The Chiefs have lost their grip on the AFC’s No. 1 seed and enter the season finale in need of some help. Unless the Chiefs beat the Broncos and the Titans lose this weekend to the Texans — a combination that some computer simulations give just a 20% chance of happening — the Chiefs will find themselves in a position Mahomes has not yet experienced. As participants, not spectators, for NFL’s Wild Card Weekend.
“We understand that we can still go out there and do whatever we want to do,” Mahomes said. “It’s just going to take us getting better each and every week.” That’s true. Even if the Chiefs wind up as the No. 2 seed (or worse) in the AFC playoffs — which, again, carries an 80% likelihood — they can still make it to a third straight Super Bowl. They could still host a fourth straight AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium. Could still win the whole dang thing.
But they’ve made their work tougher. That’s all. The forecasting site FiveThirtyEight says the Chiefs have an 8% worse chance of winning the Super Bowl if they’re the No. 2 seed as opposed to No. 1. If they fall further than No. 2 (which would require a loss to the Broncos), they’d be in an even more precarious position. The history backs it up. And there are some daunting propositions in the present, too.
The past eight AFC teams to reach the Super Bowl have been aided by a first-round bye, a luxury afforded only the No. 1 seeds in the newly-designed NFL format that squeezes in a seventh playoff team from each conference. The 2012 Ravens were the last to get to the NFL’s championship game without a bye. (The frequency of that occurrence will increase, of course, now that only one team receives a bye. The top seed will not hold serve at the same rate all alone.) Nevertheless, it does demonstrate the difficulty of winning three consecutive playoff games — one of which could be on the road — as compared to just two to reach the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs are still plenty good enough to get there again, but it won’t be as easy as they made it appear for two years. Even if their loss to the Bengals — their first defeat in more than two months — has done little to affect your belief in their ceiling, the task would be tougher as a No. 2 seed than it’s been at any point in the Mahomes era. They could potentially stand at the craps table to roll an additional time, hoping the dice don’t turn up seven.
And by the way, the AFC field is formidable. More formidable than it’s been either of the past two seasons, when the Chiefs breezed through it. The Chiefs beat some quality teams to reach the Super Bowl. This year, the opposition is statistically better, and that’s going to be true no matter where the Chiefs end up — the No. 1 seed, No. 2 seed or worse. While their most likely finish is the No. 2, which garners a Wild Card Round matchup against the last playoff team to get in, it’s no picnic. It could equal a third matchup with the Chargers, a team that beat the Chiefs once and took them to overtime a second time.
A bit more difficult than sitting at home for the weekend, yeah? With last Sunday’s loss to the Bengals, the Chiefs have put themselves in a position in which their path to the Super Bowl might include the Chargers, Bills and Titans. They’ve lost to all three teams this season.
In winning the Super Bowl to cap the 2019 season, Chiefs’ route included wins against Houston and Tennessee, who ranked 16th and 10th, respectively, in Football Outsiders total DVOA, a metric that rates each team while accounting for strength of schedule and other equalizing metrics.
A year ago, the Chiefs beat the Browns and Bills, ranked 18th and fourth in the same metric. This year, the AFC playoff field could include four other teams ranked among the top-11 in total DVOA — Buffalo is third, New England fourth, Indianapolis ninth and the Chargers 11th. (The Chiefs are sixth, in case you’re wondering.) The Chargers are third in offense DVOA, better than any offense the Chiefs have seen in the playoffs the past two years. That could be the first-round opponent.
The Colts, Patriots and Bills all have better defense DVOA scores than any opponent the Chiefs saw the last two postseasons.
That’s all to say this: The Chiefs are in a tougher spot than they were at this time last year, when they decided to give their starters the final week of the regular season off work because they already had guaranteed themselves a relaxing Wild Card Weekend at home. But it doesn’t mean impossible. Far from it. The Vegas sportsbooks still give the Chiefs the best odds to win the AFC Championship and return to a third straight Super Bowl. FiveThirtyEight likes their chances in its forecast, too, even as Tennessee is staring at a one fewer game to get there. If given the Chiefs or the field, however, both those metrics are taking the field. Which basically summarizes to this: Difficult? Absolutely. But doable? There’s no one better positioned for it.
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How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed?
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