Even in the case of QB’s, I think CJ Stroud has a very strong argument in 2023. The Texans were bad enough in 2022 to have the #2 overall draft pick. Baltimore was good enough to make the Playoffs even with Lamar missing a bunch of games. Houston suddenly turns into a Playoff team and even wins a Playoff game in dominant fashion despite having 2 of their best receivers missing with injury. Stroud was an absolute game-changer for Houston this season.

I've been asking this forever. And who picks the crews? Is it 100% on Goodell's whim? Is it supposedly performance-based then random? (IE - which conference championship game gets which refs should be random). I've never seen an answer to this question anywhere.

Correct he did and you make a great argument. Hard to beat out the QB of the best team record wise in the NFL.

It's fair to point out that he also got a last place schedule.

Granted, he still made a massive difference for those guys, but a statistical argument at least has to be viewed through that lens. He played in a poor division and with a last place schedule for the rest of the numbers he put up.

I think he deserves some down ballot consideration for sure - but i don't think he should win it.

There are several articles googling "how does the NFL pick playoff refs", all saying the same basic stuff.. it's in the contract between the NFL and refs association, the general process and how it's performance based on calla missed throughout the season... and they lump refs into buckets of WC and the beyond, or no playoffs at all.

I've seen some info on how they do wait for match ups first, but no details on why... maybe they prefer if refs have reffed teams recently or have other parameters.

Same. Hard telling how this will shake out.

Traditionally, the way to beat Baltimore is to get off to big lead and force Jackson to be an actual quarterback, and watch him crumple like an empty beer can.

But that getting off to a big lead bit is easier said than done.

At least they don't have Brad Allen's blind ass out there. Couldn't see a blatant PI if it bit him on the dick.

"other parameters" could be doing a lot of heavy lifting here

This is cherry picking too much.

I don't know how many yards Mahomes had against winning teams last season versus non winning teams (I'm assuming that's teams over .500). I also don't care. The numbers over 17 games are enough. There's too much parity in the NFL to discount some opponents any given week

I don't think they've been the focal point of any playoff game so far and haven't done shit from previous years like start calling everything in the 4th quarter after letting them play for the first 3.. so, whatever they did this year, it's working.

Saw Nick Wright arguing (as is his profession) that the Chiefs should be the favorites on Sunday.

Does anyone believe that?

Baltimore, at home, with their record and with a team that's performed at/near the same level we have both offensively and defensively. They even have a very experienced HC and good STs unit.

That's a really good football team.

So am I alone in thinking they SHOULD be favorites? I mean even if they're 60% to win, they'd still be 40% to lose - that's by no means zero.

This has to be the most stress free I've ever felt going into a Chiefs playoff game.

I never in a million years expected us to get this far after debacles like the Raiders game and the offense being a mess all season.

I'm truly just happy to be here this season.

If we lose, well we probably overachieved anyway, and unlike Bills fans I really don't have anything against Ravens fans or Lamar.

If we win though, it'll be an amazing chapter in the legend of Mahomes, dragging this jumbled mess of a roster to another Super Bowl.

Just feels like we're playing with total house money at this point.

Baltimore -3 / 3.5 feels about right...

All the pressure is on Lamar to win this. If the Chiefs lose, we can be somewhat happy that in a down season the Chiefs still ended up in the AFCCG.

I'd have said Baltimore -4 at home.

I won't give them the full 3 points for HFA (I don't think it matters as much with a veteran, experienced QB on the other side) but I'll give them 2 points on a neutral field, 2 more for HFA.

Baltimore only giving 3 seems like a bet worth making. Or you take the Chiefs and the money line.