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****The Official 2019 STL Cardinals Thread****
(https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=320239)
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/HWlr78kjRA">pic.twitter.com/HWlr78kjRA</a></p>— T-Man (@troycupp) <a href="https://twitter.com/troycupp/status/1115929089418743808?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
LMAO |
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Just from my eyes, that if O'Neill gets 2 AB's in a game, something positive happens or he lays off that slider out of the zone better.
Hamas/DJ or any other stat educated baseball geek know if this is true or not? Know where I should look to confirm or find out its a BS theory? |
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But a quick and dirty breakdown that probably kinda submarines your thought here: As a starter: 28 games, 116 PAs (suggesting he generally gets a full game's worth of PAs) and a triple slash of .239/.267/.440 -- OPS of .708 w/ 6 bombs and 15 RBI. As a sub: 43 games, 43 PAs (so...y'know, generally only a single AB) and a triple slash of .289/.372/.605 w/ 3 bombs and 11 RBI. At least to this point in his career and over admittedly small sample sizes, he's been MUCH better in short spurts than as a starter. He's actually been pretty lousy as a starter. Now there's an interesting counterpoint here: Vs SP 1st time through the order: .182/.206/.364 Vs SP 2nd time through: .318/.346/591 Vs SP 3rd time through: .350/.381/.700 Vs. reliever: .243/.303/.457 Again - we're working with prohibitively small sample sizes and the bottom line is that EVERY hitter does better the 2nd and 3rd times they see a SP, but there is some evidence that if he gets a look at a P a 2nd time, he's in pretty nice shape and it's really just a catastrophically lousy 1st time through the order that has kept his numbers as a starter down. And when you look at his PAs vs. relievers and compare those to his numbers as a sub (78 PAs vs. relievers; only 43 total PAs as sub, some of which would've been vs. the starter so lots of PAs vs. relievers came as a starter) you can see that his relatively poor performance levels vs. relievers as a whole when contrasted against his really good numbers as a sub means that when he's starting, he's getting WRECKED by the first relief pitcher to come into the game. So if you start him you get a shitty PA, 1-2 pretty good PAs and then 1-2 pretty lousy ones as the matchups start in the late innings (whether he gets 1 or 2 good PAs in a game depends on the opposing manager leaving the starter in to face him a 3rd time). If you bring him off the bench, you're probably getting one pretty decent PA. So there's some merit to the idea, but there's also an acknowledgement that in the early and late innings you're probably giving a couple PAs away. There is a school of thought that a hitter like O'Neill needs regular ABs to keep his swing sharp and perform. I'm philosophically opposed to that idea. The only guys that DON'T benefit from regular ABs are HoFers and complete scrubs. 80% of the guys on major league rosters could stand to benefit from getting 20+ PAs/week. But y'know what? That's not a reason to keep sending a guy out there that isn't performing. You earn your ABs in this league and if you can't earn them, I'm not gonna send you out there - full stop. Now that's not to say that I don't think he deserves more time - he absolutely does. And maybe more exposure will help him get over the lousy ABs early in games when a guy like him could do so much to set a tone. Fowler damn sure isn't doing anything to keep the job. |
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Not enough evidence to back up my eyeball test theory. But, he's still a better option than Fowler and if he doesn't start, pull Ozuna late in the game for his defense. |
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In his first five games in Peoria, he's 10-for-21 with as many extra-base hits (six) as strikeouts (six) and .542 on-base percentage. He's slugging 1.000. In his first 68 games in the minors, Gorman has hit .306/.393/.605 with 52 RBIs. He has 82 strikeouts and 79 hits in 258 at-bats. |
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Against relievers as a starter, he's garbage. Against relievers as a sub, he's outstanding. That means situational deployment for him is MASSIVE. If he's a starter and the opposing manager gets to dictate the terms of engagement (i.e. he gets to put the reliever in to face O'Neill and gets to choose who that reliever is), then O'Neill can be picked apart. But when Shildt gets to dictate terms - keep him on the bench until the right matchup comes along - then he's really effective. So it's an argument to keep him on the bench because he's a higher variance player. And your other chess move in that sequence then becomes putting Martinez in RF as the starter because Martinez really isn't high variance. At least not as much as O'Neill. So you start Martinez and look for your spots with O'Neill. And you DFA Dexter Fowler. (pleasepleasepleaseplease let that be why you called a 3p press conference today, Cardinals. Pleeeeeeaaaaaaase.....) |
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And as a 19 yr old in full-season ball, no less. Man that's an impressive start. I could live without the 25% K rate but the 10% walk rate will play if the power holds. That gives you 150 Ks and 60 BBs over a season...eh, okay. If he's a 35 HR hitter with that kind of plate discipline, it's roughly what Eugenio Suarez did last season. And Suarez is a credible defender on his good days; not a good one by any stretch. If Gorman can continue on a similar arc and make the bigs by 22 as a player roughly on par with the 2018 version of Eugenio Suarez, you gotta consider that a W. Especially considering that he'd be doing it from the L side (where we badly need it) and in a park less favorable to hitters than GAB where Suarez hits. If he's gonna step forward into real anchor tenant status he's gonna need one of 2 things; a reduction in K-BB rates (maybe something more akin to Rhys Hoskins?) or a HUGE step forward defensively. I mean that's essentially what Matt Champan was last season; elite defensive 3b with good power and some swing/miss in his game with tolerable BB rates. |
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Blues are getting too much press so Dollar Bill needs to get their names back in the paper. "Guys, we're sorry about that Harper thing...no, stop, wait - PLEASE GET OFF BASEBALL REFERENCE WE KNOW ABOUT BRYCE HARPER AND DEXTER FOWLER!!!!.....okay, you're back - good. Now let me tell you about the new official shoelace sponsor of the St. Louis Cardinals..." At best its an extension for Bader/Flaherty. More likely is that Reyes was picking up his bags when he got to Memphis and his arm physically detached from his body. |
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WTF? We have all these 3B/1B talent in the minors and this is what you lock up?
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cardinals?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Cardinals</a> appear to have worked out an agreement with Matt Carpenter, whose guaranteed deal expires at the end of this season, according to a source, working for confirmation. <a href="https://t.co/sooNxzOJhF">https://t.co/sooNxzOJhF</a></p>— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) <a href="https://twitter.com/dgoold/status/1116064057621188609?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> |
Of course it is.
It wouldn't be the Cardinals if they weren't putting stupid PR bullshit ahead of making the club better. "HEY! Look at all these awesome young corner IF prospects we have! Let's acquire a 1b, extend him long-term, move our existing 1b over to 3b where he isn't actually very good and then extend HIM long-term!!!!" ****ing brilliant. This team is so goddamn stupid. |
Does a two-year extension actually block any of the Cardinals key guys?
I mean, maybe at the end of that period, Gorman is ready for a late season call, but those guys all look 3 years out to me. |
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Matt Carpenter gets $39 million for ‘20 and ‘21 combined and another $18.5m for ‘22 if he gets 1,100 plate appearances over the first two years, per source.</p>— Mark Saxon (@markasaxon) <a href="https://twitter.com/markasaxon/status/1116074248752250885?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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I'd have assumed 2022 as his likely ETA as well, but you don't have to squint too terribly much to see him ready sooner than that. And even if 2022 IS when he's ready, Carpenter will either play well enough to amass those 1100 plate appearances or he won't and the $40 million you gave him for those 2 seasons just gets tossed onto the big flaming pile of wasted money all up and down this roster. Moreover, it's kinda folly to project runways on guys who are doing things that historically aren't done at Gorman's age. Granted, there's still plenty of reasons he could fail, but guys with that kind of upward trajectory tend to move faster than we would expect/project. Pujols was terrorizing A ball one year, starting opening day the next. Soto didn't even take that long. Acuna went from strong talent to #1 guy in baseball in the span of about 12 weeks. Truly 'precocious' talents do weird shit sometimes and what we've done here is ensure that Gorman can't. We had an option for 2020 that we could've picked up and had a much clearer picture for 2021. |
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Edit: I guess he did put up a 2.8 WAA last season but I still hate this. |
What's next? We acquire Albert Pujols at the trade deadline?
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Was a not difficult to obtain vesting option for age 36 really needed?
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Defensively limited guys in their mid-late 30s are flying off the shelves. You can't get one of those dude's to sign a deal for less than $20 million/yr these days. The best part? I mean the absolute best part. Say it with me now. Mozeliak signed someone to a contract and what does that mean? You guessed it: No Trade Clause. Never change, Moe. Never change. |
Couldn't sign Harper to a 10 year deal because they'd have to pay him into his 30's but...…………….
Eyeroll |
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Can't give Harper $25 million for his age 37 season (which will be TEN YEARS FROM NOW), but we can give it's 2021 equivalent to Matt Carpenter for HIS age 37 season and as a bonus get absolutely nothing but decline years for the privilege. The guy on my Cardinals board used the exact right phrase (one that I will forever be attempting to work into meetings at least once) - it was a remarkable display of aggressive stupidity. |
Better hope the NL gets the DH.
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****ing reeruned.
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Oh. I was assuming this year was part of the contract. Yikes, didn’t look closely.
Very Mozeliak-ish move. And that’s not a complement. |
Mozeliak treats elite players like Rachel Phelps and good ones like George Steinbrenner.
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You could have given half of that extension to Pham, refrained from the Miller deal, signed Goldschmidt to at least 3 million less in AAV, and had a lineup of
Carpenter Pham Harper Goldschmidt Ozuna Wong DeJong Molina And still have been able to use Bader as a late inning CF replacement for Pham, who would go to left, for the same ****ing money in AAV. Christ, Mozeliak is awful. |
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I read up on the top shelf talent in the minors that you and DJ mentioned earlier. None are top shelf defensively. They don’t suck but there is not a future Arenado among them. So they could DH their first year, right? That said...... they are probably going to be better than Carp at 3B. |
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Plus, looking at it, the Cardinals could have played hardball there. Based on recent market, he would not have gotten anything close to 3/55 after this year.
2/35 probably would have been about top end for him. |
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Ozuna is the most frustrating player in baseball. Hits a double steals a base and scores first run off hustle and grit.
Then drives a runner from 1st to 3rd and gets picked off first over running the base for no ****ing reason. McCarver lit him up. |
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Who the last left handed pitcher the Cards had that was actually good? How is it possible to be this inept at developing or signing a decent left handed reliever who just needs to get lefties out and not give up HR?
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Rick Ankiel was a generational lefty, and before Matheny destroyed him, Siegrist was a beast.
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Putting aside the asine move by Mo today and the broke dick Fowler still starting notwithstanding.......You got to give it up for the team in this series. The Dodgers have a loaded lineup. Winning the NL championship would surprise no one. We have totally owned them in these 3 games. Pitching was solid. The offense woke the **** up. Schilt made the right bullpen moves.
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With Clayton Kershaw pitching like peak Koufax they managed to lose not one but TWO playoff series to a Mike Matheny led ballclub. That's like losing to Kim Anderson when Michael Jordan is your shooting guard. No, the Dodgers are just paper tigers and will forever be our bitches. Kick rocks, LAD. |
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Could Ozuna actually regain his power consistently? If he does, it could be an interesting summer (provided they finally cut ties with Fowler). |
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Baseball Savant puts the Ozuna gif into their 404 error page.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/oops |
Fire that turd Mo
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Anyone else see how much of a dumpster fire Rosenthal has been so far this season for the Nats? Wowza. Dude cannot throw a strike to save his life.
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He treated him worse than Bowman and poor Bowman looked about ready to start lobbing them in their lefty because his right arm hurt so bad. His return last year was just excruciating and not just because we knew what was going to happen. It was just sad watching the dude try to throw. You could see that his arm was just in tatters and that he was trying all kinds of weird shit with his delivery to protect it. He was all but shot putting the ball up there at times to avoid stressing that shoulder any further. But man, Siegrist was a monster and Matheny absolutely torched him. Probably cost him a deal not unlike what Miller ended up getting. Siegrist is $20+ million poorer because of Mike Matheny. |
Throwing out the TLR getaway day lineup and Wacha is getting piss pounded as well. Glad I have today off to watch it.
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To anyone not fortunate enough to be able to watch this game:
However bad Wacha's line score may look - he actually looks worse from the mound. He has NOTHING today. Fastball started at 91 and he can't keep it away from the top of the zone. Cutter's doing nothing, curveball can only be used up because it doesn't have the break to start in the zone and dive under a bat (so you can only use it to steal strikes when the hitter gives up). So he can't set batters up because his fastball is gonna get smoked unless he throws it for a ball. He can't get enough run on it to get it inside to righties and the cutter can't do anything to lefties because it's spinning. He's a sitting duck out there and it's frustrating that he was allowed to hit for himself in the 2nd, let alone give up 4 in the 3rd. You could tell from the first batter that he just didn't have it today. When they got the lead, they were able to undo any damage he had done and start anew. With a day off tomorrow, an extra reliever in the pen and 2-3 guys out there with starters backgrounds, that should've been a bulllpen day from the 3rd on. Really bad hook from Shildt. |
Well batting practice day continues and the Cards amazingly have the lead in the 5th 8-7.
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But April in St. Louis? This has just been a really weird one. |
****ing Dodgers......Jesus Christ.
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Then he left said 13th man in to hit. And even after the Cardinals took the lead he went and brought up the OTHER most recent minor league callup, Webb, instead of Miller - our $12 million lefty. I went from frustrated to Shildt's inaction to bemused by his complete ambivalence. I've never seen a manager just say "eh, **** it" even when his team keeps battling back. The Dodgers have done absolutely everything in their power to give the Cardinals this game despite the Cardinals having absolutely no urgency in trying to take it. |
And now your catcher is getting breaks when balls rocket back to him from the backstop and STILL throwing the ball 15 feet wide of 3b. He had Martinez by 6-8 feet if he'd have just thrown the ball somewhere in the vicinity of the bag.
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I think the Dodgers are just wanting to get the hell out of town. Cards have scored 11 runs without hitting a HR.
Walks, errors, wild pitches, you name it. |
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And that's a winner. For now, anyway, they're tied for first.
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$30 million worth of benched corner OFer and the team got better for it. {sigh} |
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Siegrist went to the Pirates and Phillies, didn't he? Then I think he refused to report to the minors last spring and that was that. Haven't heard from him in awhile. Maness is the exact kind of fungible rag-arm that I'd throw out there as often as possible while he's effective knowing full well I'm gonna burn him up because who cares? The league's gonna figure him out anyway and there are a dozen guys just like him in AAA. Gant is like that for me right now. I'd pitch him as often as I needed to while he's getting guys out. Because I'd be surprised if he's in the league in 3 years anyway; guys that are fringy relievers with no real projectability just stop getting guys out one day and that's that. So while they're getting guys out, use 'em. Thoroughbreds like Siegrist and Rosenthal, though (and now Hicks)....damn I hate what we did to those guys. |
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Eleven runs with two extra base hits. Makes sense.
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Got called into work early and missed the game :( that was my only plans for yesterday.
Oh well. Good sweep! |
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Still don’t think we win shit in the playoffs but after missing the playoffs 3 straight years I’m sticking with my preseason pick of the 2nd WC. I like these recent games better than seeing series’s like the Milwaukee one. :) |
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Lest we forget that Dewitt paid $150 million for the Cardinals. They sold the parking garages for $75 million. So.........they bought the Cardinals in the mid 90's for $75 million. Current value in 2019 according to Forbes is $2.1 BILLION. |
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