| DJ's left nut |
12-07-2015 01:57 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy
(Post 11936189)
Have to wait for Duncan to chime in but from what I seen at times he wasnt even close to the zone so he wound get into a lot of 3-2 counts. I recall it being the more guys taking a pitch a foot outside the zone that forced those counts more so than guys fouling off a lot pitches.
Thats why I think hes pretty much the same guy as a starter or in the pen. If you arent in or around the zone stuff playing up in the pen doesn't mean muchm
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True.
If he's just erratic as shit, a move to the 'pen isn't likely to make him appreciably better. There's really no hiding a lack of command. If your biomechanics just won't allow you to repeat your delivery, you're sunk regardless of the role you're in.
If you're over 4 pitches/PA with a K rate below 9, you're in a tough spot as a reliever. If it's below 8 you're probably not very good and below 7 puts you in a group you do not want to be in. Duffy's over 4 and his K/9 is at 6.72. Some guys can survive that way but it's obviously not ideal (and, IMO, not sustainable).
Just looking at rates, looks like he's out of the zone a little more often than most (48.5% vs. about 50% average). His first pitch strike rates are also a little down (57 vs. 59). Guys do tend to swing at him a little more than average (48 vs. 46) and when they do, they tend to make more contact (82% vs 80%).
It seems to be a combination of things. He's not terribly good at fooling batters (slightly below average at getting guys to chase), not good at getting them to miss and not good at getting into favorable counts. He doesn't appear to be all over the place, but his contact rates don't profile as someone that would dominate even if he pounded the zone.
It could be that the low-quality breaking ball has him nibbling because he knows he can't attack guys and get them out (thus hurting his control numbers) or it could be that his command gets him into hitters counts where hitters know they can sit on a single pitch and drive it.
I tell ya, looking at his Pitch F/X it looks like about what I thought I saw w/r/t to his changeup - the thing doesn't drop at all. It's damn hard to fool guys with your change on just velocity alone. If you're doing that with no drop, you need a solid 10 mph of separation. He's sitting right at that mark and that's why it's rating average, but I really do think it'd be interesting to see him experiment with a split change to neutralize righties better. |
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