Originally Posted by Michael David Smith
But the NFL could easily fix its overtime, without giving up the sudden-death format.
Why is the team receiving the kickoff in sudden-death overtime at an advantage? Because the NFL kicks off from the 30-yard line. If the league moved overtime kickoffs to the 35-yard line (where all kickoffs were placed only a decade ago), the advantage to the receiving team would be less. If it moved kickoffs to the 50-yard line, many teams (even those not coached by Marty Mornhinweg) would choose to kick, and if we moved the kickoff to the opponent’s 30-yard line (obviously a ridiculous proposition), every team would not only choose to kick, but every overtime would start with an onside kick.
Why would teams choose to kick if the kickoff were at the 50-yard line? It’s the golden rule of football strategy, often repeated at this website: field position is fluid. A team kicking off from the 50 would be able to have its kicker hang one high and short, like a coffin-corner punt. From the 50, teams would generally be able to pin their opponents inside the 20-yard line, and inside the 20, as Football Outsiders has previously shown, the team on defense is actually more likely to score next than the team on offense.
So there is a point, probably somewhere between the 30-yard line and the 50-yard line, at which the advantage in sudden-death overtime would actually switch from the receiving team to the kicking team. Where is that point? It doesn’t really matter. We could simply let the teams decide for themselves.
In my improved overtime format, the team captains would meet at midfield for a coin toss, just as they did on Sunday when the Ravens played the Seahawks. But the captain of the Seahawks wouldn’t decide to kick or receive when he won the toss. Instead, he would have to name a yard line where the overtime kickoff would be placed. Then the Ravens’ captain would say whether he wanted to kick or receive. So Mike Holmgren might instruct his captain to have the kickoff spotted at the 43-yard line. Brian Billick would tell his captain, “If they put it anywhere inside the 40, we’ll receive. Otherwise, we’ll kick.” Losing the toss really wouldn’t be any disadvantage, because both teams can determine what they think is a fair spot for the opening kickoff.
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