, and also that it was going to become pandemic here. But the reality is, that people in the United States who don't engage in high risk behaviors are not at high risk.
Color me skeptical.
When it starts affecting average, healthy, non-elderly or non-infantile people in first world countries then I will be scared of eleventy billion people in the world dying including me. Until then, it will still sound like hysteria over nothing to me. If I were elderly or had an infant child I might be scared and rioting for vaccinations.
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oh, that's just the crux--sanitation is worlds better than it was in 1917... however, our ability to spread an infection over large areas of population is MUCH more dangerous than it was in 1917... in 1917, one could only get from europe to america via ship which took several weeks--in several HOURS now, a guy who's infected with virus A (fictional virus for this example), he could have flown from southeast asia, infected about ten people onboard, and infected 10% of the people he comes in contact with via sneezes/etc... by the time he's at his american destination (or in the hospital ER), he's already infected at LEAST a 20-30 people (conservative estimate)
and THOSE people infect another 20-30 people each
all of the sudden, even if THOSE people don't catch another airline or drive somewhere, you've got a MAJOR outbreak on your hands--even worse if it infects stew people (airline steward/esses--supposedly how HIV ran rampant in early 80's)
that's the whole issue with the next pandemic--history tells us that there's generally a major pandemic (be it flu or another virus/bacterium) every century or so--we're due, honestly... and the problem with our sanitation is that even if we have the BEST sanitation in the world, if you dump a few thousand corpses into the best hospital and overwhelm the doctors/nurses of the hospital, they won't be able to contain the infection via the safe 'barrior' methods of quarantine
so all of the sudden, you're going to hell in a handbasket whether it's flu or another virus/bacteria--I've talked with jimnasium about this before (he's the resident public health expert, I'm merely a student)--when it really comes down to it, there's absolutely NO defense against the 'perfect storm'--you do what you CAN do, protect the very young and very old
that's basically where 1917 differentiated from other flu strains--it didn't just run roughshod through the elderly and extremely young, it ran rampant in the 'young adult' and 'middle aged' people--which is what they're afraid Avian flu will do if/when it ever comes
jeesh--sorry for the encyclopedia, this is just a subject (public health) that I'm passionate about