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-   -   Cardinals ***OFFICIAL*** 2013 STL Cardinals Thread (https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=269316)

Jewish Rabbi 05-24-2013 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 9707089)
So you still think I'm overrating Rosenthal? Since about this time you posted this lecture for me on Rosenthal, that he shouldn't be in the majors and developing in the minors...........

In his last 16 appearances Cardinals’ eighth-inning reliever Trevor Rosenthal has allowed one run in 14.1 innings, with 24 strikeouts. That’s an 0.63 ERA. And has walked only two of the last 39 batters he’s faced.

Rosenthal’s strikeout rate of 13.5 per nine innings is fifth-highest among qualifying NL relievers. According to STATS LLC, Rosenthal has the fourth-best swing-miss rate (34.2 percent) among qualified NL relievers.

I guess I'm confused. You want Rosenthal to be a starter next year, but are happy that he won't have anywhere near the innings this year to accomplish that feat?

BigRedChief 05-24-2013 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi (Post 9707298)
I guess I'm confused. You want Rosenthal to be a starter next year, but are happy that he won't have anywhere near the innings this year to accomplish that feat?

I'm evolving.We don't have a closer that we can count on for 2 years. It takes 2 years for Tommy John pitchers to return to 100% of their previous success. Waino is just the latest example.

Mott will not be ready next year. If he is, great.Does anyone think he is going to come out of spring training firing 98 mph fastballs all season without any issues?

Mujica works out, great. Can we really count on him continuing his current success for 2 years? Rosenthal is the only option that I can see that could have success for the next 2 years. Our future starting rotations can be great without Rosenthal.

We will trade some of our pitching. I disagree with that option but its reality. Young stud cost controlled pitching is how we can compete with $2 BILLION TV contracts. But, again realistically it will happen.

I count 12 possible starters in the pitching pipeline, not counting future draft picks.

Waino
Miller
Wacha
Martinez
Lynn
Garcia
Jenkins
Maness
Lyons
Gast
Swaggerty
Westbrook (too many young arms. Mo may tolerate 3 youngsters but not 4 in a 5 man rotation next season.)

VAChief 05-24-2013 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 9707587)
I'm evolving.We don't have a closer that we can count on for 2 years. It takes 2 years for Tommy John pitchers to return to 100% of their previous success. Waino is just the latest example.

Mott will not be ready next year. If he is, great.Does anyone think he is going to come out of spring training firing 98 mph fastballs all season without any issues?

Mujica works out, great. Can we really count on him continuing his current success for 2 years? Rosenthal is the only option that I can see that could have success for the next 2 years. Our future starting rotations can be great without Rosenthal.

We will trade some of our pitching. I disagree with that option but its reality. Young stud cost controlled pitching is how we can compete with $2 BILLION TV contracts. But, again realistically it will happen.

I count 12 Possible Starters, not counting future draft picks.

Waino
Miller
Wachau
Martinez
Lynn
Garcia
Jenkins
Maness
Lyons
Gast
Swaggerty
Westbrook (too many young arms. Mo may tolerate 3 youngsters but not 4 in a 5 man rotation next season.)

Garcia is toast. Swaggerty projects more as middle to set up reliever, but the rest are viable options at this time.

BigRedChief 05-24-2013 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VAChief (Post 9707594)
Garcia is toast. Swaggerty projects more as middle to set up reliever, but the rest are viable options at this time.

Thats still 10 for 5 spots. Waino, Miller and Wacha have 3 of those 5 locked up. And where is Martinez? Thats really 6 for 1 spot. Would you still use Rosenthal as a starter?

'Hamas' Jenkins 05-24-2013 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 9707089)
So you still think I'm overrating Rosenthal? Since about this time you posted this lecture for me on Rosenthal, that he shouldn't be in the majors and developing in the minors...........

In his last 16 appearances Cardinals’ eighth-inning reliever Trevor Rosenthal has allowed one run in 14.1 innings, with 24 strikeouts. That’s an 0.63 ERA. And has walked only two of the last 39 batters he’s faced.

Rosenthal’s strikeout rate of 13.5 per nine innings is fifth-highest among qualifying NL relievers. According to STATS LLC, Rosenthal has the fourth-best swing-miss rate (34.2 percent) among qualified NL relievers.

While he's obviously turned into a good reliever, his success as a reliever does not necessarily excuse not stretching him out as a starter.

You could make a fair case that the team would have been better off had they stretched him out and given him a starter's setup at the beginning of the season, calling him up when Gast got the call.

I think we'd all also feel more comfortable about our rotation going forward, although the bullpen would be a ****ing disaster.

With that said, I think that having him pitch a year in the pen isn't necessarily a bad thing for his development. It worked perfectly well for Wainwright in 2006, and although he isn't getting stretched out, he is getting used to major league hitting, and he's slowly learning how to pitch rather than throw.

tl;dr: both viewpoints have merit.

'Hamas' Jenkins 05-24-2013 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 9707587)
I'm evolving.We don't have a closer that we can count on for 2 years. It takes 2 years for Tommy John pitchers to return to 100% of their previous success. Waino is just the latest example.

Mott will not be ready next year. If he is, great.Does anyone think he is going to come out of spring training firing 98 mph fastballs all season without any issues?

Mujica works out, great. Can we really count on him continuing his current success for 2 years? Rosenthal is the only option that I can see that could have success for the next 2 years. Our future starting rotations can be great without Rosenthal.

We will trade some of our pitching. I disagree with that option but its reality. Young stud cost controlled pitching is how we can compete with $2 BILLION TV contracts. But, again realistically it will happen.

I count 12 possible starters in the pitching pipeline, not counting future draft picks.

Waino
Miller
Wacha
Martinez
Lynn
Garcia
Jenkins
Maness
Lyons
Gast
Swaggerty
Westbrook (too many young arms. Mo may tolerate 3 youngsters but not 4 in a 5 man rotation next season.)

Lyons and Maness are not major league starters. The organization will even tell you that. They really like Lyons in the role Rzep was supposed to fill: lefty with breaking pitches that are hell on LHB, but who can go multiple innings/batters.

Gast is just a touch over replacement level as a starter, IMO, but he'll never be a great LHR because he doesn't have an effective breaking ball.

**** Garcia in his labia meat shoulder.

Wainwright
Lynn
Miller
Wacha

That leaves a fifth spot for Martinez, Rosenthal, Jenkins, or Swagerty.

Swagerty is coming off of TJ surgery (still hasn't appeared in a game since '11) and is a 24 year old in ****ing A ball. Stop it.

Jenkins is getting his ****ing teeth kicked in at A ball.

Realistically, you have six legitimate guys for five spots, and that assumes that Martinez can continue to develop as a starter (and can handle the workload), and that Rosenthal can develop as a starter.

BigRedChief 05-24-2013 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 9707717)
Lyons and Maness are not major league starters. The organization will even tell you that. They really like Lyons in the role Rzep was supposed to fill: lefty with breaking pitches that are hell on LHB, but who can go multiple innings/batters.

Gast is just a touch over replacement level as a starter, IMO, but he'll never be a great LHR because he doesn't have an effective breaking ball.

**** Garcia in his labia meat shoulder.

Wainwright
Lynn
Miller
Wacha

That leaves a fifth spot for Martinez, Rosenthal, Jenkins, or Swagerty.

Swagerty is coming off of TJ surgery (still hasn't appeared in a game since '11) and is a 24 year old in ****ing A ball. Stop it.

Jenkins is getting his ****ing teeth kicked in at A ball.

Realistically, you have six legitimate guys for five spots, and that assumes that Martinez can continue to develop as a starter (and can handle the workload), and that Rosenthal can develop as a starter.

I would mostly agree with your evaluations. But, you are making my point also.

  1. We have realistic options. We can use Rosenthal as a closer.
  2. We have no business trading our young pitchers. You can never have enough pitching.

'Hamas' Jenkins 05-24-2013 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 9707745)
I would mostly agree with your evaluations. But, you are making my point also.

  1. We have realistic options. We can use Rosenthal as a closer.
  2. We have no business trading our young pitchers. You can never have enough pitching.

1. Having only six legitimate options for five spots at SP should not point to you using the sixth guy as a permanent reliever. Look at the attrition rates in modern pitching staffs. You're effectively moving your entire army to the front line. If the enemy penetrates it at all, you're risking an encirclement.

2. Who argued differently?

BigRedChief 05-24-2013 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 9707756)
2. Who argued differently?

wasnt saying someone was thinking different. Just that its an obvious conclusion. But, watch, we will trade one of our studs at the trade deadline.

Jewish Rabbi 05-24-2013 08:52 PM

Unless Westbrook just doesn't recover from injury, I would be surprised if we didn't pick up his option next year. Too many rookies/unknowns in the rotation going forward.

Jewish Rabbi 05-24-2013 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 9707765)
wasnt saying someone was thinking different. Just that its an obvious conclusion. But, watch, we will trade one of our studs at the trade deadline.

For what? This team is fairly stacked with position players. We're also going to add Carp and Wacha to the pitching staff (bullpen?) by the end of the year.

BigRedChief 05-24-2013 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi (Post 9707780)
For what? This team is fairly stacked with position players. We're also going to add Carp and Wacha to the pitching staff (bullpen?) by the end of the year.

Bullpen or maybe a top of the line SS?

I'd bet real money by the trading deadline next year that one of our young stud pitchers is traded.

JFC. I'm strongly against trading any pitchers.

'Hamas' Jenkins 05-24-2013 09:09 PM

I'd be perfectly content with them moving Jenkins. I just don't see that kid ever developing, and I don't see them getting much of anything for him. I have no idea how he made the top 100 list this year.

BigRedChief 05-24-2013 09:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 9707833)
I'd be perfectly content with them moving Jenkins. I just don't see that kid ever developing, and I don't see them getting much of anything for him. I have no idea how he made the top 100 list this year.

Sounds like a loser trade for us.

We don't get shit in the trade and we give up on a pitcher that one day could possibly be a #3-#5 MLB pitcher. Why not just hang on to him and see if it ever clicks?

BigRedChief 05-24-2013 09:21 PM

You guys watching the game. Here's a stat I heard scully say...........

When Lynn pitches and the Cardinals score 3 or more runs, he is 22-4 for his career.

Seems massively good to me. Hamas, is that a high winning % for a #3 pitcher with 3 runs of support?


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