Embedding the whole thread since apparently twatter is off limits to non users now.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The spread is roughly designed to be beat by both teams 50:50. So let&#39;s assume the home beats the spread 50% of the time and refs do not affect this (the reasonable null hypothesis)<br><br>Now, let&#39;s have 19 refs officiate 46 games, all of which are the home team covers 50:50...</p>&mdash; Timo Riske (@PFF_Moo) <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1749879812699603024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 23, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In 26% of simulations, the second-lowest ref happens to have a home team record ATS of 17-29 or worse. In other words, our reality is entirely consistent with the idea that refs don&#39;t impact the home team&#39;s result differently.</p>&mdash; Timo Riske (@PFF_Moo) <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1749880539702493402?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 23, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">What about the penalties?<br><br>There is an auto-correlation here. If a team loses ATS, it did worse than expected. There could be a lot of reasons for this, including comitting too many penalties...</p>&mdash; Timo Riske (@PFF_Moo) <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1749881772635046284?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 23, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Another way of phrasing it: Diving into the data, one could find refs who<br><br>- &quot;favor the team from the larger city&quot;<br>- &quot;favor the team further North&quot;<br>- &quot;favor the team with younger players&quot;<br>- &quot;favor the team closer to the city they live in&quot;<br>- &quot;favor [use any 50:50 split you want]&quot;</p>&mdash; Timo Riske (@PFF_Moo) <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1749887190006440405?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 23, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Over a 49 game stretch, using these numbers, what&#39;s the likelihood that a ref calls &quot;only&quot; 46 false starts or fewer?<br><br>It&#39;s 17.8%...<br><br>Even without pointing to the mentioned auto-correlation or the fact that he is one of 19, that isn&#39;t crazy at all.</p>&mdash; Timo Riske (@PFF_Moo) <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1749914823532392810?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 23, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">What&#39;s the likelihood that one of 19 refs calls 62+ home false starts and 46- road false starts over 49 games?<br><br>That would be ~38%. Even more plausible than the 17-29 ATS record we observed.<br><br>Given the auto-correlation, it&#39;s not a surprise to see both happen to the same ref.</p>&mdash; Timo Riske (@PFF_Moo) <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1749915522920042523?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 23, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">One more thing: This a very smart tweet re: Why did the NFL assign that game to Smith in particular?<a href="https://t.co/kCXxVhBGPC">https://t.co/kCXxVhBGPC</a></p>&mdash; Timo Riske (@PFF_Moo) <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1749922439113392593?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 23, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">(There is also the thing that playoff refs are distinct so far. 10 different refs have officiated the 10 playoff games. There are not that many refs left. And when the NFL decided to not give Smith an earlier playoff game, they had no idea the Chiefs would even make it that far)</p>&mdash; Timo Riske (@PFF_Moo) <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1749922742466453552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 23, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Surely Britt Reid wouldn’t be dumb enough to drink and drive two days before flying to the Super Bowl.

No doubt Brady was gifted 4 SBs by Dee Ford, Shanahan, Carroll and our back up offensive line. And Shanahan still didn't learn his lesson from the SB loss with the Falcons doing the exact same thing against us in SB 54. He stopped running the ball when he should have continued. Had he continued running, no way we win that SB. Just saying. But no, with a 20-6 lead with 6:37 to go he starts passing????????????


AMEN!!

LOL, that seems like a lot of work to tell Warren Sharp he's a quack.

I don't think Lamar will struggle because he's dumb. I think he'll struggle because we've played him 4 times, and in those games his stats are:

Passing:
68-121 (56%)
750 yards
4 TDs
2 INTs (1 pick 6)
78.9 QB rating

Rushing:
303 rush yards on 47 attempts (6.4 avg)
3 TDs

It's not like that's awful, but compare that to Mahomes:

Passing:
117-163 (72%)
1479 yards
12 TDs
2 INTs
119.1 QB rating

Rushing:
35 rush yards on 11 attempts (3.2 avg)
0 TDs

Obviously Lamar is a better runner (though Patrick has a knack for running in key situations in the playoffs). But I'm just not all that scared about his ~263 yard average against us vs. Patrick's ~379 yard average against them. Maybe he'll be better this year - we'll see.

You can add a 5th ring with the Tuck Rule, which did not exist before 1999 and did not exist after 2013. He is the only great QB in history to benefit from this bullshit rule. That play was a damn fumble by Brady and should have ended the game. Lucky as hell to get a ring out of that situation.

We’re not the mouth breathing dumb **** on opposing fan’s message board. Your team is gonna take a hard L, and it’s gonna be a rough couple weeks following it. But it suggest filling your time with eating **** pie, queer! Now run and tell that, mother Flocker!

It always comes down to the "trench play" especially when 2 great teams meet.;)

I totally get your point that dumb people do dumb things at the wrong time. But even IF Britt had never done this we still lose that SB with a back up offensive line. Yes, it did not help matters but, just saying.

The more content I consume, the more I don’t even know why the Chiefs would show up Sunday. No need to board any planes. They don’t stand a chance against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.

Their argument is "he's different this year!" ...and then you see he's at 261 yards/game for the regular season (slightly lower the Texans game).

Ravens board has entire thread talking about how this thread is overly confident while they make comments like "wonder how they'll feel when we're up 2 scores," and generally acting like they're an unstoppable force.

Hell, I wouldn't even say this thread is all that confident (not nearly as much as the Bills thread), we're just feeling really damn good about the Chiefs after Sunday night.

It is the same thing every time. They should not have bothered showing up in Buffalo last week with the supposedly unbeatable home field advantage. KC shouldn't have bothered showing up in the Super Bowl against the loaded rosters of the Niners & Eagles. Might as well not even play the games, lol

Reeks of compression socks over there:

Ok grandma, lets get you to bed