For what it's worth, 538's current model says:

27% Titans
25% Patriots
14% Chiefs
12% Bills
11% Ravens
8% Chargers
2% Bengals

I'd guess the Titans are a little high since the model doesn't know how to account for a missing all-star RB, but otherwise I think it's reasonable.

We want the Bills to win tonight, but honestly it really just comes down to the Chiefs winning out vs. not. The rest of it will wash out.

I dont mind rooting for the bills. But I don't like having to root for the bucs in a week.

I feel like the fans of every other AFC team are going to be so big mad at us in a few weeks.

In no way are we going to deserve that #1 seed LMAO

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...l/playoff-odds

Football Outsiders has it as 41.1% Patriots, 15.7% Bills, 14.3% Chiefs, 12.1% Titans, Ravens 7.2%, and Chargers 7.2%. It also thinks if the Chiefs win 4/5 they probably do it.

Although their system clearly thinks the Patriots are the best team in the AFC, which I'm less sure about yet.

The Chiefs would (theoretically) deserve it no less than any of the other teams.


There has been a lot of craptacular effort across the AFC this year. Maybe NOBODY should get the #1 seed (how would that work?).

Allow an 8th afc team and make the 1 seed play them. :shrug:

Much better now, things are dropping just right.

Still have 2 teams we've lost to with the same record as us. Our schedule isn't easy. We kinda need to win out. The Patriots look like a pita.

@Rams, @Cincy, @Denver
Steelers, Raiders

Our QB tends to play better on the road, so that helps.

I dunno. I think the Patriots are the better team now.

So we just need the Bills and Pats to split and the Bills to lose to the Bucs and the Chiefs just have to win out.

Need TEN and BAL to drop one.

Have you seen Baltimore's schedule? They still have the Rams, Packers, Browns and Pitt again.

And the Bengals.

It's all happening.

We'd have to win out. If the offense wakes up, its possible.

We'll be favored in every game. The **** you talking about?

Idk about that Sharters game.

Ravens are gonna miss the playoffs.

favored every game ≠ win every game

Even if you think we're wildly favored (we're not) and will have a 80% chance of winning each game, the chances we'll win all of them would only be 33%.

<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/DHqth0hVQoIzS" width="480" height="206" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/maths-DHqth0hVQoIzS">via GIPHY</a></p>

We will not be favored at LAC and we shouldn't be.

Both probably will. They both have some tough games left. I just hope Buffalo/NE spilt. Give each team another loss and creates a little bit of room between us and them.

They shouldn't have the record that they do give the number of players lost. For whatever reason freak luck is on their side this year.

They might lose 4 outta 5

Nick has the blueprint.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I appreciate the Patriots eliminating the Bills from 1 seed contention. <br><br>Now, when the Colts beat the Pats in two weeks, the road will be fully cleared for the Chiefs to be back in their rightful place atop the AFC.</p>&mdash; nick wright (@getnickwright) <a href="https://twitter.com/getnickwright/status/1468070937035747330?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 7, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

How about you leave the math to Scott Steiner

NE is getting the 1. They won't lose another game. Brady will also get the one most likely.

Indy NE will be a good game.

NE can lose to Miami and Buffalo too.

That's the game. Maybe on a nice sunny NE day Allen could beat them.

Not a good result for us today at all. NE should take the 1 now but maybe they can lose to the Colts.

It's fine.

I'm also good with us getting the 2. Just keep winning.

Not much difference between getting the 2 and the 4. Main value of getting the 1 is the sole bye.

Mahomes winning an AFCCG in tough weather in NE would be glorious.

If 1 gets eliminated AFC Championship in Arrowhead.

**** EM!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FF-lBaTX...pg&name=medium

Big difference. If we get #2 and #1 loses, then all games are at home. Only one would be with #4, unless all the WC teams win to take out top seeds.

It’s potentially a difference but statistically the big difference is having to play one less game.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Bills are 3-4 since they won the Super Bowl in Week 5.</p>&mdash; Jordan Foote (@footenoted) <a href="https://twitter.com/footenoted/status/1468068933769039873?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 7, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Wow that's good to see! There's just no way Jones is beating Mahomes. Before tonight the Bills were the team I feared the most if we had to go there in January.

Jones won't beat Mahomes. But Belichick might.

Calm the **** down. JFC. Why are you always looking for a fight? I didn't say we WOULD lose, just that our schedule isn't a cakewalk.

Take a Valium or something.

Chiefs won’t be favored in that chargers game.

The Cincy game will be tougher than people think.

Joey Burrow is now playing through a dislocated finger on his throwing hand and the Bengals’ OL still isn’t good (has surrendered 36 sacks).

The KC DL is going to pound them into submission. Not a good matchup for Cincinnati.

Re: San Diego, that’s the toughest game left on KC’s schedule, primarily because of the turnaround time.

Thankfully it’s a divisional opponent they spent time prepping for in the offseason, and weather should not be an issue for it.

I don’t know if KC will be favored, but if they pound the Raiders this week I’d guess they will.

Bet they will.

**** belichick......

Jones should feast against the Bengals. With our improved run defense, Mixon doesn’t worry me much. Teams with TE’s who can attack the inside seams tend to give us trouble, and Uzomah only has like 2 good games on the year. I don’t think he’s much of a threat. Higgins and Chase are great, but Sneed and Ward match up with them about as well as any CBs will.

That’s the way I see it, too.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Odds to win the AFC per PFF&#39;s Power Rankings ��<br><br>Get Power Rankings, Super Bowl, Conference Championship and Playoff odds using PFF&#39;s Power Rankings Tool ⬇</p>&mdash; PFF (@PFF) <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1468316887553560585?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 7, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

https://i.imgur.com/HaSn4Wx.jpg

If
Then

that is all:)

I love what that says about the Chiefs but those ranking are WHACK.

New England chances are twice as good as Tampa or Arizona? New England is way overhyped.

That's what the math says.

If NE drops the one seed I think their chances go way down.

KC will be 3ish point favorites at Chargers.

PFF isn't just "math". They use subjective "eye tests" as well. And they're letting past history blind them when it comes to the Pats.

I'm referring to Football Outsiders. That place has usually been rock solid with these types of rankings because they are not as subjective.

The pure math systems really like the Patriots as well. DVOA has NE as the #11 offense, the #2 defense, and the #4 special teams, good for #2 overall on the year.

Looking at the last 10 games, the Patriots are far and away the best team using DVOA.

Not saying I agree that's the case in reality, but the numbers like the Pats, especially right now.

Does FO have New England more than twice as likely to win it all as everybody else? Because that's absurd.

Yes. If you don't like math take it up with the universe. ROFL

I expect NE to lose to Indy.

For sure, the numbers should favor them, especially DVOA.

That being said, does that give them more than double the chance of winning a championship as the Packers, Cards, Chiefs, Ravens, or any other team out there?

**** no. That's just dumb.

There's things the "math" doesn't take into account. Like the fact that the Patriots have a rookie QB who has never taken a snap in the NFL playoffs.

And then Indy will get a 35% chance to win it all. :rolleyes:

NE is a good story for the media but I'm not buying it.

As I said earlier, Indy is a far scarier add if they get in then NE.

They still have Carson Wentz at QB. You never know which guy is going to show up any given week. Their running game is formidable but that alone isn't going to propel them to a SB anymore than it will NE.

I think it does, though. Mac is 15th in DYAR and DVOA for QBs.

That means the rest of the team is so strong they can overcome a mediocre QB.

Possibly but I have to see it happen first before I'm gonna crown him. The playoffs are an entirely different animal and running game + defense has definite shortcomings, as Chiefs fans well know.

And Buffalo the second time they play. I fully expected them and Buffalo to split their games.

A strong team with a QB that has to be carried by said team.

I can't quite put my finger on it, but I do believe I've watched that movie before.

Didn't care for the end.

I mean part of the reason Jones is sitting at about the league average in terms of analytics is because he hasn't turned the ball over a lot, which stands to reason because he hasn't been given a ton of opportunities to do so.

That is likely to change in the playoffs, when they'll have to be more diversified on offense, thus increasing his chances of making a rookie mistake or two.

No he won't. He never has. The two times KC lost to NE in the Mahomes era was because the KC defense played like garbage. Belichick has never been able to shut down Mahomes for an entire game.

"Run the ball and play defense" ..

Blech.

Very possible.

They are evenly matched, that's why I bet the under even though I liked the Patriots slightly more last game because of the conditions.

Buffalo could have had one of Allen's screwball passes get caught in the end. Buffalo guys were open.

That Dolphins defense is going to give him fits. They're talented and well-coached, by a former Patriot no less.

They've been shit kicking pretty much everyone they play for the last two months so that makes sense.

The rookie QB will likely limit them from making it to the Super Bowl.

Yeah, I mean, it's hard to argue w/ a 150 pt point differential. The Patriots are kicking ass right now.

Now I think a BIG part of that is a soft schedule, but the numbers are what the numbers are.

And looking at Buffalo's slate, as well as some of the tie-breaker scenarios, there's a WAY better chance that they miss the playoffs outright than there is that they get the 1 seed, IMO. They're in a world of trouble here. They need to win 4 of 5 w/ the Colts having the tie-breaker over them. I don't think 10-7 gets them in - I think they'll need 11.

I just don't see them doing that with the way their schedule sets up.

Whatever. You are not beating pats defense this year unless you have a stud QB that can. Tua is not and will get exposed.

I didn't say the Dolphins will win, you should really try reading instead of shitposting.

And I'm absolutely shocked, just shocked, I tell you, that Red Dawg loves this Patriots team.

Chode.

Right, but now he doesn't have to shut down Mahomes. Nowdays, either Mahomes' receivers shut him down or Mahomes shuts himself down.

True. But KC also doesn't have a BIG 12 caliber defense either this year.