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You're never going to stay ahead in this league by overpaying your best players in their declining years. Belichick knows this. That's why he'll continue the run of success for another decade.
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I'm a big, huge fan of Welker, but he has seen his drops go up exponentially the last couple years, including in key, key situations. I want him back, but I understand not giving him Megatron type money. I think his league-wide utility isn't as great as an elite #1 WR, as he needs a highly accurate QB to take advantage of his skill-set, but Manning is definitely a guy who could make use of his skills as well as anybody, so his value to the Broncos is higher than it is to many teams and, of course, it weakens another top AFC contender. |
**** you, Denver.
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We watched KC go down because of an asshat from NE with a huge ego. Maybe Billichick thinks he is smart enough to cover that hole. I hope he tries..... |
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I honestly think NE has better options than Welker, assuming Gronkowski & Hernandez are healthy (Tavon Austin?).
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Frankly last year we had two legitimate pass-catching threats -- Wes and whichever TE was healthy in any given week, because Hernandez and Gronk played, I think, precisely one full game together. Assuming they can stay healthy, then losing Wes means we're still at 2. In all honesty, we need a Z more than we need Welker back. A legitimate, outside the hash marks WR would make this offense go better than another guy who does the middle of the field, because AH and Gronk can cover that area just fine. Ultimtely, I don't know how much money Welker wants. If he's thinking $10MM per year for four or five years then, yeah, I can't really see paying that. I'm sure Brady isn't going to be happy to lose him though. Wes is one of his best friends on the team. His work ethic and toughness are also very hard to match. |
In the last 2 years - Welker accounts for 29% of the passes caught, 15% of the yards and 20% of the TDs caught from Brady... Tom does more with less, obviously, but those are huge numbers to fill if they let Wes walk.
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Ultimately, he's replaceable ASSUMING the TEs stay healthy. Edelman can give us 60% or so of Welker, the two TEs being healthy can give us more (they will be targetted more) and having a better Z will help quite a bit also. You also can't assume that he will be as productive the next two years as he was the last two years. He's the wrong side of 30. At some point, production drops, and usually dramatically. I doubt, knowing Welker, that that happens immediately or anything, but again, if he wants 4-5 years at $10 per, then that's a pretty big problem. |
Oh, and I guess I should also say, nice pickup, assuming he signs with Denver. He's WAY better than Stokley.
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