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Well there's a couple things different between a couple years ago with Arenado.
1) He would be a free agent and a team wouldn't be giving up prospects to get him on top of his salary. 2) He has answered the "can he hit outside of Coors?" question. 3) He's in the race for MVP. 4) Kris Bryant just got 7/182M. He'd be pretty stupid to not leverage his opt-out to get a nice sizeable raise and I dont think a meager $11M is gonna do it. |
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More likely we will throw away someone(s) for a Madison Bumgarner or some other has been who once was a name (Lester/Happ 2.0). |
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His 2019 season where he put up an .866 OPS and 20 rd homers (w/ the 'Coors Hangover' weighing that down) was an extremely loud indicator, was it not? And the 'prospects' the Cardinals gave up weren't for Arenado - they were for the $50 million offset. And even then, they didn't have anything nearing that sort of surplus value. Bryant's 7/$182 takes him through his age 36 season and included his age 30 season. An Arenado deal wouldn't start until his age 32 season, which is a notably 'cliff' year. Bryant's deal from age 32-36 is 5/$131; substantially less than the 5/$155 I proposed. Finally - Arenado doesn't have your classic 'old man skills'. The biggest problem with hitters as they age isn't necessarily what they do with the strikes they swing at. When you look at the aging curves, where they REALLY collapse is what they do on balls (rather than strikes) they swing at. The numbers decline substantially. Arenado is not your Big Papi style selective hitter. Arenado is a very aggressive hitter who swings at balls well above league average. Additionally, league average O-Contact rates are around 65% and Arenado's over 70% - also well above league average. Offensively I don't expect him to age well. 34 is when the wall really comes for those metrics as well. And MLB front offices know all of this stuff as well as I do. I don't see teams falling over themselves to extend him through his age 37/38 seasons. Those aren't going to be pleasant years, IMO. |
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I just don't think there's any way he sticks at 2b (you can see in how he moves; not a natural 'bender') and as a DH, I don't think he's any more valuable to us than Burleson. In fact, I think Burleson may be a better pure hitter. Also, Gorman takes a really aggressive hack - I think he'll have the same kind of long-term injury issues (with those nagging soft-tissue things) that we see from O'Neill. And I figure you'll see a lot of them in his back, which concerns me and further diminishes he chance of staying at 2b. Moreover, Masyn Winn is an ELECTRIC player. I mean just incredibly dynamic. Lightning fast (like, potential 99th percentile sprint speed), probably the strongest arm in the minors and very soft hands. He could be a GG caliber shortstop the first day he takes the field. And with his approach, a genuine leadoff hitter. Edman at 2b just makes too much sense long-term. Again; just a premier defensive player. You put those two up the middle defensively and let them run - they're awfully well built for Busch Stadium. It's less about dumping a prospect than it is finding better fits for our talent. This team is better with Winn - Edman up the middle and Burleson at DH long-term than it is with something weird like Edman - Gorman up the middle and Winn playing outfield I guess? The pieces just fit better this way. |
According to my scientific scouting and time travel, aka way too much The Show 22, O’Neil is going to fall off a cliff, Bader never really learns to hit much, speed and defense are elite but Carlson always turns into Mickey Mantle around age 27.
Hold on to Carlson, you’re welcome /sarcasm/ |
Fascinating discussion- love it
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Outside of guys that are signing mega deals really early like Acuna, none of these contracts are tradeable. They all come with a huge negative value attached as soon as they are signed. The only player that actually ended with surplus value at the time his contract ended, off the top of my head, was Max Scherzer. You are way underestimating the power of FA while simultaneously ignoring the hurdles of trading a mega deal and trying to use that as the barometer for what Arenado would fetch on the open market. |
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Regarding the FA market - how many big spending teams are likely to be in at 3b? The Sox aren't gonna be. The Dodgers are likely to turn to Vargas. The Yankees are likely to turn to Volpe (w/ Peraza seemingly the better fit at SS). The Phillies and Mets are definite considerations but it seems likely that the Phillies are going to make a push for Trae Turner. But admittedly it only takes 1 team. And maybe that 1 team is the Mets and maybe they offer him 7/$210. And if so - it's important to remember that the Cardinals presently have the best 3b prospect in baseball in their system. A guy who everyone expected to move to the OF this year but who hasn't. And Walker's played a solid 3b all year in Springfield. There's no reason at all to believe he can't stick there at least for the first several years of his career. If Arenado opts out and frees up a $35 million salary slot and opens up 3b for Donovan for a season while Walker rounds into MLB form - I don't see the Cardinals having any problem with that at all. Walker becomes the long-term 3b solution with Burleson/Yepez as their fallback if Goldschmidt declines or requests a deal into his 40s. They'll let him walk at that point. I simply don't see that Arenado trade, which was essentially a salary dump for some fringe prospects, as a 'mega deal' that was loaded with hurdles anything beyond what offering him a big money FA contract would create. If teams weren't eager to acquire him w/ a deal that included 2 additional prime seasons at discount rates, I don't see why they'd be eager to give him the same AAV for 2 extra years at the decline stages of his career. The Cardinals simply do not go beyond their 'comfort level' and frankly I think they view player value almost identically to me. In the trade discussion thread with Arenado I stated before any deal seemed likely that the Rox were about $50 million upside down in that deal and I said a trade would never get done because they wouldn't eat that kind of money. Well that turned out to be EXACTLY what the Cardinals insisted on and received. The Cardinals are risk averse as hell - but they're rational to a fault. There's nothing 'rational' about offering a an aggressive hitter a 7 year deal into his late 30s. The Cardinals won't do it and that's fine. I'd rather keep him at responsible numbers but if the Mets or some other bottomless pit franchise want to go beyond that - let them. |
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I don't mind a kid learning on the job at all - a learning curve is expected. The problem is that the area where he most struggles (RHP with quality breaking stuff) is really a foundational thing for a corner OFer and it's an area where we've seen essentially zero growth since he came up. |
Haven't even payed attention this year and won't till Mo is gone. Shildt sucked ass but to make him the fall guy and keep mo was the last straw
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They've become extremely difficult to root for at this point. |
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Jack Flaherty taking the hill before he was ready was 'not our decision'.... Can he refuse a rehab assignment? Yup. Can he refuse an option? No, no he cannot. Not if he doesn't have 5 years of MLB service time. And Jack Flaherty does NOT have 5 years of service time. So if he wants to refuse his minor league rehab assignment, you activate him and then you OPTION his ass. And you stop his service clock. And given that he's literally 2 days over the necessary requirement for FA after next season, he is absolutely not going to want to see that service clock stopped. So yes, it was absolutely your decision, you feckless ****. You just didn't want to make it. You didn't want to deal with Flaherty bad-mouthing you on Twitter. You didn't what jack-ass calling you racist or something equally stupid. Or you thought the inevitable grievance hearing sounded too icky to deal with because you believe your own bullshit about being a 'model organization' and think the Cardinals are above playing in that mud. All you had to do was say "okay - you're refusing a rehab assignment because you insist you're physically sound? Cool - sign here..." Then you activate him and option his ass back to Memphis the next day. If you're feeling charitable, you tell him what his options are before you go through all that. But you do NOT let a guy like Jack Flaherty hold the organization hostage. It's absolutely absurd and of course Mozeliak found some way to be a smug prick about it while dodging personal responsibility. |
Mr Brinks Truck himself gets locked up by a 3-2 hanging curveball in the 9th when all he has to do is put a ball in play to tie it.
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I'm sure somehow Ollie will blame this all on Knizner.
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4 runs scored in the last 5 games combined with three shut outs
Impressive, very nice. |
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">How about Corey Knebel surviving the 9th-inning error?!<br><br>Phillies win again. They've held the Cardinals scoreless 27 straight innings. <a href="https://t.co/ARG9fiVfhs">pic.twitter.com/ARG9fiVfhs</a></p>— NBC Sports Philadelphia (@NBCSPhilly) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBCSPhilly/status/1545879808583802881?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 9, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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You fail 7/10 times, you’re a HOF’r. You fail 8/10 times, you probably never play MLB. |
Mo on the trade deadline in the STL dispatch. Expected but still **** that guy.
Is this a year the team may consider splurging on something it wouldn’t have in other years? “We’re not going to blow up our model of how we think about player acquisition,” Mozeliak told the Post-Dispatch. “We certainly understand this is a really fun team to be around. Obviously, we’re coming off a tough road trip, but we still believe, as we get healthier, there are some things we could augment that would make us stronger. So that’s how we’ll improve.” |
“When [X] comes back, it will be just like making a trade…”
Literally every single year. What a monumental asshole. Folks - he really thinks you’re this dumb. The problem is that the overwhelming majority of the BFIB truly are. Cardinal Twitter is full of complete morons. |
I’m truly in awe of that word salad. Our little boy is all grown up.
Can you imagine him saying “low hanging fruit” these days? Would never happen. Oh he’d give you the same general idea, but he’d wrap it in five paragraphs of flowery nonsense designed to make the rubes go cross eyed before he tells them that they’ll get nothing and like it. |
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But did you realize he’s had a dead even WPA over his last 70 games? It’s one of my favorite rearview mirror reviews of what a player is producing in key spots. It’s not predictive that I’ve ever seen - but it does tell you a bit about the past. He did this last year as well. Your superstar players have to hit when it matters and for most of this season Arenado has been mediocre in that regard. |
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To average 4/season for around 6 seasons is exceptionally productive and consistent. By comparison, Arenado had 1.8 last season and is on pace for about 1.6 this season. He's been nowhere close to the reliable offensive difference maker that Holliday was. And that's not to dump on his value - a guy who simply holds serve offensively and is one of the 2 best defensive players at his position in the game is EXTREMELY valuable. But is that a superstar? Uh......... Ultimately the game has been on Arenado's bad several times this year - and he hasn't come through with any regularity. He's absolutely been a very good, very valuable player. But he's not without his warts and he's not completely without blame for some of these losses. You don't make an irrational contract decision to keep the guy if he isn't someone you can count on to come through in those ABs at better than a barely top 50 rate. |
He killed our lineup for 2 years. Batted .160. No pop. Now he has 10 HR’s in 20 games.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">‘Yankees finding ways to get Matt Carpenter's bat in the lineup’ by <a href="https://twitter.com/eboland11?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@eboland11</a> for <a href="https://twitter.com/Newsday?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Newsday</a>: The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Yankees?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Yankees</a> went from not being able to find enough at-bats for Matt Carpenter to doing whatever they can to keep the ridiculously hot veteran’s bat in the… <a href="https://t.co/KdFwyAOddF">https://t.co/KdFwyAOddF</a> <a href="https://t.co/ALMNpHDrt6">pic.twitter.com/ALMNpHDrt6</a></p>— New York BBWAA (@NYBBWAA) <a href="https://twitter.com/NYBBWAA/status/1546225759869624321?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 10, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> |
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On the seemingly never-ending list of incredibly stupid and wasteful things Mozeliak has done, it's hard to find one obviously worse than extending Matt Carpenter because you thought throwing guaranteed money at him would get him out of a slump. Moe has made many mistakes borne of corner cutting or being a risk-averse sissy. But they at least had some level of logic to them (wrongheaded though it may be - you could point to marching orders from his skinflint owner to justify them). But extending Carpenter just...it just never made a lick of sense at all. |
St. Louis Cardinals and future Hall of Fame slugger Albert Pujols will participate in the Home Run Derby in Los Angeles.
Just days after being an honorary selection to the All-Star Game, St. Louis Cardinals slugger and future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols will participate in the Home Run Derby, as Katie Woo of The Athletic reported. |
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Wow Cards were up 6-0. Dodgers came back and won 7-6. I turned it off the sixth inning and watched something else, local news came on and told the score.
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Sigh. Oli is a bad coach. He wanted to protect Helsley even though the all star break is coming up.
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Maybe Oli was more concerned about the all star game.
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The bullpen stinks. Waino pitched around some jams and made a go of it. They really let him down.
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Remember when the last guy had a roster full of guys on their way to the glue factory and cast-offs from the street but still won 17 straight?
He didn't have this version of Goldy. Or Arenado. Or Mikolas. Or Helsley. His young guys weren't playing like Yepez, Donovan and Edman have played for big chunks of this season. And he won 90 games with that pile of miscreants. Then we fired him because he had the temerity to point out that wasn't good enough. **** John Mozeliak. That's not on Bill Dewitt. Dewitt has his problems, but John Mozeliak's thin skin and frail ego is why Mike Shildt was fired. John Mozeliak is the problem with this organization. He's been given the resources to succeed and squandered them. And after a half-decade of letting his hand-picked window-licking stooge wander the wastelands trying to manage this team, he fell ass-backwards into a career cardinal and loyal organizational soldier who also happened to be an excellent manager. And he fired him in a fit of pique. **** John Mozeliak so very, very much. |
VerHagen was bad before he went on the IL, WTF did they feel the need to bring him up again?
They sent Thompson down to stretch him out to be a starter supposedly? WTF would you do that unless you really ****ed up with your rotation and then don't expect to land jack or shit in a trade? Yea this organization is run like shit from top to bottom. |
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If I was OM the next time we fall behind early (on the road), I put McFarland in and pitch him the next 6-7 innings. Just burn the shit out of him. You can question just about any GM's decisions, they aren't going to be perfect...Veach isn't perfect, far from it...but he is a plus to the organization...Mo is a negative multiplier with his decisions. We have Dickerson, Verhagen, McFarland all taking up roster spots that they don't deserve. Dickerson flat out cannot hit anything over 95. Hopefully OM will sit him on the bench once TON and Bader are back. |
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That's why he got hired to begin with. Marmol will be a good little errand boy. He'll continue to talk about how the organization just needs to get healthy and blame everything that goes sideways on Andrew Knizner. Ollie Marmol is a yes man and nothing more. He's the field equivalent of Mike Girsch. |
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Excellent
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Nah Shildt should have followed MO out the door but shouldn't have been the scapegoat
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Shildt sucked and that's all their is to it. No amount of large numbers or relative rankings will convince him otherwise. |
This doesn’t sound good. Arenado sounds like he wants to hang with the home town cool team.
From MLB.com ST. LOUIS -- After the Dodgers put a major scare into the Cardinals on Tuesday, battled from behind for their 26th comeback victory on Wednesday and then closed the door on the series at Busch Stadium on Thursday, it all looked infinitely familiar to All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado. It reminded him of last September, when the Cardinals coupled good pitching with good hitting, oozed confidence throughout their lineup and played with a fearlessness while winning 17 games straight. “That [Dodgers] offense is probably the best offense in the game, right?” asked Arenado following Los Angeles’ 4-0 victory over the Cardinals on Thursday. “So they probably feel like they are never out of any game. We felt like that last year when we were going through our streak -- we were never out of any game. Right now, we’re just kind of grinding.” |
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From Heyman on MLB.com
Juan Soto declined $440M, 15-year offer from Nats and will be available now. A few reasons he declined: 1. Heavy backloading of deal is tantamount to big deferral 2. $29M AAV is seen as old figure in light of Scherzer, other deals 3. Team is likely to be sold so owner unknown. Why can’t we give him 1/2 billion? What would it take? Walker/O’Neil/Bader and Carlson get us in serious talks? |
Mo ain't giving anyone 500mil
Even though Busch is now a defacto amusement park. |
I wish the Pirates could give someone $100 million.
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Can some of you baseball geeks know where to get an answer?
Is Carp doing this because the go into the first two rows of the short porch in RF? <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Volume up to hear Matt Carpenter absolutely CRUSH this home run 🔊<br><br>His 12th HR in 30 games.<br><br>🎥 <a href="https://twitter.com/MLB?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MLB</a> <a href="https://t.co/vAwacyrX7c">pic.twitter.com/vAwacyrX7c</a></p>— The Athletic MLB (@TheAthleticMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheAthleticMLB/status/1548455323983261698?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 16, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> |
I knew he was going to tear it up for the Yankees.
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I'd think they obviously want Jordan Walker. He's the centerpiece. I'd think Carlson or O'Neill is another must-include piece in that deal. And Masyn Winn probably needs to head to Washington in the deal, too. That deal doesn't completely strip the Cardinals OF and gives Washington a lot of young potentail to build around. The question is if DeWitt would greenlight 15 years and 500M. Seems unlikely. |
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That’s his usual MO. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
So what's the deal with Matt Carpenter becoming Barry Bonds for the Yankees?
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I do that. But I’d need a negotiating window because there’s a non-zero chance that Boras just insists on taking his guy to FA and nobody is worth that for a mere 2.4 seasons. If you can’t get a contract done, take Walker and one of the SPs out of it and I’m still game. |
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Nobody in baseball has a better feel for how much it takes to get a deal done. It allows him to make sure he comes up just an Nth short and still claim he tried. |
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https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/...-hjerpe-687309
True to form. Passed on Brock Porter the highest HS pitcher on the board with a high ceiling for a lower ceiling college pitcher. I don’t hate this guy just not sure you couldn’t have got him in the supplemental round. |
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I'd probably put Hjerpe immediately ahead of McGreevy. I think he's probably immediately no worst than the #6/7 prospect in the system and with as disappointed as I've been in Liberatore at the big league level, I think there's an argument that he's the #1 pitching prospect in the system. Now I wouldn't put him there - I think that's Graceffo and Hence may not be far behind. But when considering polish and proximity, Hjerpe may be higher. It's a fine pick. And when a top prep arm falls like Porter is falling, there's usually a really good reason for it. |
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But that's why I think the Cardinals can get this done. After Alvarez, Walker's the best pure hitting prospect in the game right now. And you have to figure the Nats are going to build their package around the best offensive piece they can get. So that puts the Mets and Cardinals in the drivers seat. We can absolutely overwhelm the Mets package though. Baty and Gorman would wash but beyond that we can start pulling ahead. Walker/Gorman answers the Mets Alvarez/Baty and we can start to pull away from there. |
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Hey you Cardinals fans got Cooper Hjerpe.
DJLN - save your criticism. (More so the guy DJLN was responding to) He is Chris Sale 2.0. His ceiling is plenty high. He went to Oregon State University. I'm not thrilled he went to the Cardinals. The Cardinals should be thrilled he went to the Cardinals. |
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But again, my goal with Gorman is to deal him before people realize he’s a .220 hitter and with Walker - well ya gotta give to get. Juan Soto is the nearest thing any of us have seen to Ted Williams, fellas. He’s absurdly good. |
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Sale threw 99-101. Sale still throws 99 with a decade as a professional under his belt. Being a levery lefty with a sidearm delivery doesn’t make you Chris Sale. He’s a probable mid-rotation arm who may develop into a 2 someday. But he doesn’t have anything in his arsenal that looks to project even at a 70, let alone the two 80 grade pitches Sale had. At 22 he’s a solid selection but I don’t imagine he’s going wow anyone for most of his career. |
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I read somewhere that his 36 homer season a few years back would’ve been 52 in NY. The park truly couldn’t play any better for him. But he’s crushing the ball right now, short porch or no. |
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When he gets Cy Young votes in a few years I am going to remind you that you didnt think of him as a Cy Young candidate, DJLN! Mark my words! Also I didnt know JR was a Cardinals fan. I thought Cardinals were catholic? Lol!!!!! |
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Cardinals are still sitting on Thompson in AAA. He doesn’t have the kind of raw stuff to make mistakes and survive them. And as a kid straight out of college, he’ll make plenty. He also pitched plenty at Oregon and hasn’t pitched in awhile. Bring him online slowly, get him 3-5 appearances and maybe 10-20 IP at the end of the season in A+ and start him out in Springfield next year. |
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OSU proceeded to win 2 more national championships after Oregon threw their Nike money at baseball and failed. Confusing Oregon and Oregon State is like calling a Jayhawk a UK grad, to put it into midwestern terms. That is all. |
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He’s not signing or his medicals are garbage. Hjerpe was a good pick. |
Hjerpe was a good pick I will settle for that and leave you Cardinals to your Cardinalling.
Btw DJ - I didnt mean to come across as angry in that last post I was being tongue in cheek. But it is true that Oregon and Oregon State are two very unfriendly schools. |
Brycen Mautz - there’s your probable fast-tracked lefty reliever.
Sure seems like a below slot guy. Not seeing a ton there. |
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I’d advise against it though - he’s not the kind of profile likely to perform his way into the 1st and as a SR his leverage would suck. So he’d get scalped in the draft next year. So he should sign and probably about 1/3 below slot. But I seem to get that wrong more often than I don’t. He’s a fringe top 100 guy who went at 59. That’s not a massive reach so those guys usually end up at slot. |
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