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-   -   Chiefs Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012 (https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=264296)

Old Dog 12-09-2012 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man (Post 9194002)
For whatever reason, their defensive line destroy our offensive line every time,

I'm gonna go with, "Their D-line isn't bad and our offensive line sucks balls" for $1000.

BigCatDaddy 12-09-2012 07:12 PM

There are two top notch QB's in this draft. We'll end up with the 3rd pick.

tk13 12-10-2012 11:32 PM

Here's the weirdest stuff I can come up with for the final three weeks.

The Colts will win the AFC South if they win their final three games now. There are actually scenarios out there where they could be the #1 overall seed, but it would require the Pats to stumble against someone they shouldn't lose to. If they won out a #2 seed wouldn't be completely unrealistic given the other teams' schedules though.

The funniest thing though while playing with ESPN's playoff machine... Cleveland still technically has a shot if they win out. I was able to get them in as a 6 seed. Never going to happen with their schedule though. The really funny thing was the Chargers still have a chance too at 8-8. Still a complete longshot but really not completely unrealistic if the Bengals and Steelers slipped up. Nothing like Pittsburgh having to lose to Jacksonville would be required. Four more years of Norv!

Nightfyre 12-10-2012 11:35 PM

If we lose vs. OAK and JAX wins vs. TEN do we own the #1 pick at that point even if we beat Denver?

cdcox 12-10-2012 11:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk13 (Post 9198924)
Here's the weirdest stuff I can come up with for the final three weeks.

The Colts will win the AFC South if they win their final three games now. There are actually scenarios out there where they could be the #1 overall seed, but it would require the Pats to stumble against someone they shouldn't lose to. If they won out a #2 seed wouldn't be completely unrealistic given the other teams' schedules though.

The funniest thing though while playing with ESPN's playoff machine... Cleveland still technically has a shot if they win out. I was able to get them in as a 6 seed. Never going to happen with their schedule though. The really funny thing was the Chargers still have a chance too at 8-8. Still a complete longshot but really not completely unrealistic if the Bengals and Steelers slipped up. Nothing like Pittsburgh having to lose to Jacksonville would be required. Four more years of Norv!

If Indy wins out, they have a 16% chance of getting the number 1 seed and a 48% chance of getting the 2 seed.

If Cleveland wins out, they have a 20% shot of making the playoffs.

If San Diego wins out, they have a 10% chance of making the playoffs.

This took about 3 minutes with my software.

Hammock Parties 12-10-2012 11:56 PM

It's good to know we'll get Indy's best shot.

cdcox 12-10-2012 11:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 9198933)
If we lose vs. OAK and JAX wins vs. TEN do we own the #1 pick at that point even if we beat Denver?

Yes, as long as we lose to Indy.

tk13 12-11-2012 12:06 AM

I figured you'd have the numbers. :) I guess those numbers aren't surprising. Although Cleveland's schedule is brutal, no way they win out. San Diego actually has a legit shot to win out with their schedule. It would require Cincy and Pittsburgh to stumble a bit though.

Still, I think Denver quitting will be a bigger concern for us than Indy. It's now set up where New England could win out and make Denver's last game pointless at 4:25 that last Sunday. The Niners winning in NE next week could actually help the Chiefs draft chances by keeping Denver in play.

Hammock Parties 12-11-2012 12:10 AM

Don't think there's any way the Chiefs try to win that game in Denver anyway.

If they are within 1 loss of the #1 pick they'll do what they can to ensure it happens.

Tribal Warfare 12-11-2012 12:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy (Post 9194411)
There are two top notch QB's in this draft. We'll end up with the 3rd pick.

possibly 3 if Bray gets his shit together

NJChiefsFan 12-11-2012 01:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning (Post 9198991)
Don't think there's any way the Chiefs try to win that game in Denver anyway.

If they are within 1 loss of the #1 pick they'll do what they can to ensure it happens.

I don't believe that. I have seen way too many things happen when this team did the opposite of what they should. Some of the wins last year are a perfect example. Beating GB, beating CHI because of a hail mary. They may lose because they don't give a shit about anything but I doubt a bunch of players are going to join together for the good of the franchise.

Hammock Parties 12-11-2012 01:34 AM

That team had a fighter's chance at the playoffs though.

Different.

The players aren't going to join together but anyone can be benched, the game can be called a certain way.

KCrockaholic 12-11-2012 01:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning (Post 9198991)
Don't think there's any way the Chiefs try to win that game in Denver anyway.

If they are within 1 loss of the #1 pick they'll do what they can to ensure it happens.

Why would Romeo purposefully lose to Denver if his job is on the line? Unless he's being kept. I doubt the players care about a draft pick.

Hammock Parties 12-11-2012 01:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic (Post 9199055)
Why would Romeo purposefully lose to Denver if his job is on the line? Unless he's being kept.

He knows he is gone.

In fact, I bet he's got his cruise trip all lined up.

007 12-11-2012 01:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning (Post 9198991)
Don't think there's any way the Chiefs try to win that game in Denver anyway.

If they are within 1 loss of the #1 pick they'll do what they can to ensure it happens.

Bet they won't. They will try to win all three games. Hell, even Indy won 2 games late in the season last year.

KCrockaholic 12-11-2012 01:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning (Post 9199056)
He knows he is gone.

In fact, I bet he's got his cruise trip all lined up.

So you think he puts in a bullshit work week that week, and rolls over?

Maybe it's just me, but I've never bought into teams losing on purpose. Unless the HC is guaranteed a job the following year.

007 12-11-2012 01:43 AM

I'm just sick of having to wait until the end of the season. Clark, if you are going to fire Pioli just do it NOW. JFC.

Hammock Parties 12-11-2012 01:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic (Post 9199060)
So you think he puts in a bullshit work week that week, and rolls over?

Maybe it's just me, but I've never bought into teams losing on purpose. Unless the HC is guaranteed a job the following year.

We don't really need to lose "on purpose."

We just need to be a little conservative on offense and give Charles lots of breathers. Lots and lots of them. :evil:

KCrockaholic 12-11-2012 01:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guru (Post 9199061)
I'm just sick of having to wait until the end of the season. Clark, if you are going to fire Pioli just do it NOW. JFC.

This.

The waiting shit is killing me...

The thought of Pioli staying longer just makes me want to jump off the upper deck.

007 12-11-2012 02:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic (Post 9199063)
This.

The waiting shit is killing me...

The thought of Pioli staying longer just makes me want to jump off the upper deck.

Surely he remembers the relief in the stadium the first home game after Carl was removed from the equation. It would be absolute elation now.

Ugly Duck 12-11-2012 02:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man (Post 9194002)
We don't match up well with Oakland. For whatever reason, their defensive line destroy our offensive line every time

*Seymour, out.
*Tyvon Branch (our best player on D), out.
*Rolando McClain (still in the doghouse), not cleared to play.
*Safeties, RB Taiwan Jones & guys off the street playing cornerback.
*Coach Allen announced that he will use the last 3 games "to evaluate young talent."

The Chiefs offense will be playing against pre-season talent led by coaches with a pre-season mentality. KC will have to try really hard to lose this game.

007 12-11-2012 03:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ugly Duck (Post 9199082)
*Seymour, out.
*Tyvon Branch (our best player on D), out.
*Rolando McClain (still in the doghouse), not cleared to play.
*Safeties, RB Taiwan Jones & guys off the street playing cornerback.
*Coach Allen announced that he will use the last 3 games "to evaluate young talent."

The Chiefs offense will be playing against pre-season talent led by coaches with a pre-season mentality. KC will have to try really hard to lose this game.

It will literally be a pillowfight.

Nightfyre 12-11-2012 06:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox (Post 9198970)
Yes, as long as we lose to Indy.

It would be nice to have the luxury of being able to cheer for my team to win a game at the end of the year.

ShowtimeSBMVP 12-16-2012 06:09 PM

Chiefs- 2-12 IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-12 NE, @TEN
Oakland- 4-10 @CAR , @SD
Eagles- 4-10 Wash , @ NYG
Lions- 4-10 ATL , Bears
Tenn- 4-9 NYJ ,@ GB , Jags

Hammock Parties 12-16-2012 06:11 PM

PERCENTAGE! NOW!!!

Infidel Goat 12-16-2012 06:13 PM

In sportsspeak, it's 110%...

cdcox 12-16-2012 06:17 PM

70% chance of #1 with guaranteed top 3 spot.

AustinChief 12-16-2012 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning (Post 9215168)
PERCENTAGE! NOW!!!

My guess: 65% for #1 pick... something like 95% that we get top 2 pick.

AustinChief 12-16-2012 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox (Post 9215227)
70% chance of #1 with guaranteed top 3 spot.

sweet, 70% .. I'll take that.

I'll admit, I am worried about Denver having nothing to play for and screwing us over by losing.

UberSparky 12-16-2012 06:21 PM

Update now game is over!

kcpasco 12-16-2012 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AustinChief (Post 9215242)
sweet, 70% .. I'll take that.

I'll admit, I am worried about Denver having nothing to play for and screwing us over by losing.

I think Denver will be playing for a bye

Chiefs Pantalones 12-16-2012 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AustinChief (Post 9215242)
sweet, 70% .. I'll take that.

I'll admit, I am worried about Denver having nothing to play for and screwing us over by losing.

They're gonna be playing for seeding right?

tk13 12-16-2012 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcpasco (Post 9215264)
I think Denver will be playing for a bye

Depends on what happens tonight. If NE wins they move back into the 2 spot. If they win out they could possibly clinch the 2 seed during their 1PM game week 17. The Chiefs and Broncos don't play until 4, so we might already know by then.

That's probably the most likely scenario. Houston's not out of the woods yet either though. Denver got whipped by both Houston and NE though, so they aren't going to be winning any tiebreakers.

DeezNutz 12-16-2012 06:25 PM

IND needs to win, so this is great news for Chiefs fans.

ILChief 12-16-2012 06:25 PM

So we need the 49ers to win?

007 12-16-2012 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk13 (Post 9215274)
Depends on what happens tonight. If NE wins they move back into the 2 spot. If they win out they could possibly clinch the 2 seed during their 1PM game at the end of the season. The Chiefs and Broncos don't play until 4, so we might already know by then.

who does NE play that day. maybe SNF will take it. heh

cdcox 12-16-2012 06:26 PM

As of now there is a 70% chance that the last Denver game means something to them.

ILChief 12-16-2012 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guru (Post 9215290)
who does NE play that day. maybe SNF will take it. heh

Miami

tk13 12-16-2012 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guru (Post 9215290)
who does NE play that day. maybe SNF will take it. heh

They're at home against Miami.

Next week they are at Jacksonville... so if they can win tonight the odds are in their favor I'd say.

Houston is at home against Minnesota and then @Indy. They'd have to lose both though to fall behind Denver.

The Bad Guy 12-16-2012 06:29 PM

Even if that Denver game means nothing to them, do you really think that this offense could score on Denver's 2nd string?

They just got shutout by the Raiders. One of the worst D's in the league.

This team is an epic shitpile.

tk13 12-16-2012 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox (Post 9215293)
As of now there is a 70% chance that the last Denver game means something to them.

Yeah, but what's that number if they beat San Francisco tonight? I can't imagine very good considering what's left on their schedule.

007 12-16-2012 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk13 (Post 9215319)
They're at home against Miami.

Next week they are at Jacksonville... so if they can win tonight the odds are in their favor I'd say.

Houston is at home against Minnesota and then @Indy. They'd have to lose both though to fall behind Denver.

OK so we need NE to lose tonight then win the last two so Denver has to play against us.

ILChief 12-16-2012 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guru (Post 9215346)
OK so we need NE to lose tonight then win the last two so Denver has to play against us.

Well, NE plays JAX next week, so if they would lose that one it wouldn't matter. But we know that won't happen

cdcox 12-16-2012 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk13 (Post 9215336)
Yeah, but what's that number if they beat San Francisco tonight? I can't imagine very good considering what's left on their schedule.

About a 40% chance. So go 9ers!

J Diddy 12-16-2012 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AustinChief (Post 9215242)
sweet, 70% .. I'll take that.

I'll admit, I am worried about Denver having nothing to play for and screwing us over by losing.

Yeah but what does Nate Silver say?

alnorth 12-16-2012 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox (Post 9215293)
As of now there is a 70% chance that the last Denver game means something to them.

Are you considering the fact that we have the afternoon game? What are the odds that the game will mean something to them at 3pm?

ShowtimeSBMVP 12-16-2012 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 9215804)
Are you considering the fact that we have the afternoon game? What are the odds that the game will mean something to them at 3pm?

The NFL will move all the games back to 4pm for teams in the playoff hunt.

Ebolapox 12-16-2012 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan (Post 9215814)
The NFL will move all the games back to 4pm for teams in the playoff hunt.

link?

ShowtimeSBMVP 12-16-2012 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by h5n1 (Post 9215836)
link?

Happens every year.

SAUTO 12-16-2012 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan (Post 9215838)
Happens every year.

I don't remember this happening at all. Only one game can be flexed. No other changes have ever been made iirc
Posted via Mobile Device

ShowtimeSBMVP 12-16-2012 08:01 PM

http://www.musiccitymiracles.com/201...itans-stay-put

2011


http://ten.247sports.com/Article/NFL...-Schedule-9498

2010



The NFL utilizes “flexible scheduling” on Sundays in Weeks 11-17. To ensure a Sunday night game and doubleheader games with playoff implications in Week 17, the flexible scheduling decision for that Sunday may be made on six days notice.

ShowtimeSBMVP 12-16-2012 08:45 PM

Shawn Zobel‏@ShawnZobel_DHQ

Barring two wins by either team, the Chiefs & Jaguars will own the first two picks of the 2013 NFL Draft. Who picks first remains to be

Hammock Parties 12-16-2012 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan (Post 9216150)
Shawn Zobel‏@ShawnZobel_DHQ

Barring two wins by either team, the Chiefs & Jaguars will own the first two picks of the 2013 NFL Draft. Who picks first remains to be

Hey Shawn, maybe if you weren't a 21-year old dumbass you'd know, like us.

Dr. Gigglepants 12-16-2012 09:08 PM

Indy already 6 point favorite. WE GOT THIS
Posted via Mobile Device

Chiefs Pantalones 12-16-2012 09:50 PM

So is this potential loss by the Pats good for us?

ILChief 12-16-2012 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefs Pantalones (Post 9216489)
So is this potential loss by the Pats good for us?

Yes, it makes Denver's game against us more likely to matter to them

Chiefs Pantalones 12-16-2012 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ILChief (Post 9216497)
Yes, it makes Denver's game against us more likely to matter to them

Delicious.

ShowtimeSBMVP 12-23-2012 03:04 PM

UPDATED


Chiefs 2-13 @Den
Jags 2-13 @Tenn

BossChief 12-23-2012 03:13 PM

Jags play at noon and we play at 3:15

We will know if we have the top pick or not by gametime.

aturnis 12-23-2012 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief (Post 9236094)
Jags play at noon and we play at 3:15

We will know if we have the top pick or not by gametime.

If they win, yes. If they lose, we must still lose...

It might take until midway through the 2nd quarter before we know in the second scenario.

Chiefs Pantalones 12-23-2012 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aturnis (Post 9236101)
If they win, yes. If they lose, we must still lose...

It might take until midway through the 2nd quarter before we know in the second scenario.

So if they win, we can win or lose and we'll still have the top pick?

aturnis 12-23-2012 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefs Pantalones (Post 9236114)
So if they win, we can win or lose and we'll still have the top pick?

Si.

Chiefs Pantalones 12-23-2012 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aturnis (Post 9236171)
Si.

Oh my bad, we have the tiebreaker duh.

cdcox 12-23-2012 03:26 PM

92% guys.

RUSH 12-23-2012 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox (Post 9236187)
92% guys.

http://i.imgur.com/JQB7k.gif

Hammock Parties 12-23-2012 03:40 PM

https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphot...47831940_o.jpg

Spott 12-23-2012 03:51 PM

The only thing worse than that sign is seeing someone still wearing a Joe Montana jersey.

Guitarkore 12-23-2012 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spott (Post 9236328)
The only thing worse than that sign is seeing someone still wearing a Joe Montana jersey.

Would you waste your money on a Quin or Cassel Jersey?

Hammock Parties 12-23-2012 03:53 PM

If the Jags win before our game next week, do we have it?

Chiefs play at 4:25 EST. Jags are noon game.

Chiefs Pantalones 12-23-2012 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning (Post 9236337)
If the Jags win before our game next week, do we have it?

Chiefs play at 4:25 EST. Jags are noon game.

Yes, because if we end up tied with them we own the tiebreaker. So we can win if they win.

aturnis 12-23-2012 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spott (Post 9236328)
The only thing worse than that sign is seeing someone still wearing a Joe Montana jersey.

I disagree. That sign is awesome and I'd like to give the holder a huge hug.

Old Dog 12-23-2012 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefs Pantalones (Post 9236341)
Yes, because if we end up tied with them we own the tiebreaker. So we can win if they win.

Would rather lose anyway so we have the 1st pick in each round rather than only in the odd numbered rounds.

BossChief 12-23-2012 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spott (Post 9236328)
The only thing worse than that sign is seeing someone still wearing a Joe Montana jersey.

I bought my Montana Mitchell and Ness back in 1994 (that same jersey I think) and still wear it to games that matter. Goes without saying that I haven't wore it for awhile...theist time was the Baltimore playoff game.

BossChief 12-23-2012 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Old Dog (Post 9236474)
Would rather lose anyway so we have the 1st pick in each round rather than only in the odd numbered rounds.

Absolutely.

Chiefs Pantalones 12-23-2012 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Old Dog (Post 9236474)
Would rather lose anyway so we have the 1st pick in each round rather than only in the odd numbered rounds.

I'm down.

CaliforniaChief 12-23-2012 05:29 PM

We're so close now...

Bob Dole 12-23-2012 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief (Post 9236552)
We're so close now...

Yet we will probably find some way to **** it up.

Watch Pioli do something stupid and the NFL penalize us our first round pick,

Nightfyre 12-23-2012 05:40 PM

I dunno. I think I would rather see Jacksonville win and watch the Chiefs knock the Broncos off a playoff bye simultaneously knocking them off their pedestal.

AussieChiefsFan 12-23-2012 05:41 PM

es
Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 9236592)
I dunno. I think I would rather see Jacksonville win and watch the Chiefs knock the Broncos off a playoff bye simultaneously knocking them off their pedestal.

While Charles runs for 300 yards breaking APs record. And finishes the year with 1700+ yrds

Nightfyre 12-23-2012 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AussieChiefsFan (Post 9236595)
esWhile Charles runs for 300 yards breaking APs record. And finishes the year with 1700+ yrds

He should have done that at Denver a couple years ago but got pulled out.


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