We refinanced earlier this week at 3.15

Plan on being here for the rest of my days

This is timing good for me as I'm closing on two properties the same day 3/24. But I'm sure the lowest my bank is going to go is 5% just because they're commercial loans.

We locked in at 3.375 about 2 weeks ago on a house being closed on May 6th. I’m calling first thing tomorrow to see if the rates are lower and if I can have it redone.

Missed the part where the Fed bought up $200MM in Fannie/Freddie/Gennie mortgages. That's concerning.

Same except I close in 15 days.

Why?

It's probably nothing big considering that would figure out to a few hundred mortgages but could be suggestive of a bigger problem beside Beervirus

Discuss,

I’m enjoying your posts in here lately. Thank you. Honestly learning quite a bit.

We will be living for the next likely 7 years, after that our daughter will be out of high school and we can move wherever makes sense at that time.

Oof. That’s not great.

I haven’t been paying attention. It seems that escalated quickly. But I wasn’t paying much attention in 08 either.

What is the opinion here on buying or building in a hot (sellers) market. Renting now and planning on staying long term. We were looking at building before all this, and new builds in our market were going up 4k every 2 weeks.

What are your thoughts on what this will do to the market. I know it's a complicated question.

If it helps, my job is quite secure.

If you’ve got enough cash to get considerable equity in the place I’d say there isn’t a huge problem. If you’ve got to leverage pretty hard I’d pass.

If it were me I’d need to be fairly confident it found a bottom before I did much.

Huh? No.

This action has been reasonably well-telegraphed in financial markets over the last few days. The Fed only has approval to buy securities issued by the federal government or the GSEs (“agencies”). Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have dramatically underperformed recently. The Fed gets meaningfully more bang for its buck by buying MBS than Treasuries, so it makes a lot of sense that they would include them in this program.

I don’t want to get too wonky, but markets have been so broken recently. Easily more than I’ve seen at any point recently and the speed of deterioration was worse than 2008. There are some very basic things in markets that aren’t functioning properly - namely something called Treasury/futures basis trades. If those are so disjointed - and those are truly risk-free trades if you can hold them for a few months - then no other risky asset on the planet will ever end up trading well. So the Fed needs to fix those and that’s what they’re doing.

This doesn’t solve the situation we’re in as there’s no silver bullet. But the Fed is doing what it can and that counts for something. Though it’ll be overwhelmed by the storm that’s still coming. I think we’re in the middle of the 4th inning right now. But valuations in the equity market (vs 0% rates) are starting to become more long-term interesting.

Yes, plz. It'll be a good time to pick up stocks beaten down by everything dropping over the next few months. was looking at ROST v TJX a bit ago. LULU and ULTA might be decent retail adds long term?

Found a bottom? I'm new to the terminology.

I'm doing a 0% down loan. My hesitation in waiting is the way the market is moving. The house we are renting has gone up 120k in 3 years.

Things stop going down.

If you do a $0 down loan and your house loses $5,000 of value in 3 months that is how foreclosures happen. That’s what happened in 2008

This.

Zero down loans still occur?

Yikes!

For certain qualifications, yes.

My job is extremely secure, so I have no concerns about not making my payments.

I'd think that's a different question than overall economic stuff and is kind of independent. We may have thoughts about real estate trends overall, but buying versus building merely seems like a matter of taste and existing inventory.

I find it interesting that people have such different preferences on homes, by the way. I live in a 100+ year old house, and my wife and I love it. It's got nice features and there are no surprises since it's survived for 100+ years. But I know other people who strongly prefer new construction and wouldn't even consider a house like ours.

I appreciate that feedback. I am in a really unique market where there really are no old homes, and homes are being built at a very very rapid pace. Maybe it's not that unique, but inventory doesn't last long, and hasn't for the last 18 months.

The market in my area is what it troubling me. The prices keep going up and I have some worry that I will get priced out of the market. If I found a resale I like I would not hesitate to buy

I am more curious what your thoughts were on the current economic situation and its effect on home buying and building. Certainly low rates encourage buying, but people may be feeling economically insecure.

If you're confident that your job is secure, times like these are the best times to buy. Lower rates, people's hoarding instincts up, and probably fewer people going to open houses? That seems like a recipe for a good deal. And in the long run, I think it's good from a wealth perspective to diversify your assets with home equity as well as traditional savings.

There's a house a few blocks away from mine that's intriguing, and I think it's underpriced. It's also got a guest house, which is the really intriguing part, because I could legitimately make it two rentals. It's too expensive for a cash purchase, which I'd prefer, but it's tempting nonetheless. It's been on the market for a while, so I'm curious if I could throw a lowball offer out there.

Also, I've preached this before, but if your market has any developments or zoning that allows mother-in-law apartments in new construction, or if you can buy an existing home with a mother-in-law apartment, jump on one of those. Having an onsite apartment means you'll always have a good tenant (bad ones won't want to be next to you), and it gives you an income stream that goes up each year while the cost of the mortgage stays the same. I've got one, and it prints money for me with very little work or hassle.

If you could provide 20% equity I'd say do it in a heartbeat, but the risk you face if the economic conditions slow down in your area, the value of your house will decrease and you will have negative equity in your house. If you had some equity, you could handle a little uncertainty, but banks get hella jumpy at negative equity loans.

Exactly the feedback I was looking for. Thank you

I understand

What options would they have if I was making payments?

What does jumpy mean?

I'm a first-time home buyer and working on paying down educational loans, and would rather not put a significant amount down

Pro tip: buy inverse ETFs on Friday, sell them on Monday at open.

The markets tank on bad news, which is constantly building up over the weekend, every weekend. (SH, DWT, etc.)

I feel dirty profiting on the world’s sadness, but it’s easier than short selling and I’ll take whatever I can get right now.

What's an inverse ETF?

SDOW

thank me later

If I tried to explain what a ****ing disaster today was at Amazon with all the cancelled orders due to inability of sites to deliver on time and a complete mess for getting things ready, you wouldn't believe a company this size could be this ****ing backwards.

They could be selling 2-3 times more across most major markets.

back down 10% before open. That 2018 bottoms been holding but we'll break through at some point. I may buy some here today though

edit:. hold on, we moved reserves to 0? whoa, well, **** me

I'm currently going through the closing process on a new construction home. I'm putting 28% down and the home appraised for 30K over our purchase price and my b-hole is still puckered thinking about the potential of the home value cratering in the wake of this virus.

That said, there were 3 separate open houses near me (Chicago) yesterday that appeared very active. One in the condo building next to me and 2 in the building across the streets. Have a co-worker who just sold their condo to a cash buyer over the weekend as well. I've been following the market in my zip code and average days active to contract are still very low. So despite social distancing orders and economic fears, people still seem to be turning out for home purchases here.

Of note, I've owned a 100 yr old bungalow that I loved for its charm and craftsmanship, but I get the biggest smile thinking about the custom built, never farted in, floor to ceiling walk-in, dual rainfall, 8-jet, unicorn of showers waiting for me in our new home.

Circuit breaker tripped in 5 seconds this morning.

We gonna get negative interest rates?

Today’s gonna be brutal. Still searching for the bottom. I think a full “stay in your home no matter what except for emergency travel or errands” is coming. The economy is going to see long lasting effects of this.
Several people in my wife’s NY office tested positive over the weekend, after one guy went to the hospital with pneumonia.

TVIX up another 50% today. You guys are missing out.

Bought TQQQ puts Friday, sold after trading resumed. The weekends are bad for the market for the next couple months, I anticipate.

Do you expect it to keep going up?

No.

What do you guys think of DOG stock

For those of you in Fidelity 401K and only allowed to buy mutual funds, here's a few I'm getting into:

VTSAX ($75 fee)
Fidelity® Blue Chip Growth Fund (FBGRX)
Fidelity® Trend Fund (FTRNX)

Take a look at the performance of those last 5 years. Pretty incredible really. 11-15%/year.

Buy the dip, set and forget. Rule of 7 says 7% doubles every 10 years. 15% every 5.

Holy ****. Someone told me that Love Cattle traded limit down, limit up, and closed limit down on the day. I don’t know what the limit is but my God, the margin calls that fools paid today. Christ.

-3k for the day on DJI.

The VIX is at like peak Financial Crisis levels. We're getting 10% moves everyday. This is wild

4.5. It has been insane.

Cash bid reports from pre lunch and post lunch were wildly different.

Packers were making bank and basically decided to try putting the squeeze on in the middle of this panic. A group of feeders in the south got insulted by the bids and basically shut their gates and told them to increase the bids 15-20 cents or **** off. Some of those feeders are running naked on those pens. It would take some serious balls to do what they're trying to do without being hedged. Time is not on their side, but it has inspired some of the northern feeders to dig in their heels too.

Holy hell. That’s a swinging dick right there.

I really think the frustrations of the last decade are about to come to a boil.

As soon as the southern feeders info got out the "plants are going to have trouble keeping workers on line" rumors flew. When every single little thing is used to extract equity from the industry, eventually shit has to hit the fan.

Amazon to hire 100,000 more workers and give raises to current staff to deal with coronavirus demands

Just got a $2 an hour raise plus a lot of OT! Thank you CoronaVirus!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/amaz...y-workers.html

What the ****? 100,000? Christ.

We could be selling 2-3x's what we are right now in several divisions. We are restrained by human capacity that cannot be replaced with machines yet.

Fair enough.

I buy most of my shit through amazon so I guess I don’t really realize that store closings affect them that much. Because fat boy doesn’t go to the store. How much do they add for the Christmas rush?

at least the market isn't bent over today

Yet.

Green now means nothing.

yeah, great day so far.....


cause the 3k it was down yesterday didn't suck ass.

And man am I getting my ass kicked in 2020 - not just the stock market, but my wife was unemployed for the past four months. Yikes. But thank God she went back to work before all this shit broke out.

A guy I know recently started a shipping/delivery company and I just realized it's Amazon based. Seems like he may have got the ball rolling just in time.

Boeing approaching junk bond status.

737MAX tied the noose and looks like beervirus is gonna kick the chair out from underneath them.

I just looked at their stock price last night and I almost fell out of my chair. It's dropped like 70% in the last 3 months. That's crazy. :spock:

Just received my 3lb bag of pumpkin seeds. Thanks scho63 :thumb:

Probably from China.

DOH!

Pumpkins are grown on every continent but Antarctica. The world's top producers of pumpkins include China, India, Ukraine, the United States, Egypt and Mexico.

Yeah, I got them in 2 days but who knows where the origin is from. Pumpkin seeds contain lots of zinc so they should be good to offset corona.

What investment site do you guys recommend? I've invested in the retirement accounts, but I have not ventured into trading stocks. Help a newbie....

Don't trade stocks! You'll Lose. Invest in mutual funds with a good track record to win.

Glad I sold off my Boeing stock about a year ago when it was nearly $370.

I think it'll drop below $100 by the end of the week.

What broker site do you use?

IBIO up 60% today

Don't you ****ing do this to me IBIO.

Dow breaks 20K.

Someone roll their magic 8 ball and tell me how low Tesla goes.

I was laughing at my friend for cashing in all his investments in actual gold a few years back.

There's no safe place for your money. I had some money in a bond fund and when the fed lowered the rates overnight the bonds lost their ass. The actions of the fed cost me a bunch of money so are they going to send me a check too?
Yeah no.

Circuit breaker hit.

Seems like this happens about every other day right after the press conference.

seems like we lost that support level for the S&P. What a massacre. Down 30-40% in a month

Looks like I was dead wrong.

This isn't like 2008.


Yes. It's much worse.

I'm really glad we pulled a significant amount of cash from our 401k to buy our home months ago.

This shit is past scary.

Bought up a bunch of short term SPY calls about an hour before close.

Holy shit that helped.

Hope your home keeps it's value.

Otherwise it's just another form of losing money in this.

Current strategies outside of IBIO? :D

I've been trading in and out of SPY. Liking your SDOW Friday buy with hold over the weekend to sell on drop Monday. Seems to be a cycle.