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So no, I did not underrate where they would stand in the Cardinals pecking order. Even if they were 2 and 4 as you claim, you still aren't getting Soto without giving up your best. No team is. |
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With Kiley McDaniel and Kevin Goldstein moving on, main Fangraphs prospect evaluator Eric Longenhagen has minor league experience with Lehigh Valley, not with a MLB scouting department. He's great at what he does, I will admit that. Baseball America has had John Manuel, Chris Kline and Josh Boyd move onto baseball ops. Kline and Boyd are scouting directors for two teams. I should have mentioned this earlier, the Cardinals ARE the fit for the Nationals. There might not be another franchise that can match their talent that's in on Soto. Maybe the Dodgers but it's not like there's a can't miss headliner with Cartaya, Pages, Miller and Vargas. Cartaya is the closest thing and he comes with risk by nature of being a catcher. Cardinals submit without Walker in a text. Rizzo replies "We're going to need Walker to do this." Cardinals counter with Walker and one of Yepez/Burleson/Liberatore not included in some proposal. It's not that big of a deal as you make it because the Nationals know the Cardinals have the goods. |
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The Cardinals are only THE fit if you are one of those guys that believes Carlson would still be looked at like a 60FV prospect instead of a guy with over 1000 PA's in the majors that looks like a merely average player/borderline platoon player with some of the worst hard contact and barrel numbers in the league that's getting worse every season. The Padres can offer more than the Cardinals. The Yankees can offer more than the Cardinals. The Rays can offer more than the Cardinals. The Giants can offer more than the Cardinals. The Dodgers can offer more than the Cardinals. And while I dont think the Nationals would trade him to the Mets, they could offer more than the Cardinals. The Blue Jays can offer more than the Cardinals. Now... if the Nationals insist on a team taking on a bad contract while also giving up their best prospects you can probably scratch off half of those teams and only leave the Yankees, Dodgers, and maybe the Giants. The Cardinals could do it but they have shown absolutely no willingness to take on money and then dish out the kind of money it would take to extend Soto in this century, so asking them to give up the pool of prospects it would take seems far fetched, imo. EDIT: Might as well add the Red Sox to the list of teams that could offer more than the Cardinals too. It's the complete opposite move from the direction they have been taking, but its Juan Soto and they also have the financial means to lock him up long term. |
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Seems a bit steep.
Carlson is a JAG, imo, at least so far. But he still has 4 years of control and if hes going to get you right around the average WAR for an everyday player you can probably pencil in 10 WAR for the remaining 4+ years of control. And if I look at Happ who is probably going to be around $21M in total arbitration money, Carlson will make a little bit more and probably be around $25M til he hits his FA years. That still leaves Carlson at like $30-40M in surplus, depending on whatever you value WAR at. Carlson + Walker probably allows you to start going further down the prospect list and filling in the rest with the Burleson's and McGreevy's of the system. I think Carlson + Walker + someone like Tink Hence would be pretty comparable to the top 3 the Marlins got for Cabrera. Then just fill in the rest with whatever lower level A ballers get the job done. I just dont know if the Nationals would be interested in Carlson since his clock has already started and he's only got 1 pre arb year left. |
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I think the reason that deal is that heavy is that Corbin's not included in it. But if, as is rumored, the Mets are said to be making a hard push to drive the price up (even if the Nats won't deal him in the division) and the Cardinals have that offer on their desk right this very second, I think I'd click accept. Especially if there's a negotiation window and they can confirm that an extension will get done. Carlson proving himself capable of playing a plus CF is a massive boost to his trade value, though. And his value to the Cardinals. While I think he's been very disappointing offensively, if he's a plus CF, he has a 2 WAR baseline. And the swing IS there. The approach IS there. It's just something in his timing or pitch recognition that's keeping him from being a damn good player. There's a lot of talent in there. If the Cardinals can hold onto him somehow and effectively use him to replace Bader in CF, then they won't have to extend Bader into some pretty iffy years when his deal expires in 2024 and he's due for an extension that starts at 30 yrs old. I hate hate HATE the idea of losing Winn, but some folks don't think his bat will ever be an asset at the MLB level. If giving up Winn allows us to hold Carlson as the long-term CF with Soto in RF (TON in LF unless he's a flash in the pan, in which case I think I'd put Gorman out there with Donovan at 2b) then it's a bullet I'd take. Just looking at Cardinals social media, too many Cardinals fans do not understand just how stupid good Juan Soto is. They're driving me completely insane. |
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Liberatore is looking more and more like a 4/5 type. McGreevy is probably the same. |
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Cabrera got back the top 3 of the Tigers system and I dont recall where Maybin and Miller were ranked but I've read they were both thought of in that top 20 prospect range and then De La Cruz was throwing 100 mph. Hence is 19 and is throwing mid 90's with a feel for pitching as he's walking less than 3 per 9 in A ball. If I'm someone looking at pitching from the Cardinals he's a guy I'm looking at. |
And man, I am TIRED of Cardinals fans online being worried about spending Bill Dewitt's money.
Cardinals payroll has gone DOWN since 2018 as revenues have continued to climb. DeWitt is sitting on 2 billion in franchise equity. This is a team that should be sitting in the 6-8 range for overall payroll and not 12-15. By my math that is about $30-40 million in 'dry powder'. If DeWitt has, behind the scenes, advised Mozeliak that his expenditures on washed up has-beens has not given him the confidence to expand payroll...well I guess he should probably fire John Mozeliak, but I digress. If that is the case, Soto is the kind of player you unquestionably and without hesitation expand payroll to secure. Cardinals fans out there saying "we don't need Soto!" a) Are fools because EVERY team needs a HoF bat. B) Haven't been paying much attention to the OF production of this team this year. C) Need to stop worrying about BDWs pocketbook and start DEMANDING that he open it. When you say dumb shit like "Spend Soto's money to build up the bullpen and starting rotation" you're giving him the opening to do exactly what he's doing. No, you don't spend Soto's money to build up the pitching staff. You spend Soto's money on Soto. Then you spend Bill DeWitt's money on the damn pitching staff. And let him know that if he doesn't spend it on the team, he's going to be essentially spending it on empty seats as ticket revenues decline. He HAS to be willing to give back to this ballclub and if he's not going to do it for the best young lefty since Ted !@#$ing Williams, he shouldn't own one of baseballs marquee franchises anymore. |
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Ugh. That would sting biggly. And who the hell plays CF in 2 years? Maybe. Probably. If it's on my desk I don't know how I could write a mock lineup with Goldy - Soto - Arenado at 2-3-4 and not pull that trigger. That's getting back to the MV3 heydays of Pujols - Edmonds - Rolen. I don't think I'm willing to take Corbin back in that deal. (I'm lying. I'd move heaven and earth and sell my organs to get Soto on this team) |
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Which is why I just do not understand the 'we don't need Soto crowd...' |
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YOU GO TO HELL AND YOU DIE!!!
$26 million/yr for the entire prime of a HoF player....{shakes head} |
So Bader and or O'Neill have no value to the Nationals? I'd rather have Carlson play CF and Soto in right.
You keep them where is Yepez or the next outfielder going to play? |
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Why does Carlson with 3 years of service left have so much more value than Bader/O'Neill with 2 years left? |
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It's simple math for why he is so much more valuable than someone with less control. For one he's just a better major league bet than those 2 and he's got more years of being paid less than his market value. Bader and O'neill don't even have half the trade value of Carlson. 2 players: A) 2 WAR a year under control for 2 years making ~$15M over his final 2 years of arbitration. B) 2 WAR a year under control for 4 years, on the same pay scale as player A, making ~$20M over his final 4 years of control. Say you value WAR at the $6M DJ brought up earlier. Player A is going to be worth ~$24M, minus his $15M his surplus value is $9M. Player B is the exact same value per year but worth $48M, minus his $20M his surplus value is $28M. Years of control is huge when it comes to a players worth. EDIT: And Bader actually only has 1 more year of control so there's no ****ing shot they are interested in that. O'Neill is another 2022 season away from being a non-tender. He'll have 3 replacement level seasons after this year. You probably flip him the $5M or w/e he'll get in arb for next year and take a shot he rebounds, but if it's another injury plagued season with 0 impact on the field there's no shot he makes it to arb 3. Their trade values are probably not far off from jack and shit. |
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Yepez is a role player on a champion. The ‘next’ outfielder is years away if Walker is part of the deal. We need to stop overvaluing ‘our’ guys. This team couldn’t score to save its life for weeks despite MVP play from 2 guys. Why? Because this outfield that ‘doesn’t need’ Juan Soto has been lousy. Because Yepez is a forgettable, defensively limited bench player who’s size rarely translates into game power - he’s Jose Martinez at his absolute peak. Gorman is a mistake hitter - execute and he’s out. There are no ‘whatabouts’ here. |
DJ heard an interesting radio interview this afternoon on Springfield radio. Had a former MLB scout and summer league coach on - he said teams going all college route in the draft has to do with a) analytics - hs and juco guys don't have the computer numbers b) Minors being shrunk down to 4 teams essentially - they want more ready to go players.
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Always trade for a HOF. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
At the game in Cincinnati now. Wainwright is cursed against the Reds.
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Mets are out on the Soto sweepstakes?
MLB trade deadline: Mets acquire Daniel Vogelbach from Pirates in exchange for Colin Holderman |
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It would be like the Cardinals trading Pujols to the Cubs 3 years before his deal was up. Thats Babe Ruth to the Yankees level shit. |
I’m cursed. 1-3 so far this season in games I’ve been to. Two at Wrigley, one at Fenway, and tonight in Cincinnati.
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Watch the Mariners swoop in and get Soto with a package starting with Marte and Kirby. They are all of a sudden in a playoff spot and have a no ****s given PoBO. Marte is one of the best prospects in the game and Kirby is going to probably be shut down soon as hes reaching his innings limit so he doesnt really figure to help much in the playoffs.
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Walker is a better prospect than Marte by a fair amount (still don’t think the lists have given due weight to struggles from him or Luciano this year while slow-playing someone like Ezequiel Tovar - these guys aren’t above biases and echo chambers). Kirby keeps demonstrating that he needs more life on his fastball and for the love of all things holy he has GOT to expand his zone. Guy has impeccable control and seems to be more concerned with not walking people than he is executing a quality pitch at times. If he’s at 3 balls, he’s going to pipe you one. First pitch is almost certainly a strike so ambush him. He is in the zone so often that he makes ABs too easy. And he’s a hair older than most realize as well. I do like him and think he has as high a floor as you’ll see among SPs. But I’m starting to wonder if that fastball, velocity be damned, may limit his ceiling. |
Is Marte struggling though? He's 20 in high-A with a 130 wRC+. His average is somewhat low, but hes only striking out at 21% and walking at 11%. Given hes only 20 I don't really see that as struggling.
Walker is certainly ranked higher on every board I've seen, but I also wonder when his 80 grade game and raw power is going to start showing up. |
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I never argued that Walker isn't a top prospect. He's got 80 grade power but he's not showing it yet. He's still young at 20 and it could come, it could also not come and his projected power is one of the big reasons he's ranked so high. That's why he is a prospect. Do you think Walker is some god among prospects here? There are multiple teams out there with a Walker level prospect at the top of their lists. We aren't talking about Guererro Jr. level guys here. Walker has questions just like all of the questions DJ just brought up about other teams top guys. Again... prospects. And there is a very valid argument to be made that a combo of Kirby + Marte is a better conversation starter than Carlson + Walker. The Mariners also have a bunch of very interesting guys that can be thrown into a deal with those 2. They could throw in another former top prospect, though struggling, in Kelenic and a guy that I would really like to see the Cubs target in a Contreras deal in Ford. With Dipoto calling the shots over there, I think the Mariners are a pretty solid contender to land Soto, if they wanted to seriously go after him. |
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Marte and Kirby might top Walker and Carlson (might, depending on how you view Kirby vs. Carlson), but Walker would top Marte on his own. There are maybe 8-10 prospects on the same level as Walker right now. He’s showing up in the top 10 consistently on midseason lists and ranks in the top 5 on some of those. 1/3 or less teams can start with player 1 and match the Cardinal top/first chip. |
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There are 15 60FV prospects on FG's board with Walker (8) and Marte (13) in that group. |
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I’d value Walker a bit higher than Marte, primarily because he’s closer to the bigs and his offensive profile is more likely to succeed, IMO. He makes more contact and controls the strike zone better from what I’ve seen and from what scouts say. Marte also plays SS which adds some defensive value for him. |
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But you are saying nothing that hasn't already been said. The argument isnt Walker vs Marte. It's Carlson + Walker vs Kirby + Marte. Those 2 players from each team represent what I believe to be the 2 best "prospects" to start a conversation for Soto from their respective teams. I dont see how either team gets Soto without those guys leading the return. If they did get Soto without both of those players in the return then the first order of business for the new Nationals owner is to fire Rizzo. I found a list of BA's top 100 from 2007 to see what it took to get Cabrera and Maybin was ranked 6 and Miller was 10 and De La Cruz was throwing 100 mph but wasn't in the top 100. No team can match the rankings of Maybin and Miller, Arizona and Baltimore come the closest if they could trade their 2022 first round picks but they wouldn't do it in the first place, so insert Kirby and Carlson as the best controlled "prospects" on the major league team and probably another back end of the top 100/just missed guy with a couple 40-45FV fillers lower in the system. |
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He hit a line drive double at 118 mph some weeks back. He mashed a ball out of the stadium into LF shortly thereafter. The raw power is absolutely 80 grade. Game power - yeah, it's absolutely a question. But everything on his dash board looks really good. 20 years on in AA (as opposed to Marte in A+) and in his first lap of the league he has almost identical approach stats while further demonstrating his athleticism and showing that perhaps he's capable of staying at 3b longer than anyone expected. And in a vacuum I wouldn't say that Marte is 'struggling' but he got a cup of coffee at A+ last year and is sitting at largely the same sort productivity and performance he demonstrated at A ball last year. I worry when I see a guy appear to plateau a bit. It doesn't mean his timeline and development will stall - it means the learning curve (and thus the long-term ceiling and/or aging curve) will be a little bit different. Guys who make the majors at 21 simply have different careers/curves (over large numbers) than those that do it at 23, who are different than 25, etc... If I have two similarly situated players, both are 20 years old and one is showing development in AA during his first turn there, the other is looking largely stable in A+, the former is going to turn my head more. It just means different curves over the course of his career. |
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">As I said on <a href="https://twitter.com/FS1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FS1</a>, multiple clubs saying Nats’ ask for Soto is 4 to 5 top youngsters, combo of prospects and major leaguers with low service time. Ten days from deadline, Nats aren’t negotiating, one exec says. A team either shows willingness to meet price, or Nats move on.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1550927999964393472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 23, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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When you have a generational talent, you set your terms and wait for someone to meet them. Or you hold the guy and maybe it improves the sale price for the Lerners and the new owner pays up to keep him. There's no upshot to the Nationals negotiating here. Walker, Gorman, Carlson, McGreevy, Liberatore is a massive price to pay, but it's 5 young players with lots of control. You have 3 guys with big league experience, 2 of whom would still be considered 'prospects' based on how you set your sliders. And 2 'pure' prospects, one of whom is a top shelf talent and the other a high pedigreed guy and a top 100 prospect in his own right. If that's the price they name, I pay it. Donovan plays 2b, Soto plays RF. I guess O'Neill plays CF w/ Yepez (blech) in LF unless/until Burleson takes the job from him. Hell, call up DeJong to see if the hot hitting in Memphis is real and put Edman back at 2b w/ Donovan in LF if need be. The pieces exist to pay a heavy price and still be better for it. Stop jerking off and get it done. |
Could also see the Padres meeting that demand.
CJ Abrams is sitting behind Tatis. They seem uninterested in giving Campusano a legitimate look in the majors and he crushing AAA right now. Add in Hassell and Wood. They are just missing the pitching prospects, but they have a log jam of guys in the majors so would they give up Gore? That's 2 MLB youngsters, 1 prospect that's seen a little action in the majors, and 2 true prospects. And like Dipoto, Preller aint afraid to start slinging names around. |
Abrams and Gore are why you sometimes trade guys when they're killing it at AAA.
Abrams just hasn't found traction at the big league level. And Gore seems to have come backwards quite a bit. I really do like Hassell, though. Good pure hitter (someone I was saying we should trade Flaherty for 2 years ago, when Flaherty had value and nobody knew who Hassell was yet). Campusano is a nice prospect - I have no real knowledge of Wood. 2 years ago I think that's a damn strong package. I wonder now if the shine has come off Abrams and perhaps Gore, though. |
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The biggest problem I see for them is the money. They've been trying like hell to dump Hosmer and it was actually pretty close to happening with the Cubs last trade deadline and if they did give up that package they have no one left to sell with Hosmer. Then again, money is the same problem I see with the Cardinals. Not because the Cardinals cant afford it, but because they have seemed unwilling to spend it for decades, unless you are talking about overpaying for the twilight years of career Cardinals. |
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Gore's stuff just doesn't look like it did when he was a hot shit prospect. And Abrams just doesn't have the build for the sort of game power he was demonstrating in AAA (where numbers have been sketchy the last few years). Especially when you consider the sample sizes - he just flat hasn't played much. That said, I still like Abrams, just not as the kind of player the prospect hounds are suggesting. I think he should be a leadoff hitting CFer. A year or two ago he was a 5-tool prospect and future superstar 3 hitter w/ 25/25 skills in the making. I didn't see it then - I definitely don't see it now. |
Yankees out?
The Yankees have emerged as “serious contenders” for Royals LF Andrew Benintendi, per source. |
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They understand that Carpenter isn’t gonna stay this hot, the same as all of us. Benintendi would essentially replace Gallo unless a Soto trade followed, then he’d replace Hicks. Stanton can be a full-time DH as well if necessary. They have a LOT of old dudes who need time off. They can make both deals work. |
God I hate the Yankees but at least they are willing to go all in.
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This is circulating on Twitter. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...0578d31bd5.jpg Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
Torres has as much control left as Soto. That doesnt mesh with the report Rosenthal put out yesterday. They are trading Soto because he doesn't fit into their next competitive window and if he doesn't fit into their next window then Torres sure as shit doesnt.
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Well, Arenado and Goldschmidt won’t be in Toronto.
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Canada is so gay
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Edit: Looked it up. That’s not a very team oriented approach. Mahomes and Kelce rallied the team and everyone got vaccinated so no one missed games and hurt the team. Except Buttkicker of course. Regardless of their personal views, which they have every right to follow, what does this do to the team? Reflect on their leadership? |
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That’s just the same sort of fan speculation I was doing. |
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It isn't? Somebody should tell the best tennis player in the world then so he can enter the country. Maybe I was also dreaming all my friends and family in Canada having to prove their vaccine status to get in to the US right now too. |
Yup, it is.
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Of course the policy makes no sense whatsoever. |
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I went in May/June. I had to be vaccinated to enter the country or be subject to a 14 day quarantine. Even then, I was still “randomly” selected for testing and if I tested positive, I would have had to quarantine in Quebec. U.S. policy still is crazy, too. |
Uh oh...
Jasson Dominguez and Trey Sweeney just got pulled from their Yankees games, Sweeney was working on hitting for the cycle. |
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Feels more like a Castillo deal... |
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No surprise but Matz out for the year with an MCL.
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Cardinals are in DC this weekend. Sure would be an easy transition for Soto.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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https://nypost.com/2022/07/24/cardin...e-sweepstakes/
Not that it means anything at all but the NY Post seems to think the Cards are the front runners. |
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Its basically just a list of teams that can possibly swing the deal and for whatever reason they put Cardinals in the title. There's another article going around that supposedly asked 17 MLB executives who they believed were the top landing spots and the list is like 13 teams long with the Padres and Dodgers as the highest responses with 8 and 7 votes. Cardinals and Mets had 3 votes. Bunch of other teams had a random number of responses. In other words, no one has heard a ****ing thing about anything legit and its all just speculative click bait bullshit. |
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Extremely aggressive GM and they have some very nice pieces. Hassell would be pretty near Walker in terms of long-term upside. They'd need to believe that Campusano can play 1b, though - they have Ruiz and I think he's a better defender. Can Campusano's bat profile at 1b? As a legitimate asset, I mean; not a placeholder. What would have to swing it is almost certainly Abrams and Gore. The Nationals would have to have faith in those guys previous status as being more representative of who they can be. And if they do - Abrams, Gore, Hassell and Campusano would be a REALLY tough package to top. But if Abrams and Gore don't trip their trigger, I don't see anyone else in that system that's going to turn anyone's head. |
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I've heard that at least 2 potential buyers would prefer to buy the team with Soto. |
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His value will be diminished somewhat by the lack of a post-season run, but I really think most teams looking to acquire him are doing so with an eye on the next decade+ rather than just his team control years. It does seem that the Lerners would be wise to let the owernship situation play it. It could potentially cost them tens of millions (hundreds?) if they play it wrong. |
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Since Brennen Davis may/may not have an actual spine (and I've never thought he was equal to the prospect hype anyway). I know y'all are fond of Pete Crow-Armstrong but...I mean...c'mon. |
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That's...not ideal for the Padres. Then again, like I said last week, Gore's been backing up for a bit now. Very little surprise that there's an injury at the source. |
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