Ugly Duck |
12-16-2012 05:44 AM |
Why Kansas City Covers
The Raiders have been the worst team in the league over the last six weeks. They have gone 0-6 straight up and 0-5-1 against the spread during this stretch. They have lost five of those six games by 10 or more points, and they are giving up a ridiculous 35.8 points per game during this skid. You could certainly make the argument that Kansas City should be favored given Oakland's recent play.
That’s especially the case when you look at how well the road team has fared in this rivalry. The road squad has won 11 of the last 12 meetings, which is absolutely astounding. Dating back further, the road team is 21-5-1 against the spread in the last 27 meetings. Kansas City is 8-1 against the spread in its last 9 meetings in Oakland.
This play falls into a system that is 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KANSAS CITY) – revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season.
Oakland is 22-46-1 against the spread in its last 69 home games. The Raiders are 18-42-1 against the spread in their last 61 vs. a team with a losing record. Oakland is 1-11 against the spread in home games vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game since 1992. Kansas City is 10-1 against the spread in road games off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more since 1992.
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