I still don't know how DM got that deal done with Salvy Perez, thats highway robbery right there. If the upcoming players in the next few drafts were smart, they'd cross his agents off their list.

Don't worry about Sal. He'll get his money when Hudler takes him to the Yanks

Oh, and if anyone feels like yelling at a sportswriter this morning, David Schoenfield from ESPN picked the Royals to finish #18, with a record of 79-83.

Dayton talked about this the other week when I saw him.

When they're working with a young Latin player who didn't sign for much initially, those guys are more willing to sign extensions early that pay them much more in the non-arb years but less down the road.

For Sal, he has made much more in 2012, 2013 and 2014 than he would have otherwise ($3.25 million compared to about a million in non-arb salary). That early security is worth a lot.

In COMPLETELY UNRELATED NEWS... Yordano Ventura originally signed for $28k...

He's probably all about the ZIPS projections (which are awful, IMO).

Whatever formula ZIPS is using makes no sense to me. It's extremely conservative and particularly hard on young players.

I mean, it predicts Mike Trout - a guy who has hit .326 and .323 in the major leagues - to be a .302 hitter this year. Just silly.

There are some legit reasons to think we might lose even without injuries (Guthrie's ability to get outs with RISP may have just been blind luck in 2013, who knows with Vargas, maybe none of our young hitters improve), but to me thats at the 10-15% point of the probability distribution. To actually predict 79 wins seems kinda bold. We did get rid of Getz and Frenchy, and our #5 spot won't feature Mendoza, come on, thats got to be worth whatever number of wins he may be dinging us for having the AL's best ERA last year.

Regarding Boras\Hosmer... Boras is unique in all of sports. I read somewhere (years ago on the ESPN boards I believe) that he and his clients treat their relationship as a partnership, not a client\rep like most agents. He is there to make MONEY, period... he factors things like, exposure, longevity, playing time etc... but for monetary considerations alone... not the sake of the player. Certain players have told him things such as "I'd be willing to go here because i like so-and-so" and Boras has been stalwart in reminding the player that this is business and will be treated as such... He will not negotiate special deals (aka Hometown discounts, etc).. He maximizes everything, short term and long term and he handles it ALL.. Most his players have little to no say until it's time to sign the dotted line.

Not sure how true most of that is.

Projection systems have a few major flaws, IMO:

1) Consistent underrating of young players (have no ability to show progression for young guys)
2) Blindness to outliers (Guys like Guthrie or Chen, who have outpitched peripherals their entire careers - 5+ years - can't be separated from guys like Jeremy Hellickson, who don't have the background of outpitching peripherals.
3) Inability to track defensive effects. (Because defensive metrics are bad/unreliable, there is no good way to plug them into a projection tool. This hurts defensive clubs like the Royals in terms of projecting run prevention).

Fielding Independent Pitching is great on paper and tells you some about a pitcher as an individual. But in real life, there actually IS a defense behind that pitcher.

The 2013 Royals were not lucky.They were not fluky. Their record was right where their runs scored/runs allowed said it should have been.

Just realized something with all his Hosmer free agency in 4 years talk. The new rules with QO's are going to make those situations where a team trades off a player they think they will lose in the last year of arbitration much less common.

That first round draft pick is going to be worth something, teams are probably going to just let their players play it out, extend the QO, and let them walk. If we were contemplating a Greinke type of deal today, you can't just look at the players you are trading for, now you mentally have to factor in that by making the trade you will not be getting that sandwich pick, and the other side probably won't be willing to boost their offer to make up for it.

If I was a good player, I would want Boras. If I was an agent, I would try to be Boras. I completely 100% agree with his basic philosophy, which is often in conflict with my desire as a Royals fan to see our best players leave some money on the table and stay.

Boras' philosophy is pretty simple: it is impossible to know what your value is unless you test free agency. There is obviously a risk of being injured or declining, but if the stats predict that a decline is unlikely, then what you are giving up for security is often too big of a price to pay.

Even if you love your team and you want to stay, even if you want to give the team a "hometown discount", Boras would still advise you to test free agency. Maybe you were thinking you were worth 10AAV so you were thinking about offering to stay for an extension of 8.5AAV as a friendly hometown discount. If you go to free agency though, you might find out to your utter shock that the market has changed and you are now really worth 18AAV. You had no idea and maybe even Boras didn't know, but you don't find out until you test it, then you go back to the team you love, forget about that 8.5AAV nonsense and say "listen guys, I can get 18. Come on, you gotta help me out here, at least offer me 15 and we can talk".

Yes but at the same time, it's going to give the player more value on the short term. Not only are you getting the renta-player, but you're getting a pick at the end of it too. So he could be potentially worth "more" to a team than previously. So i'm not sure how much it's gonna sway it one way or another.

Oh I agree wholeheartedly, the players are now treating the "game" as a straight up business as well. Before this was almost exclusively the Owners' rights.

Sucks for the fan at times, as you want to become attached to the great players with teams.

Only if you trade for the player before the start of the season. Half-season rentals don't bring back the comp pick.

True, but the trade would have to be made before the final season begins in that case. No more deadline deals and half-year rentals.